1967 - The Quiet Before the Storm
The outbreak of the American Cultural Revolution proved groundbreaking not only for the AUSS, but also for the world around it. Despite its perceived weakness among some, Red America with its growing fleet, arsenal of atomic weapons and desire to spread its form of revolution outwards had begun to be regarded with a considerable amount of dread by many analyst circles. After all fear of American retaliation had driven the British guided Oslo Pact into détente with Mitteleuropa and American interference in Africa had dragged the Germans back into the Dark Continent in force, despite the nominal autonomy of its dependencies. Thus it goes without saying that something of a collective sense of relief was felt by the well groomed officials in the grand offices worldwide. There were of course worries, particularly concerning the control of those atomic weapons, however they were mostly assuaged by reports from various intelligence sources, which seemed to suggest that those were safe and that the American Chairman had been convinced by the Worker's Army to deter Red Guard attempt to seize them. Even though the situation could change at the drop of a hat, it seemed enough to dispel the fears of all, but the most vehemently anti-Syndcalist of thinkers. Yet, although the Red Giant seemed to have fallen at the hurdles, guiding the ship of state is a marathon not a sprint and the American turn inwards represented the disappearance of just one of the rivals the great powers had. Following Red August, papers across Europe began to increasingly question the current order as well as relations between the Big Four. The journalists or the more hawkish individuals for whom they were acting as mouthpieces, in Britain and Russia were especially negatively minded towards the German position, with some journalists even applying the title of 'Sick Man of Europe' to the Kaiserreich. Their reports about German weakness were tinged with a note of truth of course, as Germany had been facing increasing instability not only within Mitteleuropa, but also within itself. Although at least in Russia it is probably correct to guess that these articles were likely tinged with at least a degree of irony, as the journalists writing them were well aware by that point of the nigh endemic protests across Russian university campuses calling for among other things an end to the junta and a restoration of true representative government under Tsar Vladimir III.
Although the Russian government campaigns focused on the 'sistema', anti-junta sentiments
were common among much of the youth, even among the younger rank and file.
Indeed, it was not through the international squabbling that gripped the other great powers following the American turn inwards by which the rest of the world would truly remember the effects of the instability gripping North America, but through what it inspired. The 1960s had been a decade of instability despite hopes otherwise, as nations across the world, both big and small, had wrestled not only with their international rivals, but with an increasingly restive student population. Although it is somewhat misleading to imply that the Cultural Revolution was the main driving force behind the events of 1968-69, it is very likely that had Browder began a purge through any other means that the following events would have played out very differently. Nevertheless by the events of Red August as revolutionary fervour and the terror that accompanied it swept across the country, the Browderite Red Guards had become a mass movement of unparalleled reach, growing ever stronger with the shuttering of every subsequent place of education for an indefinite period. However unlike the short-lived fears of American atomic arms falling into the wrong hands, the threat of the American situation spreading or inspiring the domestic student movements was considered unlikely or in some cases even dismissed outright. Many considered the events in America a freak circumstance as well as the result of strong government support, rather than anything that could be repeated outright. These expectations were subsequently revised, at least in intelligence offices, to being unrepeatable in non-Syndicalists states following reports from the Oslo Pact concerning the expulsion of all American students in the country as well as the severing of the last ties remaining between the former Atlantic Treaty Organisation states on the 4th of October. While official reasoning for the decision proved unsurprisingly round and politically correct, it soon became clear to some intelligence agencies that the reasons had to do with proliferation of the Red Guard ideology by American students and an incident or two it had caused in northern England. The spread of groups inspired by Red Guards to the continent later in the year would finally begin to put to rest, the alleged impossibility of the movement to spread outside of America states. These revelations were taken with little enthusiasm in Tokyo, already struggling with its own student unrest. Whilst seemingly a world and an ocean away groups inspired by the Red Guards would begin to take root among the students movement in universities across the Japanese Empire in late 1967. The ideology espoused by the Guards groups would prove to resonate especially strongly in the Korean peninsula, where the American ideology seemed to offer a way out of the intellectual dead end that Korean nationalism had reached following its defeats in the field and betrayal at the hand of its supposed allies. Fortuitously for the Japanese government, the Red Guards would eventually also spread to China, where they would sow division in the ranks of the Republican rebels in the Qing territory as well as threaten the stability of the Nationalist government in Guangzhou. However that would prove little comfort for the Japanese soldiers on, above or under the ground in Northern China or Manchuria.
The rapid spread of the Browderite Red Guard ideology among disaffected Korean youths provided the
colonial government with quite the bother, as attacks against institutions once again began to rise.
Amid all this the Satō cabinet continued charting its course for a new Japan. The disappearance of the American threat proved as good an excuse to cut the down on naval spending just as the American surge to power following the Second Mexican-American War had proven to engorge it. Thus despite the de facto state of war in China, the cabinet began to chart a course to limit the Navy, much to the anger of a number of hawk. Although, it would prove unable to cancel the shipbuilding contracts, partially due to many of the contracts being already complete or located in the shipyards of Yamaguchi - Satō's district, the cabinet would reach a compromise with the Navy through the creation of a reserve fleet, which would become the home to a number of older ships as well as some fresh from the dockyards. This as well as Satō's bluff in forcing through the environmental laws had lead to a significant rise of anti-Satō feelings within the party whilst bolstering public opinion of him. In closed circles some younger Diet members even began to discuss the need for a vote of no confidence to remind the Prime Minister, where the real power lay and force him back to achieve his way through compromise not threats. The 66 year-old Prime Minister was however well versed in the halls of power by this point and managed to largely cut off any real threats to his position. The cooperation of his former rivals Ōhira and Maeo, had greatly contributed to his continued control of the party as both remembered and made sure to on occasion remind Satō of the power sharing agreement that his older brother Kishi had negotiated. Satō's time was however running out with elections scheduled for February of 1969 and his likely resignation to take place near the end of 1968. Yet having attained power Satō proved so reluctant to relinquish it as people close to him would later admit. Thus in October Satō began to put into work a scheme to avoid relinquishing power fully to his foes, whilst also keeping appearance of maintaining his promise to them. These efforts would later become known as the Great Democratisation Debate.
Although officially against the localists, the Prime Minister still saw to it
that his constituents and those of his allies were well looked after.
The election of the head of the Rikken Seiyūkai, and thus Prime Minister, had long been a 'smoke filled room' affair with party leaders being elected in offices through deals between faction leaders that would thus acquire power for their faction should their favoured candidate win. The system, although having benefited Satō himself, was opaque to an extreme degree and indeed had become the target of criticism among the party membership, the press as well as some lawmakers. Having already acquired the image of a reformer through the environmental laws as well as the ongoing medical internship reforms, Satō would embark on the most major reform of his career. Unlike the Diet, where party members could be cowed by the threat of a snap election, reforms to the party itself were a more complex affair. While Satō had the support of much of the rank and file as well as his own faction and a number of localist Diet members, who stood to gain the most through their strong control and support in their districts, the rest of the party leadership, both the other liberals under Ōhira and Maeo as well as the fractured conservative groups, proved reluctant to accept outright elections of the party leader by membership ballot rightfully seeing it as a threat to their own power. The Prime Minister however proved reluctant in accepting the set backs and continued working behind the backs of other senior party leaders inviting particularly the ire of the conservatives. However by late December Satō seemed sure in his attempt to reform the party leadership having made some concessions to gain the support of smaller factions as well as having managed to successfully drive a wedge driven between Ōhira and Maeo, both of whom had become increasingly suspicious of one another after the deal negotiated by Kishi. The concessions saw a weakening of the full primary system proposed by Satō initially for determining the party leader. Whilst under the new system factions would still have the final say in electing the Prime Minister, the basis for determining potential candidates was handed to the wider party membership, who would be able to vote for their favoured candidates and for the first time feel truly included in the determining the Prime Minister, beyond just voting for the party on election day.
The results of the Great Democratisation Debate would have far reaching consequences for the 1932 System.
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September
September 1 - The Velvet Underground, headliners at the 12th Nichigeki Western Carnival in Tokyo request asylum in Japan in fear of repercussions when returning to the AUSS.
September 3 - All road traffic in Sweden switches from left-hand traffic pattern to right-hand traffic, at 05:00 local time.
September 18 - Anti-war protestors clash with police at Haneda airport in an attempt to foil a planned visit to Australia by Prime Minister Satō, but are pushed back.
September 25 - The cargo schooner SS Olga, home to the pirate radio Nord is detained by the British Republican Navy for violation of the Marine Broadcasting Offences Act causing a diplomatic row between Germany and the Union of Britain.
Although Prime Minister Satō's visit to Australia was primarily related to official affairs, his Australian
hosts wasted no time in buttering up the known rake with a visit to the Miss International competition.
October
October 7 – The Coordination Council of the Oslo Pact declares that it is ending all existing exchange programs with the AUSS and that all American students still in any of the the states belonging to the Pact are required to depart before the end of October.
October 17 - The American government announces the death of Edward Windsor at his home in Edmonton. Although official reports say that the former British King died of cancer, many suspect that he fell victim to the Red Guards.
October 18 - The visit of Australian model Jean Shrimpton to Japan, marks the start of the miniskirt boom in the country.
October 23 – Napoleon VI is detained whilst attempting to enter Andorra to "visit his Andorran subjects".
Upon his return to Switzerland the 'Emperor of the French' recounted that despite the arrest the Andorran
authorities treated him well and the public had welcomed him as the first French ruler to visit the country.
November
November 1 - Settlement of land reclaimed from Lake Hachirogata, formerly the second largest lake in Japan after Lake Biwa, for farming purposes begins.
November 11 - Yui Chunoshin, a member of the Japanese Esperanto Institute, commits suicide by self-immolation near the Office of the Prime Minister in protest against the China War.
November 17 - Acting on optimistic reports he was given on Japanese Prime Minister Satō Eisaku announces to the Japanese public in a radio interview that, while much remains to be done in China, that the Japanese Army has begun to turn the tide and is inflicting greater casualties than it is sustaining.
November 26 - The Australian Liberal Government is re-elected, although with reduced majority. The reduced majority is a welcomed although somewhat bitter result for the party as many had still feared a more significant loss and even need for a coalition despite the return of Tasmania and the collapse of the Labor Party after the death of Calwell.
Imperial Army troops on parade prior to deployment in China. The seemingly neverending war
had begun to take quite the toll on the morale not only among the public, but the Army itself.
December
December 3 – Christiaan Barnard carries out the world's first heart transplant at Groote Schuur Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa.
December 4 - Recent geologic discoveries lead to increased funding for the Antarctic expeditions by MITI, which is hoping to exploit Antarctic resources for Japanese benefit.
December 17 – Harold Holt, the Prime Minister of Australia, disappears when swimming at Cheviot Beach, 60 km from Melbourne. He is replaced as leader by Education Minister John Gorton.
December 26 - Browderite supporters, with the aid of local Red Guards, overthrow the municipal government of Montreal proclaiming the creation of the Commune of Montreal.
Even though the Commune proved shortlived, it represented an important
turning point for turning the Cultural Revolution into an institutional force.
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Roight, seeing that we have arrived at the end of 1967, I think it is only polite to tell you that I will be concluding this AAR with the end of 1969. Now what does this mean for you?
Well, not much. The current bulletpoint Wikipedia approach is going away to return to the format I had before University got in the way. This gives me a bit more leeway to linger on a year to and write about more events in greater depth going onwards, because I feel I'll need it to wrap up the next two years without that thing running in the back of my mind. Before I go onto 1968, I have considered doing another 'The World in Showa' chapter to provide a transition point and maybe one to round it all up set in the 90s or even closer to now, however both of those things are still somewhat open.
Nevertheless, running an AAR has been quite a fun learning experience for me and I do really hope that you have enjoyed it thus far and will also enjoy the conclusion.
Now onto the comments.
1) Have you not taken enough from the Aussies? You cant even let the ALP keep their spelling? Truly the darkest timeline.
2) I get the idea of partering for weapons, but I guess my point is that nuclear weapon supply chains are an odd thing. Once a nation is nuclear mature stopping them making bombs becomes basically impossible.
But there is a point, around where China is RN, where the bombs are still science projects. Each one is a hand crafted artisinal work, the number of people with assembly skills is very low, ability to deploy them even less so (early bombs need a specialized crew to ready them at the front), and most components are custom made single run.
The USA dropped 2 bombs in 45 sure, but I've heard some interesting lectures suggesting that dropping many in '46 would have been a ragged effort, since the program lost people at demobilisation and everything had to be relearned.
The firebrands in Tokyo might be saying that if the go after the infrastructure now, killing some of the specialized staff and blasting apart the refining infrastructure, they might set china back years, and in those years japan can pump out bombs if needed and force china to heel.
That doesnt stop another country shipping in bombs and operations crews to help, but they could do that anyway.
I'm not saying its a good plan, only that the guys advocating it will have some facts on their side. As Health just put it, we are in the first part of the "now or never" window. That ends once a nation has distributed material stockpiles, and industrial weapon design and survivable or distributed delivery systems.
China, with help, could get to that point relatively quickly.
So Japan has to decide if it can live with nuclear china.
if it cant, it needs to talk, or attack, soon.
How does the song go again - "It's so easy when you are evil."
I do agree, hence the point about it being a now or never moment. I would even say that it is a much bigger more now or never moment as far as them having the weapons is concerned because the Chinese, unlike the Americans, won't be hit by demobilisation efforts since the war that the Chinese have developed the weapon for is still being fought. This would mean that the Chinese should be able to go from artisanal atomic weaponry to mass produced ones in a relatively quick pace. This however doesn't solve the entire Chinese problem.
Miniaturisation is after all a rather tricky process and before it is solved the bombers needed to deal with the weapons are quite the thing to observe. Heavy bombers are however something that the current Chinese government, doesn't have access to. Primarily since there has not been a need for planes that big thus the experience in developing them is not there. This can of course change however it takes time, allowing if nothing else, the Japanese to come to terms with needing to tolerate China as more than a player they can wrap around their finger. Whether that can happen is of course another question.
Until then short of loading the bomb onto a destroyer to ram a Japanese carrier group or a truck and driving it into a Japanese encampment, the Chinese having the capacity to produce the bombs on an industrial level still does not release them from the Sword of Damocles. Quite the contrary even, if the firebrands get high enough they might rethink that 'burnt land' part of the sustained bombardment campaign. They might even come to the conclusion that they know where the rebels are getting their arms.
Oh, USSA. Insurgency on the periphery, anarchy in the heartland. Time to funnel some MAJOR CACHES OF ARMS their way and watch the fireworks.
This is America we are talking about. Syndicalist or not, there is still a rifle and a bandolier of grenades behind every blade of grass. Maybe less than before due to disarmament efforts, but even the Soviets struggled with getting weapons out of the hands of the public. In the end an M1903, a Lee-Enfield or Gewehr might be old, but if it has been kept safe and fed with oil, it is still fit for purpose. Provided that there are bullets for it that is
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