The US, should it choose to continue the war cannot out produce all of Europe, Asia and Africa.
Why not? As it was US and Canada produced 2/3 of world's aluminium in 1943. US alone produced more steel than Germany, UK, Japan, Italy and USSR combined. Oil I already mentioned. I think they produced more rubber than rest of the world in 1945 too (synthetics). It's no joke that US was incredible industrial and raw material giant in '40s.
In time (during '50s for example) Axis Eurasia would possibly come around and effectively restructure itself around it's New Order, but US could make itself annoying as hell by then.
They have no access to the Mediterranean meaning Axis could effectively build a ridiculously large fleet there under safety,
Gibraltar is not actually as hermetic as HoI series would have you believe. US considered more heavily armed straits around Japan to be forcable if desired. They could also open a front in North Africa and bomb Italy from there. A relatively forlorn place like that would be difficult for Axis to leverage their numerical superiority.
I'm also not sure Italian yards are all that scary. And I don't think Germany would be willing to throw stuff at Mussolini for free, they would want to build a German navy instead.
The US navy can't be in every theatre at once and if it tried to it's power projection would be limited.
Of course not. On the other hand Japanese and Italian/German navies are so distant you can see any combined actions coming miles afar. If Americans keep naval supremacy for years to come (as I consider likely) the continental powers themselves will be spread out. For example, do you choose to make Ireland, Britain, France, North Africa or whatnot well garrisoned and what will you leave weak? What do you do with the Soviet resistance fighters who still de-facto occupy Siberia and blow the rail line every few weeks?
There is however no scenario where the US manages to counter-attack and win the war I could see.
Agreed. I too don't see any kind of guns-a-blazing landing in fortress Europe. They will operate around the periphery and try to leverage superior naval and air power.
Due to the fact I doubt the US would even want to fight at that point.
IMO, they have to. Too much is at risk for them if they don't.