Settlement Policy

[Chamboozer]

I can't find anything referencing this in the game folders and the in-game description is very vauge. How does this work? Do you simply activate it in a province and wait for the ~50 years until the province converts to your culture, or is there more to it than that?

 

[OrangeYoshi]

	enact_settlement_policy = {
		potential = {
			not = { 
				has_province_modifier = settlement_policy
				has_owner_culture = yes
			}
			has_national_focus = yes
		}
		allow = {
			owner = {
				officials = 3
				colonists = 2
			}
		}
		effect = {
			owner = {
				officials = -3
				colonists = -2
			}
			add_province_modifier = {
				name = "settlement_policy"
				duration = -1
			}
		}
		ai_will_do = {
			factor = 1
			modifier = {
				factor = 0
				infamy = 8
			}
			modifier = {
				factor = 0
				NOT = {
					officials = 3
				}
			}
		}
	}
	
	revoke_settlement_policy = {
		potential = {
			has_province_modifier = settlement_policy
		}
		allow = {}
		effect = {
			remove_province_modifier = settlement_policy
			prestige = -0.15
		}
		ai_will_do = {
			factor = 0
		}
	}

Basically if you leave it there for 50 years, the province will become your culture.

 

[Zakath]

That's all there is to it. It has some penalties while it runs, most notably the increased revolt risk and +0.2 infamy, but other than that just wait.

One annoyance though, if your province assimilates by event the policy keeps running. You have to cancel it manually then, costing you 15 prestige.

 

[Chamboozer]

Thanks for finding that for me, but I don't see any reference to a 50 year runtime in there. Are you certain that's how long it is supposed to last? I've had it running for 75 years with no effect.

 

[Romtos]

50 is only average.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

I think the average is supposed to be 50, not that it ends on 50 every time.

 

[Romtos]

I think the average is supposed to be 50, not that it ends on 50 every time.

I did wonder about the distribution of probability though.
Is it an equal change each year, like missionaries?
Is there a peak in the distribution, and if so,
is it like a Normal distribution, or a linear function?
Or is it an ever increasing probability, with a cumulative change of 50% at 50 years?

So much questions.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

I did wonder about the distribution of probability though.
Is it an equal change each year, like missionaries?
Is there a peak in the distribution, and if so,
is it like a Normal distribution, or a linear function?
Or is it an ever increasing probability, with a cumulative change of 50% at 50 years?

So much questions.

AFAIK, it is just like the other event MTTH's where it is a constant percentage monthly for it to happen.

 

[Chamboozer]

Does moving the National Focus after activating the decision have any effect on the outcome?

 

[parliamentlite]

I've had it going for 150 years in one province in my current game. I'm very frustrated that it's not worked yet. This matches my experience in another game. I think it may need to be buffed a little. I'm curious to hear more observations from other players.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

Does moving the National Focus after activating the decision have any effect on the outcome?

Probably not.

 

[Willem IV]

nothing influences it.

Thus choose the bigger/richer provinces as they don't get our culture the normal way.

 

[Zakath]

nothing influences it.

Thus choose the bigger/richer provinces as they don't get our culture the normal way.

A bit off topic. Did the event for culture spread change? Playing as Byzantium I've had most of the Turkish provinced swap culture before 1470. Only ones which are still Turkish are the three non-core provinces down South East in modern day Turkey.

At the same time, only 1 Bulgarian province has switched culture. Settlement Policy has been a major disappointment in that regard, only converting 1 Bulgarian province and having the one Turkish province I tried to use it in swap culture by event.

On topic again, the 50 year MTTH is simply when it should happen based on probability. It could happen after a month, or it could last from 1399-1821 without swapping. Both are just very unlikely. There's a better explanation of MTTH in the wiki if you're interested in the math for it.

 

[Junuxx]

A bit off topic. Did the event for culture spread change? Playing as Byzantium I've had most of the Turkish provinced swap culture before 1470. Only ones which are still Turkish are the three non-core provinces down South East in modern day Turkey.

At the same time, only 1 Bulgarian province has switched culture..

Ordinary culture change (ie without settlement policy) is 20 times more likely than usual from Turkish to Greek. This was so in IN and hasn't been changed.

 

[Darkrenown]

Thanks for finding that for me, but I don't see any reference to a 50 year runtime in there. Are you certain that's how long it is supposed to last? I've had it running for 75 years with no effect.

He didn't include the actual event:

#Settlement Policy
province_event = {
	id = 9461
	trigger = {
		has_province_modifier = settlement_policy
	}
	mean_time_to_happen = {
		[U]months = 600[/U]
	}
	title = "EVTNAME9461"
	desc = "EVTDESC9461"
	
	option = {
		name = "EVTOPTA9461"
		remove_province_modifier = settlement_policy
		culture = THIS
	}
}

 

[unmerged(128725)]

I did wonder about the distribution of probability though.
Is it an equal change each year, like missionaries?

Yes, equal chance each year. If we take a continuous approximation of time, this means an exponential distribution with mean value T set to 600 months (that is, 50 years). This is the expression of the probability density:

p(t) = (1/T) exp (-t/T)

Of course if time is not continuous we will have a geometric distribution, but the continuous representation is possibly easier to understand, and very close to the discrete one.
The probability of the event "waiting for at least X months" is the following:

exp (-X/T)

meaning roughly a one in three chance to wait more than 50 years.

 

[Musthavename]

Also of note, if it is indeed exponentially distributed (which is a conclusion i'd agree with if I had to say), then if you've waited 50 years, you're no more likely to have the event occur then as if you'd just activated it.

Also Herbert, I believe it should be p(t) = 1/T exp (-t/T) with T the mean.

 

[unmerged(128725)]

Also of note, if it is indeed exponentially distributed (which is a conclusion i'd agree with if I had to say), then if you've waited 50 years, you're no more likely to have the event occur then as if you'd just activated it.

Also Herbert, I believe it should be p(t) = 1/T exp (-t/T) with T the mean.

Thanks, you are right. Corrected.

What you say about the exponential distribution and observation at a certain moment is also true. It helps memorize that exponentials are memoryless random variables, so when you observe it the past becomes irrelevant to determine the future, only the present status is relevant.

 

[Junuxx]

Ah, I had somehow assumed that the MTTH would also be the mode of the distribution. Thanks for clearing that up guys.

 

[Beamed]

Thanks for the trip back down stat class guys.