The 1880s had already been a decade of tremendous technological advancement for Japan, despite her being brought under Russia’s insidious influence once again (Russia sphered Japan again – I doubt any of the technological advancements were due to this, though I’ve heard people suggest you can pick up advancements from your sphere lord).
The most exciting venture in naval architecture in Japanese history was the development of iron steamers during 1885 and 1886. The advancement to steam-powered armored ships was the ultimate sign that Japan was competing on par with the European powers, at sea, if not quite on land yet.
Late in 1885, a conflict between Austria and the North German Federation – a rivalry for leadership of the German peoples which had been brewing for decades – sparked off into a war. Most observers believed it was not Austria’s real intention to go to war, as the North Germans were, at that time, allied with France, Russia, and two of the more powerful lesser German states, which meant Austria began with enemies on three borders.
In recognition of her clear advantage, the North Germans quickly declared their intent to claim Bohemia as her own territory, cleaving it from Austria.
Always brusque, never deferential, the Russians, in 1886, provoked Japan yet again over whaling rights and the capture of Japanese sailors – an old story. Many in the Emperor’s court urged an immediate reaction, but he was both patient and wise, and remained fixed on the timetable of military research which was laid before Japan.
Japan would, at some time in the next decade, throw off her Russian oppressors again. But 1886 was not the right time. Japan was not ready. Time would tell when the right time would be.
However, that was not to say that the Emperor was not mindful of possible military adventurism, even under the watchful eye of the Russians. If Japan were to go to war, what could Russia possibly do? Russia’s naval strength, in the Pacific Ocean, had proved less than concerning, and Japan had held regional naval superiority through two wars.
Repeatedly, the weakness of Spain had come to the attention of the Japanese court. The first time, several years before, a Japanese scouting party had been sent to scout Spain’s only Asian holding, in the Philippines, those islands had been overrun with rebels.
Spain had obviously gotten things in hand since then, but it was clear from the reports of spies that the Spanish people were in deep unrest over the number of wars they had been forced to support, over Spain’s loss of status in the world ((OOC aside: in 1863, Spain was still a Great Power, ranked 8th, with 177 total score, compared at that time to Japan at 134 - MIL score in 1863 was 56 -- in 1881, they were ranked 13th with 385 total score, compared to 10th ranked Japan at 600 - Spain's MIL score in 1881 was 47 -- NOW their MIL score is down to 40 -- substantial and dramatic declines!)).
While Spain had somehow retained control over her Arabian territories through two wars designed to wrest those sandy wastes from her, Egypt was not having so much luck. In 1886, she had found herself at war not only with the Ottoman Turks, but also with the United States, again, which had first claimed the land she needed to construct the Suez Canal, and then sought after the Holy Land in Palestine.
When peace was concluded by the Mamluk rulers of Egypt, however, the USA was cut out – it was the Turks who took control over Palestine. The United States was forced to make do with Asyut, south of Cairo along the Nile River.
And, having a need to vent frustration over the Egyptian campaign, the USA then declared war, once more, upon her southern neighbor, Mexico, with the intent of spreading her territorial control westward, in search of a “manifest destiny” to become a dominant Pacific Ocean power. Japan eyed this move with mixed sentiments – the USA was considered as close to a friend Japan had in the world. But would that friendship withstand rivalry over some of the same sphere of influence?
Late in 1886, the first experimental iron steamer was launched, and began testing. Soon, engineers had designed a class of “ironclads”, such as a few countries around the world already had, and several were already in production for deployment to the Imperial Japanese Navy.
The next step – considered a crucial prerequisite for war with Russia, and perhaps others – was to streamline the army’s decision-making process during wartime, perhaps allowing for more independent commands in the field, absent the heavy hand of higher command. This would result in far better results in battle.
The North Germans, in early 1887, had declared their intention to not only capture Bohemia, but also to become the protector of all German peoples – essentially declaring final victory over Austria in their long rivalry. In November, 1887, Austria finally admitted defeat.
Austria’s defeat was more than total – not only did she lose Bohemia, and all claims for leadership over the minor German powers, but she was forced to come to an internal compromise with her most powerful subject power, which wished no longer to be subject (sort of an internal throwing off of a sphere-master!). The Habsburg Empire of Austria became, instead, the Austrian-Hungarian Federation.
Before the end of 1887, the United States had achieved her own dream of power, extending her reach westward in dramatic fashion, gobbling up California, New Mexico, Arizona and the rest of Texas. It was breathtaking, and signaled a fundamental shift of American power into the Pacific Ocean. Much debate ensued as to what that meant for Japan.
After military reforms had been completed amongst army leadership, in 1888, it was decided that another important step before a final war decision with Russia would have to be breech-loading cannon, which would greatly alter the speed and deployment of artillery in the field.
Even while strategists rushed to adopt key western concepts and technologies in the military arts, some pointed out that Japan still fell far behind in other important military fields. They worried that this would still put Japan at a disadvantage in combat against major European powers. Others insisted that the Japanese spirit would overcome any technological disadvantages during a war the Emperor had declared.
Such wars with major European powers remained on everyone’s mind, as France moved to consolidate her control over Indochina by invading Cambodia.
In the summer of 1888, the Emperor invoked the war plan to act against another European power – the fallen-from-grace empire of Spain, which had recently undergone a revolution, and was now at war with the Netherlands. This was Japan’s opportunity – Japan would act while Spain was distracted.
Another part of the Japanese war plan considered the importance of seizing the northern Philippines for Japan before the Dutch could do the very same. Japan intended to have the island of Luzon for herself, and the Dutch would not expand their own colonial empire to such an important Asian holding.
This was where Japan would demarcate two limits upon European expansionism – Spain would lose, and the Dutch would not expand.