@Wagonlitz: if you are the target of choice of Panzer, who would you like to see lynched?
Well that is the problem. I have to trust that Nautilu and you aren't pulling a ploy, but since there have been no counterclaims and the last PM you posted look more convincing, I believe you guys. That leaves Panzer, jonti, SPLIT and randy. Just picking at random would give a 75% chance of getting a wolf; I want it better though. SPLIT we don't really have anything on, so I throw him away. That leaves three guys. If randy hadn't posted his analysis post earlier today I most certainly would have gone after him; I did feel that his post didn't have the same randyesque
TM as usual, but that could both be because of the lack of evidence and because he is a wolf. I will throw him away also, but I am still keeping an eye on him.
That leaves Panzer and jonti. jonti did make sure that marty remained in the running, but as you pointed out the wolves could have planned to do the vote switch at least ~6.5 hourse before deadline---that was when he voted marty; although vote changes most of the time go through they don't always succeed though, so it would have been safest to get marty out of the running by voting aedan instead---marty and aedan were TIEed at second place at the time.
With regard to Panzer then he did applaud the TIE on day 1. What counts more though is that marty made us remember that Panzer often gets nervous when run up as a wolf. And Panzer has been really fond of mentioning he is a villager all day, before there really was mentioned as a candidate and nobody has mentioned him. Given that almost nobody acknowledges in the thread pre deadline that they are wolves, it is normal to assume that everybody considers themself villagers, so who needs to continuesly state that they are a villager? Wolves do.
Also when digging I found this quote. Notice how marty although he has voted Panzer ends up with three candidates: madchemist who we know is a villager, nautilu who claims JL membership and Panzer. To me that looks exactly like what I did last game: Take two villagers and and packmate and have those names mentioned in the thread. Then proceed to go after the packmate. Also notice marty immediately builds on the case. But it is a weak case (at that time) as marty mentioned in the post where he voted Panzer. Also notice how marty mentionshe wants a TIE---it can only have been a twoway, but he mentions three candidates. It would then be easy later in the day to say that Panzer might have looked nervous, but he doesn't anymore---and actually I don't think Panzer is especially nervous in his vote post---so sinec the two others are better candidates lets TIE them. Also remember that I had gone after both Nautilu and Panzer, so there would likely come attention on Panzer; marty could then potentially cull that attention by being early on Panzer and making weak arguments---people have a tendency to not make new arguments on players who already have arguments---or get goodie points. Also marty did expect to be scanned, which I think was reasonable to expect, since marty is a hard player to read; he therefore often is scanned, so right after a game he won exactly because he wasn't scanned it would be likely that he was scanned early. In that case he was to some degree a dead man walking which makes the analogy to last game better, since I was a dead man walking there and cleared marty through my accusations---marty could very well have been doing the same towards Panzer. Furthermore Panzer was eager to just have the JL mention a name quickly that everybody then voted instead of doing analysis first---that is not very villagery.
In all I think Panzer is more suspicious than jonti, so
Vote Panzer Commader
You know, I'll roll with this for a while.
I'm not sure Panzer is that certain a wolf as Wagonlitz thinks, but we need at least one other person to run up alongside Nautilu. And while the case against him isn't great, we don't really have any information to go on, and he's at least as good a lynch as anyone else (except Nautilu).
Vote Panzer Commader
And we'll see where that goes. Panzer's a good player to put pressure on anyway, as when he's a wolf, he tends to get nervous real fast.
I actually think a tie today, now that we have a free one - and its really our last chance to make one* - might not be a bad idea under the circumstances. Just in case anyone was wondering.
*Although we have a day more if we don't get a wolf today, for obvious reasons it is never a good idea to try and make a tie when the wolves are that close to parity.
A few other posts that were a bit weird, and helped set up the tie:
This was just...dumb. It was 4 minutes before the deadline, and the switch only started about 5 minutes earlier. The whole point of voting switches is to get information on someone else after you've had a tight race. If a vote-switch ends up a bit lopsided, with four freakin' minutes left, it's hardly an issue. Not sure what madchemist was playing at here. I don't remember him bringing up this objection any other time someone's done a vote-switch.
And then this vote, which, despite what Panzer claimed, didn't actually change anything. The vote stayed at 6-5, it merely swapped the players round. This didn't really make much sense to me.
Do I believe they were all in some plot to create a tie? No, but I have a feeling at least one of them might have made an opportunistic vote to try and encourage a tie.
In short, I think Panzer, Madchemist and Nautilu are all decent candidates for today. That's about as much analysis (I hate how overused this word is, but meh) as I can be bothered making about an otherwise normal first day.
I was right, Panzer - you
are getting nervous,
and fast.
Although nice job with the made-up-on-the-fly arguments covering what is basically just a revenge vote.
And I thought you were against running the same people up day after day, or is that just when you're a villager? (Maybe I'm thinking of someone else.)
