Royal Carnage - a CptEasy multiplayer AAR

[Thelamon]

I feel like a pophet of doom now...

1.
Whoever says GER/Axis have the "initiative" now is wrong!

The Axis now has several options to go down bravely - fighting and kicking hard though.

Hopefully giving us a nailbiting read.
They have exactly 0 (as in zero) chance of winning this round of the Carnage series.

2.
The reasons are:
a.) Due to the early US entry they will be seriously outproduced from the next year on.

b.) The Allies dominate the sea in the European theatre. Within a short time the Allies can free up more than 3/4 of the RN and USN for the Pacific breaking the IJN by sheer numbers.
(and the rest can easily continue to conduct and support landings all over Europe without serious opposition.)

c.) Axis will be hard pressed to even take back Mainland ITA with a frontline often only 3 provinces wide and very defensible terrain.
Against veteran ENG troops - especially as the BEF is now free to roam.

d.) ITA has lost Sicily, Sardinia and Korsica + half of its Mainland. If the Allies use all these Airbases and join the RAF and the USAF on the task they can be a real pain for the Axis while Stratboming from all directions to keep the Luftwaffe away from the Russian front.

e.) There is no indication that Russia will be cut off in the Balkans soon (or at all). The screenshots we have show Russia owning the very defensible Terrain of Romania and neutral Hungary to the north.
-> The Axis will first have to get there and the clock is ticking against them.
It would only get dangerous if GER leaves ITA to fend for its miserable self and use all its strength to cut down around Hungary through Ukraine.
Which would gain them what?
Russian and Allied troops would still be supplied via Turkey.

All in all it will be interesting to see if GER and JAP have any aces up their sleeves. If not the future looks bleak...

@Captain Easy
Thank you - and your in-laws - for this long and very interesting update!

 

[Cybvep]

Whoever says GER/Axis have the "initiative" now is wrong!

The fact that the Axis has the initiative doesn't mean that they are going to win. It means that they are the ones who will be controlling the battlefield for now. It's their choice whether to focus on clearing Italy of Allied troops first, conquering Romania or doing a massive attack on Soviet cores.

a.) Due to the early US entry they will be seriously outproduced from the next year on.

b.) The Allies dominate the sea in the European theatre. Within a short time the Allies can free up more than 3/4 of the RN and USN for the Pacific breaking the IJN by sheer numbers.
(and the rest can easily continue to conduct and support landings all over Europe without serious opposition.)

I agree here, but when it comes to the land war, in HOI3 MP is the deciding factor, not IC. Allied IC advantage is less important than you may think.

c.) Axis will be hard pressed to even take back Mainland ITA with a frontline often only 3 provinces wide and very defensible terrain.
Against veteran ENG troops - especially as the BEF is now free to roam.

I disagree. The quality of the American troops is questionable and the British, although experienced, are probably not as good as the Germans.

As for the rest, I think it's too early to tell.

 

[Baltasar]

I share Thelamons point of view. The game is basically over thanks to the vast manpower reserves and the industrial might of the USA. Russia just has to keep the Axis at bay while the USA can churn out aircraft to reduce the Axis formations. The quality edge for the German formations is not relevant right now because the UK and US can just jump on and off their boats which means that it'd be pointless to try to fight them. The only real chance for the Axis is to try to knock out Russia, which I think is very hard unless the Russian player makes some serious mistakes. Other than that, nothing short of landings in the US by the Japan player can turn the game.

If amphibious operations could somehow be made more realistic, the game might have been more interesting.

 

[Cybvep]

The only real chance for the Axis is to try to knock out Russia, which I think is very hard unless the Russian player makes some serious mistakes. Other than that, nothing short of landings in the US by the Japan player can turn the game.

If we are so sure of the outcome, this wouldn't change it, either. IRL an invasion of the West Coast would be a terrible political blow to the US government and I'm quite convinced that Europe would become a secondary front then. However, in-game, this is not the case. Let's say that Japan manages to conquer the whole West Coast. So what? What they will do next? Walk from San Francisco to Washington? As long as the Panama Canal is safe and there are no Axis countries in South America, the USA can fight with high efficiency even without the West Coast.

I think that some AAR readers often forget that it's a MP game, where every smaller or bigger game flaw can be magnified ad infinitum.

There is only one thing that matters for the Allies in HOI3 MP games - Germany needs to be knocked out of the war. This usually happens by inflicting high MP losses, so every little MP point Germany loses is a small victory. Italian and especially Japanese MP are much less valuable. The rest is just the result of opportunism - if Italy seems weak and the Axis efforts on the Eastern Front can be disrupted by attacking them, then the players simply do it.

There is also no SU vs Allies rivalry, because most MP games end when either the Axis or the Allies/Comintern block is defeated.

 

[Baltasar]

I don't believe that the US could ignore a Japanese invasion. I think it would mean that the US would have to redirect their forces to their home soil to keep the much tougher Japanese at bay. The Panama Channel is also not that hard to crack, since most US players don't protect it at all.

 

[Cybvep]

I don't believe that the US could ignore a Japanese invasion. I think it would mean that the US would have to redirect their forces to their home soil to keep the much tougher Japanese at bay.

Nope. They would simply deploy some troops in the USA and stall the Japanese in the centre. Infra in the central parts of the USA is poor. How much troops do you think the Japanese could supply effectively?

The Panama Channel is also not that hard to crack, since most US players don't protect it at all.

If Japan controls the Canal, then it's a different story. TBH I think that a direct attack on Panama would be much more threatening than an attack on the West Coast in HOI3.

 

[Argaud]

If it is a MP game, I will remind you that:

Italy has a large MP pool
Japan has China, so it has a huge MP pool.
If GB loses India, their MP pool is going to hell.
USA has a rather tiny MP pool. This is quite ahistorical, but I suspect done for game balance.
The SU is the key, it is the only country that can do enough damage to Germany MP pool. You better hope the player is good enough.

As an aside I am curious about Japan. It looks quite strong, how is the situation in the Far East?

 

[Cybvep]

If it is a MP game, I will remind you that:

Italy has a large MP pool
Japan has China, so it has a huge MP pool.
If GB loses India, their MP pool is going to hell.
USA has a rather tiny MP pool. This is quite ahistorical, but I suspect done for game balance.
The SU is the key, it is the only country that can do enough damage to Germany MP pool. You better hope the player is good enough.

Even more reasons to concentrate on bringing Germany down. Wasting MP on Japan is not a good option. Same in case of Italy, except in cases when it can disrupt the Axis efforts in the East or when Italy can be conquered easily.

 

[Wraith11B]

If amphibious operations could somehow be made more realistic, the game might have been more interesting.

I've been thinking about this. Perhaps one of the easiest recommendations I can think of to make an amphibious assault much more difficult/realistic would be to reduce the weight capacity of transport vessels, to include the convoy. Thus, it would take much more to build up a significant sealift capability in order to not only put units across the beach, but also to keep them supplied. Look at how many ships were present for Overlord, and that was just to put four divisions ashore across 25 miles of water.

Or, since the Carnage group prefer house rules to modding, perhaps require that to conduct an amphibious attack, three transport groups are required to lift one infantry division... granted, it's a bit on the honor system at that point, but I think they all trust one another.

 

[Argaud]

Even more reasons to concentrate on bringing Germany down. Wasting MP on Japan is not a good option. Same in case of Italy, except in cases when it can disrupt the Axis efforts in the East or when Italy can be conquered easily.

Yes, but according to the Captain currently Japan seems to have a better fleet than the US. And Italia better infantry than the US!

What has been the stupid AI doing? Developing militia techs?

Regardless, this bodes ill for the Allies. The US has a huge Leadership pool and tremendous IC (probably larger than Germany if Germany has not been seriously building IC). But bringing up to date all those doctrines and techs might be 6 months. Actually building a fleet to beat Japan might be 12, or even 18 months. Maybe more if Japan keeps kicking the US, taking Hawaii, taking Panama, port-striking the fleets of the Pacific, etc.

6 months might be all German needs to crush the SU. 3 months might be all Japan needs to take India. I don't think this is over yet.

 

[Thelamon]

The fact that the Axis has the initiative doesn't mean that they are going to win. It means that they are the ones who will be controlling the battlefield for now. It's their choice whether to focus on clearing Italy of Allied troops first, conquering Romania or doing a massive attack on Soviet cores.


I agree here, but when it comes to the land war, in HOI3 MP is the deciding factor, not IC. Allied IC advantage is less important than you may think.


I disagree. The quality of the American troops is questionable and the British, although experienced, are probably not as good as the Germans.

As for the rest, I think it's too early to tell.

The problem with that "initiative" is, that there are too many fires burning to extinguish enough of them in time.
To be successfull in one spot GER needs to leave open to many other spots.
1.
It is surrounded by close by enemy airbases (Denmark, Sicilly, Sardinia, Korsika). Allowing the Allies to Stratbomb from all directions playing Cat and mouse with the Luftwaffe and tying up a lot of INT formations and GER IC.
2.
The Allied IC advantage - due to the early US entry will result in massiv MP killing ability (Air, Armour andd Mech+SpArt) within the next year and onwards. And the Allies have all the time they need.
3.
The US troops have low qualitiy only in short term. The available IC will allow maximum upgrades within the next half year.
And in another half year strong Armour and Mech will start coming out of production.
4.
Even if GER manage to temporarily free ITA mainland it will never be able to significantly damage the Allied forces in Europe as they can simply withrdraw to Sicilly or their boats.
5.
From now on the Allies can attack and dodge back (if necessary) everywhere in Europe. Tying up GER forces to guard France and the entire GER coastline up to the Russion Front inthe Baltic.
-> All these troops will be missing for a decisive blow on SOV.

I've been thinking about this. Perhaps one of the easiest recommendations I can think of to make an amphibious assault much more difficult/realistic would be to reduce the weight capacity of transport vessels, to include the convoy. Thus, it would take much more to build up a significant sealift capability in order to not only put units across the beach, but also to keep them supplied. Look at how many ships were present for Overlord, and that was just to put four divisions ashore across 25 miles of water.

Or, since the Carnage group prefer house rules to modding, perhaps require that to conduct an amphibious attack, three transport groups are required to lift one infantry division... granted, it's a bit on the honor system at that point, but I think they all trust one another.

The Carnage group stated that they deliberately kept the number of house rules very limited.
But I do think that these house rules could use some adjustments:

A. Naval invasions:
1. Opposed landings can only be done by specialised light Infantry:
Marines, Mountain, Paratroopers.
(If that is considered to harsh, Infantry units without heavy Attachments like Art/AT etc. could fall under that category too.)
2.Unoposed landings can be conducted by all units.
3. (Most important)
a.) Withdrawing units too sea from non port provinces can only be done by specialized light Infantry (Marines, Mountain, Paratroopers) and Infantry without heavy attachments.
b.) All heavy units (Mot, Mech, Arm, L-Arm etc. and Infantry with heavy attachments) can only be evacuated to sea by loading in a port province. (One might add a level 2 Port requirement...)

B. No military acces between Allies and Comintern!
(Three block system)

C. USA - human player and war entry (a problem in previous Carnage rounds)
a.)
Allies may put a human player on USA once France falls. (The rules about when to join Allies/ the war are all kept though - the only goal is to allow the US to prepare build/tech in a reasonable way. Which was not the case in previous rounds.)
b.)
US may join Allies after France has fallen when either Gibraltar or Suez falls. (addition to the existing rules)

D. A reasonable rule about Allied acces to the Baltic...
Something like:
a.) No Allied ships in the Baltic prior to Danzig or War
b.) Allies may enter the Baltic past Kopenhagen only if they own at least one Province on the Danish mainland. (Even if they own the strait province)

Yes, but according to the Captain currently Japan seems to have a better fleet than the US. And Italia better infantry than the US!

What has been the stupid AI doing? Developing militia techs?

Regardless, this bodes ill for the Allies. The US has a huge Leadership pool and tremendous IC (probably larger than Germany if Germany has not been seriously building IC). But bringing up to date all those doctrines and techs might be 6 months. Actually building a fleet to beat Japan might be 12, or even 18 months. Maybe more if Japan keeps kicking the US, taking Hawaii, taking Panama, port-striking the fleets of the Pacific, etc.

6 months might be all German needs to crush the SU. 3 months might be all Japan needs to take India. I don't think this is over yet.

1.
The US AI is building and researching crap...
(Hence my proposal to allow Allies to gat a human Player on the US earlier in future games)
2.
THe Allies easily have these 6 months or even a year. And they can weaken GER all the way till they are ready.
3.
I don't see SOV falling that fast with so much territory to trade for time.
4.
I don't see JAP IJN stand up against the joint US and ENG navies. JAP needs the time from 1939/40 till Pearl harbour to biuld up its Carrier fleet after cleaning up NatChi.

-> In this Carnage round JAP didn't have these needed two years of Naval build-up!

 

[Cybvep]

1. Opposed landings can only be done by specialised light Infantry:
Marines, Mountain, Paratroopers.
(If that is considered to harsh, Infantry units without heavy Attachments like Art/AT etc. could fall under that category too.)
2.Unoposed landings can be conducted by all units.

That's nonsense. It wouldn't change a thing. Amphibious assaults on guarded provinces are not a problem at all. Amphibious assaults on UNGUARDED provinces are the problem, because they can be performed anywhere very easily and very quickly (even with panzers!) and it's unrealistically easy to supply your troops until the port province is conquered. Also, "sneaky" invasions are far too common and not very realistic.

3. (Most important)
a.) Withdrawing units too sea from non port provinces can only be done by specialized light Infantry (Marines, Mountain, Paratroopers) and Infantry without heavy attachments.
b.) All heavy units (Mot, Mech, Arm, L-Arm etc. and Infantry with heavy attachments) can only be evacuated to sea by loading in a port province. (One might add a level 2 Port requirement...)

Now that would be sth. I like these ideas.

D. A reasonable rule about Allied acces to the Baltic...
Something like:
a.) No Allied ships in the Baltic prior to Danzig or War
b.) Allies may enter the Baltic past Kopenhagen only if they own at least one Province on the Danish mainland. (Even if they own the strait province)

Arbitrary and strange. Besides, the trick in the Baltic Sea is probably a one-time issue, since every next GER player will be more careful about it.

The US troops have low qualitiy only in short term. The available IC will allow maximum upgrades within the next half year.
And in another half year strong Armour and Mech will start coming out of production.

That leaves 1 year for decisive action in the East. It's a long period of time, esp. that in HOI3 weather effects are just a nuisance. Also, keep in mind that the Axis won't be simply standing still while the Allies are researching techs...

 

[loki100]

this is a fascinating discussion but in danger of hijacking Cpt Easy's thread, perhaps best to leave it at this stage till the next update?

 

[Cybvep]

We are mostly discussing the AAR...

 

[Hardradi]

This is great but I agree I think you should take it outside. I would love to see you guys go toe-to-toe on a full game or a scenario (with an AAR of course) - I would even lay down a few dollars to see it, if it was this passionate.


Back to the AAR

- great post CptEasy, stunning attack on mainland Italy, I dont know what the future holds
- why is it Allies and Comintern versus the Axis - who wins on points at the end? ? ?

 

[Baltasar]

I'm missing information from the other areas. It'd be interesting to see how things are going in Asia, especially in terms of Japanese advances in India and Russia or vis a vis USA.

 

[unmerged(67185)]

I think that Germany have to go for Gibraltar trough Spain, they need to cut the med of for the Allies!

Still I think that the Allies have a slight advantage but It is not over for the axis.

 

[CptEasy]

Puh! A lot of thoughts there. Nice. I'll try to answer those with a questionmark or I'll do little else today

How long will it take the Germans to Strat. Redeploy to the eastern front and Italy? If I were you I would wait 2 weeks or so until the operation is underway and then invade the Danish Isles or Brittany. That should cause some trouble.

Think it would take them at 2-3 weeks, depending on how fast they get them going. When I was Germany it took at least a week for me to send them all in a proper organized hierarchy. Yes, I see your point with the attack, just after Germany have been sending their troops to new areas. Well, I can asure you, I didn't plan to let my troopers rest

If it is a MP game, I will remind you that:

Italy has a large MP pool
Japan has China, so it has a huge MP pool.
If GB loses India, their MP pool is going to hell.
USA has a rather tiny MP pool. This is quite ahistorical, but I suspect done for game balance.
The SU is the key, it is the only country that can do enough damage to Germany MP pool. You better hope the player is good enough.

As an aside I am curious about Japan. It looks quite strong, how is the situation in the Far East?

Some important bullets. In fact, this early in the game, the US MP was so terribly low that they player immediately depleted it when scrapping all bullship coastal defenses and starting to build units. Even though he focussed on MP-concervative units like ships, it was still a major problem, making it impossible to build any kind of large army (in the short term). And yes, SU is definately the key here. We have seen in earlier games how a skilled German player can crush the Red Army in a quite short time if they can go at it undisturbed. Like somebody just said, in MP, these kind of events can be magnified greatly. This was a great concern for us - and a reason why I planned to continuously harras Axis-Europe to take of their offensive edge. I think there's some Asian news in next chapter but it's mostly Japan pushing back the Red Army slowly and at the same time taking some Indonesian islands without any real effort.

I've been thinking about this. Perhaps one of the easiest recommendations I can think of to make an amphibious assault much more difficult/realistic would be to reduce the weight capacity of transport vessels, to include the convoy. Thus, it would take much more to build up a significant sealift capability in order to not only put units across the beach, but also to keep them supplied. Look at how many ships were present for Overlord, and that was just to put four divisions ashore across 25 miles of water. Or, since the Carnage group prefer house rules to modding, perhaps require that to conduct an amphibious attack, three transport groups are required to lift one infantry division... granted, it's a bit on the honor system at that point, but I think they all trust one another.

So far, amphibious landings have not been a big concern for us. In this game however, I utilize quite a lot. We havn't really discussed how to House Rule it as we fear to block creativness too much. Perferably, we would modd it to lower the amount of supply the lander get (like I know several modding MP-groups have done). Perhaps we will do some "local" House Ruling to avoid unrealistic British naval activity in the Baltics during the opening in the war - but I have just realized that FtM has done some interesting changes to naval zones which effectively deals with some of the problems.

Yes, but according to the Captain currently Japan seems to have a better fleet than the US. And Italia better infantry than the US!

What has been the stupid AI doing? Developing militia techs?

6 months might be all German needs to crush the SU. 3 months might be all Japan needs to take India. I don't think this is over yet.

Like somebody else mentioned, AI US is crap in the sense that it leaves severe gaps. For instanse, it was so low in cavalry that you needed 1 more level of cavalry to even START research Motorized. In light armor, one of the sectiones was so low it needed two levels before they could even START research medium armor. I think one of the infantry sections was 1918 lvl. So yes - it takes some time to get US land forces operational - and years before you can build any desent medium armor divisions with motorized.Also, they had like 5 or 6 carriers in the buidling queue but they were at least 6 months away if not more.

And yes, a German player CAN, with a little luck, crush the Red Army quite quickly. We have seen it before.

The Carnage group stated that they deliberately kept the number of house rules very limited.
But I do think that these house rules could use some adjustments:

A. Naval invasions:

B. No military acces between Allies and Comintern!
(Three block system)

a.)
Allies may put a human player on USA once France falls. (The rules about when to join Allies/ the war are all kept though - the only goal is to allow the US to prepare build/tech in a reasonable way. Which was not the case in previous rounds.)
b.)

US may join Allies after France has fallen when either Gibraltar or Suez falls. (addition to the existing rules)

D. A reasonable rule about Allied acces to the Baltic...
Something like:
b.) Allies may enter the Baltic past Kopenhagen only if they own at least one Province on the Danish mainland. (Even if they own the strait province)

Naval invasions - I answered a little above. We do not really get bog down with to much House Rules. In the mids of a coastal fight I could never keep all that in mind - and some things is automatic. But I agree the present system has flaws. We have had lengthy discusions about that previously.

SU-Allies pacts - I quite agree. But we havn't had any problem with exploits so far. And even if the get access... they don't get supply, right? Or have that changed?

USA player earlier - I kind of like US being so crappy to start with. See no point of changing rules there. I like the idea of USA turn auto-Allies if certain areas are taken. I'll take it up with the group.

Rules in Denmark - Yes, something like this actually came up. Something like "The Brits are not allowed to land troops from ships to the Danish Isles (must attack through mainland Denmark to reach Kopenhagen). But the new sea zone in FtM have solved this problem for us. Thank you Paradox!

- great post CptEasy, stunning attack on mainland Italy, I dont know what the future holds
- why is it Allies and Comintern versus the Axis - who wins on points at the end? ? ?

Your question really hits the mark of ours most resent discussions. We want victory conditions that really promotes an endgame. We have discussed some new conditions here - like Allies/Commies needing 66% of all VPs to claim vicory over Axis. Still, we have no idea how to give SU and Allies very different victory contitions. Feel free to come with ideas. In the best of worlds, you would like to get Allies/SU a little less friends and also, you would like Axis to have a reason to continue the fighten even when the winds are turning.

I'm missing information from the other areas. It'd be interesting to see how things are going in Asia, especially in terms of Japanese advances in India and Russia or vis a vis USA.

It is coming my friend As mentioned above, that area is not really dramatic for the moment... I would like to emphesize for the moment

 

[Cybvep]

Your question really hits the mark of ours most resent discussions. We want victory conditions that really promotes an endgame. We have discussed some new conditions here - like Allies/Commies needing 66% of all VPs to claim vicory over Axis. Still, we have no idea how to give SU and Allies very different victory contitions. Feel free to come with ideas. In the best of worlds, you would like to get Allies/SU a little less friends and also, you would like Axis to have a reason to continue the fighten even when the winds are turning.

I can write a long essay about this, because that's sth I've been pondering on recently. The inspiration came from some boardgames and the game Military History Commander - Europe At War.

 

[unmerged(192048)]

Russian player from this game here. Thought I'd add my perspective on things at this stage.

Someone mentioned Russian transports. I'll admit that I haven't been building and researching heavy in the naval area. I might even admit without spoiling to much of the action, that that area haven't been my focus at all. Naturally. Russias fate is decided on land. I did however positioned Russias existing fleet at strategic points.

At the Asian fron I left just a garrison in Vladivostock, leaving almost all my coastal provinces empty. The risk of getting cut off is just too big here.

My plan for Russia was a long term build. Thus motivating the annexation of Rumania. The early war entry was not as selfinfliceted as it might seem. As CptEasy pointed out, at the time, it was the only reasonable thing to do. From the very start I had my focus on infantery research, but as soon as I met German troops I understood that I was still miles away from a match. They are superior in tech, doctrines and leaders and there was no way I could continue my westward push. And don't get me started on the armor... I had to prioritise my infantery, so my armor is even further behind.

So at the moment I'm waiting for the inevitable turn of tides when the German war machine turns east. My number one priority is of course not to be cut off, isolated and eliminated. At every (German) front province I've got at least a token defender in the province behind to protect myself from breakthrough and paradrops. I'm also well aware of the risk my streatched Rumanian front poses when it comes to isolation. But sometimes being aware and prepared isn't enough...