Also, there should be an event for an assasination attempt against the prophet, if it succeeds there should be a couple of options IMO:
1. Religion ceases to exist forever.
2. Religion ceases to exist for a while, some decades/year later another prophet rises, claiming to have recieved the rest of the Quran which the original prophet didn't recieve*.
3. Religion continues to exist, however with no clear leader it splits into a couple of branches based on each follower's interpretations and own theology.
4. Religion continues to exist, however instead of one leader a council rules the religion, kinda like a pentarchy but with equal powers and in one place.
5. Religion continues to exist, however an undisputable leader is chosen to be the successor to the prophet.
*This could possibly be a thing with the other options too, with one of the successors claiming to also recieve revelations.