Dead thread, but I'm gonna ask anyway.
You say that the prophet will go to war with Medina if Mecca refuses to convert, but from what I just read, Medina converted peacefully, with minor, landless clans converting first, until some important guy converted and a lot followed him. I suggest that there should also be a multi-option of what happens in Medina, if Medina refuses to convert then the prophet should move to abbysinia (irl he sent some followers there before fleeing mecca), as he had no chance of conquering medina by force (all his stuff was confiscated after he fled mecca due to an assasination plot against him).
Also, there should be an event for an assasination attempt against the prophet, if it succeeds there should be a couple of options IMO:
1. Religion ceases to exist forever.
2. Religion ceases to exist for a while, some decades/year later another prophet rises, claiming to have recieved the rest of the Quran which the original prophet didn't recieve*.
3. Religion continues to exist, however with no clear leader it splits into a couple of branches based on each follower's interpretations and own theology.
4. Religion continues to exist, however instead of one leader a council rules the religion, kinda like a pentarchy but with equal powers and in one place.
5. Religion continues to exist, however an undisputable leader is chosen to be the successor to the prophet.
*This could possibly be a thing with the other options too, with one of the successors claiming to also recieve revelations.
Also thank god that this has a redo thingy, I deleated half of what I wrote accidently twice.