Following the Commissioning of a report onto the matter of how best to avert the current risk of Famine, and to avert potential future famines via decisive actions, the following has been suggested.
Short Term to Medium Term Projects
Direct Government Intervention within Bread and Flour Pricing
There is currently, in many of our cities a significant issue in the provision of Food, especially for the poorest in society. Many Bakers and thus their consumers are at constant risk of Grain rates fluctuating. It is then advisable that an organisation be established to organise primary producers, with commercial consumers to the benefit of both groups in addition to the general public.
The Commission would operate in two parts. The first section would be tasked in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Trade to monitor existing Grain and Bread prices, both domestically and internationally. Via constant monitoring of these statistics, it will be possible to with better accuracy predict grain prices domestically, in addition to assisting grain merchants and shipping companies in ascertaining whether foreign purchases will be economically viable within the coming year. The second part of the Commission will operate far more closely with commercial consumers and Producers, under the title of Caisse de service de la Boulangerie de Paris. As the title suggests, the project will be at least at the beginning focused on Paris and the Seine Department, this is due to the significant economic and political importance of tranquillity within the Nation’s capital, especially so soon after a revolutionary moment. If the project is deemed a success, then it can be rolled out to cities which historically have had similar issues with Bread Pricing.
The Caisse is to act to ensure Bread prices do not reach above the level deemed conducive to public disorder, which in Paris is suggested to be set at approximately 50 centimes per KG for First class bread and 40 centimes per KG of Second Class Bread. The Caisse, unlike previous institutions seeking to interfere with food prices, will have a much lighter touch, and will not own or sell any grain itself. It instead is to act as an intermediary between suppliers and bakers. Every baker is to be mandated to report all agreements for the purchase of flour to the Caisse, who then pays the supplier on the Baker’s behalf. The Baker is then over a set period mandated to repay the Caisse for these supplies, but are offered lines of credit to do so. Collateral will in the future be taken in the form of government-mandated surplus flour supplies. However, considering that the current situation is not conducive to the creation of a large surplus of grain, either other collateral will have to be found or the requirement for collateral temporarily postponed.
The Caisse will ensure there are no limits on the costs that be charged for so-called ‘Pain de luxe’, due to its traditional clientele being insulated by their wealth from the effects of increasing bread prices. By keeping this tethered to market forces it is hoped that Bakers and suppliers will retain confidence in the new approach to bread pricing, as well as minimise the effects of it on their income. It has been deemed necessary for the success of the project to reestablish the Octroi on grain entering the Seine Department, this when combined with payments of interest by the Bakers who are part of the program, will hopefully offset much of the costs for the government. It is not expected that this measure will ensure the Caisse will be cost-neutral, but the costs will be somewhat reduced by these measures, while also ensuring compliance and an increased work ethic from bakers
It must also be stressed that this government intervention in bread pricing is to be a temporary one when supply has regularly surpassed demand by a margin high enough to ensure favourable bread prices, it is advised that this organisation be liquidated or maintained only as an emergency department to be used in times of extreme duress. Maintaining a corps of staff closely associated with the industry, and with institutional knowledge of the issues facing French cities will be invaluable in such times of irregularity.
Increased trading links with both international and Domestic Grain Markets
Current Grain Traders, both International and Domestic are routinely criticised for their Timidity and have in some quarters become a symbol of who is to blame for recurrent Grain shortages that exist throughout the nation, however, while their Timidity is clearly not optimal, they cannot be fully blamed for their inaction. As currently constituted there are significant institutional barriers to them successfully plying their trade.
The most significant issue for Grain merchants is the current ‘Sliding-Scale’ Grain Tariff. The Tariff which bases the tariffs paid on grain entering the country, based on the current prices of Grain domestically damages the french nation in two ways. The first, is that by its nature, its variability creates uncertainty among merchants, who have at times purchased Grain from abroad to be sold domestically, only for the Tariff rate to increase while they were away, thereby turning what would’ve been a profitable enterprise into a loss-making one. Secondly, the Sliding-Scale indicates to the world how desperate France is for imports when the Scale’s tariffs are markedly decreased or even as they often are suspended outright, the international market views it as a signal of the weakness of our position. It would then be preferable to either out-right abolish the Grain Tariff or instead replace it with a much smaller fixed rate tariff. It is the opinion of the Commission that contrary to popular belief this change in the tariff structure will not have a significant impact on the livelihoods of domestic farmers, whose price per hectolitre of Grain should remain relatively stationary. It will, however, have a significant impact on both confidence in the grain market by Applicable merchants, and an increase in the amounts of Grain sold, even in Domestic settings.
It has been noted that the announcement of the arrival of Grain into French Ports has resulted in a noticeable dip in the price of Grain, far what would be expected due to a relatively minor increase in Supply. It is the belief of the Commission then, that in many cases the domestic price levels are as much based on confidence in the supposed scarcity of Grain, as they are on the actual supply. By either eliminating or permanently standardising the tariff, this inflow of Grain will provide a noticeable increase in the confidence of continued supply, especially to urban areas, and will encourage those who are ‘hoarding’ Grain, hoping for the price to increase to have their own goods enter the market, lest they are undercut by the new incoming supply.
In the Longer Term, the Government can also seek to reinforce certain Commercial links between Grain merchants and various international markets, as well as their relationship with Domestic institutions. Constant collaboration between Grain Merchants and the Government is vital for the success of both in this matter. It would be advisable to provide information collected by the state, on domestic production and prices both at home and abroad to these Grain merchants, both to allow them to both go about their business as effectively as possible but to also ensure that they are able to effectively react to Domestic demand and foreign surpluses. Thereby ensuring the best outcome for domestic consumers. Grain Merchants must also be encouraged to create Permanent presences at areas of importance to the international Agricultural trade, to ensure the rapidity of their response to changes in prices and demands. Currently, French merchants due to institutional barriers to their trade are at a significant disadvantage to other traders from the Netherlands or Britain, who have been able to successfully cultivate a relationship with international suppliers. It is also important to ensure their collaboration directly with shipping companies, especially on issues of ship capacity and Freight Rates, which must decrease and standardise to ensure the viability of French access to the international markets. It may also be possible in times of extreme duress for The French state to pick up some or even all of the costs of these freight rates, in the form of a loan or a grant, to ensure the viability of foreign imports on the domestic market.
Likewise, expansion and an increase in provisions for agricultural importation in key ports for the Grain trade such as Le Havre, Marseille and Dunkirk will reduce transportation costs notably, as well increase storage capacity for merchants in these locales, ensuring that they can store their good whiles the demands of
However it is not just changes that must come in the relationship merchants have with foreign producers, but also Domestic ones. Currently, small-scale merchants, starved of access to credit rely on often inherited trading connections and act as little more than hoarders and middlemen. With increased access to capital, it is believed by the Commission that small scale Grain traders will be able to better compete with one another, and increase their role within the market, expanding to provide a vital service as well as increasing their business connections, thereby becoming more national in scope. Likewise, further reinforcement between the Nation’s institutes d’agricoles and large scale merchants is preferable, this can take the form of Government incentives for deeper cooperation, or the expansion of Agricultural expositions, to allow the fostering of strong commercial relationships. Likewise, farmers should be encouraged to sell their goods at Markets rather than as is often done, in private deals at Farms. Public sales both allow for competition in pricing and are much more easily taxed and monitored than private commercial agreements. It is then in the benefit of all involved if sales were public and registered.
Storage of Grain often is limited by current infrastructural demands and should be expanded, especially with a focus on two different theatres. Investment in Granaries at major entrepots and areas of particular interest will allow for any shipments of Grain to be stored with minimal risks of loss, making the operation far more commercially viable than it would be with the current situation. Likewise, with Granaries located in major cities, bakers can pool together their resources in order to fulfil their legal and commercial obligations. Smallhold farmers also must be assisted in the creation of cooperative granaries, as the current situation is very unfavourable for them, with a lack of access to safe and affordable storage, they are at the whims of speculators who know the importance of selling the grain within an allotted time from harvesting, were this to change, these smallhold and cooperative farmers would see their livelihoods strengthened significantly.
Greater Regulation for Bakeries, and the closure of surplus and non-Commercially viable examples
The current situation for Bakers is not optimal for either their own benefit or for the consumer of their baked products. Currently, the market is almost wholly deregulated and oversaturated, it has been stated the average baker before they even start Baking bread is 10,000 Francs in debt. While not a rule for each baker, it certainly shows the economic hardship many of these people find themselves in.
It is thus important to create an industrial group of Bakers, through which the relevant Government Agencies can communicate and collaborate with this sector of the economy. Membership of these groups must be mandatory, and open to all who are capable of meeting the requirements. These requirements are encouraged to include Regular governmental inspection of both their facilities, stock and products, to ensure all are meeting sanitary and other legal guidelines. In addition to the submitting to the agreements and supply contracts already set out where applicable, to ensure standardisation and total buy into the necessary changes as already outlined.
However, it is understood by the Commission that not every Bakery will be able to meet these requirements, and indeed that in many cities there are simply too many bakeries. To rectify this there will be the establishment of a small levy on Bakeries to act as both a buy into the schemes already outlined, but also to assist in the voluntary closure of surplus bakeries, or mandatory purchase of closed or closing bakeries considered important for continued production. These bakeries will be operated by the Industrial Group of Bakers as they see fit, pursuant to the laws and regulations currently in effect.
The manner in which Surplus grain is stored must also change. There has been much talk in the past of the establishment of a mandatory 1-month consumption surplus, however, there is currently no well-enforced statute on the matter. It is preferable then that there becomes a mandatory surplus for each baker, as decided by their average monthly consumption. This purchase will also assist, in times of low Grain price, to artificially increase it, thus mass purchases should be halted until economic conditions are more conducive to the financial transaction that must take place. Over time this surplus should be expanded to 3 months. This length of time is considered very important, as it is widely held to be the length of time required for Grain purchased abroad to enter France and to begin circulating. A 3-month surplus then will allow for any future severe grain shortage that would previously have created famine to be almost totally offset, apart from an inevitable small increase in bread prices.
The Government, however, cannot expect Bakers to have to do it all themselves, the storage of Grain is one of the most expensive parts of the Bakers outflow of Capital, being legally mandated to hire both a storage area, guards and to have it insured. The Government could lower these costs, by subsidising these outflows, either in-part or fully. Likewise the reconstruction of Paris offers an opportunity for a Government warehouse to be constructed, in order to provide these storage facilities at a much lower cost than the private sector. If deemed that the Private Sector is more suitable for this economic activity, then Bakers should be encouraged to work together on the storage of their Grain, to both minimise their costs and to ensure some level of centralisation of the Process, allowing for the state to better protect these vital stores.
Investment in Millers
The current situation Millers find themselves in can only be that of ‘squeezed’, recent studies show that for each 157kg bag of flour refined, the profit is approximately a single Franc. Likewise, it has also been recognised that the cost for Millers increases significantly in drier years, in particularly dry years costs can be up to 2-3 times that found in Wetter ones.
Costs for Millers are passed onto consumers, both directly via increased costs to bakers for the purchase of the Flour required to bake their bread, but also indirectly through a reduction in efficiency, and a lack of commercialisation. Costs could be significantly lowered for Millers, thereby allowing increased competition in pricings, but it would require a significant expansion in both investment and access to credit. Both things that currently Millers are desperately starved of. Many such locations are still using basically the same techniques and machinery that have been in use for Centuries, a modernisation scheme is thus more than necessary if this weak link of the production chain is to be strengthened. Millers need Dressed millstones, they need modern machinery, and increasingly it is becoming necessary to invest in a steam engine. The provision of Steam engines especially is important, as it will untether production from environmental conditions when there has been a poor harvest and poor rainfall, the results currently can be quite catastrophic.
An increase of access to the largest and most prosperous mills, whether via government underwriting of loans, an expansion of banking infrastructure in rural areas or via simple government Grants, will allow for a notable expansion of their operations, with an associated reduced cost per Bag, a saving that will be passed along to consumers. Increased Lines of credit will also ease the operations of Millers. Millers by their industry’s very nature often receive payments in bulk, after the work is done and the flour refined. Affordable credit will assist in the payment and maintenance of the workforce. In addition by Mitigating these Labour costs, there will likely be an associated reduction in Prices for consumers, as well as increased security for both the Mill operator and its workers.
Likewise, Millers suffer from the same problem that afflicts farmers and smaller grain merchants, that they have yet to fully commercialise their industry. In many areas throughout France millers take on the same shipments, for the same prices every year, using the contracts they have inherited for Generations. This leads to an inefficient and ultimately regressive economic situation, one that is very much not favourable for an increased output. By integrating them better into existing institute d’agricoles, it is hoped that they will improve their commercial relations with farmers, their agents as well as Large Scale merchants and Transport interests. This will increase their greater connectivity within a wider rural economy, as well as reducing the risk of losing their small number of current contracts, in addition to increasing their financial stability.
Increasing Access to Capital in Rural Areas
Rural France is currently very Capital poor, it is estimated that the current capital per Hectare under cultivation is 400 Francs. A localised study undertaken in 1859 gave a figure of 397 Francs per Hectare resulting in the cultivation of products that could be worth 792. A significant cause for why the cultivation is currently low is the associated higher capital investments required with modernising French Farms, both through the provision of Machinery, increase access to Fertilisers and through investments in improved agricultural techniques. To many, especially larger landowners, the goal of Agriculture is to invest as little as possible per Hectare, to take as little risk in their business venture and to earn just enough money to fully fund their lifestyle. By Increasing Access to Capital and credit, especially among smallhold farmers and cooperatives, the relevant investments can be made to ensure an increase in Agricultural outputs.
One such opportunity to ensure more efficient distribution of existing Rural capital is to alter the mode of organisation of rural credit unions, back to their original intended system of ‘One member One vote’ (OMOV). There have been complaints from members within credit unions that credit unions have increasingly become tools for investment within Notable’s estates, estates which have access to alternative lines of credit and are often the only parts of the Rural economy not credit-starved. By altering the organisations to OMOV, it is believed that there will be a greater interrogation of proposed investments, and more scrutinisation of presented Business plans. Likewise, there will inevitably be more funding allocated to smaller holdings and cooperatives, who offer the most promising opportunity for significant economic expansion and output.
However, with this change, there must also be an altering of Government interactions with larger estates, who may admittedly receive a small downtick in access to credit. The Government must encourage these estates to commercialise and diversify their production, via underwriting of loans for investment into the estates, and the purchase of machinery, equipment and hiring of expertise. In addition, Favourable tax incentives must be offered to ensure that these rural notables are nudged in the correct direction and that the future focus of estates is to create a commercially viable agricultural business, not merely an estate to fund their urban lifestyles.
The government, must also through the National Credit Union Commission encourage greater collaboration between agricultural cooperatives and Credit unions, especially in secondary high value-added agricultural sectors such as dairy and meats, this will provide greater incomes to the relevant businesses, thereby allowing for reinvestment, not just in the cooperative and the constituent member’s farms, but also in the local community. By providing a greater level of income to rural farmers, the access to capital will increase, and standards of living will rise, with the goal to create a cycle of reinvestment and profit, thereby fundamentally altering aspects of the rural peasant led economy.
However it is not just Metropolitan France that offers tantalising opportunities for investment and expansion, French Algerian offers currently untapped economic opportunities if given the opportunity to grow. Currently, Algerian agriculture has a much lower productivity per hectare when compared to the Metropol, this is despite much laxer labour Laws and an associated reduction in Labour costs and restrictions that apply on the mainland. With the relevant economic investment, it is the belief of the commission that there can be an agricultural revolution within Algeria, retooling its fertile agricultural land to suit French consumer needs, and adapting and modernising existing agricultural techniques. The Commission then advises that the Central Government supports the Bank of Algeria in increasing Loan Capital, and encouraging it to expand its interests within the Agricultural sector. Currently, the Bank has been focusing on the growing industrial economy and resource extraction with French Algeria, which while undoubtedly crucial for the Colonial economy, does not necessarily provide the economic opportunity that a significant and successful expansion of Agricultural activities provides.
Relationship between Government and Industry
French Industry is crucial for the success of the French agricultural sector. Modern agricultural practices increasingly require modern agricultural methods, these methods are often reliant on state of the art Machinery. Modern machinery such as Mechanical Reapers and Threshers provide a significant increase in efficiency, and a significant reduction in the manpower required to harvest a hectare of Wheat, this reduction is very beneficial for both output, and profitability of Farms. However, despite the possible benefits of adoption, it is becoming increasingly clear that adoption of these modern practices and modern machinery is frustratingly slow, due to a combination of natural rural economic conservatism and a lack of access to the appropriate machinery.
The Commission then advises that the Government directly subsidise corporations involved in the purchase, production or importation of Agricultural machinery. It is hoped that through this act, there will be a marked uptick in adoption, as costs and the associated barrier to entry are lowered, increasing availability to rural investors. Likewise, it is hoped that by cultivating a domestic agricultural machinery industry, there will be associated benefits for both the larger French industrial sector, through the associated increase in demand for production, as well as materials needed in the production of such Machinery there will further incentive for growth. Likewise as previously stated the provision of lines of credit is vital for growth in the French rural economy, Government assistance to provide lines of credit to farmers to allow them to more easily invest in these productivity-increasing devices, will assist farmers, of all sizes immeasurable benefits. It is suggested this comes into effect by collaborating with the financial sector, as well as through the creation of investment funds and loan schemes for larger agricultural estates, who could benefit the most from these adoptions.
The Government must also seek to assist French Companies involved in the harvesting of Phosphates and Nitrates, for use as commercial fertilisers. French Algeria has been shown to be incredibly fertile land for the Harvesting of Phosphates, and by working with Domestic companies who seek to harvest both outside of the Metropol and even outside of the French state entirely. It is hoped that increasingly fertilisers can become more common, in Algeria, there is certainly a favourable combination of currently low agricultural yields and an abundance of possible fertilisers. It has however yet to be seen if this combination will be fortuitous for Algerian agriculture.
One current issue in the rural economy is that of Shipping and economic integration between provinces. It is the view of the commission that the integration of all competing railway companies into a single price model, as organised by a railway commission, whose membership is to be voluntarily made up of all current railway franchises. Membership of the railway commission would act as an agreement to follow Government Directives on pricing, construction and scheduling when necessary. Failure to join would result in the end of the current government support for that Company’s railway stock dividends, and profits, in addition to an end to any future lines or Government contracts being provided to said Company. Direct subsidies would also be offered for the modernisation and expansion of Railway capacity, on a project to project basis, in addition to general subsidies to offset lowered freight rates. In times of extreme duress, such as during a severe food crisis, or conflict domestic or foreign, the commission would be empowered to operate the railways as a national concern, directly by central government authority. Likewise in times of less extreme economic turmoil, it would be empowered to mandate lower freight rates in exchange for increased subsidies, in order to avert a possible economic crisis.
Alternative ideas to alleviate the struggle of Urban Poor Directly
There are numerous organic and worker-led movements that have arisen in French urban areas in order to naturally reduce the effects of food shortages and to create a more varied diet, many of these movements are worthy of Government support, and can with the right support act as a truly useful policy to alleviate the issue of food security that affects many of our nation’s urban areas.
One such movement is the so-called Market Gardener movement, which has been shown repeatedly to act as an incredibly useful mitigator of Urban Hunger. They have repeatedly shown small places, with the correct care and attention can produce a significant amount of food year-round, especially for fresh produce, that would otherwise be almost impossible to get within French Urban settings. Even during the worst of winter months, French market gardeners have shown themselves wholly able to grow fresh vegetables for a minimal economic investment. Small areas of as little as 3 feet by 3 feet are suitable for such patterns of Growth and have time and time again acted as a form of income for the poorest in society, especially the elderly and women, as well as the benefits to health that access to fresh produce inevitably provides.
It would then be within the government's interests, to provide the relevant equipment and space to allow for the expansion of these ad-hoc projects. Ironically the destruction of Paris offers us a unique opportunity to rebuild it. The government would be amiss if they failed to take this opportunity to provide the Market garden movement, space to breath, quite literally. Likewise, for a small cost, the benefits to these communities would be about as cost-effective as can be reasonably expected for any investment of any kind to be. Likewise, the provision of best-practice advice, and active collaboration with interested community groups, and mutual organisations would provide a serious opportunity to both engage local communities, positively with the new government, and also provide a serious health benefit to the populations of urban France associated with the success of these projects.
Likewise, active coordination with charitable organisations, individual philanthropists and local governments could provide the opportunity to assist in the provision of subsidised or even free meals to schoolchildren, the benefit would be twofold, both reducing the costs associated with parenthood, for among the poorest in French urban areas, but also providing an incentive to go to school rather than illegally working, as is too often currently the case. However, Government collaboration on feeding children is not the only thing that can be done, active assistance for local community groups eager to improve their own conditions is preferable, as it both engages communities with the government, and provides the ability to engage in self-help and self-improvement practices in both situations to the benefit of the poorest in society, both economically and socially.
Long-Term Economic changes
The Government must also stay vigilant towards and committed to favourably altering long-Term Economic trends. With the correct guidance, and investment eventually the rural economy can be slowly freed from government intervention, as it becomes far more effectively self-regulating and naturally efficient, however for this to take place, structural changes must be made.
One such structural change is the transfer of tenancies from Proportional Rent tenancies to Fixed rent tenancies. It has been stated by previous inquiries that increasing tensions between landlords and their tenants have been exacerbated, if not admittedly wholly caused by the continuance in some localities of the Metayage tenancy system. It is widely viewed that in terms of social cohesion and economic efficiency that fixed-rate tenancies are far preferable than ‘sharecropping’, both by providing encouragement to increase agricultural productivity and creating a more harmonious relationship. In addition, efforts to ensure increased land tenancy securities are also central to further increasing agricultural productivity, if tenants are confident they will maintain control over their land, they are far more eager, and able to invest in both their homes and their farms.
This change will also have to be combined with a reduction in current Absenteeism between landlords, and an increased interest in the commercialisation and expansion of Agricultural estates, as seen in England and Germany. By creating a more active, participatory relationship between Landlords, tenants and overseers, then agricultural output will be able to improve, and tensions decrease. Ultimately the commercialise of such estates are necessary if they are to survive in any form.
It is also likely that with increasing communication abilities and infrastructure, there will be greeted economic and commercial relationships directly between farmer and commercial consumers, reducing middlemen. This as a prospect is very encouraging, currently, middlemen in this process are viewed as parasitic and fundamentally offer little in the way of Economic benefits or increased value to the end product. Their removal will benefit farmers significantly, as well as commercial consumers, by increasing profit margins via decreasing costs of shipment and labour.
There is likely to be a significant increase in the availability of Animals in Rural areas, this is certainly something the government must act to encourage. Animals provide both a high value-added product in the form of milk and meat, as well as providing natural fertiliser in the form of manure to increase agricultural outputs. Increasing access to animals then at all levels of French rural economic activity is a very promising and favourable change and one that must be researched further, to determine how best to capitalise on this prospective benefit for both the rural economy and the national economy at large.
