I avoid being more than a year ahead on anything
This is a good rule of thumb.
Assuming a tech started one year ahead takes 1 year to research, than the average historic date modifier will be 0.82.
Assuming a tech started exactly on time takes 1 year to research, than the average historic date modifier will be 1.09.
This would mean that later the average daily research output would be 33% higher or earlier it would be 25% lower. Of course the historic date modifier would assure that the same tech would not need 1 year in both cases, therefore the actual average historic date modifier will be higher than 0.82 and below 1.09 in the second case. Proper calculation would be done iterative because the days needed depend on historic date modifier and historic date modifier depends on the current day.
except about 4 specific techs I intend to tech rush for unit build.
Having a few exceptions is OK. As Germany Arm1939, Int1940, Tac1940, Esc1940 and CAS1940 can be such exceptions. Arm1939 is needed for a properly timed build up as germany. Int1940 is quite essential. Tac1940 is helpful for cheap upgrading to Tac1938. Esc1940 is good because of range and Naval attack. CAS1937 is acceptable, but the upgrade to CAS1940 is cheap compared to the usefulness.
At start two teams tackle navy techs not because I have any intention of building anything except some subs (and TPs) but only because they are 1936 techs and so occupy my teams while avoiding researching ahead of historical (except the stated 4 exceptions). I know my SU is getting behind in research once the navy research gets cut to only one team. But one team will keep on forever preparing for when SU will build a modern navy. [...] Germany also does not need navy research but I do it to minimize researching too far ahead of historical date on other techs; and prepare for a future Sea Lion with CVs.
Such sort of minimizing historical date penalties is something i can advise, too. But only for techs that are intended to be needed in the future.
Playing as Germany I can not afford 100% research and at times it dips to only 75% but I aim for 95% best I can.
Using 100% spending but using only 3 team in early 1936 is good alternative. Slowly the number of used teams is increased to (current) maximum in 1938 at latest.
I think I must lag behind Germany in intelligence, industrial and ground troops because they have better teams. [...] This is a natural result of having better teams. (Later SU does get some excellent teams).
Too late is more like it. Between 1936 and 1947 german tech teams have an average daily research output that is 25% higher than that of soviet union. Historical date modifier will reduce the german advantage in daily research output, but only because germany will be significantly ahead of time compared to soviet union. On average germany would be ~9 months ahead of soviet union.
But the AI does not give 100% research effort (I think), so against him I am fairly even.
AI always uses always 100% research. It is just way less capable of organizing its teams properly.
Playing as Japan it is a very independent road and with this country there are huge areas of research that I never touch while prioritising industrial, INF, CAV and navy. A 2nd rate air force is OK for Japan so I do those techs as they come along (if I have spare team) since I won't have IC for FTR or NAV anyway until after China is won. Toys like MAR, PARA and ARM Japan can't afford. But CAV is, IMO, Japan's answer to all its problems in China. Maybe I should try MTN but seems I couldn't afford to build those either!
You donnot have the icd to utilize Mtn in huge numbers in 1937. If however you decline the war in 1937, join axis in early 1936 and wait for Danzig to declare war on China, than Mtn-Art in huge numbers is by far the best choice possible.
Mar is something japan must research in any case, too. But as mcganyol correctly points out actualy building Mar may not be necassary.