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lihp

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I direct you to The War at Sea - Royal and Dominion Navy Actions in World War 2 for a fairly comprehensive analysis of RN capabilities in 39. As always, don't look at just one source, but this source gives a rather good big picture. I assure you, Sea Lion was very much a possibility. Also - just because the Germans discussed Sea Lion in 39 doesn't mean they planned for it. They discussed finding the Ark of the Covenant as well. Napoleon actually was much further along in his preparations for an invasion of England than the Germans ever were. He actually had camps set up across the Channel where the majority of his army was situated.

Please dont mix comments up:
  1. First mention of Sealion was August 1939. I didnt check how much of a planning happened at that time. Checking this is imho kinda pointless.
  2. "The War at Sea - Royal and Dominion Navy Actions in World War 2" by Gordon Smith is not a source. Gordon Smith is not even a historican. But if you pay him he even offers you to contact people from "beyond the other side". Or he helps you to develop your inner "medium" to do it yourself. Seriously? You claim that a source? I for my part refrain from taking someone serious in history - someone, who offers me to also talk with Elvis.
  3. Germany actually had ships rebuilt and stationed along the channel to transport full 3 armies for invasion.
PS - Edit: to transport full 3 armies in 2 waves.
 

lihp

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However,
- The article refers to a Sandhurst wargame.
- The article lists specific numbers of (insufficient) required maritime crews.
- The article points to a specific German exercise.

Since the ships for the invasion already travelled to their departure port in the channel on their own with their own crew,... Since that actually happened,... Since then your source is not only unreliable, but a blatant lie.

PS - edit: even the losses of these ships on their rebasing to their departure port is documented (losses which were actually below the expected 10% safety margin, set by Raeder).
 
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War Emblem

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Please dont mix comments up:
  1. First mention of Sealion was August 1939. I didnt check how much of a planning happened at that time. Checking this is imho kinda pointless.
  2. "The War at Sea - Royal and Dominion Navy Actions in World War 2" by Gordon Smith is not a source. Gordon Smith is not even a historican. But if you pay him he even offers you to contact people from "beyond the other side". Or he helps you to develop your inner "medium" to do it yourself. Seriously? You claim that a source? I for my part refrain from taking someone serious in history - someone, who offers me to also talk with Elvis.
  3. Germany actually had ships rebuilt and stationed along the channel to transport full 3 armies for invasion.
PS - Edit: to transport full 3 armies in 2 waves.

1. The mention of the Ark of the Covenant was 35. I'm not sure how much planning went into that, I guess it's kind of pointless now.
2.. So authors can't have dual careers? Just because you seem to mock extrasensory perception does not mean other people don't take it seriously. In any event one's work in one field has little to do with one's work as a historian. This is a tactic commonly used to slander points of view others disagree with. First, all authors have an agenda - especially in the field of WW2 history which is saturated with tens of thousands of titles. People need a hot take. Second, War at Sea very clearly lists actions and numbers involved. You can make your own assumptions on the readiness of the RN based on these.
3. Germany actually had half built hulks along the channel. To claim they were ready transports for 3 full armies is nonsense. As I said, Napoleon, operating almost 150 years before Germany had a much more comprehensive and advanced plan for invading England. In fact, after the sudden and unexpected fall of France you could argue that Germany foreign policy was all over the map. It almost reminds me of the current Trump administration - pick a fight with Syria, no maybe we want to mess with North Korea, oh let's antagonize Iran while we're at it. Germany looked around, decided to 'fight' an air war with Britain in 40 even though they had no realistic invasion plan to build upon this even had they 'won'. Air Doctrine experts clearly view this impossible as it breaks down logistically into a situation where how much more damage can they do to you than can do to them? History has shown us that unless one side is completely over-matched (say Iraq vs USAF) the air war takes years to have an effect. So, after suffering an unacceptable loss in pilots during the Battle of Britain, Germany called things off. Their adventures in Africa and the Balkans in 40/41 were more a result of shoring up their Italian allies as opposed to any strategic goals. So then they looked around and decided to invade the Soviets which effectively ended the war in 41 since they were never going to beat them. Do you really think Germany went into Poland thinking they would have to take Moscow, London and Washington DC? Of course not, but as we have seen endless times in history it is very easy to start a war but extremely hard to get out of one.
 

hkrommel

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Really? Thats the original Map of the OKH plan, 13 Infantry Divisions where picked for the first wave. Thats a total of 227.500 men plus the 2 Paratrooper Divisions securing Dover and Brighton. Germany had a total of over 500.000 men in France.

Napoleon had men in France, ships to transport them, a plan for invasion (he only needed 6 hours IIRC), and a plan to draw the RN out of the channel. His plan failed when Villenueve was an idiot and got into unnecessary battles, culminating in him breaking from the plan (against the objections of the Spanish Navy), getting into the Battle of Trafalgar, and being blockaded in Cadiz until the Peninsular War. The plan as a whole was risky but it was far more feasible than Sealion was historically.

The Germans had the men in place, but they were untrained for naval landings. They had a half-baked plan to deny channel access to the Royal Navy, but that required air superiority which they never attained and ignored the British resolve to prevent a landing (they were willing to beach a battleship and use it as coastal defense). They had half-built transport capacity, for which they didn't have enough crews and large amounts of which couldn't withstand even moderately choppy sea conditions. Even if they could undertake the landings (which they wouldn't have been able to buy enough time for) they couldn't reinforce or supply 250,000 men sufficiently to undertake offensive operations in hostile territory against a determined and larger British force.
 
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Napoleon had men in France, ships to transport them, a plan for invasion (he only needed 6 hours IIRC), and a plan to draw the RN out of the channel. His plan failed when Villenueve was an idiot and got into unnecessary battles, culminating in him breaking from the plan (against the objections of the Spanish Navy), getting into the Battle of Trafalgar, and being blockaded in Cadiz until the Peninsular War. The plan as a whole was risky but it was far more feasible than Sealion was historically.
.

The misadventures of Villenueve are fairly astonishing if you really break them down. Off topic but oh my. One could almost argue that Villenueve never wanted to get to the channel because he didn't want the responsibility of the naval invasion. When he accepts battle at Trafalgar you almost sense a degree of fatalism from him, he knew he couldn't go back to France after what he did so he his only chance was maybe a 20% hope of beating the RN.
 

hkrommel

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The misadventures of Villenueve are fairly astonishing if you really break them down. Off topic but oh my. One could almost argue that Villenueve never wanted to get to the channel because he didn't want the responsibility of the naval invasion. When he accepts battle at Trafalgar you almost sense a degree of fatalism from him, he knew he couldn't go back to France after what he did so he his only chance was maybe a 20% hope of beating the RN.

Absolutely. Last off-topic post from me but yeah, Napoleon never put the resources into his navy that he should have (he planned to after Russia, however), but in his defense his admirals never really gave him any incentive to. Why invest in something if it will be poorly-managed?
 

Balesir

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The misadventures of Villenueve are fairly astonishing if you really break them down. Off topic but oh my. One could almost argue that Villenueve never wanted to get to the channel because he didn't want the responsibility of the naval invasion. When he accepts battle at Trafalgar you almost sense a degree of fatalism from him, he knew he couldn't go back to France after what he did so he his only chance was maybe a 20% hope of beating the RN.
It's off topic, so I'll Spoiler-code it, but I'll post it, because I think it has some interesting messages for sea operations in strategy games:
I don't think you can say Villeneuve "accepted battle" at Trafalgar - he really had no choice. He was caught with Cape Trafalgar in his lee and the British fleet to windward in a very light breeze; he only had two real choices. He could keep going towards the Gibraltar straits, which is what the Emperor had ordered in order to land the troops on board in Naples to reinforce the French troops in Italy. Doing this held huge risks, however - his rearmost ships would probably be caught by the British, and reports of a British convoy heading for the straits suggested that he could be caught between two forces, a situation which would likely lead to total destruction of the French and Spanish Combined Fleet. His other option was to return to Cadiz; he took this option but took it so late that all it really achieved was to put ships with inexperienced crews into disorder just before battle was joined.

There is considerable evidence that Napoleon really did not understand sea warfare or maritime matters in general. He is reported as saying at one point "The Navy is always more willing to obey its barometers than my orders!", to which a well-judged response in the days of sail would be "damn right they are - wind and wave hold far more power over maritime warfare than you ever will!" An amusing example of the results of land generals trying to enforce operational timing at sea is the events of January and February 1805 in the Mediterranean. The French fleet is holed-up in Toulon; the British fleet is sheltering in Maddalena bay between Corsica and Sandinia, with an open blockade maintained by frigates and sloops outside Toulon (it's notable that Nelson is deliberately maintaining a loose blockade, here - he wants to entice the French fleet out to get a battle). For a few weeks there are Easterly winds, and the French fleet had shown no sign of movement. Then a north-westerly gale set in, and a dripping British fleet sees two blockade frigates incoming, firing signal guns and flying messages that the French fleet has put to sea. Nelson considers where the French fleet may be heading in a nor'wester and concludes that, since he knows they have troops on board, they must be heading for southern Italy, or maybe Egypt, again. He sets off in "pursuit". In fact, Admiral Villeneuve had been ordered to go west, to pick up a Spanish squadron at Cartagena. In a north-west gale. The French fleet found that going west in a north-westerly gale is hard (who knew?) What's more, when your ships have had no shakedown and your crews have been sat in port for weeks and have not had much experience sailing their current ships, trying to sail into a gale is dangerous and expensive. Well before Nelson realised that the French admiral had "fooled" him and returned to the blockade, the French fleet was back at Toulon with several injured men and broken spars, torn sails and lost rigging...

There is a larger point, here: it applies mainly to the "age of sail", but can be seen even in operations such as the Normandy landings in WW2. In sea warfare, you may have intentions, strategies and plans - and should certainly prepare for them as best you can - but the timing of your plan's execution is for neither Kings nor Emperors (nor even Admirals) to command, because it rests firmly within the province of the wind and the waters.
 
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