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lihp

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Opposite to what?
Sucessful invasion of the SU was far from impossible. Once it started (22nd June 1941) most mistakes were already made, which made it almost impossible to win. Worst part was actually a poor logistic planning by Halder for Barbarossa (apart from the additional mistakes I mentioned).

From the day the campaign started it was already close to impossible. But successfull invasion of SU as such in 1941 was definitly doable, even a realistic goal (had all thigns gone well).
 

dave1233

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2. They actually had the naval capacity for a Sealion for transport. Sealion was discarded since they were not able to cover an invasion by sea witht he Kriegsmarine.
They had river barges being towed by tugs without enough men to man them which would sink in anything rougher than sea state 2. I'm not sure that counts as transport.
 

REDDQ

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Sucessful invasion of the SU was far from impossible. Once it started (22nd June 1941) most mistakes were already made, which made it almost impossible to win. Worst part was actually a poor logistic planning by Halder for Barbarossa (apart from the additional mistakes I mentioned).

From the day the campaign started it was already close to impossible. But successfull invasion of SU as such in 1941 was definitly doable, even a realistic goal (had all thigns gone well).

Many mistakes were committed on BOTH sides. Red Army could as well defend itself better in '41. Truth is that unless Soviets were willing to commit mass suicide there was never a way for German Army to not bleed out from all the manpower. Not to mention of all the material they had. The whole Heer idea was to blitz through USSR, thankfully no one thought that you can't blitz through something the size of the USSR.
 

hkrommel

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Sucessful invasion of the SU was far from impossible. Once it started (22nd June 1941) most mistakes were already made, which made it almost impossible to win. Worst part was actually a poor logistic planning by Halder for Barbarossa (apart from the additional mistakes I mentioned).

From the day the campaign started it was already close to impossible. But successfull invasion of SU as such in 1941 was definitly doable, even a realistic goal (had all thigns gone well).

In Halder's defense the initial goals were impossible with the resources and timeframe allocated.

Many mistakes were committed on BOTH sides. Red Army could as well defend itself better in '41. Truth is that unless Soviets were willing to commit mass suicide there was never a way for German Army to not bleed out from all the manpower. Not to mention of all the material they had. The whole Heer idea was to blitz through USSR, thankfully no one thought that you can't blitz through something the size of the USSR.

Actually large numbers of generals thought a blitz wouldn't work, but they were overruled or kept their mouths shut because of what happened to generals who disagreed. A shorter series of operations rather than going for the kill in Barbarossa would have been more likely to be successful. What killed the Germans was Typhoon and Stalingrad/Uranus, which decimated their best and most experienced forces. Both were overextended operations that many generals rightfully objected to (Halder, for example, was sacked over the Stalingrad/Caucasus overextension). Basically the Germans were terrible at pacing themselves which made a war of endurance unwinnable for them, but better preparation and pacing may have made a difference. Either way it's a "what if" scenario that's highly dependent on what the Soviets do, but considering they didn't fight competently when they had the initiative until late 1942 (and that was mainly against the Romanians on the 6th army's flanks) the outcome would be far from certain.
 

lihp

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They had river barges being towed by tugs without enough men to man them which would sink in anything rougher than sea state 2. I'm not sure that counts as transport.

The if, when,.. is back and forth and we wont come to an agreement on this basis.

Did they have enough fleet transports? No.

Were there also ideas/plans using civilian ships, merchant ships,...? Yes. Would those suffice? Yes, for sure.

The result is nonetheless the same: The Kriegsmarine was unable to cover such an invasion. No way. Thats also the reason afaik why Sealion never happened.
 

lihp

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Many mistakes were committed on BOTH sides.
Yes, definitly.

Many mistakes were committed on BOTH sides. Red Army could as well defend itself better in '41. Truth is that unless Soviets were willing to commit mass suicide there was never a way for German Army to not bleed out from all the manpower. Not to mention of all the material they had.
Considering the progress until November 1941, the campaign for SU was actually almost won.

Drop the Dr. Sorge news (which enabled Stalin to move the troops from the east front to his west front) or make it a month earlier and it had been a game over SU - hands down.

The whole Heer idea was to blitz through USSR, thankfully no one thought that you can't blitz through something the size of the USSR.

Thats actually an urban myth. In HOI4 as well as in most maps, the SU appears to be so huge due to the "pole stretch" (the problem to create a 2d printed map based on a sphere). As such the SU appears to be 4 times as big as it really is.

Also weather and infrastructure adds to the impression the SU is so huge: harsh winter, Bessarabia rainy summer,...
 

lihp

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In Halder's defense the initial goals were impossible with the resources and timeframe allocated.

Recent analysis, including his diary, apparently show that he had already initiated plans on a SU campaign before he was ordered to do so.

My five cents on what I read in his diary and other sources:
  • Halder underestimated the daunting logistic task on barbarossa by far. As a result he ended up with an insufficient supply concept. Thats imho the possible worst mistake in military terms.
  • They expected to "kick the door and the whole rotten structure" to fall apart (quote). Halder believed that also. As such he underestimated the enemy. While the first 5 months apparently proved that evaluation,... Well, we know the outcome. He was educated, well experienced as well as 300 years of military family history - he definitly shoudl have known better.
Those are my five cents.

Dont get me wrong: I am happy the war didnt turn out different than history. Yet I consider it puzzlign how some "minor" mistakes, oversights or plain ignorance can have such an enormous impact. Things which shouldnt have happened at all given the involved parties and people as well as their background.
 

browd

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Yet I consider it puzzlign how some "minor" mistakes, oversights or plain ignorance can have such an enormous impact. Things which shouldnt have happened at all given the involved parties and people as well as their background.

As Napoleon said, "The greatest general is he who makes the fewest mistakes."
 

lihp

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As Napoleon said, "The greatest general is he who makes the fewest mistakes."

Too true.

I consider it already good how it was modeled in HOI3 with HPP mod. And I so hoped HOI4 would excel there... Alas - wishful thinking.
 

lihp

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The whole Heer idea was to blitz through USSR, thankfully no one thought that you can't blitz through something the size of the USSR.

Pulled Russia nowadays (blue) a lil bit down for you, closer to the equator. Size now looks far less impressive...

Unbenannt-1.jpg
 

Dalwin

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@Dalwin But is it realistic to completely cut of port even during night time? Assuming you have naval superiority, maybe the enemy could still sneak in meaningful supplies and reinforcements?
Even if it was not a completely 100% effective blockade, it should be enough to make keeping the troops supplied difficult and the cost of delivering what little did get through should be high.
 

Dalwin

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Correct me if I am wrong or outdated, but I believe that supply convoys don´t actually exist (as in replacement equipment convoys), as far as I remember, the replacement equipment is not transported and cannot be interdicted, as it appears to teleport from port to port. What can be interdicted is trade convoys importing resources and convoys transporting actual divisions. This has created situations in which players are landing paratroopers or marines/infantry divisions, taking a port and then changing templates to armor, for which the necessary equipment is never intercepted. This obviously avoids the risk of actually transporting the expensive armored divisions through the English Channel with the Royal Navy waiting to obliterate them. Most MP games I have participated in have rules against this for obvious reasons.



Actually, the USSR had clear intentions to invade Germany eventually, it only got preempted by Germany (if I remember correctly, the Soviets were targeting an invasion for 1942- 1943. I can recommend a very good book that partially covers this called "Stalin´s folly" by Constantin Pleshakov.
I am not 100% sure if replacement equipment can be sunk and lost, but what can be done is this. The supply convoys exist and can be attacked. Hitting them will reduce their efficiency which in turn will lower the supply capacity. This will slow down the rate at which replacements are received.

In theory it all works reasonably well. In practice you don't have enough effect. This is most likely something that could be fixed in a mod by tweaking a few numbers.
 

hkrommel

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Recent analysis, including his diary, apparently show that he had already initiated plans on a SU campaign before he was ordered to do so.

My five cents on what I read in his diary and other sources:
  • Halder underestimated the daunting logistic task on barbarossa by far. As a result he ended up with an insufficient supply concept. Thats imho the possible worst mistake in military terms.
  • They expected to "kick the door and the whole rotten structure" to fall apart (quote). Halder believed that also. As such he underestimated the enemy. While the first 5 months apparently proved that evaluation,... Well, we know the outcome. He was educated, well experienced as well as 300 years of military family history - he definitly shoudl have known better.
Those are my five cents.

Dont get me wrong: I am happy the war didnt turn out different than history. Yet I consider it puzzlign how some "minor" mistakes, oversights or plain ignorance can have such an enormous impact. Things which shouldnt have happened at all given the involved parties and people as well as their background.

Always take diaries, memoirs, etc. with a grain of salt, particularly those written under an authoritarian regime. The whole "late start" theory is largely invalid because the mud would have made large scale offensives impossible if they had done early Barbarossa rather than Yugoslavia, etc.

As to the larger point, there was one British historian (can't remember the name) who was actually talking about WWI who said that the Germans were really good at tactics, but completely inept at the operational and strategic levels. That's why the Germans don't win wars, but it takes a ton of effort to finally beat them.
 

REDDQ

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Yes, definitly.

Glad you agree. Because Germans got almost the best version of this war and still lost.

Considering the progress until November 1941, the campaign for SU was actually almost won.

Drop the Dr. Sorge news (which enabled Stalin to move the troops from the east front to his west front) or make it a month earlier and it had been a game over SU - hands down.

Far from it. Even if they could take Soviet cities (already mentioned Napoleon did, good for him), even if they could take oil fields the war was lost. It would just take way longer. With every kilometer taken logistics being that much harder and resistance fiercer. And losses are piling up. They just didn't have the manpower to win.


Thats actually an urban myth. In HOI4 as well as in most maps, the SU appears to be so huge due to the "pole stretch" (the problem to create a 2d printed map based on a sphere). As such the SU appears to be 4 times as big as it really is.

Also weather and infrastructure adds to the impression the SU is so huge: harsh winter, Bessarabia rainy summer,...
Check what the biggest country on Earth is now. And USSR was even bigger. You have real kilometers to go through, not the impression given to you by the pole stretch. About 1000 to Moscow and 2500 to Perm.
 

balmung60

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Pulled Russia nowadays (blue) a lil bit down for you, closer to the equator. Size now looks far less impressive...

View attachment 259013
You're right, instead of being "impossibly huge", it's merely "positively enormous".

But seriously, that map undermines your point - Russia, sans Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, and Kyrgyzstan (all parts of the USSR that are not part of modern Russia) still dwarfs everything else on the map. China, India, Iran, and Turkey all comfortably fit in there.

For another point of comparison, the Soviet Union was 2.27x the size of the USA, or 2.77x the size of the continental USA.

Yes, pole stretch makes the USSR look even bigger, but let's not kid ourselves and say it wasn't insanely brobdingnagian, utterly dwarfing many countries that most sane people would already admit are so large as to be utterly implausible to invade.
 

lihp

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Far from it. Even if they could take Soviet cities (already mentioned Napoleon did, good for him), even if they could take oil fields the war was lost. It would just take way longer. With every kilometer taken logistics being that much harder and resistance fiercer. And losses are piling up. They just didn't have the manpower to win.

Imho there is a simple truth to Stalin staying in Moscow: with Moscow fallen also, a surrender would be imminent. So basically we are talking about something like 40 - 200 km (depending on the view). Thats damn close....

Check what the biggest country on Earth is now.
Always depends on how you define "biggest". If you define it by length of border or amount of people, then it is not Russia...

About 1000 to Moscow and 2500 to Perm.
I doubt a SU surrender would have required jetting all the way to Perm...
 

balmung60

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So you read one book and decide that army which pwned all europe was too weak for invasion in UK? Wehrmacht was strongest army in the world in 1940. The reason why Hitler did not do that was that he decide to do Barbarossa. He thought that if USSR will fall so fast as it was designed in war plans, UK will capitulate aswell and USA will not join to war.
Okay, so even taking the assertion that the German army was the strongest in the world at face value, the German army isn't the problem with pulling off Sealion, as all the Wehrmacht could hope to do was stare angrily across the Channel. Sealion depended on the utter annihilation of the RAF and the Home Fleet deciding to just call it quits, and on top of that, for Mother Nature to play really nice. The first point was impossible because the RAF was growing throughout the entirety of the Battle of Britain, while the Luftwaffe dwindled (and no, Germany never had the RAF on the ropes as the RAF still had completely fresh forces in Scotland they could have rotated in if they were actually needed, and you must think the British are a truly weak-willed people if you think a few months of strategic bombing from tactical bombers was going to break them when years of far more intense bombing failed to break the Germans). The second was also not likely to happen, since defending Britain proper was literally the entire job of the Home Fleet and the Kriegsmarine was a joke with no hope of defeating them in the field. And the third was necessary because Germany did not have the kinds of merchant shipping needed to actually land and supply an amphibious invasion and would have had to rely on river barges that would have suffered horrible attrition in the rough waters of the English Channel.

TL;DR version: The army's strength isn't the problem, it's the fact that it cannot get where it needs to be to fight the enemy it would have to to actually score a knockout and it wasn't going to win without a knockout.
 

lihp

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Yes, pole stretch makes the USSR look even bigger, but let's not kid ourselves and say it wasn't insanely brobdingnagian, utterly dwarfing many countries that most sane people would already admit are so large as to be utterly implausible to invade.

So far I fully agree with you. Still two things need to be added:
1. How much is Tundra, arctic climate or desert?
2. What were the real life Victory Points (HOI speak)? I suspect in December 41 the only missing VP was Moscow - being the reason why Stalin didnt flee Moscow. Admittedly I dont know (and none probably knows) for sure.
 

balmung60

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So far I fully agree with you. Still two things need to be added:
1. How much is Tundra, arctic climate or desert?
2. What were the real life Victory Points (HOI speak)? I suspect in December 41 the only missing VP was Moscow - being the reason why Stalin didnt flee Moscow. Admittedly I dont know (and none probably knows) for sure.
1.) A lot is that, yes, but you're still looking at a huge amount of land in the east in the same ballpark as trying to bite off everything in the continental USA west of New Mexico and Colorado (assuming their western border stretched all the way to the Canadian border).
2.) Major victory points? Moscow, Stalingrad, Leningrad, and Vladivostok. And yes, the Germans got close to Moscow, but what makes you think taking Moscow would be easy? The real fun would happen if they actually tried to enter the city and make it theirs, as we can see from the Battles of Stalingrad and Leningrad (neither of which fell, despite German boots in the cities), and there's no reason to think Moscow would be any easier than Stalingrad.

If there's one thing that is far, far, far, far too easy in the land war in HOI, it's taking cities. If someone did not want you to take a city, they could turn it into a meat grinder that turned whole armies into piles of corpses. Meanwhile, in HOI, you can simply waltz in and take it in a few hours by having a second division attack the city.