Religious Rebel Movement, Again.

[bly08]

I restarted 7 times, and each time the rebels choose to run into my army in Borisoglebsk. None of the neighboring provinces have unrest. Etkara, Saratov, and Ukek are Sunni. Lower Don is Catholic. Ukek is in Asia, rest are in Europe. Lower Don and Borisoglebsk are in the same state/area as Beljamen. According to the movement modifiers units_in_province halves the factor. Please, @Chaingun, give me a clue, hint, explanation, anything, of what the modifiers are aside from the ones listed below. This is painful.

Edit: I also restarted from the month prior in case movement is decided at the start of the month. There's no unrest beyond that direction so it's unlikely they're moving through Borisoglebsk to get to somewhere else.

None of Borisoglebsk's neighboring provinces are Orthodox:

movement_evaluation = {
factor = 1
modifier = {
factor = 0.5
units_in_province = 1
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.001
controlled_by = REB
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.0
religion = orthodox
owner = { religion = orthodox }
}
modifier = {
factor = 2.0
NOT = { religion = orthodox }
any_neighbor_province = {
religion = orthodox
NOT = { has_province_modifier = "forced_conversion" }
}
}
modifier = {
factor = 5
has_missionary = yes
religion = orthodox
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
unrest = 2
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
unrest = 4
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
unrest = 6