tl;dr Drastically nerf colonisation speed and settler chance, possibly also colonial range and federations
In the real world, colonisation was very slow until things became more established (and half the natives were wiped out by the flu), then sped up in later centuries. This hasn't been replicated in EU4, however. Spain and Portugal colonise everything in sight, leaving little for the likes of Britain and the Netherlands.
With this in mind, I started to think about how to rebalance things. The most obvious step is of course to nerf early colony growth, which I tried as follows:
The second issue is settler chance - there are many different routes for nations to gain this, which means that it's often around 40% before 1600. Back in 1.19, the mechanic was changed so that the chance decreased the larger the colony was, instead of growing. This was never properly explained and never made any sense, so at first I made this a positive modifier again. I then halved it, but have now settled on just removing it altogether. Having it decrease doesn't make any sense, and the myriad other sources more than make up for it. I have, however, halved the base value (to 5%) to slow down early colonisation.
All of this seems drastic, but to be honest I think if anything it might still be slightly too fast. Compare the 1600 bookmark:
To the same date from an observer game with all these nerfs:
Note the colonised Cape and Australia. I wonder if colonial range might need a rebalance too, at least in some regions of the world.
Slower colonisation does have one big knock-on effect that needs to be addressed. North American natives have much more time to form huge federations. This didn't happen in reality until European colonisation forced them to band together at a larger level than before, so perhaps further balancing is needed to slow down the natives too. This is likely also a contributing factor to the speed of new world conquests, as vast swathes are already colonised by federations.
As an aside, in the real world Spain's early colonisation of the Americas mainly consisted of their conquests of the Aztecs and Inca. However, their missions for perma-claims in Mexico are locked behind colonising the Caribbean. This would not normally be a problem were it not for the fact that Portugal also has an early mission to colonise there, is nearer, is Catholic, and is invariably friends with Spain, so in-game Spain normally respects the Treaty of Tordesillas and ends up colonising North America instead, far earlier than this happened in reality.
As Portugal never extensively colonised the Caribbean historically, there is a case to be made that they should not have that early mission. At the very least it should be later on in the tree, or changed to a simple 'discovery' mission rather than colonisation. Spain's mission could also instead require discovery. Of course, reworking Tordesillas is probably the best option here, to avoid too much railroading.
Obviously, and I've always wanted to say this, the figures you see here are by no means final - I just hope this gives the devs some food for thought for future balancing.
In the real world, colonisation was very slow until things became more established (and half the natives were wiped out by the flu), then sped up in later centuries. This hasn't been replicated in EU4, however. Spain and Portugal colonise everything in sight, leaving little for the likes of Britain and the Netherlands.
With this in mind, I started to think about how to rebalance things. The most obvious step is of course to nerf early colony growth, which I tried as follows:
| Dip Tech | Settler Increase (Current) | Settler Increase (New) |
| 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 3 | 15 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | 5 |
| 15 | 15 | 10 |
| 23 | 25 | 20 |
| 26 | 25 | 25 |
| 32 | 50 | 50 |
The second issue is settler chance - there are many different routes for nations to gain this, which means that it's often around 40% before 1600. Back in 1.19, the mechanic was changed so that the chance decreased the larger the colony was, instead of growing. This was never properly explained and never made any sense, so at first I made this a positive modifier again. I then halved it, but have now settled on just removing it altogether. Having it decrease doesn't make any sense, and the myriad other sources more than make up for it. I have, however, halved the base value (to 5%) to slow down early colonisation.
All of this seems drastic, but to be honest I think if anything it might still be slightly too fast. Compare the 1600 bookmark:
To the same date from an observer game with all these nerfs:
Note the colonised Cape and Australia. I wonder if colonial range might need a rebalance too, at least in some regions of the world.
Slower colonisation does have one big knock-on effect that needs to be addressed. North American natives have much more time to form huge federations. This didn't happen in reality until European colonisation forced them to band together at a larger level than before, so perhaps further balancing is needed to slow down the natives too. This is likely also a contributing factor to the speed of new world conquests, as vast swathes are already colonised by federations.
As an aside, in the real world Spain's early colonisation of the Americas mainly consisted of their conquests of the Aztecs and Inca. However, their missions for perma-claims in Mexico are locked behind colonising the Caribbean. This would not normally be a problem were it not for the fact that Portugal also has an early mission to colonise there, is nearer, is Catholic, and is invariably friends with Spain, so in-game Spain normally respects the Treaty of Tordesillas and ends up colonising North America instead, far earlier than this happened in reality.
As Portugal never extensively colonised the Caribbean historically, there is a case to be made that they should not have that early mission. At the very least it should be later on in the tree, or changed to a simple 'discovery' mission rather than colonisation. Spain's mission could also instead require discovery. Of course, reworking Tordesillas is probably the best option here, to avoid too much railroading.
Obviously, and I've always wanted to say this, the figures you see here are by no means final - I just hope this gives the devs some food for thought for future balancing.
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