So, I've finally poked around in the defines and tactics file. My results are mixed.
It seems like FM with Aggressive Assaulter has some impact on tactics selection, but the impact is barely enough to register.
I ran a number of tests with large, non-urban front with around 16 individual battles per day. I tested with a field marshal that had no Aggressive Assaulter and then with the trait. Then I tested with the trait again, but modded the tactics file so that the weight for having the trait went from 2 to 20000. After that, I modded the file again to take away the reduction in chance to fire the tactic in open terrain.
The results were odd.
With no aggressive assaulter and no modding, there were no assault tactics pulled at all throughout four tests.
With aggressive assaulter applied and no modding, there were a few assault tactics pulled. Some tests produced 6.25% assault tactics selection. Other tests produced no assault tactics selected.
With aggressive assaulter applied and a weight of 20000 applied to tactics selection for having the trait, I pulled around 6.25% assault tactics in all tests.
With aggressive assaulter applied and a weight of 20000 applied to tactics selection for having the trait, and the terrain modifiers removed completely, I got wildly different results. In some tests, I had over 30% assault tactics applied. In others, it was closer to 19%. In one, it was only 6.25% of battles.
My initial tests seem like they have too small of a sample size, but I'm open to the possibility that I'm screwing up the RNG seed in the save games in some way, resulting in duplicate results across tests that are not RNG.
One of the things that makes getting large data samples difficult is that the moment you pull assault, the next day you swap to close combat phase. So, that combat on the map can't be used anymore to poll the effectiveness of FM traits. So, I basically have to reload or clear all attacks and restart them every game day.