http://eu3wiki.com/Revolt_risk
says Revolt risk is a province's monthly chance to spawn a rebel army.
Surely it means yearly chance, right?
I got in a bit of a war with Castile, but I managed to give them military access right before they declared on me so they went to -3 stability from +3 and they're getting +6% revolt risk in all their provinces just from that. Add a pretty big war exhaustion and their entire country is at over 12% RR. The Muslim provinces are at 25%+. Yet I see no sign of rebels, it's been near a year. Is there something else in play here or is it simply a yearly chance and not monthly? Meaning the monthly chance is 1/12th of that. Even so with 1% chance per month and 20 provinces surely they're long overdue?
BTW I tried to use a spy to Support Revolt, but it only gives a +3% chance? Nothing else? No hidden modifiers or rebel friendliness?
At least I know now that if I directly support Nationalist/Patriot/Pretender Rebels then a small rebel army spawns immediately (and is friendly to me), but that costs a lot more money.
PS: While I was trying some stuff reloading repeatedly the game I was declaring war on Morocco several times (crusade) and one time Scottish Rebels spawned on me immediately in the Highlands right after my DoW. I didn't even unpause the game. I didn't know that could happen.