Quick and Dirty 2: A Soviet Resurgence and WW3 (HOI3 - March 1944 start)

[El Pip]

The Red Banner Pacific Fleet is a motley collection of wrecks isn't it? Still it gets the job done which is the main thing, though I have no doubt the crews are all desperately hoping they never meet an enemy fleet!

The Kaganovich is storied ship, in OTL it got renamed twice. First time because the original namesake was purged, the second time because the person it was renamed after also got purged. Nothing to do with the story, just makes me chuckle.


Good to see the Allies making progress despite the AIs best efforts. SE Asia will be liberated, even if it is mostly by accident.

 

[Surt]

You should not use 45% on supply production, instead upgrade the infra in the provinces furthest from the supply source that has hatched supply. Only go 5% over required.
The supply deficit at the central front is nearly certain supplies being redirected north and vanishing in bad supply throughput provinces. Also research everything that lessen supply throughput cost.

 

[Wraith11B]

See, this is a failure of the game logistics system. I can not think of a single loggo worth his salt who ever "Returned to Sender" supply. For damn sure, even in Iraq in 2010 when nothing really offensive was going on, I still had a pile of MREs, more ammo, etc than I could ever foresee needing, but there really wasn't any urge to give it back to Big Army.

Paradox made the system simple in allowing it to move just one hex a day. The issue is that supply didn't move like that. Where some hexes are just 20-40km apart, no one is going to say "Yep, that's far enough!" They're going to move as long as they have daylight and even longer if they can safely move at night. Thinking of the Red Ball Express, they moved as much as possible around the clock, even at a significant fuel penalty, which, to be fair, only the Americans could really afford at the time. Maybe super close to the front line they couldn't always get reliable supply, but by and large, as long as supply trains weren't under stress, the rear areas could get it.

 

[El Pip]

Firstly I must agree with my associate Wraith's points above, the main issue is the HOI3 supply system is bobbins. However I can answer your supply question (which I forgot to last time)

[Question: apart from infrastructure, does anyone know if poor weather also affects supply distribution/throughput, noting it affects ordinary ground movement?]

Certain weather does affect supply distribution. In the Defines.lua file (where Paradox hides many settings) you will find this line -
MUDDYNESSSUPPLYTAXMODIFIER = 0.25,

Which, as it suggests, increases the 'supply tax' by 25% in muddy conditions. This was done to reflect the problems on the Eastern Front during mud season and then Paradox blindly copied it to the rest of the world. Base supply tax is pretty bad (to move 1 unit of supply, 1 province, costs 0.1 supply) so a 25% hike in the tax can eat up a lot of supplies.

 

[Bullfilter]

You should not use 45% on supply production, instead upgrade the infra in the provinces furthest from the supply source that has hatched supply. Only go 5% over required.
The supply deficit at the central front is nearly certain supplies being redirected north and vanishing in bad supply throughput provinces. Also research everything that lessen supply throughput cost.

Quick answer: I have been upgrading the infrastructure for the whole supply line from Moscow repeatedly, with more in the production queue - though of course you can’t upgrade a newly won province until you occupy it. And it takes time for the upgrades to finish. All supply techs are on continuous research and are up to or beyond the ‘on time‘ benchmarks. I had to keep increasing the IC for supply production because it would have run out in a few weeks otherwise. Currently, the production screen says around 50-60 IC is required, but even at 180 it’s barely keeping the stockpile steady. And that’s reflecting gross consumption, not throughput per se (though it must include wastage ‘tax’). I’m at a loss for what else can be done Other than keep just plugging away.

 

[Surt]

Firstly I must agree with my associate Wraith's points above, the main issue is the HOI3 supply system is bobbins. However I can answer your supply question (which I forgot to last time)


Certain weather does affect supply distribution. In the Defines.lua file (where Paradox hides many settings) you will find this line -
MUDDYNESSSUPPLYTAXMODIFIER = 0.25,

Which, as it suggests, increases the 'supply tax' by 25% in muddy conditions. This was done to reflect the problems on the Eastern Front during mud season and then Paradox blindly copied it to the rest of the world. Base supply tax is pretty bad (to move 1 unit of supply, 1 province, costs 0.1 supply) so a 25% hike in the tax can eat up a lot of supplies.

So when (in black ice at least) the tech Supply Tranportation says -0.1 Supply Transfer Cost it should go away? or is that a per province reduction?
When I move 1500 supplies 1 hex it costs 150 supply, moving it to somewhere 100 distance away (Berlin to (T)Omsk?) should cost 15000 ... so how much cost reduction do i get for my -0.1.

 

[Surt]

Quick answer: I have been upgrading the infrastructure for the whole supply line from Moscow repeatedly, with more in the production queue - though of course you can’t upgrade a newly won province until you occupy it. And it takes time for the upgrades to finish. All supply techs are on continuous research and are up to or beyond the ‘on time‘ benchmarks. I had to keep increasing the IC for supply production because it would have run out in a few weeks otherwise. Currently, the production screen says around 50-60 IC is required, but even at 180 it’s barely keeping the stockpile steady. And that’s reflecting gross consumption, not throughput per se (though it must include wastage ‘tax’). I’m at a loss for what else can be done Other than keep just plugging away.

The problem here is that upgrading from Moscow usually doesn't solve the problem as its the last provinces that causes it all to explode, so upgrading from the furthest bad supply and backward is usually better. When the furthest unit (which is the one that is served first) request everything is mostly fine, when the next unit (that) can't get its supply it covered it will go over a different route incurring more supply tax, this continues until the demand in Moscow is rather large.

 

[Bullfilter]

The problem here is that upgrading from Moscow usually doesn't solve the problem as its the last provinces that causes it all to explode, so upgrading from the furthest bad supply and backward is usually better. When the furthest unit (which is the one that is served first) request everything is mostly fine, when the next unit (that) can't get its supply it covered it will go over a different route incurring more supply tax, this continues until the demand in Moscow is rather large.

Given it takes quite a while for the infra upgrades to chime in, and they’re only incremental improvements anyway, looks like I’m stuck with the problem.

 

[El Pip]

So when (in black ice at least) the tech Supply Tranportation says -0.1 Supply Transfer Cost it should go away? or is that a per province reduction?
When I move 1500 supplies 1 hex it costs 150 supply, moving it to somewhere 100 distance away (Berlin to (T)Omsk?) should cost 15000 ... so how much cost reduction do i get for my -0.1.

In vanilla game the reduction is -0.01 and that is taken to mean it knocks 0.01 off the supply transfer cost, so it becomes 0.09 (before other modifiers).

If Black Ice has the same base transfer cost (as per the .lua file) then in theory a reduction of -0.1 would indeed make supply transfer go away. BUT Paradox are awful at decimal point consistency, as we've discussed in this thread they are really bad at mixing up absolute values and percentages, often in the same file, and then refusing to document things. So it is entirely possible that the setting is a percent not an absolute, i.e. Black Ice are using -0.1 as that gives a 10% reduction and that is what is intended, where as vanilla tech gives you 1% reduction in cost as Paradox mucked it up.

Basically someone is wrong either Black Ice are too generous or Paradox left a bug in the original game and never noticed it. My suspicion is Paradox because they have form, but it's possible Black Ice were wrong.

 

[diskoerekto]

If the Japanese navy is hunting convoys thus we cannot ship supplies directly from Leningrad to the Pacific coast, we can at least use transport planes to at least patch up problematic points and do supply airlifts? What do the supply experts say?

 

[serutan]

There's always Arcade Mode...

 

[Bullfilter]

There's always Arcade Mode...

Haha, I guess so, but I will not surrender to such expediency ... no matter how insidiously tempting an idea it is. <closes eyes, dreams, but then shakes self awake and starts whipping own back with a birch rod>

 

[roverS3]

Looks like winter is still a thing in 1946... and yes, transportation of supplies costs more over mud.

The Red Army is clearly suffering from it's own success, as it's advanced beyond the reach of it's larger Air Bases. Those losses to Japanese bombs are substantial, but they can definitely be absorbed by the Soviet manpower pool.

I also wonder why the Marines performed an amphibious landing on Okha from a vulnerable fleet. They would have been just as effective crossing the Strait of Tartary from Nikolaevsk na Amure. I think the risk of the IJN disrupting the landings and sinking part of your fleet wasn't worth a slight benefit you get from attacking from 2 sides. Of course, if you knew the province was empty, I do think it was land the Marines from the fleet than to drop them in Nikolaevsk and have them cross the strait.

Anyhow, the last big point are significant advances in Submarine design. This is great news. Maybe, in 10-15 years, the Soviet Union will be able to launch missiles from nuclear-powered submarines? Maybe we'll even beat the Americans to it?

 

[Wraith11B]

In reference to the mud, I want to say that the mud effect also is regardless of the level of infra of the province, which is a failing to think through the problem (and a failure of Paradox to build a more granular logistic/infrastructure system).

 

[El Pip]

In reference to the mud, I want to say that the mud effect also is regardless of the level of infra of the province, which is a failing to think through the problem (and a failure of Paradox to build a more granular logistic/infrastructure system).

The problem with the mud effect is it increases the cost of moving supply but not the amount you can move. So if you have enough stockpiled supplies you can just power on through without stopping your offensive, even if the IC cost is high.

What the mud effect should do is reduce throughput, stopping supplies getting to the front at all. I agree you could add a level of detail with trains still being able to move supplies efficiently, but the mud effect still applies to the 'last mile' from depot to the front - the trucks (or horses if you are Germany) will still get stuck in the mud even if the trains don't. It would also do a much better job of simulating the Monsoon season in Burma which just shut everything down.

 

[Bullfilter]

On weather and supply: so is it only mud that has that effect, or is it the severe winter weather as well? I haven’t checked in detail recently, but things would still be too frozen for mud to be a problem, I imagine.

 

[El Pip]

On weather and supply: so is it only mud that has that effect, or is it the severe winter weather as well? I haven’t checked in detail recently, but things would still be too frozen for mud to be a problem, I imagine.

Fairly certain it is only mud. There is a Cold Movement Modifier separate from the Mud Movement modifier, so they are separate things from that perspective. Certainly there is no explicit cold/frozen supply modifier in the settings.

Yet another over-simplification in the supply system for @Wraith11B to sigh about.

 

[Wraith11B]

You know, I really do understand that there's just some point in time when a developer has to say, "Are we getting to the point of the pasta rule?"

That said, if something affects movement, it better affect all movement...

 

[El Pip]

You know, I really do understand that there's just some point in time when a developer has to say, "Are we getting to the point of the pasta rule?"

We should also admit that the last time Paradox tried to do complex it produced the Victoria 2 economic system, which is quite the train wreck. Sure artisans producing tanks out of fruit is a bit of a meme but it's alarmingly close to the truth in places.

So given that Paradox can't do complex, it was probably for the best that they kept to simple.

That said, if something affects movement, it better affect all movement...

I am reasonably happy with the idea of supply movement and attack movement having different modifiers. Freezing conditions mean you have to shift more supplies (cold weather gear, etc) and more fuel (having to keep engines running all night so they don't freeze up, etc) but it doesn't actually make it that much harder to shift supplies. It's an increase in quantity not difficulty.

Admittedly Paradox don't really model this at all, so I'm still agreeing they have got it wrong. And that's the important thing.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

I'm a bit behind once again, but here I come heroically playing catch-up, comrades!

A surprisingly busy month for the dead of winter, at least along some fronts. The Red war machine grinds ever onwards!

As the new year of 1946 opens, winter continues to exert a firm grip. The latest Soviet attack on Ushumun, which began on 30 December, goes on, while a major new Soviet attack began on Chegdomyn on 1 January: it would prove to be one of the biggest battles of the campaign so far, with the air forces of both sides weighing in. For example, the poor weather in Chegdomyn lowers the effectiveness of the Soviet attack by an estimated -21.9%.

I suspect that this will become an ongoing theme this month...and in the following.

With no effective Soviet fighter cover nearby, a brand new air base (one was being held ready) was built in Nikolayevsk na Amure. A base upgrade to level 2 facilities was started the next day, as hardly any repairs were yet possible in the bare-bones base.

Truly a marvel of Soviet engineering, that.

On the morning of 5 January, the last of the northern pocket was eliminated in Susuman.

Vur h--erm, I mean, Da, komrade!

Early on 8 January, all the transports in Ulya were merged into the Red Banner Pacific Fleets, the 1st Marine Division was loaded up, and they all sailed south for the first Soviet amphibious operation of the war. Their destination was Okha in northern Sakhalin, opposite Nikolayevsk na Amure, which was now crucially able to offer air cover for the invasion fleet.

I admit, I'm not really sure why this move makes any strategic sense. It looked like on the map a division was already crossing the strait, and I don't see a Japanese navy preventing that crossing. I suppose getting the Marines into the action is a reason, but why expose the navy to do so?

The main reason for this inaction, on the Soviet side at least, was clearly recurrent supply problems.

Same old song and dance...

Level 3 radar station upgrades were completed in Kaunas, Lwow and Brzesc Litewski on 15 and 16 January, part of the growing radar network on the Western Front. Improvement of each to the next level was started immediately and given the highest production priority.

Not entirely sure why we're making this investment? I get the in-universe explanation of intel, but personally I've always thought of radars as a bit useless for land wars, since knowing where the AI's troops are hardly is needed to beat the AI handily.

The campaign in Australia had been successfully wrapped up, however [giving your humble authAAR a warm inner glow, at least].

I'll drink to that, mate!

The Red Banner Pacific Fleet is a motley collection of wrecks isn't it? Still it gets the job done which is the main thing, though I have no doubt the crews are all desperately hoping they never meet an enemy fleet!

I'll refrain from ranting on the subject, but looking at Paradox's motley and haphazard assignment of CA versus CL irritates me to no end, particularly given the artificial and ahistorical capital/screen designation split between the two.

See, this is a failure of the game logistics system. I can not think of a single loggo worth his salt who ever "Returned to Sender" supply. For damn sure, even in Iraq in 2010 when nothing really offensive was going on, I still had a pile of MREs, more ammo, etc than I could ever foresee needing, but there really wasn't any urge to give it back to Big Army.

Paradox made the system simple in allowing it to move just one hex a day. The issue is that supply didn't move like that. Where some hexes are just 20-40km apart, no one is going to say "Yep, that's far enough!" They're going to move as long as they have daylight and even longer if they can safely move at night. Thinking of the Red Ball Express, they moved as much as possible around the clock, even at a significant fuel penalty, which, to be fair, only the Americans could really afford at the time. Maybe super close to the front line they couldn't always get reliable supply, but by and large, as long as supply trains weren't under stress, the rear areas could get it.

I'm in the minority as I do actually like the supply system, at least when I'm not actively cursing it in-situ. It's certainly far from perfect and a crude approximation, at best, of a real-world logistics network, but it accomplishes the metagame task of causing logistics to be both necessary and important to pay mind to, and infuriatingly opaque and impossible to truly control under anything less than pristine conditions. Thus, in spite of its manifold flaws, it does reflect real life with shocking accuracy in the end.

The problem here is that upgrading from Moscow usually doesn't solve the problem as its the last provinces that causes it all to explode, so upgrading from the furthest bad supply and backward is usually better. When the furthest unit (which is the one that is served first) request everything is mostly fine, when the next unit (that) can't get its supply it covered it will go over a different route incurring more supply tax, this continues until the demand in Moscow is rather large.

This is broadly true, although one need not upgrade the very end of the bad supply but rather start upgrading near one's rear lines, so to speak. The supply system is supposed to be designed to supply the farthest units first, which means that if not enough total supply makes its way to the troops the rear areas will tend to be hit harder, all else being equal (which it usually isn't).

There's always Arcade Mode...

Heresy, only to be expected from a submarine proponent!