Question on declaring war, factions, WWII and the monroe doctrine (confused?)

[GrounchoVilla]

I'm Mexico. It's late 1942. I'm involved in WWII and unified with central America and have all of South America save Ecuador, Brazil and Uruguay in the Bolivarian Alliance (and got my Sunset Invasion achievement.) I was thinking of uniting with the Caribbean, but I think I'm too late now - when I look at the diplomatic option to declare war on DR and Cuba, it lists the US as a potential enemy. When you do the March Southward focuses in 1940, the US is NOT listed as a potential enemy in spite of guaranteeing the independence of those countries (probably because you are also a Latin American country). I think the US no longer cares if you're a Latin American country once world tension gets sufficiently high though (I dont know how high).

I'm currently fighting alongside the US in WWII against the Axis and Japan.

In a previous game that got a little messed up, when I did this, DR and Cuba joined the Axis, but that was in late 1941 I believe (I dont know if that makes a difference).

If Mexico declares war on Cuba right now, will it join the Axis, or will the US betray their wartime ally to stop expansionism in Latin America? What about the fascist Dominican Republic?

This is a historical run, and I have a net positive relationship with the US. I also have a non-aggression pact with them that they pushed when I joined WWII

 

[Bunnytob]

I think it's most likely that Cuba will autojoin the Axis, though I can't be certain.
As for the guarantees part, it's the whole "If both countries are guaranteed by the same country, the guarantor can't do anything" rule.

 

[RAID186]

Do the US still guarantee you?

 

[squid_hills]

The issue is that the US ignores it's guarantees as long as both nations (attacker and defender) are from the western hemisphere. In other words, Mexico can declare war on anyone and everyone in South and Central America and the US won't lift a finger to stop them, but if anyone in Europe declares on Peru, the US will step in.

Until a certain point, that is. That point is a focus on their tree called "Reinforce Monroe Doctrine" (I think... its been a while since I checked). That focus forces the US to actually adhere to the guarantees they've spammed onto South and Central America, and it ends a player's dream of conquering all of South America pretty quickly. In historical mode, the US usually does this focus in mid-1943. Sometimes they do it a little sooner. In non-historical, the US can do it at any time. My guess is they've finished that focus and now will honor the commitments they've made to the rest of SA. Whereas you did March Southward early enough to avoid it.