There is general agreement, I think, that Espionage is an aspect of the game that is in need of attention and could be a good area of focus for a major DLC release. I believe one interesting possibility is an Espionage mechanic with real meaning to the outcome of the game. If such a mechanic could be employed, I think it should be oriented around the core advantage of espionage: obtaining valuable information about your enemies and allies.
Think of the process that the player goes through when deciding whether or not to go to war. You access the ledger to size up your intended target and their allies: army strength, naval strength, income, technology level, etc. You look at the map and assess the size and position of their armies and fleets. You evaluate the stats of their generals and admirals. You check for unmaintained forts you can try to put under siege before they garrison them. You check your declare war screen to see which of your allies, and which of theirs, will answer the call to war. All of this information is incredibly valuable to deciding whether to go to war and how you intend to fight one if you do. It’s all right at the fingertip of the player. And it’s all perfectly correct. This is one of the most unrealistic aspects of the game at the moment.
I propose one potential answer to this problem that could dramatically change how the game is played, but in the most subtle of ways, and at the same time make Espionage ideas much more valuable and potentially one of those “go to” idea groups.
Fundamentally, the information in the ledger should be made less “perfect.” Even today, with satellite imagery and modern telecommunications, it simply isn’t possible to know all of the information about another country that is currently found in the ledger. Instead, the ledger should reflect “estimated” troop and navy levels. There would be a standard range applied to ledger values (a multiplier of 1 + RNG(-0.2 to 0.2), for instance). This estimate could be modified to be more or less accurate depending on any number of factors (eg. size of country, shared border, active diplomat, ally, military access, rival, culture group, hostile relations, etc.). And the accuracy of this estimate could be further modified by 100% minus your “Espionage Efficiency.” The random seed should persist for a given period of time, changing periodically, perhaps by event, or monarch death, or new tech level. The ledger would show a single value, a "point estimate," based on the actual value, random seed, and modifiers.
Factors that are applied to the range reflect real effects of the situation and/or player actions. My list for example:
Large country (>5 provinces) = x1.1 A larger country is more difficult to cover with spies
Shared border = x0.8 Proximity increases access and chances of observation
Active diplomat = x0.9 A diplomat in the country doubles as an intelligence agent
Ally = 0.0x Open disclosure with allies removes uncertainty
Military access = x0.75 It’s more difficult to hide your military capabilities from other countries with access
Rival = x0.9 You have active intelligence gathering operations against your rivals
Different culture group = x1.3 It’s harder to infiltrate foreign cultures
Let’s say for the moment, that every country begins the game with an Espionage Efficiency of 25%, which increases at given Diplo tech levels.
For example, at the November 11, 1444 bookmark, Austria has 27,000 infantry troops and 10,000 cavalry troops. Suppose I am playing Bohemia, and I have begun to fabricate a claim on Austria, who is a rival. The math, based on these factors is:
[(1 + RNG(-0.2 to 0.2) * (Modifiers (Large 1.1 * Shared border 0.8 * Active diplomat 0.9 * Rival 0.9 * Different culture 1.3) * (100% - 25% Espionage Efficiency)]
As a result, the ledger may show me anything from 23,000 to 31,000 infantry troops and 9,000 to 11,000 cavalry (rounded to the nearest full strength army) for Austria.
Now suppose that I am ready to attack Austria and they have allied Hungary (with whom I am increasing relations), Alsace, Provence, and Trier (who is also my ally). Applying the math again, the ledger would reflect a point estimate value in the range of:
Hungary: 11,000 to 15,000 Infantry (real value 13,000) and 4,000 to 6,000 Cavalry (real value 5,000)
Alsace: 3,000 to 5,000 Infantry (real value 4,000) and 1,000 Cavalry (real value 1,000)
Provence: 6,000 to 10,000 Infantry (real value 8,000) and 2,000 Cavalry (real value 2,000)
Trier: because I am also allied to Trier I see their actual values of 5,000 Infantry and 1,000 Cavalry
Now instead of seeing that I will face exactly 57,000 Infantry and 19,000 Cavalry, I may see an opponent that is anywhere from 48,000 Infantry and 17,000 Cavalry strong at the low end to 66,000 Infantry and 21,000 Cavalry at the high end. And I won't know whether I am looking at a number that is high or low in the scale, so I may further adjust it in my thinking (given a number of 65,000 Infantry, for instance, I may assume they could have as much as 70,000 if I am the cautious type). Suddenly, the decision to go to war with Austria has left the imaginary realm of perfect information and entered the real world where you go with the best information you have and consider the risk of being wrong.
The same approach could be applied to manpower, naval statistics, or any other ledger info (you could even theoretically adjust things like tech levels). The modifiers could be the same or completely different (maybe you have better naval info about countries who trade in the same node or border the same sea zone). There may also be very large modifiers for countries you have just discovered, reflecting the lack of knowledge related to distance or their provinces which are terra incognita to you.
This would open a whole new realm of events that could adjust your modifiers or directly affect your Espionage Efficiency. Spy offense and spy defense could also double as Espionage Efficiency modifiers. There could be advisors who provide increased Espionage Efficiency. There could be modifiers that increase or decrease the range of values (driving more or less uncertainty on point estimates). There could also be modifiers that go in one direction or the other (making a country appear more or less powerful than they really are). The options that may be put into the Espionage Idea Group (or other idea groups, national ideas and traditions and policies) could add tremendous gameplay color and value. There could be other aspects of “fuzzy” information employed that don’t rely on this particular mechanic (like the ability to see general stats or unmaintained forts). Tech increases could also drive Espionage abilities, similar to Forced March at Admin tech 15. The ability to see general stats may be achieved at Diplo tech 10 for instance.
As far as the AI is concerned, it could still make decisions based on perfect information. It doesn’t need another reason to make it less effective against a player. Or if it could be effectively integrated into AI decisions, the value of "defensive" espionage becomes more significant. This dynamic could add an interesting element to multiplayer games. By sharing estimates from various ledgers, you can “zero in” on the real value, similar to how intelligence sharing works in the real world. There could be an option to turn off “fuzzy” information in non-ironman games for the player who is learning how things work. The difficulty setting could even impact the base RNG, so that harder settings are more likely to result in poor decisions based on faulty intelligence.
I think this approach, or one like it, adds a completely new dimension to many game decisions (such who to ally or rival and when to go to war). Imagine how fortune can turn when a supposedly "weak" ally of your foe suddenly shows up with a doomstack! Or the multiplayer pre-war "conferences" where differing opinions and estimates of enemy strength drive heated discussions. The OPM that would give you a direct border with a rival becomes much more strategic a conquest. Every diplomat becomes more valuable. Every relationship slot finds a completely new strategic dimension. The game gains new flavor events that may impact not only your monarch point balance but, literally, alter your assessment of the game world and meaningfully affect your decision making.
Finally, just for fun, here is my newly designed Espionage Idea Group (I assume that covert actions currently unlocked by this idea group, except Infiltrate Administration, become available to all players). There are many, many other ideas that may be better and/or more balanced.
I’d be very interested in ideas from the forum, pro or con. I just had the idea and threw some numbers together to illustrate it. All of the numbers I used here are reasonable I think, but they can be dialed up or down to find the right balance between having meaningful information and a realistic level of uncertainty. Exactly how it all works could probably be improved. Also, not being a developer, I have no idea how hard it could be to code. I leave that to the experts.
Think of the process that the player goes through when deciding whether or not to go to war. You access the ledger to size up your intended target and their allies: army strength, naval strength, income, technology level, etc. You look at the map and assess the size and position of their armies and fleets. You evaluate the stats of their generals and admirals. You check for unmaintained forts you can try to put under siege before they garrison them. You check your declare war screen to see which of your allies, and which of theirs, will answer the call to war. All of this information is incredibly valuable to deciding whether to go to war and how you intend to fight one if you do. It’s all right at the fingertip of the player. And it’s all perfectly correct. This is one of the most unrealistic aspects of the game at the moment.
I propose one potential answer to this problem that could dramatically change how the game is played, but in the most subtle of ways, and at the same time make Espionage ideas much more valuable and potentially one of those “go to” idea groups.
Fundamentally, the information in the ledger should be made less “perfect.” Even today, with satellite imagery and modern telecommunications, it simply isn’t possible to know all of the information about another country that is currently found in the ledger. Instead, the ledger should reflect “estimated” troop and navy levels. There would be a standard range applied to ledger values (a multiplier of 1 + RNG(-0.2 to 0.2), for instance). This estimate could be modified to be more or less accurate depending on any number of factors (eg. size of country, shared border, active diplomat, ally, military access, rival, culture group, hostile relations, etc.). And the accuracy of this estimate could be further modified by 100% minus your “Espionage Efficiency.” The random seed should persist for a given period of time, changing periodically, perhaps by event, or monarch death, or new tech level. The ledger would show a single value, a "point estimate," based on the actual value, random seed, and modifiers.
Factors that are applied to the range reflect real effects of the situation and/or player actions. My list for example:
Large country (>5 provinces) = x1.1 A larger country is more difficult to cover with spies
Shared border = x0.8 Proximity increases access and chances of observation
Active diplomat = x0.9 A diplomat in the country doubles as an intelligence agent
Ally = 0.0x Open disclosure with allies removes uncertainty
Military access = x0.75 It’s more difficult to hide your military capabilities from other countries with access
Rival = x0.9 You have active intelligence gathering operations against your rivals
Different culture group = x1.3 It’s harder to infiltrate foreign cultures
Let’s say for the moment, that every country begins the game with an Espionage Efficiency of 25%, which increases at given Diplo tech levels.
For example, at the November 11, 1444 bookmark, Austria has 27,000 infantry troops and 10,000 cavalry troops. Suppose I am playing Bohemia, and I have begun to fabricate a claim on Austria, who is a rival. The math, based on these factors is:
[(1 + RNG(-0.2 to 0.2) * (Modifiers (Large 1.1 * Shared border 0.8 * Active diplomat 0.9 * Rival 0.9 * Different culture 1.3) * (100% - 25% Espionage Efficiency)]
As a result, the ledger may show me anything from 23,000 to 31,000 infantry troops and 9,000 to 11,000 cavalry (rounded to the nearest full strength army) for Austria.
Now suppose that I am ready to attack Austria and they have allied Hungary (with whom I am increasing relations), Alsace, Provence, and Trier (who is also my ally). Applying the math again, the ledger would reflect a point estimate value in the range of:
Hungary: 11,000 to 15,000 Infantry (real value 13,000) and 4,000 to 6,000 Cavalry (real value 5,000)
Alsace: 3,000 to 5,000 Infantry (real value 4,000) and 1,000 Cavalry (real value 1,000)
Provence: 6,000 to 10,000 Infantry (real value 8,000) and 2,000 Cavalry (real value 2,000)
Trier: because I am also allied to Trier I see their actual values of 5,000 Infantry and 1,000 Cavalry
Now instead of seeing that I will face exactly 57,000 Infantry and 19,000 Cavalry, I may see an opponent that is anywhere from 48,000 Infantry and 17,000 Cavalry strong at the low end to 66,000 Infantry and 21,000 Cavalry at the high end. And I won't know whether I am looking at a number that is high or low in the scale, so I may further adjust it in my thinking (given a number of 65,000 Infantry, for instance, I may assume they could have as much as 70,000 if I am the cautious type). Suddenly, the decision to go to war with Austria has left the imaginary realm of perfect information and entered the real world where you go with the best information you have and consider the risk of being wrong.
The same approach could be applied to manpower, naval statistics, or any other ledger info (you could even theoretically adjust things like tech levels). The modifiers could be the same or completely different (maybe you have better naval info about countries who trade in the same node or border the same sea zone). There may also be very large modifiers for countries you have just discovered, reflecting the lack of knowledge related to distance or their provinces which are terra incognita to you.
This would open a whole new realm of events that could adjust your modifiers or directly affect your Espionage Efficiency. Spy offense and spy defense could also double as Espionage Efficiency modifiers. There could be advisors who provide increased Espionage Efficiency. There could be modifiers that increase or decrease the range of values (driving more or less uncertainty on point estimates). There could also be modifiers that go in one direction or the other (making a country appear more or less powerful than they really are). The options that may be put into the Espionage Idea Group (or other idea groups, national ideas and traditions and policies) could add tremendous gameplay color and value. There could be other aspects of “fuzzy” information employed that don’t rely on this particular mechanic (like the ability to see general stats or unmaintained forts). Tech increases could also drive Espionage abilities, similar to Forced March at Admin tech 15. The ability to see general stats may be achieved at Diplo tech 10 for instance.
As far as the AI is concerned, it could still make decisions based on perfect information. It doesn’t need another reason to make it less effective against a player. Or if it could be effectively integrated into AI decisions, the value of "defensive" espionage becomes more significant. This dynamic could add an interesting element to multiplayer games. By sharing estimates from various ledgers, you can “zero in” on the real value, similar to how intelligence sharing works in the real world. There could be an option to turn off “fuzzy” information in non-ironman games for the player who is learning how things work. The difficulty setting could even impact the base RNG, so that harder settings are more likely to result in poor decisions based on faulty intelligence.
I think this approach, or one like it, adds a completely new dimension to many game decisions (such who to ally or rival and when to go to war). Imagine how fortune can turn when a supposedly "weak" ally of your foe suddenly shows up with a doomstack! Or the multiplayer pre-war "conferences" where differing opinions and estimates of enemy strength drive heated discussions. The OPM that would give you a direct border with a rival becomes much more strategic a conquest. Every diplomat becomes more valuable. Every relationship slot finds a completely new strategic dimension. The game gains new flavor events that may impact not only your monarch point balance but, literally, alter your assessment of the game world and meaningfully affect your decision making.
Finally, just for fun, here is my newly designed Espionage Idea Group (I assume that covert actions currently unlocked by this idea group, except Infiltrate Administration, become available to all players). There are many, many other ideas that may be better and/or more balanced.
- Recruited Merchants: All countries with capitals in trade node where Merchant is present receive bordering country force estimate modifier
- Duplicitous Diplomats: +20% impact from Diplomat Present force estimate modifier
- Masters of Disguise: -33% impact from Other Culture Group force estimate modifier
- Reconnaissance: Ability to see unmaintained forts enabled
- Propaganda: +10% defensive force estimate modifier
- Espionage: Ability to Infiltrate Administration
- On Idea Group completion: +25% Espionage Efficiency
I’d be very interested in ideas from the forum, pro or con. I just had the idea and threw some numbers together to illustrate it. All of the numbers I used here are reasonable I think, but they can be dialed up or down to find the right balance between having meaningful information and a realistic level of uncertainty. Exactly how it all works could probably be improved. Also, not being a developer, I have no idea how hard it could be to code. I leave that to the experts.
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