Production : Streamlined vs Flexible

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joe9594

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Something you might not be taking into account is the the rate of efficiency increase is not linear. It is an S shaped curve. So getting from 25 to 75 might well take less time than going from 75 to 100. Not all loss is equal so it is possible that the faster growth is better when you are swapping from something which has very high (>90) efficiency already and you intend to go all the way back up to that high level. Losing the amount between 75 and 50 might be much less hard to get back than the amount between 75 and 90. So there are definitely situations where the 25% growth could be better. Still the other one seems generally more useful.
 
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Shatterfury

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Something you might not be taking into account is the the rate of efficiency increase is not linear. It is an S shaped curve. So getting from 25 to 75 might well take less time than going from 75 to 100. Not all loss is equal so it is possible that the faster growth is better when you are swapping from something which has very high (>90) efficiency already and you intend to go all the way back up to that high level. Losing the amount between 75 and 50 might be much less hard to get back than the amount between 75 and 90. So there are definitely situations where the 25% growth could be better. Still the other one seems generally more useful.
Good call.

Without knowing the rates the S curve has we can`t make proper calculations. Pfff.
 

Hopolit

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Shatter, your idea is an interesting one. But I can't help but think that its based on that we all know how the war ended.
In 1938-39 when the russian and german were cooperating on tank designs, the russians remarked that the germans lacked an heavy tank and it was only after 1941 that germany started even contemplating building one. It was also first during the invasion of USSR the it became apparent that they needed long guns on there tanks with a caliber of 75mm or more, this was when Germany started build an insane amount of different models of panzer lll and lV. Germany did have a good industry and as long that it was not bombed it worked like a charm, but due to Hitler and his nuttyness they did not completely mobilize until late 43 early 44.

What I'm trying to say is that Germany in the early stages is a real powerhouse and we knowing have the war ended and why, it is a good internal check to an early german steamroller. Besides no one was really thinking in the terms of streamline the design or flexible production lines until it became apparent that it was needed. The US did some massive amount of experiments before, during and after the war. So did the USSR, the germans did try to make more standardized lines in the E-line and the MP-44.

Your idea is good, but I can't help but be afraid that moving the tech to 1937 might make the game a little unbalanced. With pz6(tiger) during the invasion of france or something.

So to sum up, moving the tech to 1937 is not really based in history and it might be a game breaker.
I will have to play the game to confirm this teori so I don't now how it might work out in game.
 
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panzerzombie

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Please - all of you - remember that Research is a global thing and in this case not limited to germany. Germany obviously neglected major improvements of their industry until ´43 ( other political things aside which detract here too much) , other nations did not ignore it ( in game terms AI-germany did not choose to take lets say the ´37 tech choice of streamlined/flexible and decided to postpone it to ´43 instead ) and modernized a lot earlier so they should get the possibility ( or their AI´s) much earlier.

The earliest one (meaning nation) to pursue a thing resembling streamlining or flexible production should be the benchmark when such a tech is available and who and how exactly should be the subject of discussion.
 

Shatterfury

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Shatter, your idea is an interesting one. But I can't help but think that its based on that we all know how the war ended.
In 1938-39 when the russian and german were cooperating on tank designs, the russians remarked that the germans lacked an heavy tank and it was only after 1941 that germany started even contemplating building one. It was also first during the invasion of USSR the it became apparent that they needed long guns on there tanks with a caliber of 75mm or more, this was when Germany started build an insane amount of different models of panzer lll and lV. Germany did have a good industry and as long that it was not bombed it worked like a charm, but due to Hitler and his nuttyness they did not completely mobilize until late 43 early 44.

What I'm trying to say is that Germany in the early stages is a real powerhouse and we knowing have the war ended and why, it is a good internal check to an early german steamroller. Besides no one was really thinking in the terms of streamline the design or flexible production lines until it became apparent that it was needed. The US did some massive amount of experiments before, during and after the war. So did the USSR, the germans did try to make more standardized lines in the E-line and the MP-44.

Your idea is good, but I can't help but be afraid that moving the tech to 1937 might make the game a little unbalanced. With pz6(tiger) during the invasion of france or something.

So to sum up, moving the tech to 1937 is not really based in history and it might be a game breaker.
I will have to play the game to confirm this teori so I don't now how it might work out in game.
Yeah but what you are talking about is covered under mobilisation of economy, I`m strictly talking about flexible and streamlined as presented in game.

I know they mobilised in 43 and reached adequate production in 44 but flexible nor streamlined help in getting more efficiency but only to reach the cap.

In your average game the climax of the war might be over by 1943.

Don`t worry, no Tigers in the invasion of France, to field the Tiger you need to research it and you need to be in 1941 to do that effectively so flexible and streamlined don`t affect it.

To be honest the way it is implemented in game is so bland and it comes quite late, they might as well pick one and stick with it as standard because both, as they are in game, kind of do the same thing.

I wanted to make it more of a choice that can be tailored for those who have resources and those two don`t.

I agree, let`s get the game first.


Please - all of you - remember that Research is a global thing and in this case not limited to germany. Germany obviously neglected major improvements of their industry until ´43 ( other political things aside which detract here too much) , other nations did not ignore it ( in game terms AI-germany did not choose to take lets say the ´37 tech choice of streamlined/flexible and decided to postpone it to ´43 instead ) and modernized a lot earlier so they should get the possibility ( or their AI´s) much earlier.

The earliest one (meaning nation) to pursue a thing resembling streamlining or flexible production should be the benchmark when such a tech is available and who and how exactly should be the subject of discussion.
I only thought about it in a way so that it`s useful before the huge clashes in 1940 - 1944, it`s a game after all - we don`t get to research Panzer IV by 1941 even if it was fielded two years earlier in the invasion of Poland.

UK, USSR and USA all mobilised almost all of their industry for war earlier than Germany who only did it partially until 1943 - 1944.

If you take a look at my data digging, USSR and USA concentrated heavily on one main medium tank - USSR`s T-34 outnumbers the second most produced unit in their arsenal like 4 to 1, the same with USA their M4 Sherman outnumber the M3 at around the same rate.

Germany on the other hand is all over the place with 5.000 Pz IIIs, 8.000 Pz. IVs, 6.000. Panthers and 11.000 stuG IIIs. No vehicle dominates.

I know I`m reinforcing stereotypes, I`m well aware USSR and USA did a lot of modifications both M4 and T-35 have like 12 - 15 variants.

But this is a game at the end of the day and for example I can`t build Panzer IV in pre-war period, only in 1941 after I research it and many more anomalies are present in game for the same of making the game more enjoyable and balanced.
 
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Please - all of you - remember that Research is a global thing and in this case not limited to germany. Germany obviously neglected major improvements of their industry until ´43 ( other political things aside which detract here too much) , other nations did not ignore it ( in game terms AI-germany did not choose to take lets say the ´37 tech choice of streamlined/flexible and decided to postpone it to ´43 instead ) and modernized a lot earlier so they should get the possibility ( or their AI´s) much earlier.

The earliest one (meaning nation) to pursue a thing resembling streamlining or flexible production should be the benchmark when such a tech is available and who and how exactly should be the subject of discussion.
Agree
 

Hopolit

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Yeah but what you are talking about is covered under mobilisation of economy, I`m strictly talking about flexible and streamlined as presented in game.

I know they mobilised in 43 and reached adequate production in 44 but flexible nor streamlined help in getting more efficiency but only to reach the cap.

In your average game the climax of the war might be over by 1943.

Don`t worry, no Tigers in the invasion of France, to field the Tiger you need to research it and you need to be in 1941 to do that effectively so flexible and streamlined don`t affect it.

To be honest the way it is implemented in game is so bland and it comes quite late, they might as well pick one and stick with it as standard because both, as they are in game, kind of do the same thing.

I wanted to make it more of a choice that can be tailored for those who have resources and those two don`t.

I agree, let`s get the game first.
I agree with what you are saying here, but my experience from HOI3 playing as France, I always see Tiger tanks in the invasion and by 44 the Germans have E-75 as the main tank while I have nothing to match it. This is my fear with putting a major production boost early as a possible game breaker. But that is HOI3 and that experience is coloring my opinion here.
 

Shatterfury

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I agree with what you are saying here, but my experience from HOI3 playing as France, I always see Tiger tanks in the invasion and by 44 the Germans have E-75 as the main tank while I have nothing to match it. This is my fear with putting a major production boost early as a possible game breaker. But that is HOI3 and that experience is coloring my opinion here.
I am more of a DH fan.

If you check the videos posted about HOI 4 you will not face that, it means that in HOI 3 the research is way too easy and the penalties for researching ahead of time are too small.

I agree with you, something like this MUST not happen but flexible and streamlined only affect the efficiency of production, not research.
 
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I only thought about it in a way so that it`s useful before the huge clashes in 1940 - 1944, it`s a game after all - we don`t get to research Panzer IV by 1941 even if it was fielded two years earlier in the invasion of Poland.

UK, USSR and USA all mobilised almost all of their industry for war earlier than Germany who only did it partially until 1943 - 1944.

If you take a look at my data digging, USSR and USA concentrated heavily on one main medium tank - USSR`s T-34 outnumbers the second most produced unit in their arsenal like 4 to 1, the same with USA their M4 Sherman outnumber the M3 at around the same rate.

Germany on the other hand is all over the place with 5.000 Pz IIIs, 8.000 Pz. IVs, 6.000. Panthers and 11.000 stuG IIIs. No vehicle dominates.

I know I`m reinforcing stereotypes, I`m well aware USSR and USA did a lot of modifications both M4 and T-35 have like 12 - 15 variants.

But this is a game at the end of the day and for example I can`t build Panzer IV in pre-war period, only in 1941 after I research it and many more anomalies are present in game for the same of making the game more enjoyable and balanced.

Right, so lets have a look at all the different things which influence the sum of production ( I said political things would detract here but lets do it anyway for an overview) comparing history to in-game. This includes a lot of assumptions mixed with real data ( can´t be helped... ).

Political:
War economy ( Germany did not adopt this until `43 ) Some Allied did it from the their starting points ( UK ´39 ? / Soviets ´41 ? / US - really don´t know, perhaps explained in this: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?lang=en&id=23588 ( didn´t have time to read it but skimmed it).....according to this the US didn´t do much in 39, did a bit more in 40 after the invasion of France and rising but still nothing justifying war economy, but after Pearl harbour ofc BAMM full war production...
But in-game Mobilization levels (apart from the desperate ones ) really mostly effect the availability-% of civilian factories ( reserving between 10% and 40% of all CFs for consumer goods with prod.malus of higher mob.laws) and building speed of CF/MF etc. so its difficult to directly calculate effects but ofc it does effect it.

Trade Laws:

US obviously had free trade for a longer time than any other country so lets assume they dropped it after Pearl Harbour, all other may have dropped their trade laws earlier ( possibly Sovietunion did still trade up to Barbarossa). Trade laws directly influence production between 0 and +15%

NF:
Afaik no specials like Total War speeches for Germany or similar things with UK, US or Sovietunion ( Purge is prewar), I may have overlooked something

Research:
up to ´43 general improvements of about +50% (= 3x10% until 39 and +10% each year after ) assuming concentrated industry and in ´43 you choose between +20% from 43 /44 / 45 or you choose flexible which is 0 % direct prod. increase.

So - in game terms and veeery roughly - the production of war materials (in bonus production per factory) were in:

´39 Germany +30% ( trade changed ) / UK + 30% (war economy, trade changed) / Soviets (war econ or not ?? I assumed yes, export focus)+ 40% / USA+45% ( free trade)
´41 Germany +40% / UK +40% / Soviets+40% ( war econ,trade changed ) / USA+55% ( still free trade )
´42 Germany +50% / UK +50% / Soviets+50% / USA+55% ( free trade changed )
´43 Germany +60% ( war economy now, flexible prod ?) UK +80% ( streamlined ) / Soviets+80% ( streamlined ) / USA+80% ( streamlined )
after `43 it gets worse for germany but only assuming they never adopt streamlining...

These numbers are pretty similar up to ´42, right ? Obviously the number of factories available differ enormously but then we were talking about what did each country get out of its existing economy per factory. The sum of it all should be another topic, but anyway the existing game system with streamlined production in ´43 CANNOT EXPLAIN OR SIMULATE the massive increase in productivity unless you factor in the number of new factories and how many of the civilian factories ( converted actively and/or freed by changed mobilization laws ) were converted and that is the real deciding factor behind it which nobody talked yet about.

and the question still remains......did ANYBODY adopt something like flexible production or did they all ( or germany never ?) choose streamlined ( in RL and when ?) ? And if so ( flexible ) which ones did ? So should it even be a mutually exclusive tech, or rather a complementary, or even a rather political decision than a technical ???
 
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@panzerzombie
Flexible giving 50% less reduction in efficiency and 50% less efficiency loss if missing strategic goods like tungsten but no efficiency bonus is my suggestion.
Streamlined giving 20% more efficiency is also my suggestion.


Flexible in game, in 1943 gives 50% less reduction in efficiency, streamlined allows you to recover efficiency 25%.
Given the fact efficiency rises in an S curve - for example it`s easier to rise from 50% to 75% but harder to rise from 75% to 100% - those both upgrades, as they are in game, make only one thing possible - makes switching easier, those two are essentially the same.

It depends what you consider flexible.
Germany had Panzer III - Panzer 38t included - as the most produced tank from 39 to 42.
Panzer IV was the most produced in 1943 but Panther was the most produced in 1944 even if even more Panzer IVs were produced in 1944 than in 1943.

So Germany went through 3 main medium battle tanks from 1939 to 1945 while both USSR and USA had T-34 and M4 Sherman as their main medium tank from start to end, no questions asked.

Does this qualify in your book as flexible ?

Since it`s a game, and the fact that a lot of things are abstracted or made so that it's more fun, I think it`s good enough as basis for something like that.

Let`s be honest, did really Germany build dispersed industry to such a level that it reduced bombing efficiency against the industry itself by 90% ???

I just saw that flexible and streamline are already in game and I suggested a way of making them unique, both do the same thing as they are now in game.
 
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bERt0r

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From how i understand it streamlined is more effective if you are expanding your production as the game progresses. However i dont think there is too much difference between the two - one drops less efficiency, one recovers it faster. It doesn't seem like that much of a meaningful choice to me.
 
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panzerzombie

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@panzerzombie

It depends what you consider flexible.
Germany had Panzer III - Panzer 38t included - as the most produced tank from 39 to 42.
Panzer IV was the most produced in 1943 but Panther was the most produced in 1944 even if even more Panzer IVs were produced in 1944 than in 1943.

So Germany went through 3 main medium battle tanks from 1939 to 1945 while both USSR and USA hand T-34 and M4 Sherman as their main medium tank from start to end, no questions asked.

Does this qualify in your book as flexible ?

------------------

Let`s be honest, did really Germany build dispersed industry to such a level that it reduced bombing efficiency against the industry itself by 90% ???

I just saw that flexible and streamline are already in game and I suggested a way of making them unique, both do the same thing as they are now in game.

Yes, thank you.

No, I´m honestly not sure what my book says about flexible :) :). Makes sense though - Germany flexible ( although the PzIV was the only tank in the world being produced during the whole war), USSR and USA streamlined ( but then they have been streamlined far earlier than ´43 as you also mentioned ). UK I would rather see as flexible also because they too had a crapload of different designs and "experiments", I could not imagine them as being streamlined.
 

seattle

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@panzerzombie and @Shatterfury

Adam Tooze has dis-proved the Speer myth that production increased hugely due to Speer's efforts alone, instead it increased due to the "efforts" made in the previous years, mainly due to the 4 year plan of Goering which started in 1936 but finished only in late 1941-early 1942, about 18 months delay in implementation which created a lot of capacities in production. Also "streamlined" benefits kicked in and Speer cut down on the wasteful products by some.

Now, to German production. It was always hasty improvisation rather than a well thought strategy like- USA which decided to pump out 50000 Shermans despite knowing they were somewhat outdated in terms of armor or USSR pumping out IL-2 Sturmoviks in tens of thousands despite horrendous losses in pilots so that it could put an end to the "Panzerwaffe".

In 1933, the Germans were already on the verge of re-armament and had the basics of tanks, combined arms etc in advanced testing time period, Hitler accelerated the process.
The result- the Germans built the PzII as a stop-gap measure till the IIIs and IVs could be researched, tested and produced (both were under R&D and achieved tests in 1936 and 1937 but full scale production started only by 1939). - these remained the 2 main chassis for tanks for Germany throughout the war.
The "theory" of using "tracked vehicles" and "tractors" as prime-movers (which benefited them a lot, despite the cost) vs the Western allied theory of TRUCKS also was in place.
The Bf109 was in full production from 1937 onward and was first tested in 1935, which meant it was already being considered pre-1933. (the main fighter of Germany)

Further, Aircraft procurement was a quagmire of politics and corruption, with the fastest aircraft in the world-HE100 not being procured by the Luftwaffe despite its speed records not being broken till 1944. The entire Luftwaffe top brass was corrupt/incompetent- Goering, Milch, Udet etc. Just see the way they played around with Ju-88, forcing Junkers to make the plane -"dive bomb capable" reducing its speed and carrying capacity. The only 2 competent technical people they had were- Waver and Richtofen (Wolfram von Richtofen was not only a flying ace but an engineering postgraduate with specialty in avionics, a person like him was best suited to command the "Technical Dept"), Walther Waver died and Richtofen was sidelined.

Now to the Navy, the Navy wasted precious Steel and other important commodities building "White Elephants" esp. the Z plan ships like - Bismarck and Tirpitz. Both did not achieve anything. The "STEEL" would have been enough to build 500 PzIVs by 1939-1940 additionally and several hundred trucks and Sdkfz's. Or could have been used to build some 100+ Ocean going subs, but there was no "proper direction". Irony here is - in my opinion Adm. Raeder was the best "Grand Strategist" in entire Germany.

Again in 1942-42, when Guderian was appointed Inspector-General, he wanted to build only PzIII and IV chassis and scrap all other projects, making hundreds of Stugs and PzIVs and using them in a mobile manner to inflict terrible casualties on the Russians, but "Tiger, Elephant, Panther" were all a waste of resources- all put together were produced at less than 10,000; instead some 20,000/25000 Stugs/PzIV maybe in a 2:3/3:2 ratio would have benefited the Germans immensely. (even with the FUEL COSTS, as those heavies were gas guzzlers and difficult to transport and liable to breakdowns).

Overall, a - PLAYER in HOI series never plays - "NAZI INTERNAL POLITICS TOTAL WAR" and this saves him a lot of energy and resources to crush the AI easily.

If, the Germans had not built so many useless white elephants and variants, they would have had much better production figures, certainly not equal to the USA but much higher than it happened.

Not much to add. There's one more thing I read in "Cambridge Illustrated History of Warfare". The fuel wasted in the rocketry research and production alone would have been enough to supply those extra tanks. They estimated thousands of additional airplanes being fueled without the rocketry.
 
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shri

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Not much to add. There's one more thing I read in "Cambridge Illustrated History of Warfare". The fuel wasted in the rocketry research and production alone would have been enough to supply those extra tanks. They estimated thousands of additional airplanes being fueled without the rocketry.

I agree, if the Nazis had not bothered with the "gore" as also the "Wizardery- Rocketry, V weapons, Rocket/Jet planes etc" and simply mass produced the - FW190 & Bf109 for the Jagdwaffe (the FW being the "bomber killer" and Bf109 being the Fighter killer) and the Stug/PzIV combo for the Panzerwaffe (with Stugs taking care of Tanks and PzIV the infantry), they would have inflicted a lot more casualties on both the USSR and Western Allies.
An additional 12000+ Tanks/Stugs and about 10000+ Fighters would have made a lot of difference. Mind you, the Stugs, PzIV as also the Bf109 and FW190 are all "relatively fuel efficient".