Probability of Lucky Nations

[wilcoxchar]

I've run a couple tests on which nations are weighted to be lucky in a game. I've started up 25 games as the Madlives, in 5 game sets, restarting EU3 between sets to see if that has any effect. Here are my findings:

ARA = 4 1 5 5 3
BUR = 5 5 5 5 5
CAS = 4 5 1 5 4
ENG = 5 5 5 5 5
FRA = 5 5 5 5 5
HAB = 4 0 0 1 4
KAZ = 1 0 0 0 0
LIT = 3 4 5 4 5
MAM = 2 2 3 2 1
POL = 0 0 1 0 0
MNG = 0 0 0 1 0
POR = 1 0 4 1 3
QAR = 2 3 0 2 1
TEU = 0 1 0 0 0
TIM = 0 1 2 1 1
TUR = 4 5 3 3 4
VEN = 0 0 1 0 0

Findings:
England, France, and Burgundy have been lucky every single run. Even that IMO shouldn't happen in 25 games. I'd like to see these nations have less of a weight to be lucky, especially Burgundy.

Another country I'd like to see less lucky is Lihtuania. Accompanied with the Russian minors having more weight to being lucky, this would go a lot farther to making AI form Russia more consistently, if at all.

The overall spread of countries being lucky seems good, with plenty of nations becoming lucky at least once in 25 games.

Further Testing:
I'd like to run a total of 100 games in a full test, so I can get better numbers and a more accurate sample. That should probably come later in the next couple of weeks.

 

[unmerged(47041)]

Great Info, thanks for posting. I love the luck factor, but yeah burgundy getting it every single time seems a little off, hopefully they'll do something about that in the upcoming patches, I don't think even the englands should be getting lucky in more than 75% of the games.

 

[unmerged(9599)]

Burgundy died in real life so why should it be lucky.

 

[I am.]

Burgundy died in real life so why should it be lucky.

That is really strange if you ask me... But maybe they would have been had their king not died in battle?

 

[unmerged(514)]

In my opinion the lucky nations concept, while interesting, is way too overdone.

I guess it is very interesting from a multiplayer perspective as it is currently, but from a singleplayer one, to add some flavor, lucky countries should only have more chances of getting good events and less chances of getting bad ones.

 

[unmerged(2958)]

Someone posted in another Thread about deleting the Lucky stats from I think the Defines.txt file. Does away with the whole pesky Lucky nations business.

 

[unmerged(514)]

Someone posted in another Thread about deleting the Lucky stats from I think the Defines.txt file. Does away with the whole pesky Lucky nations business.

That's one of the many changes done in Magna Mundi mod.

 

[unmerged(11600)]

Why would Lucky be a problem in SP but not MP? If anything, it would give SP games the feel of MP ones. Personally I have no issues with it, even though I'm playing Irish Munster going up against Lucky England.

-Pat

 

[Sarmatia1871]

Is the likelihood for certain TAGs to be lucky hardcoded, or is it dependant on an editable variable somewhere?

 

[Johan]

Depends on the techgroup and total richness of provinces.

 

[xantener]

Burgundy died in real life so why should it be lucky.

Burgundy was one of the upcoming powers in europe, competing to create a third nation between France and the HRE. They had such a misfortune when most of it was inherited by Austria, but before this Burgundy was one of the 'luckiest' countries in the world. As the modifier mostly influences placement chances and tech costs, but has no effect on wether your monarch dies sooner or later, it's quite reasonable to call Burgundy 'lucky'.

 

[Josephus I]

Where can you tell which countries are "lucky" in a particular game?

And what bonuses do lucky countries get?

 

[arstal]

Kinda wish the lucky provinces changed each time you loaded the game...
Give it a random feel.

Either that or make it monarch based- so a monarch can give "luck" even if he's 3/3/3...

 

[Airfixer]

I hate that Burgundy always is lucky. I Like it when the map differs every time I play the game

 

[Mats_SX]

Where can you tell which countries are "lucky" in a particular game?

And what bonuses do lucky countries get?

It says in the save game file. Search for "lucky". Also the bonuses are listed there. It's mostly better leaders, higher chance of missionary, merchant bonuses etc.

 

[unmerged(20124)]

Is it luck=yes? Presumably I could change it to 'no' if I wanted to turn it off.

I am playing France, and had lucky England, OE, BURGUNDY, Lithuania, Austria, Castille, Crimea and some mongol country. Hmmmm. Good thing I diplo- annexed Burgundy, huh? Lucky Castille was a pain, England less so. Looks like I am pretty representative of the probabilities in the OP.

 

[unmerged(485)]

Lucky countries are there to give the AI a boost/chance in SP. The player country is never lucky.

 

[lordy80011]

I truly enjoy the fact that there are lucky nations in the game. I find that at least the lucky nations give *some* competition to me in a SP game (which is all that I have time to engage in)... In my current Ottoman game, Muscovy, Teutonic Knights, Golden Horde, Crimea AND Austria are all lucky, which is for a very different and interesting game! Finally, I'm not confronted by a large purple Lithuanian blob when I scroll over eastern Europe.

 

[jdrou]

And what bonuses do lucky countries get?

See the 'luck' entry in the static_modifiers.txt file. In addition, many events have their MTTH modified for lucky nations.

 

[dharper]

It would be nice if we could control or influence which countries were lucky. I would love to make certain key countries lucky so that they would actually reach their historic heights - France, Castile, Muscovy and the Ottomans in 1453, for example, all have a long way to go and rarely seem to coalesce into the powers they were in history.