Predictions - Who ultimately wins World War Wednesday?

[Alexander Suvorov]

They've strayed from the historical, and I think Johan has a very strong chance to win because the French colonial possessions, combined with his already vast empire give him really tremendous resources.

Did Johan get the French fleet as part for British-Franco Union? That would be even better if you got their fleet. Adding a couple capital ships and a good number of destroyers to help police those new sea trade lanes to the new colonies would really help. would love to know what happened to the French fleet now that France is not on the map.

I think that Johan will bring the U.S. into the war.

Things look grim for Germany but, they have a few things going for them;
They have tons of factories and max army xp, so they will be able to produce better units very soon.
They have Spain in their faction and participating in their wars. Spain is not a huge military power, but it is something. It gives them a staging ground for an African offensive if they should choose.
Can't wait for the next stream.

 

[shri]

I think Jakob really needs the USSR on his side now that the British have fulfilled the dreams of Henry Vth.
If he does that, all bets are off and Germany will be swimming in factories and resources (traded from USSR) with the Best Army and Best Airforce and can build a decent Navy and attack the UK.
Also the USSR can attack Finland and gobble them up.

 

[mdw1985]

I think Jakob really needs the USSR on his side now that the British have fulfilled the dreams of Henry Vth.
If he does that, all bets are off and Germany will be swimming in factories and resources (traded from USSR) with the Best Army and Best Airforce and can build a decent Navy and attack the UK.
Also the USSR can attack Finland and gobble them up.

If Johan gets the USSR on his side, he'll probably win the war, if he can go for Sealion quickly. Even if the US join the war, Germany will be unbeatable after conquering the GB mainland...

 

[The Albatross]

I predict those Trotskyists in the Soviet Union will end up just steamrolling all of Europe.
Brush up on your Russian!
(I hope we get to see a crazier WWW once this round is done. I want to see something like Comintern vs Allies or something).

It might just get even more weird.
At the game 4 end, Johan now controls a combined FRANCE and UK + Commonwealth - interesting development.
Meanwhile Jakob is toying with an unholy alliance with USSR - GER controls EU and SOV controls Asia.

Indeed -- there may be even more crazier WWWs to come......

 

[Mind Elemental]

It almost looks like we're headed for the world of 1984, with Germany + USSR as Eurasia, Japan as Eastasia, and the Franco-British Union & Commonwealth as Oceania...

 

[mdw1985]

I'm really thrilled about next week! I really thought in the beginning of the www game last year, that Johan would invade Jakob with his divisions from the seaamd end the war very quick...now we have a U.S. entry in the war in reach and the question, if the USSR will ally with Jakob. I really hope, that both things will happen and we'll get a clash of the titans!!! And i am really excited, who will win in the sino-japanese war. Another thing is, if there will be happening something in South America.

I am very happy, that HOI4 is not that railroaded as HOI3 was. And i am confident, that each game will play different, since we got the option the set a historical AI or not...

The game is a gem!!!

 

[Salatmander]

Johan has the advantage on land so i would say his army is overall "stronger". I don t think he will lose if he doesn t make one or two big mistakes.
The problem he has is that he neither have the bigger fleet nor is his Luftwaffe stronger. And to get Brittish homeland you need to be superior in either one of those.

So in my eyes, yeah, he won t lose.
But can he win ?

 

[Federkiel]

I do not want to spoil the fun out of it but i think that unless Jacob gets the Unholy Alliance, he's already doomed.

The first reason is that Jacob does his best to entertain the viewers. Therefore his play suffers seriously from the lack of keen concentration. Attacking the Maginot is a blunder from the start. Due to a awfully lacking AI it was pretty close to being successful, though. Not recognizing the combat progress while talking, Jacob broke off his attacks short of breaking through and redeployed. He squandered months in the Benelux instead. Jacob forgets to assign NFs and research projects sometimes, losing time regarding these elementals assets. It's not necessarily his fault but a consequence of trying to be entertaining (along with boasting, starting jokes and stuff)

Johan just leans back and fully concentrates on the game, occasionally dropping a sentence or so. Therefore he is at a big, big advantage all time.


However, the main reason for an already decided game is the production/supply mechanics, which make HoI IV the most unrealistic game of the series: UK already has it's navy built and therefore does not need much oil. Basically no oil for the fleet. That's in a stark contrast to history, realism and game balance. In history, reality and previous HoI games, UK requires countless kilotons of oil to be gained, shipped, refined, shipped again and brought onto the ships while in harbour. WW2 was a logistic nightmare for the Allies and especially UK because they had to get this managed for keeping their (ancient) ships sailing. In HoI IV the ships are there, being assigned an unrealistic tech level (apart from pure firepower they were pretty bad because old), are being set to sail once and do that until 1948 without needing anything!!! What's that supposed to be??? UK gets the imbalanced and unrealistic boost in having a permanent naval screen at sea. This never was, is not and never will be for any nation...

Access to big oil composits in South East Asia or America were only the first of several prerequisites for the UK to keep their museum ship collection above the waves. Sinking them ingame becomes less likely than it happened in history (game stats too modern for what they really were) and UK has a free hand to do whatever it wants. It can spend all assets on tanks and planes while their fleet historically ate up just so much of what they could get a hand on.

The only reason to handle it that way is the aspect of so many old UK ships being just coal powered...

 

[zivf22]

I do not want to spoil the fun out of it but i think that unless Jacob gets the Unholy Alliance, he's already doomed.

The first reason is that Jacob does his best to entertain the viewers. Therefore his play suffers seriously from the lack of keen concentration. Attacking the Maginot is a blunder from the start. Due to a awfully lacking AI it was pretty close to being successful, though. Not recognizing the combat progress while talking, Jacob broke off his attacks short of breaking through and redeployed. He squandered months in the Benelux instead. Jacob forgets to assign NFs and research projects sometimes, losing time regarding these elementals assets. It's not necessarily his fault but a consequence of trying to be entertaining (along with boasting, starting jokes and stuff)

Johan just leans back and fully concentrates on the game, occasionally dropping a sentence or so. Therefore he is at a big, big advantage all time.


However, the main reason for an already decided game is the production/supply mechanics, which make HoI IV the most unrealistic game of the series: UK already has it's navy built and therefore does not need much oil. Basically no oil for the fleet. That's in a stark contrast to history, realism and game balance. In history, reality and previous HoI games, UK requires countless kilotons of oil to be gained, shipped, refined, shipped again and brought onto the ships while in harbour. WW2 was a logistic nightmare for the Allies and especially UK because they had to get this managed for keeping their (ancient) ships sailing. In HoI IV the ships are there, being assigned an unrealistic tech level (apart from pure firepower they were pretty bad because old), are being set to sail once and do that until 1948 without needing anything!!! What's that supposed to be??? UK gets the imbalanced and unrealistic boost in having a permanent naval screen at sea. This never was, is not and never will be for any nation...

Access to big oil composits in South East Asia or America were only the first of several prerequisites for the UK to keep their museum ship collection above the waves. Sinking them ingame becomes less likely than it happened in history (game stats too modern for what they really were) and UK has a free hand to do whatever it wants. It can spend all assets on tanks and planes while their fleet historically ate up just so much of what they could get a hand on.

The only reason to handle it that way is the aspect of so many old UK ships being just coal powered...

The entire Sub warfare in the atlantic will probably be as useless as in HoI 3 as well. Instead of having 99999 coal and oil in London they have it all stored in their navy

 

[CyberianK]

Johan has the advantage on land so i would say his army is overall "stronger"
...
So in my eyes, yeah, he won t lose.

He already has taken quite a punch his divisions and airforce are not in a very good state. Also US is joining very soon, Japan is bogged down and USSR has just cancelled No Agression pact (56:44 in video) and could attack any moment. So if he does not get USSR Ally and USA+USSR attack aided by UK landings everywhere he has lost almost immediately.

 

[Surimi]

If I were gambling, I'd say Johan is the safer bet at this point. Both players have the potential to bring a very powerful ally in though, so depending on the outcome of that it could go either way.

The other big wild card is that both players seem to have decided to go for nukes. It's not been revealed what effect nukes have, but I imagine whoever researches them first will gain a huge advantage. It seems nukes can be delivered by rockets as well as bombers, too, which presumably means air superiority is no guarantee of being able to defend against them..

 

[Alijs]

I think he gave attack orders over the Maginot line even though he said he didn't.
And of course he did not have a proper planned Fall Gelb/Rot anyway it was way too much chaos. And also his initial army composition was bad maybe partly due to that other guy who sabotaged his Panzer III plan so hes not to blame for all of that. Then we have Finland and Spain joining that is also far from optimal. Air and Naval was also bad it seems.

That USSR alliance thing might be his only chance left but then I am not sure what the conditions for that are and it probably has other disadvantages which might bite him. Or he could fail to get it anyway.

Rule Britannia!

Since his chances of winning are already slim, he is going the nuclear way out ( or tries to ) but I think that too will take too long. So yeah, like CyberianK was saying, Germany is pretty doomed UNLESS the USSR steps in but I personally doubt that'll happen.

 

[Evan05]

I originally had my money in Jakob, but after watching the latest World War Wensday (where Jakob invades France and the Franco-British Union forms) I have lost hope that Germany will win this, at least if they have any ambitions to conquer the Soviet Union.

 

[Zlovie]

It indeed seems a though situation for Jakob, his army might be stronger, but if he´s gonna use that army to conquer the USSR, he´s gonna get into trouble. His airforce seems weaker, and his navy definitely is. Sealion doesn´t seem to be an option, not without air superiority, land based naval bombers and/or a navy.

His only option seems to be to go for the unholy alliance, but that will disband the axis. He might even have to fight some of his former allies. The 'alliance with the USSR' national focus says: 'this will disband axis and create berlin-moscow faction'

 

[freyfahrer]

The Soviets did cancel the non aggresion pact of the Molotov Ribbentrop Threaty because Jacob allied the Baltic States. Historicly it was part of the deal to leave them to the bolcheviks. They will attack soon.

Jacob is playing so poor :-O. Masses of Type II Subs in the Atlantic in 1940? WW1 like Attack on France?

Without a Miracle he is doomed in 41 or maybe in 42.

 

[SturmerFIN]

As Jacob I would secure gibraltar as fast as possible.

1 army should move on to north africa and start working towards middle east oil. Elite army.

Scandinavia should join or fall.

Finally enlarging army to stop Soviet Union.
Remember 1 step back 2 forward.

 

[Federkiel]

And there are more game-breakers to the course of the game shown:

First, when Johan goes for an unjustified technological advantage (5th research slot) straight, he leaves out allying Poland. The Poles then fold to German demands on Danzig. Johan failed. If the game had been continued from that point onwards, Jacob could have done a one-front Blitz in the west, leaving Johan much less time for NFs, research and production before being stripped of allies, and facing Germany on his own...
However, as a consequence of the blunder, the game gets cancelled - return to a historical savegame... Starting this, Jacob even asks Johan when to actually start the war (fair play!).

Johan then goes for the next nonhistorical gamey move - unifying UK with France, forfeiting a historical Vichy. Game gets continued... Even if that silly idea of Churchill had been followed (which was as likely as Germany surrendering after them conquering Paris - France with it's military tradition and a well established historical rivalry to UK would never have cowered down to receive orders from London!), there would remain serious problems with different command systems, hierarchies and allied combat friction in general. There simply is no way to make a man of Bourgogne a Brit... not to speak of 60 millions of proud French people all across Metropolitan France.

In game terms this seems to be handeled differently of course. The French territories, planes, ships, tanks and soldiers just change coat of arms and within the blink of an eye - they instantly know how to fight much better! They now have all advantages (prematurely 5th research slot!) of the British, profitting from better doctrines (ORG, combat modifiers) at sea, in the air and on the ground.

Not only does UK gain all overseas territories for free (denying Vichy French colonies and also Indo-China for Japan), they also gain several dozens of divisions, thousands of planes, hundreds of convoys and probably about a hundred ships for free. We remember - they all have no consumptions in resources any more. They just live on love and national fighting spirit - British fighting spirit... The permanent, worldwide military presence - without any costs! - for the UK gets boosted through the roof.

World tension already is at 100%. AI USA (if it is being programmed already) just has to finish one or two NFs to join in. Their production certainly already is on full war footing... If they don't manipulate the savegame, Jacob will go down in flames within a fairly short time frame.


Bottom line: I don't like multiplayer with it's gamey, nonhistorical moves at all...

 

[ILoveLamp]

Looking at the end session stats for casualties:
Germany - 549K
UK - 279K
Japan - 170K

Not sure if Jacobs losses in manpower are significant enough to be a deciding factor. Looks like production is a bigger issue and the manpower loss may be moot if the SU decides to join him.

I wonder, if the SU doesn't join the axis, would it be possible for the German player to still bait the SU into declaring war on the allies via some NF or diplomacy?

 

[The Albatross]

Looking at the end session stats for casualties:
Germany - 549K
UK - 279K
Japan - 170K

Not sure if Jacobs losses in manpower are significant enough to be a deciding factor. Looks like production is a bigger issue and the manpower loss may be moot if the SU decides to join him.

I wonder, if the SU doesn't join the axis, would it be possible for the German player to still bait the SU into declaring war on the allies via some NF or diplomacy?

Perhaps Jacob lost so many because his OPS Plan included driving substantial forces through the Maginot Line.
They are significantly higher that in reality;

"At the end of the campaign, the Germans suffered 156,000 casualties (27,074 killed) while the Allies lost 2,292,000 casualties or capture. The breakdowns were as follows:

• France: 90,000 killed, 200,000 wounded, and 1,800,000 captured.
• Britain: 68,111 casualties
• Belgium: 23,350 casualties
• The Netherlands: 9,779 casualties
• Poland: 6,092 casualties

The campaign showed the world that warfare was no longer limited to fortresses and trenches. French troops stood guarding the Maginot Line achieved little while German troops bypassed them with speed. At the time of the surrender, some Maginot Line elements were still at decent strength, but surrendered all the same. In little over a month, the German troops had achieved what Germany could not in four years in WW1. Stunningly, while Germany lost 2 million men while unsuccessfully trying to take France in the previous war, this modern German army achieved it with a fraction of the lives lost."

 

[shri]

Looking at the game so far, the best thing for the Germans to do is to ally with USSR, this will disband the Axis but Italy, Spain and Japan are already at war with the UK and so it wouldn't matter, also the Balkan nations are weak and the Germans can run them over and install puppets if needed.

Once, USSR and Germany is allied- no need to pump out more land units, maybe some tanks and SS, but nothing more.

Concentrate on Air-Force, Subs and BBs and DDs and choke the UK's convoys near the coast of France and Spain. Also conquer Gibralter and send an invading Force into North Africa (with Tanks and SS units) to gobble British Algeria, Tunisia and Libya and finally Egypt.

Then, by 1942 fight the "Battle of Britain" in Air and Sea over the English Channel and Southern England using the upgraded long range Bf109's, some Stuka versions of Torpedo Bombers and some Ju version of Strategic bombers supported by dozens of Subs and 2 strong Battle Fleets with BB+DD/CL supported by a huge Luftwaffe.

Anything other than this is not doable and Barbarossa looks impossible.