I have done some more probability tests after modifications...
I have raised the dug-in factor to 5% per level, raised the attack penalty into all terrain by 10% (15% for woods) and increased the penalties for armor in difficult terrain by another 10%. Here are my results...
Example 1
A: 2xInfantry-Divisions (2xInf), 1918, no leader and no experience
Defends in forest against...
B: 1xInfantry (3xInf), 1939, Leader skill 3, offensive trait, 20% experience
A: 50% dug-in bonus
B: -30% forest penalty, 15% leadership bonus, 10% offensive bonus and 20% experience bonus.
A: Will fire 12 shots a round
B: Will fire 13 shots a round
Conclusions: Side A will win since they have 120 total morale while the attacker has 90 moral, though it will be a long slow defense. This seem to work much better than before.
Example 2
A: 1xInfantry Divisions (3xInf), 1939, no leader, no experience
Defends in a forest against...
B: 1xArmored-Divisiosn (3xArm, 1xAC) 1939, Leader skill 3, Ofensive and panzer trait, experience 20%
A: 50% dug-in bonus
B: -65% forest penalty, 15% leadership bonus, 10% offensive bonus and 20% experience bonus, 30% combined arms bonus.
A: Will fire 11 shots per hour
B: Will fire 18 shots per hour
Conclusiosn: The infantry has lower ORG and shoot fewer shots per hour and so will be routed and defeated. The armor will take approximately 2/3 of its ORG in loss.
Example 3
A: 1xInfantry Divisions (3xInf), 1939, no leader, no experience
Defends in a forest against...
B: 1xArmored-Divisiosn (3xArm, 1xAC) 1939, Panzer Leader, no experience
A: 50% dug-in bonus
B: -65% forest penalty, 30% combined arms bonus
A: Will fire 11 shots per hour
B: Will fire 11 shots per hour
Conclusiosn: The infantry has lower ORG but now will fire same number of shots. The armor will still win, but will be almost completely drained of ORG.
Armor are still too efficient in my opinion, any suggestions?!?