Possible what if for soviet purges?

[unmerged(11202)]

One things I am wondering about is if there are any possible followup scenarios if a player should choose to decide not to go with the purges in the USSR. The only thing that happens now is the incurrance of a stiff dissent hit. But I am interested to see some changes in government as well regarding ministers and domestic policy. I assume that there would have been a good possibility of Stalin being removed from office if he had not removed his opponents.
Some research on the web got me with an interesting faction among the opposition. They were called the rightists and apparently wished for a moderate approach towards collectivisation. The three names that I came accross for possible government positions were Nikolay Bukharin, Mikhail Tomsky and Alexey Rykov. The event I have in mind would trigger when option B in the purges is choosen. Stalin, Beria, Molotov and Yezhov would be removed as ministers and others installed instead. Domestic policy shifts somewhat to less authoritarian, politically somewhat to the right, a more open society, less central plannning and more interventionalism.
The questions I have is whether those mentioned above would make something of an alternative or what would have been possible when no purges had taken place?

 

[Miltiades]

This sounds like a great idea but I know nothing of the subject. I would just guess to say to make the Soviet Union Leninist insted of Stalinist and having Trostky come back to the USSR.

 

[Passivocalia]

I agree with Miltiades-- I love the idea but know nearly nothing about it.

My only suggestion is to make the Purges and the Coup separate events... if you choose to avoid the purges, make the coup that you describe potentially come up (but not guaranteed to come up). But, yeah, put it together. I've messed around with events for alternative outcomes in the Spanish Civil War, and I'd love to have the same done to the purges.

Though the A.I. does generally choose to do the purges, so I likely wouldn't see it often..

 

[Miltiades]

I agree with Miltiades-- I love the idea but know nearly nothing about it.

My only suggestion is to make the Purges and the Coup separate events... if you choose to avoid the purges, make the coup that you describe potentially come up (but not guaranteed to come up). But, yeah, put it together. I've messed around with events for alternative outcomes in the Spanish Civil War, and I'd love to have the same done to the purges.

Though the A.I. does generally choose to do the purges, so I likely wouldn't see it often..

Your idea sounds good, making it a seperate event and all.

 

[unmerged(47177)]

There should be an event tree.
Stalin committed the Purges in order to curtail a coup led by some generals (and of course killed many innocent officers in the process).
There should be a possibilit yof a coup with Tukhachevsky being made a Paternal Autocrat Old General as a leader.
There should be another variant where Ezhov becomes a Nazi leader.

 

[unmerged(11202)]

Having taken some of the suggestions into account here is my first attempt at a possible alternative for the USSR.

#########################################################################################
#	USSR events by Alkar								#
#											#
#											#
#########################################################################################

event = {
	id = 40350
	random = no
	country = SOV
	
	trigger = { 
			dissent = 20
			event = 2609 #The Great Purge
 		}

	name = "Stalin gets couped"
	desc = "A group of communist leaders knonw as the 'rightists' consisting of Nikolay Bukharin, Mikhail Tomsky and Alexey Rykov had aligned themselves with Stalin against Trotsky during the 1920s. However during the 1930s they came to oppose Stalin's economic policies and were subsequently purged. With Stalin removed in a coup a more moderate approach might have been followed."
	style = 0
	picture = "coup"

	date = { day = 1 month = january year = 1936 }
	offset = 7
	deathdate = { day 30 month = december year = 1947 }

	action_a = {
		name = "Shoot him"
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4002 } #Stalin
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4059 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4073 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4076 } #Molotov
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4072 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4034 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4075 } #Beria
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4041 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4031 } #Yezhov
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4032 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4039 }
		command = { type = sleepminister which = 4045 }
		command = { type = headofstate which = 400077 } #Bucharin
		command = { type = headofgovernment which = 400078 } #Bucharin
		command = { type = foreignminister which = 4033 } #Vyshinsky
		command = { type = armamentminister which = 400081 } #Tomsky
		command = { type = ministerofsecurity which = 400082 } #Rykov
		command = { type = ministerofintelligence which = 4006 } #Berzin
		command = { type = chiefofair which = 4066 } #Smushkevich
		command = { type = domestic which = democratic value = 2 }
		command = { type = domestic which = political_left value = -2 }
		command = { type = domestic which = free_market value = 2 }
		command = { type = domestic which = interventionism value = 2 }
		command = { type = sleepevent which = 2050 } #The Molotov Ribbentrop Pact
		command = { type = dissent value = -20 }
		}
}

And here are the extra lines I added to the ministers_sov.csv file:

[B]400077;Head of State;N. Bukharin;36;LE;Die-hard Reformer;Very Low;Bucharin;x
400078;Head of Government;N. Bukharin;36;LE;Ambitious Union Boss;Very Low;Bucharin;x
400079;Minister of Security;M. Tomsky;36;LE;Man of the People;Very Low;;x
400080;Head of Government;M. Tomsky;36;LE;Ambitious Union Boss;Very Low;;x
400081;Minister of Armament;M. Tomsky;36;LE;Resource Industrialist;Very Low;;x
400082;Minister of Security;A. I. Rykov;36;LE;Silent Lawyer;Very Low;Rykov;x
400083;Minister of Armament;A. I. Rykov;36;LE;Laissez Faires Capitalist;Very Low;Rykov;x[/B]

What I am trying to achieve here is some possibility of having this event happen when the purges event has taken place. I wanted to have this event trigger when dissent is high, what should have resulted if option B is choosen for the purges. I am not sure how I can influence the chance of the coup event firing at all, but I hope it is plausible. From what I saw from testing the event the USSR will turn into a Leninst state when firing with the default startup DP settings in 1936.
As an additional item I added having the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact event put to sleep. I do not think that pact would have been signed if Stalin and Molotov had been axed beforehand.
However my knowledge on the entire subject of alternative Soviet governments is scant and would like to explore some other possibilities. The installation of a military leadership sounds like a good idea and would make perhaps a good alternative option. Regarding a Trotskist takeover, there role was already finished regarding Soviet policy making AFAIK and the Trotskist were already completely removed well before 1936.
I am not sure how to install a fascist/nazi government, but I suppose the cabinet that the Soviets get when accepting the "Bitter Peace" would be a possibility.

 

[Passivocalia]

Perhaps choosing to do the Purges would sleep this event for good?

It looks good. The real question about Molotov-Ribbentrop, I guess, would be whether a more Leninist-based Soviet Union would have negotiated with Nazi Germany... and, if so, if they would have divided the world and stake claims in Bessarabia, the Baltic States, and Finland.

I do like the idea of a very real coup threat... it kind of gives more justification to the purges.

 

[leoric]

Having taken some of the suggestions into account here is my first attempt at a possible alternative for the USSR.

What I am trying to achieve here is some possibility of having this event happen when the purges event has taken place. I wanted to have this event trigger when dissent is high, what should have resulted if option B is choosen for the purges. I am not sure how I can influence the chance of the coup event firing at all, but I hope it is plausible.

To make it appear randomly, you should put 'random = x' inside trigger {}. If you want the I to take a random choice, put 'ai_chance = x' inside action_a {} and action_b {}.

About the M-R Pact: it was signed not just because Stalin and Molotov wanted it, but because this way they were able to reap foreign affair benefits for SOV. I don't think that at that time SOV could gain anything by siding with Allies - remember about british plans to send troops to fight against SOV in the Winter War and to bomb the Baku's oil refining facilities in June, 1941 - just to prevent SOV concluding the deal with GER (I can give you a link, but this book is in russian and not in Inet). So, I think it's better to decrease the chance of signing this pact after coup, not cancel it completely (you'll need a new event for it).

About Trotsky - agreed. In 1938, he is a dead man (er, I mean, politically ).


By the way, I'm currently working on replacing GDE changes for SOV with Org changes. The idea is to set SOV GDE back to 0.8, fire event '-20% Org' on 01/01/1936 and replace all remaining GDE chain and 'Great Patriotic War' with Org regain.
And I suppose the next thing: in 1930-1940, not only army, but the whole society was subject to purges - the reason is to consolidate the society in the face of internal enemy - so called 'enemies of people' and 'vrediteli'.
What if: selecting 'no need for brutality' affects not only army, but the whole politics: for consolidation of society, use not internal enemy, but external enemy! That means that you need a strong army of professionals, not army of ideologically regime-obedient unskilled men. So - restore Org now and sleep the Org chain (former GDE chain) and 'Great Patriotic War' events.

This will result in unfavorable early war - until this event (like now with the GDE hit), and due to dissent hit will prevent player from going to war immediately after this event - it'll take some time to prepare for war, if you want to. Moreover, it can lead to new 'alt history' path - Munich treaty isn't that far, and we can create a new variant: SOV decides to 'help' CHE despite they don't require it! But POL refuses to pass soviet troops to CHE - well, declare POL 'the assistants of nazi and imperialists' - and DoW them! Destroy POL -> 'Liberate' CHE -> destroy GER -> destroy Allies (if you can) -> world domination.

The point is: what if we join our efforts and create a mini-mod?