Yes that's a fair point, and it wouldn't be easy to model such complexity. I certainly don't know exactly how it could be achieved. At the moment, though, it is pretty extreme towards the 'all or nothing' end of the scale, and I do believe that bringing in a little more granularity would be a net positive.Level of abstraction is a very important design choice. Once you pick how much you want abstracted in the game, you want interacting mechanics to operate at similar levels of abstraction so that the outcomes make sense (especially in a causal sense, but ideally also fitting in with a historical theme in history-based games). You don't want crazy micro interactions in one facet and then close to no control in another facet, unless the latter doesn't influence the game much.
Could EU 4 benefit from being more granular? Possibly, but I caution against it since the game's time period (1444-1821) had some pretty massive differences in how armies operated (both in direct combat and logistically), how common people think, and in a few cases the way countries were run. HOI 4's extra granularity makes sense; its unit of time is an hour rather than a day, and the time period in question is ~12 years. The result is that HOI 4's total time units/game is shorter, despite those time units being hours rather than days! Managing stuff that happens on the time scale of days-months makes a lot more sense than doing it in EU 4 as a result.
I would say the core of EU4 is about using your resources efficiently. The question is whether the player is making meaningful choices. In many areas that is successfully achieved by distilling several disparate concepts into the mana system, leaving it up to you how best to spend that. The problem for me is that the rather binary approach to things like culture and religion mean that you aren't making interesting choices when it comes to these hugely important elements of governance.
Take an example from my recent Ethiopia run. I naturally chose religious ideas, which paired nicely with the 1.5% Coptic missionary strength and my national +1 missionary. Deus Vult is also extremely powerful. I could have gone humanist, but that would have been a comparatively terrible choice, so it didn't feel like a real decision based on pros and cons. Once I had nailed my colours to that mast, all I did was click 'send missionary' over and over again upon conquering new land. Often I hired an inquisitor, and occasionally I used the enforce religious unity edict. What should be one of, if not the major driving force in my society during this period, reduced to mindlessly clicking on a list every few minutes.
I know that sounds a bit negative, and I want to stress that I am absolutely not shitting on the game. I love it. But I maintain the belief that introducing at least some granularity in representing populations would be a good thing that allows for more meaningful interaction and decision making.
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