Pops should react to your foreign policy

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Call Me Vandal

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Concerning "strategic areas" In Your understanding it could be indeed tricky, but I think of something far more simple: just couple of objectively strategic areas of the world - Suez, Bosphorus, Malacca, chinese ports... I think that what Goldfinch mentions, that we already have such mechanics - gfoups of interests and their desires - allows us to be quite hopeful that such thing could br implemented into international politics too. Lets see!
I agree that straits and treaty ports, et cetera especially should be considered important, since they do have inherent strategic-ness. But if we're going to allow our pops to influence our foreign policy, then they need to be able to see things such as the Alsace-Lorraine scenario, lest they forbid us to conquer land outside of a few straits and our cores.

(edits in italics, to whom it may concern)
 
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GrafKeks

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After being insulted by Bismarck, Napoleon III hardly had a choice of how to react - overwhelming demand of society and parliament forced him to go to war.

British support for greek war of independence was largely a result of widespread sympathies for greek rebels in british society.

XIX century was an era when even small diplomatic failure made people take to the streets.

I suggest that in Vic3 your population should very strongly express their views on how well are you guiding their country to take its rightful place among other world powers.

If they feel insulted, they will be greatly upset if you just let the whole thing go, without proper punishment. If they consider bosphorus vital for your countries interest, they will expect you to prevent Russia from taking it. Obviously the more democratic your country is, the more you have to care for their views.

Your population should support a foreign policy that makes sense - this could be defined by a set of rules:

- cultural proximity: Austrian and Prussian pops won't let other powers touch their German brothers
- religion: Russian pops will greatly support wars in defence of orthodox nations
- strategic interests: pops of every country should sometimes support policies preventing other powers from taking control of very strategic areas, like bosphorus, Suez Canal, Malacca strait, etc.
- ideological support: revolutionary countries should be very strongly inclined to support fellow revolutionaries
- atrocities: generally pops of every great power should support punitive measures against countries committing atrocities against own peoples
- opportunities: population should expect you to take advantage of obvious opportunities: Japanese population should be expecting you to try to seize some far east russian lands during its civil war

To sum up, there should be direct connection between your foreign policies and your pops. They should get extremely angry if you pay with their sons' blood for some land they consider completely irrelevant. They should be happy and supportive if you achieve success in the field they consider important, boosting their national pride.

Game (via your pops) should support consistent foreign policy that makes sense; no to complete randomness. It should make you feel that every step in international politics has way deeper meaning than painting some more map and getting a bit more population.
It should be percieved cultural approximity, and it should obviously depend on pop ideologies.
Same goes for religion, pop ideology/issues should be the leading cause.

If a system like this is introduced into the game it should primarily be guided by the pops issues and their ideology and also on the clout they have.
 
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demanvanwezel

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a few other examples where public opinion pushed for wars or allowed wars to happen (or not)

- famous example of the spanish-american war where the so called "yellow papers" pushed the public into war ("Remember the Maine! To hell with Spain!" was originally an article title)
- during the american civil war the british and french governments were originally sympathetic to the confederacy but they feared the backslash that would follow if they supported them because of slavery being so disliked by the public
- prior to the russo-turkish war there was a bulgarian uprising which was brutally put down by the turks, this enraged the british and french publics and as of such they couldn't intervene in the war unlike the crimean war (the british did end up sending a battleship when it looked like the russians might take constantinople but that was merely to force a ceasefire)
- during the congress of berlin (1878) the italians were given vague promises about lybia (as compensation for france gaining tunesia which the italians also claimed), over 30 years later the italian press took that and ran with it pushing the government into the 1911 italian-turkish war
 
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Vernichtere

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The problem is that which places are of strategic importance is something which an AI could hardly ever tell. In Victoria, I as the German or French player know that whoever controls Alsace-Lorraine controls the border between Germany and France, since it's the narrowest (and thus most easily defensible) potential border between the two. One could argue that these strategic concerns were more important in the Germans' historical decision to annex the region after the Franco-Prussian war than even the ethnic makeup of the region, or the in-game concept of "cores."

However, how are the pops supposed to know that? Sure, one could hard-code the Germans and French to each desire the region, but that only works for that one specific scenario. What about all the other potential strategically useful states and provinces that only become strategically useful as a result of gameplay, not some inherent strategic-ness?

What I would most definitely not want out of the system in question is to actively acquire strategically important areas, only for my pops to not want them because they, for no apparent reason, think that some other area on the other side of the world is more important. Sure, people in reality make strange decisions -- Bismarck didn't want to pursue a policy of colonialism because he knew not to antagonize the colonial powers, but Germany embarked on such a policy anyway -- but they make strange decisions not because they're stupid, but because they have skewed priorities, or an inability to foretell the consequences of their actions. But such an AI would probably be stupid, unless it's given extensive work; which is possible, mind you, but is not an undertaking to be underestimated.

The Strategic Interests concern is only one such reservation a person could have. I can think of many other scenarios where I would be raging at a poor implementation. Are you starting to see my concerns?

So, yes, I would love to see a fun, dynamic system where pops demand you take certain actions abroad, but it is, indeed, really that complicated. And if I have to choose between a poorly-implemented demand system, and no demand system at all, I'd take the latter in a heartbeat.

This can be simulated through events and the medium-term rivalries that arise from them. A great power snatches the colony away from you: the nationalists react more aggressively and demand some kind of action.

Of course, it shouldn't be the case that all pops react in the same way. It is also better to steer through the interest groups.
 
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shadowofneptune

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I feel a way to make this work could be through clear communication to the player.

We know that the crisis system has been thrown out and replaced with something called 'diplomatic plays,' which are similar in interface to a peace deal but occur before any fighting. You lay down what you want, the opposing side gives a counteroffer, and great powers might get involved on either side. You can back out, giving the other side what it wants, or escalate further, possibly causing a war.

A window could be added to the diplomatic play screen showing how your current offer pleases or angers different interest groups, and perhaps more importantly how they'd react if you conceded to the other side.
 
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Muezzinzade

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I feel a way to make this work could be through clear communication to the player.

We know that the crisis system has been thrown out and replaced with something called 'diplomatic plays,' which are similar in interface to a peace deal but occur before any fighting. You lay down what you want, the opposing side gives a counteroffer, and great powers might get involved on either side. You can back out, giving the other side what it wants, or escalate further, possibly causing a war.

A window could be added to the diplomatic play screen showing how your current offer pleases or angers different interest groups, and perhaps more importantly how they'd react if you conceded to the other side.
Good idea with the window in negotiation table (I assume we are talking about diplomatic plays).
Considering earlier comments about risks of POPs desiring stupid, irritating things - I imagine player would have some influence of what POPs desire - as devs already said, it's up to us to empower or weaken interests groups!
 
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jurrz12

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I also think it would be cool (and relatively easy to model) if different interest groups supported different foreign policy actions. A nationalistic interest group should support going to war to defend cultural brethren or the national honor. Wealthy capitalists, on the other hand, should be more concerned with efforts to expand your national market. If a lot of workers’ jobs depend on a steady supply of rubber, they should expect the government to ensure that supply. So on and so forth.
 
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The Goldfinch

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I also think it would be cool (and relatively easy to model) if different interest groups supported different foreign policy actions. A nationalistic interest group should support going to war to defend cultural brethren or the national honor. Wealthy capitalists, on the other hand, should be more concerned with efforts to expand your national market. If a lot of workers’ jobs depend on a steady supply of rubber, they should expect the government to ensure that supply. So on and so forth.

Exactly, if interest groups have own demands on internal politics, same should apply to international stage
 
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Leoreth

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Another interesting thing mentioned in Your comment is burning out infamy. I wonder whether it will work like this in vic3, but I can certainly imagine an interesting problem - player's position on international stage is damaged by some aggresive movements, and yet they have to keep pushing for more because of internal pressure. I think that's what happened to Japan before ww2.
Yeah, something like that would be great. Although here I would be a little bit more careful from a game design perspective: it can easily become frustrating if the threat/infamy/whatever mechanic pushes against you for trying to be aggressive while the internal politics mechanic pushes against you for trying to be peaceful. I don't mind the scenario of being caught between a rock and a hard place in a tough moment, but this sounds like it could easily be a downward spiral in either direction that you cannot escape from.

But your mentioning of infamy (which we know isn't a thing in Vic3) brings to mind how penalties for military aggression and expansionism are modeled in the game. In all other Paradox games (and presumably Vic3?) this is something that accrues on the nation level. If I expand as Prussia in EU4 it is France who dislikes me for it.

I wonder if that makes sense for a population modeling game like Victoria though. Shouldn't it be the French population who dislikes you, which then becomes a political problem for the French government unless they go to confront Prussia? This leads us back to a much more realistic and immersive situation than before, and exactly mirrors what happened with the Franco-Prussian war.

As a further benefit, the <insert synonym for infamy> mechanics would then also apply to the player without "forcing" any actions on them. If a nearby power breaks international norms, your population expects you to act against them.

This isn't exactly the same as what Paradox is trying to model as "Threat", which is a more realpolitik and utilitarian way of looking at expansionist powers, but could be a good tool to model revanchism and the sense of national pride in the population (or at least, certain interest groups in the population).
As excited as I would be for such a system, it could result in meme situations as easily as any of paradox's current political systems.

I'm assuming that everyone here is familiar with "We Love the King Day" from Civ, yeah? Their desires were completely arbitrary, since they had to be randomly generated. I'm afraid that your pops' desires in terms of foreign policy will be equally arbitrary.

While I could envision the historical American public being excited about annexing the whole of North America (Manifest Destiny and all that), I can't imagine the historical British public being quite so excited about annexing the whole of Europe. How would a pops system model such a difference? And in such specific circumstances?

Not to mention, how would the game decide what your pops deem to be of "strategic interest?" Will the Luxembourgian public expect its government to obtain the Suez?

In order for such a system to not be a royal pain, it would have to be extensively programmed and tested in order to prevent absurd demands from being made -- perhaps even railroaded in some cases, as much as the idea normally puts me off.
In my opinion, the population/IG preferences should be for anything but strategic interests. You're right that the public usually doesn't think strategically in their foreign policy preferences, that's what the government does. And their thinking is alrady reflected in the player: as a player we are inclined to want to make strategically optimal choices (to the best of our ability).

Pop/IG desires should be the spanner in the works that makes it hard to make those strategically optimal choices. I don't think such desires are that hard to derive in a way that is historically intuitive, for example:
- religious and conservative IGs should support wars against powers with minorities of their religion, especially if their rights are limited (French and Russian wars against the Ottoman Empire)
- capitalist/industrial IGs should support wars that expand access to resources, e.g. colonial wars
- capitalist/industrial IGs should oppose wars / support cooperation with nations that buy their products, e.g. the US with the UK
- religious IGs should support wars against decentralised nations that can be proselytized
- people should favour cooperation with nations that share their culture/heritage, like how the German immigrants in the US opposed war with Germany
- people in general, but maybe particularly low education pops, should support revanchism and nationalism, i.e. recovering lost territory and bringing territory of the same culture under your control
- prestige should factor into this in general (i.e. the prestige outcome of your actions should affect opinion accordingly)

This doesn't have to be too punishing, it's not like the entire country riots in the streets because you aren't protecting Ottoman Christians (although maybe it's a different question when prestige enters into the equation). But it would cost you some opinion with an IG that is maybe the crucial support for the law you want to pass.

Also, I think this perspective could also offer opportunities to the player, not just limitations. We have no idea how casus belli work in this game, but I am hoping for something more substantial than "fabricate claim". It seems like a golden opportunity to root casus belli in the IGs in your government instead. Like, the religious IG wants you to go to war with the Ottomans as protector of the Christian faith? Great, invite them into your government and suddenly you get that useful "Protect our brothers of faith" CB against the Ottomans. Of course that may spell trouble if you actually want a liberal government to pass progressive reforms. Is the CB worth stalling your reforms? It would be such a good way to further intertwine domestic and foreign politics.

Apart from Twitter, there is something called newspapers, I think was quite common source of info in Victorian era :D
Those 1820s kids and their newspapers!
Literacy 1836 start date:

- Prussia 63,1 %
- France 58,3 %

The society, the common people, almost never want war, especially not over some nuisances between their big bosses.
As others have pointed out, that is not actually the case in the 19th century. Famously even for WW1 people initially were excited to go to war, and public opinion pushed the involved governments to seek confrontation, not avoid it.

Part of the reason is that until WW1 (and the ACW in the United States) war was a much more limited affair: most men would not have to join the army to fight, much of the economy could operate on terms similar to peace time, and war wasn't nearly as destructive to the territories it was fought on. Think about it less in terms of how modern societies think about capital-W War but rather how people these days talk about air strikes or missile strikes. Maybe objectionable on moral grounds, but nothing to be too upset by because they don't pose a risk to yourself or people like you.
 
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I think the overall idea is pretty exciting, and something I've long wanted to see in a strategy game. However, I agree with @Call Me Vandal - there are a lot of difficult problems to work out in implementing it, and a superficial implementation could do more harm than good.
 
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I wonder if that makes sense for a population modeling game like Victoria though. Shouldn't it be the French population who dislikes you, which then becomes a political problem for the French government unless they go to confront Prussia? This leads us back to a much more realistic and immersive situation than before, and exactly mirrors what happened with the Franco-Prussian war.

Pop/IG desires should be the spanner in the works that makes it hard to make those strategically optimal choices.

It seems like a golden opportunity to root casus belli in the IGs in your government instead. Like, the religious IG wants you to go to war with the Ottomans as protector of the Christian faith? Great, invite them into your government and suddenly you get that useful "Protect our brothers of faith" CB against the Ottomans. Of course that may spell trouble if you actually want a liberal government to pass progressive reforms. Is the CB worth stalling your reforms? It would be such a good way to further intertwine domestic and foreign politics.

All of these sound amazing. If we drop strategic reasoning from the IGs, it seems more tractable. So the game would track the disposition of each IG towards each other power. Most of the time it would be a "don't care" attitude - actual positive or negative dispositions could be tracked as sparse vectors.

What about the role of government in inflaming or dampening the outrage of the interest groups? Or propaganda to sway IGs in other nations to have a more favourable attitude towards you? Or a less favourable attitude to someone else...
 
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Leoreth

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What about the role of government in inflaming or dampening the outrage of the interest groups? Or propaganda to sway IGs in other nations to have a more favourable attitude towards you? Or a less favourable attitude to someone else...
Yeah, I think this is where your interaction with diplomacy that is currently implemented in context-free "insult" and "fabricate" actions should go, in my opinion. Maybe propagandise against foreign nations, or denounce their actions internally, or deliberately insult them externally. Causing a reaction in domestic or foreign IGs that spirals further down into conflict. Could also be a useful tool to pry a potential target out of their overwhelming alliance network by goading them into attacking you (Franco-Prussian war again). Such actions could also be stronger if your government has a tighter control over the press.
 
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Al-Khalidi

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Yeah, something like that would be great. Although here I would be a little bit more careful from a game design perspective: it can easily become frustrating if the threat/infamy/whatever mechanic pushes against you for trying to be aggressive while the internal politics mechanic pushes against you for trying to be peaceful. I don't mind the scenario of being caught between a rock and a hard place in a tough moment, but this sounds like it could easily be a downward spiral in either direction that you cannot escape from.

But your mentioning of infamy (which we know isn't a thing in Vic3) brings to mind how penalties for military aggression and expansionism are modeled in the game. In all other Paradox games (and presumably Vic3?) this is something that accrues on the nation level. If I expand as Prussia in EU4 it is France who dislikes me for it.

I wonder if that makes sense for a population modeling game like Victoria though. Shouldn't it be the French population who dislikes you, which then becomes a political problem for the French government unless they go to confront Prussia? This leads us back to a much more realistic and immersive situation than before, and exactly mirrors what happened with the Franco-Prussian war.

As a further benefit, the <insert synonym for infamy> mechanics would then also apply to the player without "forcing" any actions on them. If a nearby power breaks international norms, your population expects you to act against them.

This isn't exactly the same as what Paradox is trying to model as "Threat", which is a more realpolitik and utilitarian way of looking at expansionist powers, but could be a good tool to model revanchism and the sense of national pride in the population (or at least, certain interest groups in the population).

In my opinion, the population/IG preferences should be for anything but strategic interests. You're right that the public usually doesn't think strategically in their foreign policy preferences, that's what the government does. And their thinking is alrady reflected in the player: as a player we are inclined to want to make strategically optimal choices (to the best of our ability).

Pop/IG desires should be the spanner in the works that makes it hard to make those strategically optimal choices. I don't think such desires are that hard to derive in a way that is historically intuitive, for example:
- religious and conservative IGs should support wars against powers with minorities of their religion, especially if their rights are limited (French and Russian wars against the Ottoman Empire)
- capitalist/industrial IGs should support wars that expand access to resources, e.g. colonial wars
- capitalist/industrial IGs should oppose wars / support cooperation with nations that buy their products, e.g. the US with the UK
- religious IGs should support wars against decentralised nations that can be proselytized
- people should favour cooperation with nations that share their culture/heritage, like how the German immigrants in the US opposed war with Germany
- people in general, but maybe particularly low education pops, should support revanchism and nationalism, i.e. recovering lost territory and bringing territory of the same culture under your control
- prestige should factor into this in general (i.e. the prestige outcome of your actions should affect opinion accordingly)

This doesn't have to be too punishing, it's not like the entire country riots in the streets because you aren't protecting Ottoman Christians (although maybe it's a different question when prestige enters into the equation). But it would cost you some opinion with an IG that is maybe the crucial support for the law you want to pass.

Also, I think this perspective could also offer opportunities to the player, not just limitations. We have no idea how casus belli work in this game, but I am hoping for something more substantial than "fabricate claim". It seems like a golden opportunity to root casus belli in the IGs in your government instead. Like, the religious IG wants you to go to war with the Ottomans as protector of the Christian faith? Great, invite them into your government and suddenly you get that useful "Protect our brothers of faith" CB against the Ottomans. Of course that may spell trouble if you actually want a liberal government to pass progressive reforms. Is the CB worth stalling your reforms? It would be such a good way to further intertwine domestic and foreign politics.


Those 1820s kids and their newspapers!

As others have pointed out, that is not actually the case in the 19th century. Famously even for WW1 people initially were excited to go to war, and public opinion pushed the involved governments to seek confrontation, not avoid it.

Part of the reason is that until WW1 (and the ACW in the United States) war was a much more limited affair: most men would not have to join the army to fight, much of the economy could operate on terms similar to peace time, and war wasn't nearly as destructive to the territories it was fought on. Think about it less in terms of how modern societies think about capital-W War but rather how people these days talk about air strikes or missile strikes. Maybe objectionable on moral grounds, but nothing to be too upset by because they don't pose a risk to yourself or people like you.
Here I agree that perhaps strategic interests might not be a factor for anyone, perhaps apart from military (I think Hindenburg was pushing for Germany taking russian Poland in order to better protect german flanks when next war breaks out...)
I also agree that degree of severity of consequences of not doing something some IG wants should vary, mostly moderate.
 
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Price21

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In particular, there should be ethnic concerns in terms of foreign policy. For instance, the Texans being attacked by the Mexicans and the Yankees thereafter admitting them into their union.

Or say for instance the Germans seek to eradicate the Poles, and their slavic brothers the Russians try to save them? Or historically, when Romania and Serbia were attacked by the Austrians, and the Russians stepped in to save them.
 
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luxfelix

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We should go as far as to say that population desires would be the ONLY factor behind computer's actions on international stage (and in some cases it should be visible for player) and a major thing for player: as much of opportunity as of obstacle.
Another thing to consider here is whether we are talking about population or rather interest groups? (Bcz they in fact consist of population). I think that some of perspectives presented here (cultural proximity influencing some actions on international stage) would be a factor for entire population, not just one interest group, some others - mostly for more than one (I imagine both capitalists, army, priests and burguoise would support getting colonies).

I'll throw this out there for consideration:


Placing these interactions at the interest group level allows for piggybacking on the mechanics regarding the leaders of those interest groups (and their individual traits) to interact with, bargain between, and more easily summarize/manage the factors surrounding pop demands.

(If corruption within interest groups is a thing, it will also likely be these leader characters that can be corrupted.)

Getting pops to act against their own self-interest falls somewhere along these lines.

Interest group leaders could act as the middle men, representing their constituent pops and gatekeeping the national leadership.
 
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David Tah

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Agree, but will have difficult in gameplay because the different between each pop.

For example in Britain Christian worker pop which have same culture (Anglo-Saxon), when Britain gorvement make decision to support the France interest group which want to make a revolt to overthrew the monarchy, some of them will strongly support (because of republic ideology) but some of them disagree because they support the monarchy system.

How the AI system to calculate and show the different react of pop?
 
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The Goldfinch

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Agree, but will have difficult in gameplay because the different between each pop.

For example in Britain Christian worker pop which have same culture (Anglo-Saxon), when Britain gorvement make decision to support the France interest group which want to make a revolt to overthrew the monarchy, some of them will strongly support (because of republic ideology) but some of them disagree because they support the monarchy system.

How the AI system to calculate and show the different react of pop?
Well I imagine it indeed could be calculated - as far as I know for example, a part of engineer pop might be socialist, and a part might be not. Similarly, maybe it could be calculated how many are monarchist, and how many republican?

Anyway in the case described by you, I would rather calculate support for this action based on axis: interventionist - isolationist, with some modifier considering current relations with France - the lower relations, the bigger the support. Plus, I would probably add a rule that Landowners would be scripted to highly dislike moves abroad directed at damaging monarchist status quo.
 
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Couldn't agree more - it was extremely annoying in Victoria 2 to see France suddenly move on to go to war and lose 300k soldiers after getting involved into crysis between Portugal and Netherlands over some tiny scrap of western Africa, after which they try to invade Spain because annexing Barcelona out of blue is such a lovely idea. People would eat the government members alive for such poliicies!
Which is only a slightly better reason for a world war than some bloke named Archie Duke shot an ostrich because he was hungry
 
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Skales

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A very interesting example. I had no idea that Bismarck wasn't interested in colonies and that German interest groups were pushing this agenda. I really hope that devs will seriously consider this, as these posts in this thread mention the crucial mechanism which basically made things happen between countries.
Another interesting thing mentioned in Your comment is burning out infamy. I wonder whether it will work like this in vic3, but I can certainly imagine an interesting problem - player's position on international stage is damaged by some aggresive movements, and yet they have to keep pushing for more because of internal pressure. I think that's what happened to Japan before ww2.

Bismarck wasn't keen on annexing Alsace-Lorraine either. He was pressured to do so by the Prussian military, it is easy to see how this could translate in game terms with the military interest group.
 
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