Political solution to the French stalemate

[Steel]

There was some discussion over in the GD forum about the "French stalemate" where AI Germany doesn't attack France in the '36 scenario because of fortifications in Sedan, Lille and Chaumont. Now, I've never even seen this stalemate (it doesn't happen in the more historical '39 scenario) so I'm not an expert in any way, but some comments made by leclerc made me think that a group of events could be used to solve this. I have no event writing skills (yet!) so I've put together event outlines rather than code.

I don't want the '36 scenario to be identical to '39, the way I see it '36 is alternate history and German victory shouldn't be certain or even 80:20. The idea is to represent the French and Benelux political climate through these events, allowing for a historical progression (no extended Maginot line) in most cases and a political cost for non-historical progression (extending the line pushes Benelux towards Axis). I don't know how historical this would be, I'm basically assuming that Benelux would view this as French isolationism and seek security through closer ties to Germany, possibly after their governments had fallen.

There should be a catch as well so that if Germany annexes or puppets a Benelux country prior to the Danzig event then the political climate in France and Benelux changes, disabling this string of events. This would slightly discourage a German player from a quick early war against Belgium (I know there's some events in some mods for that already, this is just to add to it).

I've limited these events to look at Lille, Sedan and Chaumont. Perhaps Chaumon should not be included here, I'd welcome views on that from those who know the history better than me. It would however perhaps be appropriate to include some other provinces as well for fort removal (basically anything north of Metz and east of Paris). Note: I don't know if there's a trigger for "land_fort>0" so I've assumed there isn't. The crisis event A option will just help France along a little, so I don't think it's a big deal if it should fire even when France doesn't have forts...

Also please note that these events would really only be worthwhile if testing the '36 scenario with a manual intervention to edit out the forts in Sedan and Lille actually opens up this front. If this doesn't work just ignore me! I'll test this tonight myself.

Event sequence outline:

- July 1939: French political crisis over fortification effort
Triggers: Germany exists; Germany is not at war with France or any Benelux country; Germany has not puppeted any Benelux country; Germany does not own any Benelux provinces; Benelux countries are not Fascist.
Option A: Description: "France is committed to the independence of Benelux." Effects: Remove all land forts in Lille, Sedan and Chaumont (-5 Fort level). Dissent reduced by 5. All Benelux countries influenced towards Democracy. IC increased by 3 in Lille, Sedan and Chaumont.
Option B: Description: "The safety of France is our first priority." Effects: Dissent increased by 5. Trigger "Benelux Outrage" events.

- Benelux Outrage
(separate events for each of Luxembourg, Belgium and Netherlands)
Option A: Description: "Right wing elements are gaining influence as France distances itself from Benelux." Effects: Influence towards Fascism.
Option B: Description: "Right wing elements seize power and seek ties with Germany." Effect: Trigger Fascist coup. War entry +5.
Option C: Description: "Right wing elements seize power and declare alliance with Germany." Effect: Trigger Fascist coup. Join Axis. War entry +10.




Note: The sequence of events where Germany remains passive and France selects the B option of keeping their border forts against Benelux actually opens a brief opportunity for Germany to create an Axis including Benelux and then fighting a one front war against France before the Danzig event. This is quite unlikely but adds a bit of calculated risk-taking for France if they haven't made Poland join the allies.

 

[Generalisimo]

well, i see that you have worked a bit more in your idea.
i see that as the best solution by now.
i will work in the events if you want

 

[Generalisimo]

i see a problem with the first event, it will trigger every time!!!

Triggers: Germany exists; Germany is not at war with France or any Benelux country; Germany has not puppeted any Benelux country; Germany does not own any Benelux provinces; Benelux countries are not Fascist.

that condition is "TRUE" in the first day of the scenario, so it will trigger, it is also true the next day, and the next, and the next.... until Germany DoW someone.
so we need more conditions for the "trigger".

 

[Steel]

Ok, so a start date of day 1 July 1939 and a suitable offset. Would offset = 30 ensure it happens within 30 days? Then a death date of day 1 August 1939, I suppose.

Thanks for helping out!

 

[Generalisimo]

well, i made the first event, take a look and tell me

##########################################
#  French political crisis over fortification effort 
##########################################
event = {
	id = 9050
	random = no
	country = FRA
	trigger = {
		exists = FRA #France
		exists = LUX #Luxembourg
		exists = HOL #Holland
		exists = BEL #Belgium
		NOT = {
			OR = {
				war = { country = GER country = FRA }
				war = { country = GER country = LUX }
				war = { country = GER country = HOL }
				war = { country = GER country = BEL }
				alliance = { country = GER country = FRA }
				alliance = { country = GER country = LUX }
				alliance = { country = GER country = HOL }
				alliance = { country = GER country = BEL }
				puppet = { country = FRA country = GER }
				puppet = { country = LUX country = GER }
				puppet = { country = HOL country = GER }
				puppet = { country = BEL country = GER }
				}
			}
		}

	name = "French political crisis over fortification effort"
	desc = "France is committed to the independence of
 Benelux or The safety of France is our first priority"
	style = 0

	date = { day = 1 month = july year = 1939 } 
	offset = 30
	deathdate = { day = 1 month = august year = 1939 }

	action_a = {
		name = "France is committed to the independence of Benelux"
		command = { type = land_fort which = 518 value -9 } #lille
		command = { type = land_fort which = 520 value -9 } #sedan
		command = { type = land_fort which = 556 value -9 } #chaumont
		command = { type = dissent value = -10 }
		command = { type = industry which = 518 value = 3 }
		command = { type = industry which = 520 value = 3 }
		command = { type = industry which = 556 value = 3 }
		command = { type = influence value = 30 } # 
		}
	action_b = {
		name = "The safety of France is our first priority"
		command = { type = dissent value = 15 }
		command = { type = trigger which = 9051 } # LUX
		command = { type = trigger which = 9052 } # HOL
		command = { type = trigger which = 9053 } # BEL
		}
}

i have omited:
"Germany does not own any Benelux provinces"
because if germany is not at war, doesn't have any of them as a puppet, how can they control one of their provinces?
"Benelux countries are not Fascist"
not posible, there is no command to check another country position, so i just ask if they are allied with Germany.
"All Benelux countries influenced towards Democracy"
not posible, there is no command to move others countries in the pyramid, so instead of that, i give France diplomatic points.

 

[Steel]

Awesome I'll load this up tonight for 5-10 test games. Thanks for the help.

 

[Generalisimo]

EDITED:
to make it more simple i uploaded the file in my page
here it is the link
you must use "Save target as..." do not left click because Brinkster doesn't suport remote linking.
just add that file and that's all


well, here you got more...
these are the events that triggers the option B of the french event...

#########################################################################
#  Benelux Outrage - Luxembourg
#########################################################################
event = { 
	id = 9051
	random = no
	country = LUX
	trigger = {
		 # French Forts 9050
	}
	name = "Benelux Outrage"
	desc = "Benelux countries are angry with the decision of France"
	style = 0
	
	action_a = {
		name = "Right wing elements are gaining influence as France distances itself from Benelux"
		command = { type = alignment which = fascist value = 50 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and seek ties with Germany"
		command = { type = trigger which = 9055 } # GER
	}
	action_c = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and declare alliance with Germany"
		command = { type = alliance which = GER }
		command = { type = trigger which = 9060 } # GER
	}
}

#########################################################################
#  Benelux Outrage - Holland
#########################################################################
event = { 
	id = 9052
	random = no
	country = HOL
	trigger = {
		 # French Forts 9050
	}
	name = "Benelux Outrage"
	desc = "Benelux countries are angry with the decision of France"
	style = 0
	
	action_a = {
		name = "Right wing elements are gaining influence as France distances itself from Benelux"
		command = { type = alignment which = fascist value = 50 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and seek ties with Germany"
		command = { type = trigger which = 9056 } # GER
	}
	action_c = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and declare alliance with Germany"
		command = { type = alliance which = GER }
		command = { type = trigger which = 9061 } # GER
	}
}

#########################################################################
#  Benelux Outrage - Belgium
#########################################################################
event = { 
	id = 9053
	random = no
	country = BEL
	trigger = {
		 # French Forts 9050
	}
	name = "Benelux Outrage"
	desc = "Benelux countries are angry with the decision of France"
	style = 0
	
	action_a = {
		name = "Right wing elements are gaining influence as France distances itself from Benelux"
		command = { type = alignment which = fascist value = 50 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and seek ties with Germany"
		command = { type = trigger which = 9057 } # GER
	}
	action_c = {
		name = "Right wing elements seize power and declare alliance with Germany"
		command = { type = alliance which = GER }
		command = { type = trigger which = 9062 } # GER
	}
}

 

[Generalisimo]

EDITED: for simplicity download the file in the previous post

 

[Generalisimo]

i made a mistake in the first event:
replace all "landfort" with "land_fort"
the file in my server has been updated

EDITED:
found another one:
these lines:
command = { type = land_fort which = 518 value -9 } #lille
command = { type = land_fort which = 520 value -9 } #sedan
command = { type = land_fort which = 556 value -9 } #chaumont
transforms in:
command = { type = land_fort which = 518 value = -9 } #lille
command = { type = land_fort which = 520 value = -9 } #sedan
command = { type = land_fort which = 556 value = -9 } #chaumont

file updated in server

 

[Steel]

Yeah thanks, I spotted the landfort error already

I also noticed that all 3 Benelux countries seem to pick the same option (even if it's B or C) every time - so on one test run all go for A, on the next all go for C. Some issue with the random number generator, maybe? Any idea how that could be worked around?

 

[Steel]

Ok, I've run 6 test games. Here's some observations:

- WW2 did not happen in one game as Germany backed down from the Danzig event

- In the '39 scenario France has 84 divisions vs 111 German divisions. In the '36 scenario France regularly fought with 130 divisions (30 militia) and at one time had 151 (50 militia). Germany typically had 80 to 120. This significantly changes the balance of power.

- In all games, France built up to level 4 forts in Sedan, Lille and Chaumont. They also built forts against Italy (Grenoble, Toulon).

- In one game the event kicked in prior to some forts being completed. France therefore fought with level 1 forts in Sedan, Lille and Chaumont. This did not stop Germany from overrunning all three provinces.

- In all other games, there was no forts in Sedan, Lille and Chaumont. Germany overran the defenders there in each game.

- At best, Germany conquered as far as St Malo and Vichy. They never destroyed the Maginot pocket (though they did take Metz) and typically had 40 divisions guarding the French forces there.

- Paris never fell (all games were stopped August '41) although it was often attacked. The smallest defending force was 16 French divisions (December 1940), the largest was 47 (34 army, 13 air). Germany at best had 31 army divisions attacking.

- In several games Spain and Italy made some gains. Only once did they link up with German forces and they never took Vichy. In most games, Spain was pushed back to their own border within some months.


Preliminary conclusion: the events achieve the wanted effect by eliminating the stalemate on the French border. However, they will clearly not ensure a German victory.

EDIT: Fixed typo.

 

[Steel]

German victory

The 7th game finally saw Germany focus their efforts on Paris instead of Metz. They advanced on a fairly broad front and attacked Paris from 3 directions, it became quite a large battle with over 20 divisions on each side and lasted for a month before Germany won.

 

[Generalisimo]

Some issue with the random number generator, maybe? Any idea how that could be worked around?

not that i know...

i studied all the commands right now, and i could not find any that suits that.

 

[Generalisimo]

i tested once and Germany beated France in September of 1940

I was Swiss, so no help from my side, i just watch the German roll over France

Currently Germany has 124 units, 83 infantry + 17 armor + the rest, thanks to Trip's AI
France lost the battle with 90 units, most of them infantry. Before loosing Paris they created a lot of militia, but Paris fall soon, so i could not count them

 

[Steel]

I ran some additional tests. If the Benelux countries go for Option C to join the Axis they don't actually move towards Fascism which resulted in the Netherlands promptly leaving the Axis within a week. Perhaps adding command = { type = alignment which = fascist value = 100 } would prevent this.

Nightmare for the French:

In this test the event resulted in Belgium holding Antwerpen for about a year against determined French and British assaults. When it was lost, Germany recovered it for Belgium However, after eliminating the Dutch turncoats Germany did not attempt further action in the north (the French forts were level 4 in Lille, Sedan and Chaumont with level 5 upgrade in progress).

In the meantime, France annexed Luxembourg but Germany made a 66 divisions strong assault on the Maginot line and took both Colmar and Strasbourg. Having eliminated those French forces (which normally tie down 40 German divisions) Germany then conquered as far as Toulose on the Spanish border while the battle raged for Paris. Vichy was created in October 1940.


Footnote: I reloaded the game (June 1939) and this time France removed the forts (they got level 1 forts again January 1940). The British took Wilhelmshafen with 2 divisions (!) in December 1939. Germany overran the Brits and then the Benelux countries, broke through in Sedan and Chaumont (February 1940), took Metz (June 1940), destroyed 22 Allied divisions in Lille after encircling them (January 1941) and finally installed Vichy in March 1941 after a long battle for Paris (35 German divisions vs 20 Allied).

While only 2 test runs were done here, it was interesting to see the war lasting 6 months longer with the forts removed. The primary reason for this seemed to be the time needed to gather enough forces to destroy the 22 divisions in Lille.