Poland caves! Danzig corridor to Hitler!

[Rommel41]

So I was thinking, considering the political and military situation at the time, would Poland giving-in to German demands actually hurt Germany?

Having expended the last of the Allies appeasement on the Czechs, and committing a lot to the Russians as well as getting the German war-machine ready for the kick-off, how badly would the Polish accession be for Hitler?

Would he have attacked anyway? Thoughts? I hate things going off-track before September 1, 1939, personally.

 

[LordOfWar16]

Well, Hitler certainly didnt expect to be pulled into a war that early, since they still had the Plan Z going to build up their navy which was cancled once the war broke out. Hitlers goal from day1 was to retake what in his eyes rightfully belonged to germany and to destroy the communist threat in the east. He had, however, no interest in a conflict with the western powers. It was a question of "when" and with "who" not "if" war broke out. The western allies actually made themself look very weak when they gave in so often before without any resistance, so Hitler thought they were bluffing with Poland's guarantee.

Just as Stalin Hitler would have attacked poland either way at some point. The molotov-ribbentrop pact had a protocol in it that divided territories of romania, poland, lithuania, latvia, estonia and finland into a german and a soviet "sphere of influence".

 

[Rommel41]

His last-minute dealing with the Russians and the vast concessions he made to ensure a passive east so he could turn west makes me think he knew this was likely the moment his bluff would be called.

1944 was an ideal date. I think he was prepared enough to take the risk.

 

[Sharp163]

Bad? Why would it be bad for Germany? If anything, this is good for Hitler.

Here would be the immediate effects of ceding Danzig.

Poland would immediately become dependent upon either the USSR or Germany (probably the latter) due to no longer having a port (or sea border for that matter). They would be within Germany's sphere of influence, most likely.

I assume you consider it "bad" because Hitler wanted to use this to start the war. That is true, and a valid point, but hitler could just as easily manufacture another scenario in a month or two. Next thing you know, he'll be demanding a partition of Switzerland, invading Luxembourg, or trying to protect ethnic Germans within the former Austrian empire. World War Two was inevitable. Whether it ignited over Poland or something else a month later, it doesn't matter. The only difference is that the war would likely begin in early 1940 when Germany invades Switzerland, trying to capture the mountain forts quickly before France sends reinforcements (as they guaranteed switzerland's independence).

Hitler wanted a war. And he would get it, one way or another.

 

[Fulmen]

Bad? Why would it be bad for Germany? If anything, this is good for Hitler.

Here would be the immediate effects of ceding Danzig.

Poland would immediately become dependent upon either the USSR or Germany (probably the latter) due to no longer having a port (or sea border for that matter). They would be within Germany's sphere of influence, most likely.

I assume you consider it "bad" because Hitler wanted to use this to start the war. That is true, and a valid point, but hitler could just as easily manufacture another scenario in a month or two. Next thing you know, he'll be demanding a partition of Switzerland, invading Luxembourg, or trying to protect ethnic Germans within the former Austrian empire. World War Two was inevitable. Whether it ignited over Poland or something else a month later, it doesn't matter. The only difference is that the war would likely begin in early 1940 when Germany invades Switzerland, trying to capture the mountain forts quickly before France sends reinforcements (as they guaranteed switzerland's independence).

Hitler wanted a war. And he would get it, one way or another.

Hitler starting WW2 over Swiss Germans in 1940? Yeah no.

A much more plausible scenario would've been the demanding of other pre-Versailles German territories held by Poland in the spring of 1940. The rest of the Polish Corridor for example.

 

[Sharp163]

Hitler starting WW2 over Swiss Germans in 1940? Yeah no.

A much more plausible scenario would've been the demanding of other pre-Versailles German territories held by Poland in the spring of 1940. The rest of the Polish Corridor for example.

I thought this was included in the Danzig demands

Also: Hitler was quoted in having called Switzerland "a pimple on the face of Europe" and greatly wanted to absorb its German speaking population, as part of his eventual goal of uniting all German speaking people within one country. They even had plans to invade Switzerland, but this was shelved due to needing troops for the eastern front, and not wanting to fight an uphill battle (literally) against Swiss geurilla mountain warfare until they had some more pressing needs taken care of (eg. Britain, Russia)

 

[Fulmen]

I thought this was included in the Danzig demands

No. Hitler wanted to construct an extraterritorial highway to connect Pomerania to East Prussia and IIRC to return Danzig to the jurisdiction of the Reich.

 

[Sharp163]

No. Hitler wanted to construct an extraterritorial highway to connect Pomerania to East Prussia and IIRC to return Danzig to the jurisdiction of the Reich.

Well, the invasion of Czechoslovakia had proven that Hitler was insatiable and untrustworthy, which is why the western allies guaranteed Poland. To be honest, it is unlikely that they would have backed down after Hitler invaded Poland.

 

[frolix42]

His last-minute dealing with the Russians and the vast concessions he made to ensure a passive east so he could turn west makes me think he knew this was likely the moment his bluff would be called.

Internal documents and strategy show that after 24 August 1939 German leadership was uninterested in a peaceful solution to Danzig, at least in regard to dealing with Poland specifically. If Hitler expected that France and UK would not honor their guarantee to Poland, he would not have felt the need to make a Pact with the Soviet Union. I agree with you that by August '39, Hitler knew that the British and French probably would come to the aid of Poland. If Poland caved in to German demands after 24 Aug, the date on which the M-R Pact was announced, it would've been extremely awkward to cancel and rewrite the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. In the week before 01 Sep, Hitler had already decided that war was imminent the diplomatic maneuvering at this point was merely smoke and mirrors for the purpose of deflecting some of the blame from Germany for starting a second world war.

I don't like how Paradox chooses to do the 'Danzig or War' decision. Historically Germany presented their demands to Poland for Danzig in early '39, Poland essentially rejected these demands in April 1939. The decision to give up Danzig was no longer valid for Poland after the M-R Pact was signed.

1944 was an ideal date. I think he was prepared enough to take the risk.

What do you think 1944 was an ideal date for? At the start of 1939, Germany had successfully wrong-footed the Allies in regards to mobilization. After the partition of Czechoslovakia, the Allies belatedly restart their rearmament in earnest. At this point Germany begins to fall behind in relative strength to UK-France, therefore Hitler cancels the absurdly unrealistic Z-Plan for the navy and prepares for imminent war. If Germany is obsessed with using it's military to satisfy it's revaunchism, 1939 stands out as the ideal date to start a war.

If Germany waits until 1944 to start a war, they will have fallen far behind the Allies militarily since German would be essentially been closed off from the world economy concentrating on building massive fleets of ships and planes. Germany at peace would struggle to maintain this massive military and have no hope of keeping it upgraded. An analogy would be that of North Korea and South Korea. North Korea has a much larger focus on military production but it's actually much weaker than South Korea militarily because it's been focusing so much of it's energy for years on maintaining a ridiculously large army.

 

[Fulmen]

Well, the invasion of Czechoslovakia had proven that Hitler was insatiable and untrustworthy, which is why they guaranteed Poland. To be honest, it is unlikely that they would have backed down after Hitler invaded Poland.

I think what he wanted was a series of land grabs or smaller wars in Eastern Europe until a final showdown with Russia, but he never really wanted a war with the West (though he strongly disliked the French, he did admire the English).

After Danzig the next logical step would've been to keep pressuring Poland, eventually turning them into a satellite state dependent on Germany and forcing them to return all the pre-Versailles German territories.

I imagine German territories in the West such as Elsass-Lothringen and Eupen-Malmedy would've been demanded at some point, probably after Russia had been dealt with.

But as we now know, the Allies did not and would not have allowed Germany to grow that powerful without going to war. Hitler on the other hand did not know this in August 1939 when he gave the order to invade Poland.

 

[Rommel41]

What do you think 1944 was an ideal date for?

It was in reference to planning in Hitler's mind long before the events of 36-39 sped things up. Not a concrete date in 1939, for certain.

Edit: I'm also thinking about the Russian moves. They would likely carry out the provisions involving everything but the Polish territory. And being as Stalin considered this a pretty serious deal, I think Germany backing-down from immediate war would provoke serious problems for the aims of Hitler. The west would be gearing-up, Russia would still get its Winter War lessons and have a much shorter line to face Germany on. I think the war had to happen.

 

[Nicolas I]

...Hitlers goal from day1 was to retake what in his eyes rightfully belonged to germany...

Never heard about Mein Kampf and Lebensraum ?

 

[myzael]

Here would be the immediate effects of ceding Danzig.

Poland would immediately become dependent upon either the USSR or Germany (probably the latter) due to no longer having a port (or sea border for that matter). They would be within Germany's sphere of influence, most likely.

Yeah, but being in German SoI wouldn't be as bad, most likely. Poland and Germany were pretty cordial between 1933-1938, at least compared to other German relations.

At least there would be a higher chance of Poland not being ceded to communists after the war.

Also, assuming nothing would escalate, and exteritorrial highway and ceding of Gdańsk wouldn't have mattered that much for Poland, if you disregard the prestige hit. Poland had a fully functional port in Gdynia built from ground-up. The Danzig proposal did contain guarantee of other Polish western borders, agreement on revision of polish eastern borders and formation of Polish-Hungarian border. Signing up to the anti-comintern pact on top of that.

 

[WeissRaben]

1944 was an ideal date. I think he was prepared enough to take the risk.

Ideal date? Yes, with the small - insignificant, really - caveat that the German economy would have melted down a couple of years before. In 1939 Germany was starting to run critical shortages in everything, from rare materials to copper to hard currency to buy them elsewhere, and only the looting of the surrounding treasuries saved them... momentarily. The truth is, Germany more or less had to loot somewhere, by 1940. It wouldn't have survived to 1944.

 

[shri]

Ideal date? Yes, with the small - insignificant, really - caveat that the German economy would have melted down a couple of years before. In 1939 Germany was starting to run critical shortages in everything, from rare materials to copper to hard currency to buy them elsewhere, and only the looting of the surrounding treasuries saved them... momentarily. The truth is, Germany more or less had to loot somewhere, by 1940. It wouldn't have survived to 1944.

The Anschluss of Austria and the Munching of Bohemia meant the Nazis were ok for now, Poland was poor in contrast to the far richer prizes and in itself did not provide much to the Reich, in-fact the main provider of material between late 1939 and Barbarossa was the USSR. The Gold repatriated from these two countries was enough for over 2 years of imports and the MEFO bills were doing the rest.
The 1937-1938 collapse was more probable than a 1940 collapse, in the words of - von Weizacker - " We have already surmounted our great problems in the mid and late 1930s, now we are capable of meeting the challenges head on and defeating them". Bombastic words in 1940 but had a ring of truth.

Delaying war by a year or even 18 months would have actually benefited Germany, against the Western allies esp. UK but would have more or less made Operation Barbarossa impossible.

 

[WeissRaben]

The Anschluss of Austria and the Munching of Bohemia meant the Nazis were ok for now, Poland was poor in contrast to the far richer prizes and in itself did not provide much to the Reich, in-fact the main provider of material between late 1939 and Barbarossa was the USSR. The Gold repatriated from these two countries was enough for over 2 years of imports and the MEFO bills were doing the rest.
The 1937-1938 collapse was more probable than a 1940 collapse, in the words of - von Weizacker - " We have already surmounted our great problems in the mid and late 1930s, now we are capable of meeting the challenges head on and defeating them". Bombastic words in 1940 but had a ring of truth.

Delaying war by a year or even 18 months would have actually benefited Germany, against the Western allies esp. UK but would have more or less made Operation Barbarossa impossible.

I was thinking more about '42 than '40, really - Austria and Bohemia had given some respite, but it wasn't nearly enough to go on enlarging the war economy. Really, Germany in '40 was more or less as ready as it was ever going to be, assuming the lead-up to that date was identical, and any attempt to roll out more tanks without the gold of Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France would have seen them bite into civilian budget way earlier than OTL, and to a greater and greater scale.

Moreover, Barbarossa being impossible would have defeated the whole thing: Communism was the beast Hitler wanted to strike down, and anything that would have stopped him from doing so would have been a failure.

 

[Zhivets]

Never heard about Mein Kampf and Lebensraum ?

That was his goal though. He says so in Mein Kampf. He wanted to unify the Germanic peoples under one flag.

 

[Evan05]

The Anschluss of Austria and the Munching of Bohemia meant the Nazis were ok for now, Poland was poor in contrast to the far richer prizes and in itself did not provide much to the Reich, in-fact the main provider of material between late 1939 and Barbarossa was the USSR. The Gold repatriated from these two countries was enough for over 2 years of imports and the MEFO bills were doing the rest.
The 1937-1938 collapse was more probable than a 1940 collapse, in the words of - von Weizacker - " We have already surmounted our great problems in the mid and late 1930s, now we are capable of meeting the challenges head on and defeating them". Bombastic words in 1940 but had a ring of truth.

Delaying war by a year or even 18 months would have actually benefited Germany, against the Western allies esp. UK but would have more or less made Operation Barbarossa impossible.

But war between the USSR and Germany was inevitable. Having such two powerful countries right next to each other, whose ideologies fundamentally conflicted with each other, and both ran by bloodthirsty dictators and by a totalitarian regime, there was no way war wouldn't have ultimately broke out. However, with Stalin's purges still going on and reorganization still happening, the Soviet Union was weak and ready to be trampled on in 1940/41. But if Hitler waited until the Soviets recovered, then as you said, Operation Barbarossa would've been impossible.

By delaying the war to past 1940/41 would've ultimately doomed the Reich in the long-term.

 

[Sharp163]

But war between the USSR and Germany was inevitable. Having such two powerful countries right next to each other, whose ideologies fundamentally conflicted with each other, and both ran by bloodthirsty dictators and by a totalitarian regime, there was no way war wouldn't have ultimately broke out. However, with Stalin's purges still going on and reorganization still happening, the Soviet Union was weak and ready to be trampled on in 1940/41. But if Hitler waited until the Soviets recovered, then as you said, Operation Barbarossa would've been impossible.

By delaying the war to past 1940/41 would've ultimately doomed the Reich in the long-term.

You're forgetting the fact that they came quite close to allying.

 

[leazriz]

In 1939 the Nazy cash machine was overheated. Rearment was too costly and they would had to slow down. You can't produce tons of military goods to let them rust on a field and become obselete.