Intresting points and counterpoints here
After reading this I figure I'll toss my .02$ into the mix.
From what I am reading, there are two sides to this debait about NK/US-SK and the possibilities of a shooting war. While there is a remote possibilty of it happening, it's very slim for one basic reason.
Who's going to throw the " First Punch "
NK - NK more than likely will not unless Kim gets drunk one night and decides to let it ride. They would not have the support of China this time around, all the humanitarian aid that is being sent by sea would quickly be cut off from a US-SK blockaid, and then, to top it off... what do they really have to gain from a shooting war? Nothing.
US - The US-SK need not throw the first punch because the waiting game is taking it's toll on NK, no food or power to speak of, roads and rail lines? yeah, right. The US dosen't need to make a move right now, cause THEY HAVE NOTHING TO GAIN from it. See how that works? most wars are started over two things, religion and commerce, granted in the last hundred years religion has taken a back seat with the exception of islamo-fascists. With that said I don't see much comming from invadeing NK at all... it's pointless and a waste of lives and money.
No since we are talking about what would happen if a war broke out let's say, for the sake of discussion, that one did.
A non NBC shooting war with NK vs US-SK
NK - Well they do have a million men in there army, impressive yes. They do have the terrian, mountians and such, cold and desolate places to fight. They are a bit fanatical, and that does count for something yes. Then we look at the way they fight... Soviet ( yes, you heard me right, Soviet ) Doctrine. Were talking wave attacks with thousands apon thousands men thrown into a meat grinder, little to no initative on the part of the junior officers from company up to regiment level, and equipment that is outdated by a good ten to fifteen years if not more.
US/SK - Poor defensive position ( look at Italy in the 40's, always eazier to fight going down country than up ) and a rather large and defenseless civilian population in places like seoul and such. Also a limited amount of forces in country atm, not enough to face a million screaming commies from the north. Then again this is the most advanced military in the world atm, also with iraq and afganistan, it's got more combat experance than most, if any.
Looks like apretty good fight I'll admit, both sides having some major advantages and disadvantages. I think you'll see it play out like this.
NK makes major gains for the first week mabey two weeks, but with some seriously appaling casuality numbers to show for it. After that the US will take air superiorty with a series of attacks from naval CAG's and stealth aircraft, hitting radar and airfields. After that it's pretty much over. The few railyards and road networks in NK will cease to exist, along with there ability to supply there troops... since there nation is already pretty much starving, how do they plan on supplying a full scale military operation in the first place?
On the side of ground warfare the US/SK forces are going to take a serious beating at first, but they will stop the NK forces with proven NATO doctrine of targeting comand and control of the NK corps/divisions and regiments. Remember that lack of initative we talked about before, well if you take out the few people in a soviet model force that make the calls... the whole thing comes to a stop. The Captians and Majors not knowing what to do next. With NK's outdated, under trained air force out of the way... well all the echelon waves of NK troops are sitting ducks, think the highway of death from GW1, but on a much larger scale... there is no were to run or hide with armored formations in the barren middle ground of korea. Now all of this depends on the US-SK forces gaining control of the air... I don't see the NK forces maintaing AS with what they have to work with.
Also another thing to consider, night fighting. The US does that very, very well. If you can expand your timetable and your ability to operate, you can really hurt the Commies during the 9pm-6am hours, when aircraft can target the masses with almost impunity.
All in all I see NK hitting hard and fast, but becomming bogged down after two weeks tops, and US retaliation will be swift and harsh with there supurb aircover until ground forces can be brought in. If this were a boxing match I'd say rounds 1-3 go to NK, after that it's a US KO in the 8th.