Planetary Unification - more than a Sci-fi trope?

[Aramel]

This is kind of like asking 17th-century Italians if they think Italy will ever be unified. Who can predict what will happen in 200 years?

 

[mrinku]

Possible, though wealth plays a huge part in it too, so the USA will be able to stick its flag quite a few places, and likely open up immigration limits to help populate it just like they did with the west. Still, if you want some betting odds, look to India. They could be a surprise player in space, competing with China and the US in the far future.

Yeah, India is a player if they want to be. And the Russians can't be totally counted out... they DO still have the best manned launch system at the moment. They're effectively a space taxi service for hire right now, if you have the cash.

Comparisons with the American west are probably invalid, though. People can't just buy a wagon and head out. It'll be far more like setting up bases in Antarctica.

 

[Zyrious]

Yeah, India is a player if they want to be. And the Russians can't be totally counted out... they DO still have the best manned launch system at the moment. They're effectively a space taxi service for hire right now, if you have the cash.

Comparisons with the American west are probably invalid, though. People can't just buy a wagon and head out. It'll be far more like setting up bases in Antarctica.

True, but then that would apply to china and india as well, so their population advantage wouldn't mean much in the space race. I was just saying that if it was ever an issue of populating colonies, the US could open up immigration to keep the mainland populating while offering subsidies or cheap tickets to the colonies with gaurentee'd job offers.

Still you're right though, any one of those can be a major player and hopefully they actually compete with eachother since that drives space development more than anything else. I just wish i was born 100 years later to see when all the interesting stuff starts happening. Who knows though, maybe tomorrow an EM drive will blow up during testing and cause a chair to warp to china and as a result we'll discover FTL.

 

[Juboboman]

For all we know we are entering another 2000 years of more or less sameness until another great spurt occurs.

Someone living in 200BC vs 1600 AD wouldn't be THAT different. Life for them certainly would not appear magical as it would comparing someone from 200bc vs today. For all we know things slow down to the point where if we view someone living 1500 years from now it does not appear extraordinarily unfamiliar to us. Maybe then something happens and they go through a couple hundred year spurt where things compound.

We could be colonizing the stars in 150 years, or 15,000 years we could still be sitting here hoping we get off this rock some day.

 

[mrinku]

True, but then that would apply to china and india as well, so their population advantage wouldn't mean much in the space race. I was just saying that if it was ever an issue of populating colonies, the US could open up immigration to keep the mainland populating while offering subsidies or cheap tickets to the colonies with gaurentee'd job offers.

Still you're right though, any one of those can be a major player and hopefully they actually compete with eachother since that drives space development more than anything else. I just wish i was born 100 years later to see when all the interesting stuff starts happening. Who knows though, maybe tomorrow an EM drive will blow up during testing and cause a chair to warp to china and as a result we'll discover FTL.

It's not the actual population for emigration, but the industrial and economic potential that they provide that's important. In the forseeable future the number of available colonist spots will be tiny compared to ANY country's population, so overqualified volunteers really won't be a problem.

One thing that may keep a lid on off-world politics are how they effect things back home. China's moonbase isn't going to attack India's moonbase if that's going to trigger a Sino-Indian war back on Earth. On the other hand, if the events are reversed the gloves are going to come off on Luna while Asia burns...

(Metaphorically - no one takes their gloves off while in a spacesuit!)

 

[Arroz]

The New York Port Authority is a US Organization, not a UN based organization. Just because we need to organize and regulate space doesn't mean we lack the capacity to do it without the UN. A USAF-Coast gaurd equivalent mixed with space-based federal, local, and corporate organizations could regulate space ports, stations, and colonies just as they could anywhere else. I fail to see how you're imagining we would lack the logistical capability to track and regulate commerce through US territory. This isn't coruscant, and space travel isn't going to be flowing with space taxi's and space RV's, it will be significantly reduced traffic even in the future, compared to what we deal with on the surface of the Earth, with massive freighters dropping off freight at space stations and space elevators to then be handled by local services to take it down to the surface.

The issue with space junk is entirely separate from what we're talking about, and is more an issue of polluting space with defunct, unused satellites and materials coming off secondary modules and rockets than with traffic.

I realize the New York Port Authority is not a UN-based organization. I never said it was. What I'm saying with that comparison is that when you've got a very busy and crossed hard or like the Earth's gravity well is going to be, you need some sort of controlling body in place.

I realize this isn't Coruscant, but it doesn't have to be. I'm also not talking about space junk. Also, what in the world makes you think space traffic decrease in the future? Launches are speeding up and space traffic is increasing currently, a trend that's likely to only accelerate in the future. You'll need some sort of regulation for the same reason you can't run New York Harbor without any controlling body. Sure you won't have speedboats and all that other stuff going around, but what you will have is private space stations, private launches, private satellites, private freighters, government stations, government launches, government frieghters, exploratory missions, etc. It will be a busy place, and like I said, good luck getting other countries to allow any one country to run the orbit authority.

US or China would rather have the UN to protect their space-based assets over doing it themselves, how is that not more naive than what i am proposing? Look at the congressional debates that went on over space bodies just a couple months ago, they were talking about how they need to push for the ability to maintain US sovereignty and prevent international interests from hampering or dictating to US expansion in space.

See the thing is that allowing the UN to run orbits and space wouldn't hamper national authority in terms of their mining and colonizing efforts. In my system, the UN doesn't run the planets. The UN acts as the orbital authority and probably as some sort of Deep Space Police. Congress wouldn't need to be worried about this because the UN Space Commission won't be saying "no asteroid mining." They'll be saying "no bringing asteroids into this orbit, all frieghters should use these orbits, piracy in space is illegal, etc."

I am not saying the US is going to claim all of Sol, but you can dictate immediate area's directly above colonies into orbit and around space-based facilities. And just like with international waters, nations would have their own fleets that would protect against pirates or aggressive action of other nations outside of their own immediately owned territory. I doubt the nations of earth would see the need to create a massive regulatory and military organization that would compete with their own authority when they can do it themselves. Also, 180 nations aren't going to have space agencies, most of them will operate through the larger nations space agencies or have license agreements with them (for a fee) to operate through their facilities or colonies.

I think you're really misunderstanding how orbits work here and how established international law (that we can't change unless you want to get rid of every single satellite in orbit) is set. We can't claim space up into orbit. We literally cannot do that because national airspace ends at a certain altitude. Without that provision, all satellites would have to be in geosynchronous orbits above their countries or they would be violating someone else's airspace every time they made an orbit. Spacecraft don't orbit nicely above their respective nations. They go around the entire Earth. Unless they're in a geosynchronous orbit they will not stay over one country. You can't think of space around a planet like some map we can easily divide up ALA EUIV. It just doesn't work that way.

 

[mrinku]

In addition, unless your country happens to have equatorial real estate, you can't have a geosynchronous satellite permanently above your territory.

So Ecuador,Colombia, Brazil, Sao Tome & Principe, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya,Somalia, Maldives, Indonesia and Kiribati would probably vote for it. USA, Russia, China, India and EU... not so much.

 

[Arroz]

In addition, unless your country happens to have equatorial real estate, you can't have a geosynchronous satellite permanently above your territory.

So Ecuador,Colombia, Brazil, Sao Tome & Principe, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya,Somalia, Maldives, Indonesia and Kiribati would probably vote for it. USA, Russia, China, India and EU... not so much.

That's a very cogent point. Thank you for pointing it out!

 

[Zyrious]

I realize the New York Port Authority is not a UN-based organization. I never said it was. What I'm saying with that comparison is that when you've got a very busy and crossed hard or like the Earth's gravity well is going to be, you need some sort of controlling body in place.

I realize this isn't Coruscant, but it doesn't have to be. I'm also not talking about space junk. Also, what in the world makes you think space traffic decrease in the future? Launches are speeding up and space traffic is increasing currently, a trend that's likely to only accelerate in the future. You'll need some sort of regulation for the same reason you can't run New York Harbor without any controlling body. Sure you won't have speedboats and all that other stuff going around, but what you will have is private space stations, private launches, private satellites, private freighters, government stations, government launches, government frieghters, exploratory missions, etc. It will be a busy place, and like I said, good luck getting other countries to allow any one country to run the orbit authority.


See the thing is that allowing the UN to run orbits and space wouldn't hamper national authority in terms of their mining and colonizing efforts. In my system, the UN doesn't run the planets. The UN acts as the orbital authority and probably as some sort of Deep Space Police. Congress wouldn't need to be worried about this because the UN Space Commission won't be saying "no asteroid mining." They'll be saying "no bringing asteroids into this orbit, all frieghters should use these orbits, piracy in space is illegal, etc."


I think you're really misunderstanding how orbits work here and how established international law (that we can't change unless you want to get rid of every single satellite in orbit) is set. We can't claim space up into orbit. We literally cannot do that because national airspace ends at a certain altitude. Without that provision, all satellites would have to be in geosynchronous orbits above their countries or they would be violating someone else's airspace every time they made an orbit. Spacecraft don't orbit nicely above their respective nations. They go around the entire Earth. Unless they're in a geosynchronous orbit they will not stay over one country. You can't think of space around a planet like some map we can easily divide up ALA EUIV. It just doesn't work that way.

First off you have completely misunderstood or intentionally misrepresented what i was saying. Space traffic is picking up, but even in the future it will be less traffic than what american agencies deal with daily, that was my point. The US would be more than capable of handling traffic to and from its own space stations. It would be able to coordinate and handle launches. There is no need to cede control to the UN. Just like we have american agencies that deal with civilian, military and industrial ports and airports, so too would they handle american spaceports, space elevators, and space-stations. They would work with each other and with other nations equivalent agencies, without the need for some overbearing body involved.

Also, i am well aware of how orbits work. Are you being intentionally dense and or just taking the opportunity to try and be patronizing. When i say the space around the space station, i mean just that. The immediate area around the space station, wherever it is, when you would be approaching it to dock, or wait to dock, or whatever,"Space station airspace" which would belong to the station's nation. Whether in low orbit of the earth, at a Lagrange point, or elsewhere. Also, the UN would never be allowed to be a policing body, it isn't allowed that now and it won't be allowed that in the future. The UN is merely the place where nations go to project their power and meet behind closed doors, the actual policing is done by the nations themselves and no one wants or needs to have the UN to become a global or extra-global police force.

Again however, you seem to have trouble understanding(or just intentionally misrepresenting) just how little space traffic there will ever be compared to just how much air travel and naval travel our ports, airports, and ATC towers deal with on an hourly basis, which consistently growing at an exponential rate. Even in 100 years, it will be easier for controllers to handle space traffic than air traffic or naval traffic. When we have freighters and miners and supply ships moving to and fro, i can guarantee you without a shadow of a doubt it will pale in comparison to what JFK and the New York Port Authority deal with. You are over exaggerating it to necessitate something that is not needed. Each nation is capable of handling its own traffic, monitoring it, and enforcing it's own regulations, and nations already coordinate that globally on a naval and aerial level as it is, doing so on a orbital level would be easier, and interplanetary level even easier as the traffic that far out would be even more sparse.

There's no need to expand the UN to do policing duties when countries can do that themselves as they are currently doing. There is no need to create a massive UN Regulatory and Traffic control administration because countries can do that themselves as they are currently doing. No offense but your idea seems to rely more on the hopeful thinking of diminishing national roles in space travel so as to promote more unitary efforts, which i find dubious and highly unlikely except in joint, scientific endeavors. And again, You know very well the US would veto anything that would give the UN body itself any kind of enforceable policing ability whatsoever. In fact, most of the big nations would.

Then, besides all of that, this is all completely off the point of the fact that there will never be a global government, and 1,000 years from now, assuming FTL within that timeframe for the sake of argument, it would not be unusual to expect each nation having its own set of colonies and space forces similar to the US Air Force Space Command(Yes that's real, currently it's mostly satellites and 2 drones).

Really it seems like we mostly agree except with how to handle intersteller trafficking and air traffic control. We're essentially having a beauracratic debate on administrative efficiency and self-sufficiency versus more global coordinative efforts, while agreeing on that fact that regardless nations will continue to spread out into space on their own and the likelyhood of a unified government for humanity at this point is highly suspsect and likely could only come at the end of a gun and would be short lived.

 

[vyshan]

of course, if we come in contact with an alien empire, things could be very different.

 

[SacremPyrobolum]

You know the annoying about the US is them telling us to give up our (ie Brits for those not in the know) sovereignty in favour of staying in the EU. Bloody people in charge having double standards, but I digress. Civilization will probably exist for a long time as a whole. but it will probably be fragmented with its little countries and ideals under the greater banner of humanity.

Hey man, as an American I feel for you. While I support our President putting the our countries interests first and foremost I couldn't help but feel bad about how upfront he was about weighing into another countries domestic issues. Kinda like ow I don't like it when people say we should hear what foreigners have to say about our current elections. We aren't voting for the sake of foreigners.

Anyways, I believe that a "unified space government" will come about the same way the Alliance did in Mas Effect, where it started out as an international space initiative that was dependent wholly on Earth's governments. While it had no power on Earth, it had complete authority on everything outside it, so as Earth became more and more dependent on colonies the Alliances power grew until it became the de-facto governing organization of all humanity. I believe that Earth's governments still exist to this day, but largely handle domestic matters.

 

[Zyrious]

Hey man, as an American I feel for you. While I support our President putting the our countries interests first and foremost I couldn't help but feel bad about how upfront he was about weighing into another countries domestic issues. Kinda like ow I don't like it when people say we should hear what foreigners have to say about our current elections. We aren't voting for the sake of foreigners.

Anyways, I believe that a "unified space government" will come about the same way the Alliance did in Mas Effect, where it started out as an international space initiative that was dependent wholly on Earth's governments. While it had no power on Earth, it had complete authority on everything outside it, so as Earth became more and more dependent on colonies the Alliances power grew until it became the de-facto governing organization of all humanity. I believe that Earth's governments still exist to this day, but largely handle domestic matters.

Not quite. The Alliance originally worked much the way Arroz described the UN working in his theoretical, it helped regulate overall space that all nations agree'd to and helped solve disputes, but each nation actually still had colonies as well as corporate colonies. Each nation also had its own military fleet in addition to the alliance fleet. At this point, the alliance had no governing body to speak of and was just a space-UN/Space-NATO. Who had more say in the alliance was dependent on how much money you put into the alliance. So the alliance was essentially space-Nato + china. However, when the first contact war started the alliance military was able to respond quickly and decisively while the national militaries were stuck while the various national governments debated on how to respond and how to mobilize/coordinate their military forces. As a result of this display, after the war the Alliance gained way more power and eventually gained its own legislative body while the Earth nations slowly lost individual influence and power, however they counteracted that by pooling their efforts into gaining higher representation in the Alliance governing body.

Individual nations still exist, and there is actually a codex entry on a planet that 3 nations fought over(verbally/legally not militarily) and that the alliance had to force all 3 to split the planet, i think each one got their own continent/subcontinent.

 

[SacremPyrobolum]

Not quite. The Alliance originally worked much the way Arroz described the UN working in his theoretical, it helped regulate overall space that all nations agree'd to and helped solve disputes, but each nation actually still had colonies as well as corporate colonies. Each nation also had its own military fleet in addition to the alliance fleet. At this point, the alliance had no governing body to speak of and was just a space-UN/Space-NATO. Who had more say in the alliance was dependent on how much money you put into the alliance. So the alliance was essentially space-Nato + china. However, when the first contact war started the alliance military was able to respond quickly and decisively while the national militaries were stuck while the various national governments debated on how to respond and how to mobilize/coordinate their military forces. As a result of this display, after the war the Alliance gained way more power and eventually gained its own legislative body while the Earth nations slowly lost individual influence and power, however they counteracted that by pooling their efforts into gaining higher representation in the Alliance governing body.

Individual nations still exist, and there is actually a codex entry on a planet that 3 nations fought over(verbally/legally not militarily) and that the alliance had to force all 3 to split the planet, i think each one got their own continent/subcontinent.

It would be interesting if instead of starting off as a unified species you would instead start same as the Alliance as some sort of international organization that is subservient to the whims and intrigues of the home planet and have to fulfill certain criteria before becoming a "proper" space empire and get to choose what type of government you want (I love forming nations in EU4 and Vicky 2). During this time, you could also develop the ethos it will follow based on how you react to certain events, such as first contact with intelligent life. A much more engaging and immersive experience than just selecting them from a menu. Would give your empire real, deep history.

 

[Arroz]

Really it seems like we mostly agree except with how to handle intersteller trafficking and air traffic control. We're essentially having a beauracratic debate on administrative efficiency and self-sufficiency versus more global coordinative efforts, while agreeing on that fact that regardless nations will continue to spread out into space on their own and the likelyhood of a unified government for humanity at this point is highly suspsect and likely could only come at the end of a gun and would be short lived.

I think you're grossly underestimating just how much traffic there will be, especially once we've started settling other planets. In addition, I think you're underestimating the pressure from corporations and NGOs when it comes to forming a single set of regulations. In the end, though, all of our points of contention come down to inherently unprovable ideas about the future geopolitical and economic situation. If history has taught us anything it's that trying to extrapolate that far ahead and act like you're right is an exercise in futility (albeit an interesting one).

Anyway, you're right that the argument it off-point when it comes to answering the central question of the thread. Well fought.

 

[Zyrious]

I think you're grossly underestimating just how much traffic there will be, especially once we've started settling other planets. In addition, I think you're underestimating the pressure from corporations and NGOs when it comes to forming a single set of regulations. In the end, though, all of our points of contention come down to inherently unprovable ideas about the future geopolitical and economic situation. If history has taught us anything it's that trying to extrapolate that far ahead and act like you're right is an exercise in futility (albeit an interesting one).

Anyway, you're right that the argument it off-point when it comes to answering the central question of the thread. Well fought.

You're right of course it is really hard to extrapolate and i could very well be wrong. Honestly, i hope medical technology improves or we have a lucky early FTL breakthrough so me and you are around to see it all in person! Heh, one can dream right?

 

[Arroz]

You're right of course it is really hard to extrapolate and i could very well be wrong. Honestly, i hope medical technology improves or we have a lucky early FTL breakthrough so me and you are around to see it all in person! Heh, one can dream right?

I have the same hope. I'll be very happy even to be wrong just because it means I'll get to see us start to explore the stars! Living long enough to see us throughout the Solar System would work for me too. Once we're there interstellar flight is just a matter of time.

 

[Plasma Master]

I will never understand why a unified Earth is such a frowned upon idea. Why not live in a world where people can choose what culture they want to be a part of? The world would be a far better place if we had one language, one set of morals, and no deity-based philosophy, along with a few other things that I won't mention here. In the end we are all the same species, conflict amongst ourselves is what sets us apart from other animals and is what constantly threatens to end our species entirely.

Perhaps as we mature more people will understand that nationalism is outdated and dangerous.

 

[Valindonn]

Really this discussion is based in whether international affairs and by extension space exploration/exploitation will be better suited to a competitive or communal setting. Both have their advantages and both have their disadvantages. In term's of a unified earth there is a long list of barriers in terms of a political union but an economic union is plausible. With the global economy we have now it seem's more likely that we will shift towards the competitive setting simply because that is how historical events have placed us. This of course depends on what actions the global powers will take in the next 30 years.

 

[hay82]

I don't think we'll ever have a unified earth, not unless something forces us to, and by that I mean something that kills most of us and coming together is a matter of survival. Even then it probably would only last until people were back on their feet. If it were to happen I don't see it happening as a democracy either, the politics of such an undertaking would be far to complex.

I find it a bit strange that people talk about nations colonizing other planets. I don't think there's any way that a single country would attempt that cost and risk on their own. Certainly not the nations we have today. The International Space Station isn't the result of a single country but rather quite a few agencies working together. I think colonizing would start like that, space agencies working together to do all the research, testing and initial cost. The first colonies will be primarily research. It would need to be in this phase that international rules were agreed upon about how to colonize space, if that doesn't happen then I don't see it ever happening. Given the nations we have today I'd imagine we'd likely have corporations going into space and colonizing once it's been established that there's a good chance of profit.
Once a planet is colonized by one or more corporations I can't imagine them not eventually thinking they can do without certain laws and taxes inforced by earth and we'll suddenly have colonized planets ruled by companies, probably not a single company but rather an oligarchy.

 

[Murmeldjuret]

The cost of a single mistake in space, total destruction of the satellite, and the sheer number of satellites means you have to have an authority that controls it. There are already agreements in place between ESA-Russia-NASA. All launches are followed and tagged. There is no satellite launched that the others do not know about. What the satellite does is what can be hidden behind "weather satellite". The cost of misplacing a satellite or not knowing about a satellite means your satellite has a chance to be hit and be destroyed, and with the cost of a single launch being what it is, I see it as inevitable that an organisation like ICAO emerges for space flight control. You know what satellites your opponents have anyway so why not reduce the risk of accidents?

It won't have political power or the authority to stop launches or exert any power the others do not concede to it. Any colonization of space is not going to be like the 1500-1600s. Nations can't afford to go to war over colonies in space. The cost of a war has become staggering, and any real war would cost more than the total cost of human space exploration per month. No nation has the economic strength for war. There is no reason to assume the colonists even want or even would care for earth nations, it takes a certain someone to settle a new world, and that is usually not the loyalist. The number one proponent for non-involvement from states would be the colonies.