Peace chance % depending on losses suffered?

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Titan79

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What about making countries more willing to accept peace (at least a "white peace") when suffering heavy losses? This should apply especially to democracies, where public opinion could be very negatively impressed by a great defeat (= loss of divisions) and then ask to put an end to hostilities. This could be modelled by raising the % chance that the A.I. would accept a ceasefire (in example, after a repelled D-Day).
 

sam73

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I am not sure it is as simple as dictatorship take more casualties without breaking. How much the general public is prepare to pay for a war, depends on what they will get out of winning and what they will lose if their country fail.
The Japanese accepcted huge sacrificies because they thought, via propaganda, that they were wining a huge Empire, until the very end. Once it was clear this was not the case, the collapse of moral was quite quick.
The general public in Germany however, felt from Stalingrad onwards that the war was unwinnable. But as Roosevelt declared that the allies will only accept unconditional surrender, they were prepared to fight to the bitter end given the uncertainty of what they will get if they gave up.
The Russians knew that losing meant their extermination as a people, so it was a no brainer for them to fight fanatically. And when they were in the offensive, the desire for revenge must have been a huge motivator. At any rate, having to confront 75% of the strengh of the Wermacht, they were bound to suffer huge casualties regardless of their motivation.
The British new their existance as a people was not at stake, only a position of Empirial priviledge that was disappearing anyway. So they were more reluctant to take casualties for places like Singapore. Had their Island being invaded, perhaps they would not have been so shy fighters during the war.
Therefore, the system should be one that measures the risk and rewards involved for each country, when factoring the "price" their peoples are prepare to pay before breaking.
 

Titan79

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Well, it would be a (remote) chance i.e. for the Axis powers to somehow reverse the course of the war by repelling a major Allied landing or by in any case destroying a large number of divisions at once. This wouldn't lead to the surrender of the enemy, of course, but only to a bigger chance that a peace treaty is accepted - treaty which, obviously, could be broken after a few months.
Don't you think there was a chance that, if the D-Day didn't succeed, the US would sue for a (at least) temporary peace with Germany?
 

Balesir

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The British new their existance as a people was not at stake, only a position of Empirial priviledge that was disappearing anyway. So they were more reluctant to take casualties for places like Singapore. Had their Island being invaded, perhaps they would not have been so shy fighters during the war.
For the other countries you mention I am dubious about the somewhat glib summation of their outlook you give, but this particular one does not accord with my appreciation of the situation at all.

In the first place, the British people were quite clear that their whole way of life was what was at stake; Nazism was quite clearly incompatible with their hard-won traditions of democracy and gradually developing tolerance. The chances of the British government, especially with Churchill in charge, agreeing to a detente with Nazi Germany was nil.

In the second place the Imperial position was by no means "disappearing" before the war at all - it had never been stronger, in fact. Its nature and constitution was changing, but then it had done so since before it was even regarded as an "Empire", so that is hardly surprising. It was in the later stages of the war and thereafter that the "Empire was lost", as some would have it. The reasons were mainly US influence, the fact that Britain was economically drained by the war and the nationalist movements that were in many cases deliberately encouraged as a force on one side or another in the war itself.

Finally, the loss of Malaya/Singapore had nothing to do with 'shy' fighting - the troops defending there were mostly Indian, not British, and though they did not lack either skill or determination there were too few of them and with too poor a strategic plan. The root of the problem lay, in fact, in the strategic planning outlook of the Imperial government in the inter-war years, which was driven by harsh realities of what the Empire could afford. The strategy was one of "two out of three"; in other words, the Empire had to operate in three theatres - the Home Islands, Northern Europe and the Atlantic was one, the Mediterranean and "Middle East" was a second and India and the "Far East" a third. The Imperial forces were constituted to be able to deal with serious threats in any two of those theatres at one time. When serious threats arose in all three at once (from Germany in Northern Europe and the Atlantic, from Italy in the Mediterranean and North Africa and from Japan in the Far East) the Imperial Government found itself catastrophically under-resourced, with no coherent plan and pretty close to out-and-out panic. The command paralysis, insufficient defence force and general mishandling of the situation that led to the fall of Singapore was the most obvious result. The bottom line is that the British Empire at the end of 1941 had one full-size army and two full-size fleets to cover three large arenas of operation - it wasn't enough.

I would say more about the multi-ethnic nature of the USSR and how it was far from clear that their "extermination as a people" was at stake, but rather they were motivated (as many times before in history) by a basic love of Mother Russia or their respective homelands, a dedication to Communist ideals (albeit possibly brought about by brainwashing - but what belief in a political system is not, to some extent?) and fear of the 'Political Officers' - but my knowledge in that area is less well founded, so I'll leave it to others.
 

Blecky

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Still I think the idea of an influence of losses towards a better chance for a cease fire is quite good. IIRC the Japanese had hoped that by inflicting heavy losses on the US forces the public opinion in the USA would change to a "it´s not worth it". They knew quite well they wouldn´t be able to stand a prolonged war against the USA, so they tried to make it as costly as possible. Attacking Pearl Harbor without a DOW however spoilt this effect.
 

sam73

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For the other countries you mention I am dubious about the somewhat glib summation of their outlook you give, but this particular one does not accord with my appreciation of the situation at all.

Balesir, although all the points you make about the British Empire are very valid, I am not sure this addresses the argument of the OP on how losses affect the % chance of a country surrendering.

My point, and I admit that the examples to ilustriate it are just my opinion, is that the level of losses a people would accept before surrendering depends on the perceived risks and benefits associated to the fighting, rather than their respective political systems.

So take my examples just as ilustrations, perhaps not true to facts as they are purely especulative. Ignoring the British case and focusing in Russia. They were invaded by Germany both in WWI and WWII. In both cases they were under a none democrative regime. However, the first time around the regime collapsed with a much lower level of casualties. In my opinion, this is partly because the perceived risk posed by Germany was very different in both cases.
 

Balesir

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Balesir, although all the points you make about the British Empire are very valid, I am not sure this addresses the argument of the OP on how losses affect the % chance of a country surrendering.
You are quite right, mea culpa - I should have followed my usual policy of letting answers to this sort of issue "ferment" over a day or two to crystallise my point better before I post... Apologies.

My point, and I admit that the examples to ilustriate it are just my opinion, is that the level of losses a people would accept before surrendering depends on the perceived risks and benefits associated to the fighting, rather than their respective political systems.
Where I should have put my emphasis was around this, because this is the nub of where I don't think I agree with your analysis (even though I don't necessarily agree with losses => willingness to come to terms). In actual fact I think HoI3 has got it pretty much right in concept, here. "The people" don't decide when a nation surrenders or agrees terms - those in power do. HoI3's mechanism of "national unity" - which is explicitly described as the extent to which the leadership of the country are behind continuing the war - deciding issues of surrender and peace terms is pretty much spot-on. The "people" figure into the picture only in that dissent will arise if they are unhappy with their situation. Dissent will not directly lead to surrender or seeking terms, but it will affect the decision - all the easier in a democracy, since the established mechanisms by which those in power rely on popular assent to retain their position are clear and accepted routine, rather than eventual violent overthrow...

For AoD a radically expanded political system was outside the chosen scope; the existing system, with appropriate tweaks, is simple (even simplistic) but functional.

So take my examples just as ilustrations, perhaps not true to facts as they are purely especulative. Ignoring the British case and focusing in Russia. They were invaded by Germany both in WWI and WWII. In both cases they were under a none democrative regime. However, the first time around the regime collapsed with a much lower level of casualties. In my opinion, this is partly because the perceived risk posed by Germany was very different in both cases.
OK, I understand the point, but I disagree with the the deduction. I would ascribe the disintegration of the Russian state in 1917 to a complete failure of the Russian Czar to unite those with political power in the country behind his cause and behind the war effort. In addition, of course, there was an extreme level of dissent (which is in itself frequently engendered by a disunited leadership - a point that I'm not sure HoI3 covers at all, but then I haven't played it that much, yet). Although this dissent certainly affected the performance of the forces in the field (as it does in both HoI2/AoD and HoI3), it was not in itself the reason for capitulation.

In WW2, on the other hand, a bloody and vicious civil war had had the effect of both uniting the Russian leadership (since those not "on message" were either dead or imprisoned) and convincing the people that things could be (and had been) worse and were getting better. Add in a foreign power rudely interfering with their new-found stability and nascent recovery and I find it no wonder they were full of determination to kick the invaders out! ;)
 
Apr 1, 2009
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Well - are we talking about few majors or about general rule? USSR, USA, UK, Germany and maybe few more - they were all exceptions. Most countries surrendered - remembver Holland? Bombing of cities was a major reason. I dont care about GiE in this case - you could say that they didnt surrender due to that fact - GiE were formed AFTER country was defeated.
NU in HoI3 is a good way to simulate that but even though there are no good peace options there and must be event based, sad..
 

Titan79

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Still I think the idea of an influence of losses towards a better chance for a cease fire is quite good. IIRC the Japanese had hoped that by inflicting heavy losses on the US forces the public opinion in the USA would change to a "it´s not worth it". They knew quite well they wouldn´t be able to stand a prolonged war against the USA, so they tried to make it as costly as possible.

Well, I was actually referring to this concept when I first posted the thread. I wasn't talking about a surrender of a country when it suffers high losses, but rather about the chance that a nation that is currently winning a war (in game terms: has gained many VPs or has much more forces than the enemy, or whatever) would accept a ceasefire if delivered a painful blow. I had in mind virtual examples like a repelled D-Day or a successful Ardennes offensive or, on the Pacific theatre, a even bloodier conquest of islands like Iwo Jima or Okinawa. More simply, think about operation "Olympics" and "Coronet" (the invasion of mainland Japan) and the horrible losses predictions within the American troops: would the US public opinion (and therefore the Congress) really be ready to accept some 300.000, 500.000 or even more casualties...?

IMHO, in real life these scenarios could have led to a separate peace - or at least to a sort of ceasefire - by the US. This could be modelled in the game by rising a bit the chance to obtain "tolerable armistice terms" if striking a killing blow to the enemies.