Past Decisions: Documents from the United States Archives, 1967-1984 and onwards

[El Pip]

To return to the AAR, there's clearly much more to this than anyone involved knows (even the shadowy gentlemen haven't 'cracked it', whatever it is).

A good job on putting some interest into the US path to war (even at 30 years distance it's still a long haul to await the archives)

 

[Striker475]

El Pip - Yeah. That's the big problem I found with my other US AAR - it's bloody hard to make 1936 - Fall Gelb entertaining. Sure, there's the SCW and the Sino-Japanese War, but outside of those it's rather...plodding.

Update coming!

 

[Striker475]

​

New Years Questions

February 28, 1968, Library of Congress, Washington D.C., United States

Madison's wait for the 1937 Cabinet and classified documents had been compounded by the events of the previous August. Now, not only was it relevant to his studies, but also had reasoning for a murder.

The headlines from people reading the newspaper around the library screamed. Viets Fight Back! New Years Offensive Strikes at Army! South Vietnam Under Siege!! Madison proceeded to the desk, the same lady from nearly a year ago greeted him.

"So much for President Kennedy being smarter than his brother, Mr Madison," she smiled.
"I'm a historian, not a political analyst, Ms...?"
"Bieber. Margaret Bieber."
"Well, Ms. Bieber, I was wrong, I'm sorry," Madison smiled.
"Apology accepted. Here's your documents, Mr. Madison," Ms. Bieber smiled back, handing Madison the Cabinet documents for 1937.

SUMMARY OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY - 1936-37

The expansion of our economy was begun in early 1936, with large numbers of factories ordered to be built. The intention is to expand our industrial base by nearly a sixth of 1936 levels by 1940-41.

Economic expansion of this sort is crucial to assist the country pull itself from
the depths of the Depression.

Furthermore, with the completion of the USS Yorktown and USS Quincy, an expansion of the US Merchant Marine was ordered, as per your orders, along with an expansion of the escort destroyers of the US Navy.

In addition, with production expansion we intend on ordering two of the new Yorktown-class** carriers as soon as feasable, expanding the USN's carrier sizing to six CVs by the end of 1939.

Finally, research on new areas of science and military tactics expanded, encompassing a wide variety of new areas, including a new fighter for the USAAF, new destroyer and light cruiser hulls, new infantry and cavalry formation tactics and weapons and new agricultural ideas.

Recovery is slow, but will continue.

Henry Morgenthau
Secretary of the Treasury

Expansion of the merchant marine? Why in the world would they need that? The US has never had the merchant needs of the British or the pre-war Japanese. And the escorts...FDR was expecting someone to hit US convoys. In the Pacific? The Japanese wouldn't dare. And the only Atlantic possession requiring convoys was Puerto Rico...and the British were the only naval power with the range and bases to hit there. And the Brits wouldn't dare.

What was FDR thinking?

Madison doubled over all his notes, made sure he had copies of US production statistics, before proceeding.

 

[Striker475]

***File Removed***

February 28, 1967, Library of Congress, Washington D.C., United States

Madison's interest in the production and research statistics was now overriden by another, more pressing concern: the intelligence reports of 1937 from the three perceived threats.

German, Soviet and Japanese Intelligence Reports - 1937

Analysis

Germany
The Germans continue to expand all aspects of their armed forces. Much of the data is still sketchy due to a lack of HUMINT.

Japan
Japanese data indicating further expansion of the IJN is a worrying sign. Further intelligence gathering is required.

USSR
The USSR continues to greatly expand their armed forces, modernising as they add further divisions to the army which is already the world's largest.
However, development of armored formations as well as the VVS is difficult to track, and thus further intel is still needed.

Madison noted that industrial capacity reports were missing - odd, considering the expansion and recovery of Germany's economy at the time was a marvel compared to the West. Furthermore, the growth of Japan's navy is not really commented upon, as well as a lack of intelligence depth regarding forecasting the Kriegsmarine.

Madison found the folder containing the industrial reports. The folder had been stamped.

***FILE REMOVED***
***PLEASE CONTACT YOUR COMMANDING OFFICER OR SUPERIOR***​

 

[El Pip]

I wondered how long until Madison started encountering removed or restricted files, now I know.

I suspect as he gets closer to the start of the war he will find the gaps increasing as more 'sensitive' (or embarrassing) files are removed or just mysteriously missing.

 

[Striker475]

Quick apologies - i've got a concert all day today, work all day tomorrow. Expect an update around Tuesday afternoon Australian Eastern time.

 

[Striker475]

The Sino-Japanese War - July 1937 to January 1939

March 14, 1968, Library of Congress, Washington D.C., United States

Madison had spent the past two weeks searching for post-war research on economic expansion within Nazi Germany, the USSR and Japan that occured before the war. He'd found the data he needed - Germany expanded its economy by about 10%, the USSR by about 9% and Japan by less, approximately 5%. But the missing figures in US intelligence still concerned him. Could it be related to the death of Cowell in Oxford?

Madison's research, however, took him to Asian modern history, and in particular, the Sino-Japanese War. The US, it seemed, had an interest in the war - not from a victory perspective, but from an Axis diplomatic perspective. For this was the first time that Hitler's Germany had come under the pump with regards to a diplomatic situation. The Reich had supported the expansion and training of the Nationalist army with supplies, arms, and officers, with the most noticable being the withdrawal of Alexander von Falkenhausen as military advisor to Chiang Kai-shek.

He reviewed, once again, the Sino-Japanese War. War began on July 5, 1937, with shots being fired in and around the Marco Polo bridge near Beiping. Japan began an immediate offensive in the north, marching into Shannxi-controlled areas around Beiping and heading for the Yellow River.

Marco Polo+15 - Japan moves south​

Japanese armies then proceeded to assault beaches around the coast of China. Nanjing fell in mid-August, and the massacre there was an unmitigated horror. The IJA proceeded inwards and south, seizing Xi'an and landing further down the Chinese coast.

Marco Polo+60 - following the fall of Nanjing​

The IJA continued to assault coastal positions. Landings along the Chinese coast were unavoidable, as Japanese superiority inland plus complete IJN control of the Chinese coast meant that the Japanese could attack at will.

Marco Polo+90 - Continuing advance​

IJA forces continued to defeat the Nationalists and punch inland, eventually seizing control of Chongqing for a time, as well as marching on Yan'an beyond. However, the Nationalists counterattacked, returning control of Chongqing - now the industrial center of the Nationalists - and Yan'an to Chinese control.

China six months after the Marco Polo Bridge incident.​

By 1939, the front had stagnated. Japan, while having superior forces, was struggling with partisan problems behind its lines, while the Nationalists did not have the training or industrial base to build up to counter-attack the IJA in its current position.

The situation in China, January 1, 1939​

Madison, however, noted the German response. Germany wanted an ally in the East, to keep the Soviets honest. However, in 1936 China was clearly not going to be in any position to threaten the USSR by 1939, and the Japanese were primarily a naval power, not a land one.

Hitler's ideological obsession with destroying the Soviets was well known. Not so well-known were his reasons for wanting an invasion of Siberia...even now, nothing more than wasteland was there. The US, too, had an interest in pursuing assistance to China. Something was puzzling in the Far East.

 

[Striker475]

I wondered how long until Madison started encountering removed or restricted files, now I know.

I suspect as he gets closer to the start of the war he will find the gaps increasing as more 'sensitive' (or embarrassing) files are removed or just mysteriously missing.

Sorry for the late reply. And there will be a surprise. A big one.

 

[David Knudson]

Am I missing something? Apart from the mysterious people watching him, this guys hasn't found anything that wouldn't have been in a high-school history book - and except for minor differences, this TL seems pretty close to ours.

Mike Turcotte

 

[Nathan Madien]

Oh, cool. I find this AAR to be intriguing.

 

[Striker475]

DavidK - It's kinda hard to differ from history up until the start of the war. Even postwar, an American victory generally creates a relatively historical postwar situation - unless you play ahistorical. Which is where I come in

Nathan Madien - Thanks. I liked your Hoover to Dewey AAR a lot, and I personally enjoy the micro/macro challenge of playing as the US. It's hard to get a difficult game though, which is why I'm using WiF.

 

[Striker475]

Letter from the Beyond

September 29, 1968, Norfolk, Virginia, United States

Madison's studies into the 1937 cabinet archives had proved inconclusive. He attempted to pore over every detail, trying to work out why those intel files were missing...but to no avail.

After months of lacking any sort of tip-off, Madison rested, returned to lecturing at the War College. Returning to his home in Norfolk, however, he discovered a document envelope under his door. Taking it inside, he opened it.

The file was marked TOP SECRET.

Office of the Secretary of State
June 7, 1937

Threat Ratings and the Intent of the United States

While peace does still reign across the world, the threats to the United States is nonetheless palatable. No nation threatens American interests more than the Soviet Union. The Soviets have the potential, if left unchecked, to spread communism to China, Europe and the Middle East either through subversion or by force.

As such, it is my perogative as Secretary of State to direct that we support both the German and Japanese governments as counterweights to the USSR in Europe and Asia respectively. They both have the military strength to threaten, and while it is unlikely that the Germans or the Japanese induvidually have the ability to destroy the USSR, combined they certainly have that strength.

This support is to come in the form of non-military trade to assist both German and Japanese armies in their advances.

Cordell Hull
Secretary of State

Before Madison had reacted, he noticed two handwritten notes at the bottom.
"Hull must be removed as soon as a suitable replacement is found -- FDR"
"Thought you could use this Madison. Hope it helps. JC"

Madison proceeded to copy the entirety of the document into his notebook, then took the original and placed it in a lockbox he had in his basement.

 

[El Pip]

"Hull must be removed as soon as a suitable replacement is found -- FDR"
"Thought you could use this Madison. Hope it helps. JC"

This captures one of the reasons I like the AAR, there's two levels of intrigue going on, 30 years apart obviously, but thanks to the lag they are 'simultaneous'.

Interesting sting in the tail of that note, look forward to seeing where Madison goes from here, in both plots

 

[Striker475]

This captures one of the reasons I like the AAR, there's two levels of intrigue going on, 30 years apart obviously, but thanks to the lag they are 'simultaneous'.

Interesting sting in the tail of that note, look forward to seeing where Madison goes from here, in both plots

Thanks. Means a lot from someone who's written one of the best AARs running around.

Probably a double update tomorrow - gotta muck about and remove Fall Bifrost. I hate that event. While I'm cool with the Nationalists joining the Axis and all, Bifrost just makes it far too silly.

 

[Striker475]

Tensions

April 19, 1969, Lisbon, Portugal

Madison stood at the memorial. "Dedicated to those who lost their lives defending our homes and the pride of Portugal during World War II." The memorial itself was a simple one, a spire apexing with a flagpole, flying the Flag of the Liberation - the first Portugese flag to be re-flown over Lisbon during the Allied invasion of Iberia, taken from the Portugese wartime capital of Bissao in West Africa.

Madison reflected on the past two years, then opened his notebook to read over his reflections on the 1938 cabinet papers.

"Nazis increasingly supporting Nationalists to victory."
"Germans increasing support for Austrian Nazi Party - leads to Anschluss"
"Allies still appease-friendly."
"Soviets prepared to mobilise to defend Europe?"
"Stalin trusts his military staff - Tuchavesky et al - despite their support for Trotsky."
"US to expand armed forces following on from industrial expansion."
"Stagnation of Sino-Japanese War."
"Assassination attempt on von Ribbentrop?!"
"Still nothing to indicate threat from Germans, Soviets or Japanese. Dismissal of Hull immediately after the Anschluss directly linked to TS doc? Hull death in 1942 at hand of "Nazi" spies a fraud? Vandenburg becomes Secretary of State."

Madison sighed. Still nothing unusual. He got up and headed for the airport - he needed to get to Oxford, to follow up Cowell's message.

Across the street, a man folded up his newspaper and followed quietly.

 

[El Pip]

A great many interesting hooks in that one, tantilising deviations from the well worn path to war.

One thing I did like was the way all the 'changes' are just dismissed as 'nothing unusual', which of course is true for Madison, but not your enjoying readers.

 

[Striker475]

The Pen and the Sword

April 24, 1969, Oxford, United Kingdom

What did German-speaking Irish Republicans want with a pro-Republican history lecturer? Madison had the remains of Cowell's notes spread in front of him. The last few days of notes were obsessed with the Spanish Civil War - more importantly, the German involvement.

Then he found a link - to the German diplomatic manoeuvers of 1938-39.

"German forces using Spain as training grounds for war? Anti-Republican "hit squads" in fact elite German groups specialising in Republican cells. Also train, advise Nationalist groups in Republican areas.

Similar anti-Czech reports in prewar Czechoslovak Government archives - before Munich - Sudeten Germans, no less. Similar reports re: Austrian Nazis.

Squads noted for locking down particular areas esp. high industry - industrial parts of Prague, Vienna, Madrid. Goal of German-acquired industry = ???

What do prewar Repub. Spain, Austria, Czechs have in common w/ industry??

Being followed. German-speakers. Also a Frenchman??"

Madison was curious. Hitler's unification goals for German-speakers was a cover for something? Surely not - Austria, Czechoslovakia and Spain were as similar as chalk and cheese.
However, Madison was particularly worried by the last line. Cowell had been SOE during the war, counter-intelligence within the UK. If anyone knew when they were followed, it was him. Could someone be still hiding something about the war?

There was one more scrap of paper.

"Americans have an idea. Vietnam War a possible cover??"

 

[El Pip]

Ahh, another connection between the war and 'present' day. I admire Madison's determination, a lesser man might be intimidated by the risks they're running.

Even if he is unaware of his tail he must be aware that following Cowell's path, or even a similar parallel one, runs the risk of meeting the same fate as Cowell.

Brave man.

 

[Striker475]

Death by Drowning

July 27, 1969, Norfolk, Virginia

TOTAL WAR
Nuclear weapon detonated in Hamburg; US troops to withdraw in 72 hours​

Similar headlines were splayed across the world's papers. The Germans threw their last-gasp weapon at the Americans. The US military prepared to retaliate, with their full resources.

The fifth nuclear weapon to ever be detonated. Trinity, Little Boy, Fat Man, Harry's Will and now the new bomb, Hitler's last gasp.

Madison's thoughts were conflicted. Horror, anger, fear, a sense of surreality. For he was on the ground in Hamburg, watching the fire of death come to consume him...

A cold sweat awoke him. The nuclear fear was real. The fact was not. Hamburg was not annihilated. He was at home, in bed in Norfolk, not with the "Pathfinders" back in Europe.

Madison tried to return to sleep, but sleep wouldn't come. He worried...for what if that nuclear threat was real? Could the Germans have built the bomb? And if so...

 

[El Pip]

Another fine update, I'm really enjoying the alt-hist twists being dropped naturally into the story.