Well... sometime the AI does make clever decisions yet risky decisions, so I'm not finding the AI to be really cautious in my experience.
Example A: Tibet. The Tibet in my game is getting huge: They are the third biggest landmass in the game, a bit bigger than what Ming starts with. Tibet certainly didn't went cautious to get this size, and they are still fighting wars and expanding. That's in 1530.
Example B: Me as Sweden. I'm ranked #1 in the world and I have a big empire, but not gigantic, with only 10 badboy points. I have got so far in two wars against Bohemia, on the behalf of my life-long ally Saxony, which resulted in a shrinked Bohemia (Still larger than game-start Bohemia though).
Well, after Bohemia secured Hamburg (With 4 territories with one in my backyard and a surprising 10k army in total) and Lithuania as ally (Empire about the same size as mine and twice the land tech I have), Bohemia declared war on me. I eventually won the war (With the help of Saxony and of my allied vassals), but it took over two years, and I lost 6 territories in total at the worst point, and burned out most of my ducat reserve (Went from 32 to 46 regiments in order to eventually win), and only managed to save one of my vassals in extremis. It was certainly a great attempt by Bohemia, and was one of the funnest war I've done so far, and one I probably would have lost without Saxony's outstanding help as usual.
Fact is, Bohemia alone wouldn't be a match at all for me, but once it secured Hamburg and Lithuania as allies, together they had a good chance of winning, and the AI did actually declare war then. It still wasn't really a "cautious" move as none of them individually were able to match me (Except for perhaps Lithuania, but it's Bohemia that declared on me).