I think we're getting distracted. The point is not about wether westernization is too widespread among certain AI countries but wether it's a fun a mechanic to play with, and if not how to fix it.
Dahomey or whatever westernizing early in certain conditions is irrelevant. Because regardless of the frequency of such happenings, it doesn't tell us wether the mechanics is fun or not for the player.
Also we already established that immersion and realism (which are highly subjective anyways) were irrelevant for Wiz in this case. Gameplay comes first.
I don't think there's a question about whether it's a fun gameplay mechanic. I don't think I've ever seen anyone say they want to keep westernisation as it is - the most favourable thing I can recall is people saying "it'll do until they come up with something better". Further, from a gameplay perspective, if we don't care about historical plausibility (which I think would be a mistake, from a gameplay perspective, but that's a whole 'nother issue altogether), I'd just get rid of it. If EU4 is trying to become Risk-in-detail, then a historically implausible and not particularly fun (in that it basically means more waiting around, with very little in the way of interesting gameplay or choice) mechanic has no place. If EU4 is shooting at historical plausibility, then the current westernisation mechanic doesn't hit that mark either.
There have been a bunch of suggestions, ranging from simple tweeks to rates of change for westernisation, to complete overhauls of the tech/westernisation system. I can't imagine that the devs aren't looking into it, but we'll just have to wait and see I guess.
On the topic of how widespread it was, that was raised in the OP, so I'm not sure that's besides the point.
@TheMeInTeam,
@josh127 and I were debating how widespread historically implausible westernisation is. He'd been claiming the AI didn't westernise a whole lot, so I looked into it. Run four tests so far, and we get India mostly westernising I think three times out of four, China two out of four, at least one of the major sub-saharan African states and usually both four times out of four, and around a third to half of the north american natives each time. South american natives struggle, with only one or two, in two times out of four. South east Asia gets significant westernisation two times out of four. In every instance, there's far, far more westernisation than historically occurred - am happy to provide screenies of any examples as required if we want the convo to go on, I've got saves at 1815 for all four tests.
This won't happen until there are actually benefits to not being western. As long as it's better in every way, as it is now, and Paradox continues to balance the MP costs around Western tech nations, as they will most likely continue to do, then there is no meaningful choice. Raising the cost to westernize doesn't create choice, it just makes it more painful.
Fully, fully agree. Nations in the actual period had to make hard choices about this kind of thing, and there were benefits in holding back, something that westernisation doesn't make players do now beyond some very basic stability issues, that are pretty trivial to overcome. Part of the issue is the tech/social ladders - in EU4, every society, other than idea groups and national ideas, is the same. It's all the same flavour. With the ideologies in late-game Civ, there's arguably more variety in nations in Civ V than there is in EU4, and easily as much. Imagine a situation where tech improvements involved choices that stuck with the nation through history, such that the unique combinations of tech and ideas meant each nation was meaningfully different, and that it was plausible to stay non-western (in the time period) and do semi-reasonably, and that modernisation wasn't all the same, but rather different nations modernised in different ways, with different consequences?
What would you put in its place?
Currently, if we're not worried about historical plausibility, I'd just rip it out. It's better than nothing if there is an interest in historical plausibility, but if historical plausibility is the goal of the system, it's got a long way to go.