Maybe you're just unlucky. In my last 2 campaigns Muscowy formed Russia, and in one it destroyed Lithuania, and in the other Mosul is a Russian province.I mean, something that happens in 51% of games, by the AI.
The AI lacks the skill or idea to convert the Ottomans to Coptics or colonize with them, so such an outcome is impossible for the AI. On the other hand, AI Poland certainly does not hesitate to eat Moscow and much of western Russia, every freaking observer game I do.
But, this thread is not about Musvowy. So, maybe you should open a new thread about the subject.