I am under the impression that Venice and the Ottomans are in accordance with each other in some way or other.
Just refer him to Kuba Gibbon's great novel: The Rise and Decline of the Luba Empire
The land of the Arabs and the Holy Cities belong to the Empire and not to Praefectura Aethiopia. The Governor of Aethiopia have been assigned to him the People of the Nile and all land therein.
Interesting! That pretty much invalidates the analysis Frogbite and me have done. But I was right! I guessed this before the first session. I said that England and France could ally, and they'd respectively corner all trade in the Channel and Genoa. Groogy was not convinced. Groogy was wrong.I got the azores after 1500, and a good alliance with France
My take on the strength of these alliances is completely different. Austria and Poland are staying alive by a thin thread of the Turkish Kaiser's whims. Muscovy is free to prance over the entire steppe and Siberia, and before long it will outgrow and overrun them... The moment the bear sniffs any weakness, it charge with all it's might to bite off even just a tiny piece of Polish soil. And the interventionist Groogy won't allow the APLC to break out of this situation. If he intends to keep the status quo, then eventually they will be dependent on him to keep Tragula away.Oh interesting. This game is shaping up into quite a complex web of alliances
Most powerful:
Austria + Poland
Ottomans
France + England
Spain + Burgundy
I wonder how long these alliances will last - Austria + Poland is especially powerful, as is the Ottomans, and if left unchecked they will dominate.
People are playing as if Ottomans will "fall" in power mid/late game, but I don't see that happening, since they are no longer hampered by tech. Instead, they seem to be the leader in institutions ...
Odd ones out:
Muscovy - they will keep losing to Austria + Poland, unless they can find a powerful ally
Venice - no allies yet, very vulnerable target for Austria or Ottomans
Weak but with prospects:
Sweden (in Muscovy orbit)
Portugal (in Ottoman orbit?)
Morocco (???)
Songhai (???)
Ethiopia (huge potential to grow in Africa + Middle East and beyond. If the Ottomans let him)
Dying:
Luba
Given that no one is playing in Asia at all, the massive wealth in India and China will reward the player that goes there with massive points. If the Ottomans take it all, the game is doubly over.
Africa is crazy crowded in this game, despite being so poor. I don't get the player density there (Morocco, Songhai, Luba, Ethiopia). I'm surprised no one selected Japan, Korea, Manchu tribe or some Indian state.
Maybe Luba player can restart into an Asian country, just so we can see if Asia can somehow win a race to an institution and keep up in tech.
Interesting! That pretty much invalidates the analysis Frogbite and me have done. But I was right! I guessed this before the first session. I said that England and France could ally, and they'd respectively corner all trade in the Channel and Genoa. Groogy was not convinced. Groogy was wrong.
Can't wait for the next session. This should be happening twice a week. And please post your idea groups and ideas unlocked next time.
My take on the strength of these alliances is completely different. Austria and Poland are staying alive by a thin thread of the Turkish Kaiser's whims. Muscovy is free to prance over the entire steppe and Siberia, and before long it will outgrow and overrun them... The moment the bear sniffs any weakness, it charge with all it's might to bite off even just a tiny piece of Polish soil. And the interventionist Groogy won't allow the APLC to break out of this situation. If he intends to keep the status quo, then eventually they will be dependent on him to keep Tragula away.
Meanwhile, Austria and the Commonwealth have few choices in terms of expansion. Poland has taken Breslau, so they obviously made a deal to share that land. But there is not much of the Czech clay to go around. All the rest has German culture, which means expansion at a snail's pace or coalitions, which they cannot afford. Ceding Neva to Poland was a victory that only bought time. Even if they win again against Muscovy, unless it's a decisive victory, it's like tilting at windmills. If the APLC doesn't find a final solution before the time runs out, it won't matter. Their only hope is a strong, third ally! Burgundy doesn't count. Now that France and England are allies, it's fate is double sealed, written in stone in capitals.
Austria had a poor start that left them weak. Though Burgundy will still rely on them to allow them to take the north-western German land - if they even stay alive that long - but they're not going to provide any tangible military help against Muscovy or the Ottoman Empire. Venturing so far would leave them open to France who keeps breathing down their burgundy neck. And again, the Hungarian partition has shown that Venice is very opportunistic towards Austria, and the Turks are more than willing to make deals with them. For the APLC danger lurks in every direction.
Sweden is not strong, but if it was to switch sides, I think they could completely reverse the entire situation, allowing APLC a decisive victory against Tragula, deflating the threat on that front, and providing space to grow. However, Groogy would have none of this.
I sense a massive vacuum of power in Central Europe. Mr.Nibbles and Zweden may yet get a chance to shine on the big stage. Currently England and France have the most power when combined.
Just FYI, I edited the post slightly, added a paragraph at the bottom. Gosh, I really want to respond and keep theorising, but it's almost 5 in the morning. Tomorrow. Time to partition the quilt and core the bedAll it does on my end is make Burgundy an even more likely target for partition since Johan won't be counter balancing France on that power bit. Austria is still in a fantastic position overall with being able to make deals with the French. I agree entirely with Poland being in a position that only burgundy beats for worst. Austria agreeing to betray Poland in exchange for a piece of the partition and getting a deal with France and England to get a bit of Burgundy. Austria is still in a strong position. While not a powerhouse like the French, they still pack enough punch to sway a war that on top of their position will make them a good ally for leveraging purposes on getting more land.
That said, Spain and Ottomans are my next picks for likely weak links. With England backing France, France has options for eating Spain. Deals with Venice or Austria or Ottomans for southern Naples land and with England for some of the Spanish land will grow France and put them in a good place diplomatically. Groogy is oddly in one of the strongest and weakest positions as it stands mainly due to Wiz. If he keeps Wiz as a solid ally, then Groogy will be in a very strong spot. If not, then he's in a very weak spot with up to a 3 front war should enough deals be made for Turkish land. I do get the feeling that that decision will be made based of where Wiz's 1650 victory card lands - if on Ottomans that's super bad news for Groogy. That said, even with Wiz on his side currently, if APLC and Russia make a deal against Groogy... My money is on Austria, PLC, and Russia against Ottomans, Ethiopia and maybe Venice if Venice joins the Turk side and not the Austrian side.
Muscovy is allied to Sweden, which is kinda powerful albeit being a bit put back than originally planned.Muscovy - they will keep losing to Austria + Poland, unless they can find a powerful ally
Venice - no allies yet, very vulnerable target for Austria or Ottomans
Morroco and Songhai are guaranteed by Ottoman.Morocco (???)
Songhai (???)
Luba will rise again... It was promisedLuba
Oh interesting. This game is shaping up into quite a complex web of alliances
Africa is crazy crowded in this game, despite being so poor. I don't get the player density there (Morocco, Songhai, Luba, Ethiopia). I'm surprised no one selected Japan, Korea, Manchu tribe or some Indian state.
Poland's biggest enemy is geography. APC could beat anyone around them, but because attacking one would leave them open to others, they are forced to stagnate.All it does on my end is make Burgundy an even more likely target for partition since Johan won't be counter balancing France on that power bit. Austria is still in a fantastic position overall with being able to make deals with the French. I agree entirely with Poland being in a position that only burgundy beats for worst. Austria agreeing to betray Poland in exchange for a piece of the partition and getting a deal with France and England to get a bit of Burgundy. Austria is still in a strong position. While not a powerhouse like the French, they still pack enough punch to sway a war that on top of their position will make them a good ally for leveraging purposes on getting more land.
That said, Spain and Ottomans are my next picks for likely weak links. With England backing France, France has options for eating Spain. Deals with Venice or Austria or Ottomans for southern Naples land and with England for some of the Spanish land will grow France and put them in a good place diplomatically. Groogy is oddly in one of the strongest and weakest positions as it stands mainly due to Wiz. If he keeps Wiz as a solid ally, then Groogy will be in a very strong spot. If not, then he's in a very weak spot with up to a 3 front war should enough deals be made for Turkish land. I do get the feeling that that decision will be made based of where Wiz's 1650 victory card lands - if on Ottomans that's super bad news for Groogy. That said, even with Wiz on his side currently, if APLC and Russia make a deal against Groogy... My money is on Austria, PLC, and Russia against Ottomans, Ethiopia and maybe Venice if Venice joins the Turk side and not the Austrian side.
The land between Constantinople and APC would not allow to the Ottomans to take advantage of the new forts. It's all flat, including Constantinople. I do wonder who would get the penalty should the Ottomans cross the strait directly to Constantinople to attack the army sieging it? Anyways, I already provided my view the APC versus Ottomans idea.In the event of a APLC Russia v Groottoman Wizthiopia war, I'd put my money on GW. The defensive fort change was massive (part of why Muscovy held on as long as it did in the PLC war) and both the Ottomans and Ethiopia are going to be enjoying better troops (way more discipline on their side) than the other side of the alliance. Not to mention, given 50 years, Wiz is going to have beaten several thousands of ducats out of the East and Central Africans and taken 5+ gold provinces, 4+ ivory provinces, and dominance over the Zanzibar node, meaning the OE alliance is going to be able to swarm far more mercs than the ARP side.
Though Groogy is going to have to cut Wiz a good deal in that case, seeing as Wiz wouldn't be at risk of being in harm's way and joining the ARP alliance would net Ethiopia some very nice provinces. Plus, it's not like the Ottomans can invade Ethiopia effectively; the defenses in the mountains, combined with Ethiopia's disgusting amount of fort defense (with loyal nobility and the third national idea, he'd have +105% fort defense in his mountain forts. Mountains being the entire heart of Ethiopia. With defensive ideas and the defensive adviser, he'd have 145% fort defense before policies. Just imagine it, 73.5 day long siege phases), would only end up draining Groogy's manpower and purse while the Europeans look southward.
My money's on Wiz, mostly.
EDIT: did the math again, Coptic Ethiopia can go up to +245% fort defense, with the right circumstances.
103.5 day long siege phases...with scorched earth attrition and mountain supply limit...with the potential to just march forces to defend the fort and get the defensive bonus...
There'd actually be no way to attack Wiz if he just stacked fort defense bonuses like a madman.
It's not just Shadow Kingdom in the north. Now that England and France are buddies, Castile will likely share Burgundian fate, leaving southern Italy free for taking. If we look at the map, we can see that France and Venice are already steadily creeping to take the trade.Italy could heat up now that Shadow Kingdom has fired. Austria, Venice, France and Castile are all likely to expand there, and there could be some complex negotiations/wars over who gets what. Probably Ottomans will get involved there as well (not so much to take land, but influence the outcome of wars).
Ethiopia is in a really safe position for the moment, with only one player nearby. Ottomans can't realistically invade Ethiopia without a big advantage, because Ethiopia can 100% commit to that war whereas Ottomans need to guard against surprise attacks in the Balkans or the colonies. I think a deal will eventually be struck over Antioch and Yerevan (most likely, Yerevan will end up controlled by a Coptic AI OPM, as an enclave in Ottoman territory) - they're not worth much to Ottomans, but a great deal to Ethiopia. Missing the first game doesn't seem to have put Wiz at much of a disadvantage.
Going Merchant Republic as Portugal is dubious in SP, given the weaknesses of that government type, but it could be a smart move in MP. Portugal can do a lot of mutually beneficial deals due to the effects of the goods production bonus. Maybe he will give up some of his home territory to Castile in exchange for important centres of trade elsewhere.
Morocco had a very quiet game - I'm surprised she didn't expand more into Tunis. Is she going for a development-heavy strategy? She'll presumably colonise as well, after negotiating with Ottomans.
England is probably eyeing up the Burgundian Netherlands, possibly with French backing. Having total control of the English Channel node would be extremely valuable. A partition of Burgundy could definitely be on the cards, unless Austria decides to prop him up as a buffer against the French. It'll also be interesting to see how the English-Ottoman colonial rivalry plays out, as they don't have anything to fight over in Europe. If there is a fight in North America, my money's on England as the Ottomans are too widely dispersed.
I dare not think you had specifically our analysis in mind, but thank you nonetheless. We like it tooI love the speculation and analysis of the game.
The Roman Empire shall never fall! The Legacy of Imperator Mehmed II shall not be trampled by the Germanic barbarians!
Haha, typical! I really love how you guys are flexing political muscles even here just to appear even slightly more threateningThe Tzar would react with great hostility to Polish-German aggression in the Balkans or Scandinavia.
It's not just Shadow Kingdom in the north. Now that England and France are buddies, Castile will likely share Burgundian fate, leaving southern Italy free for taking. If we look at the map, we can see that France and Venice are already steadily creeping to take the trade.
Again, I disagree with how safe Ethiopia really is. Ottomans have no immediate threats in Europe, so they could commit, but they wouldn't even have to. At the moment Turks are out of Ethiopian league.
Another interpretation of the map could be that Groogy is trying to get the merchants from each colonial nation to pull trade from India towards the Bosphorus more efficiently. Considering he's not in the position to collect any trade money coming from over the Atlantic, this is a strong possibility.
Overconfidence. And naval invasions of Iberia.Has anyone figured out how Groogy's going to throw away his superior position yet?
Has anyone figured out how Groogy's going to throw away his superior position yet?