Okay, so I ran my first test run to see if I can get Bismark completed in time for her historical commissioning without causing Germany to fail at her historical commitments to fighting the war.
Bismark was officially commissioned the 24th of August of 1940 after sea trials, so she was not ready to fight until that date. Thus, that is the goal of our attempt.
The short version:
I can finish three Bismark class battleships by June of 1940.
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These battleships will have their 38 cm guns.
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She has Battleship armor tier 2, which I think is more than generous. She has two sets of tier 2 secondary batteries (turreted secondaries), which I think is also accurate. (Bismark does not rate DP secondaries as far as I can tell.) She gets a floatplane. She lacks her RADAR at the moment; however, when she is finished, she can get refitted with whatever RADAR you want in around 30-60 days, which still puts her completed on schedule. I just can't research tier 2 RADAR in 1938, and there is no reason to do so. That's why we have refit mechanics.
This version of Bismark uses the Raiding designer. You could use the other one if you preferred its bonuses.
The Long Version (seriously, this is pretty long).
Getting Bismark in the water and ready to fight by August of 1940 is not incredibly difficult, as long as you pay attention to NFs and research boosts. You need Plan Z done in 1936 so you can start the research on Bismark, but you also need to budget the PP for the designer so you can speed up the research of the 1940 heavy ship hull
and the tier 3 heavy battery.
In this run, I did my NFs in kind of a dumb order, so I am in the position of being 1 NF away from Danzig by the historical date of the war, but I already snagged Romania via Align Romania.
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So, if I delayed Align Romania by one NF, I could fire Danzig one NF earlier, and start the war on time.
Note that I still got the Tank Treaty, MR Pact, Research Slot, Herman Goering Werke, and the KDF Wagon (which I have always assumed involves some kind of motor vehicle used by Klingons). I did not do Alliance with Italy (never need to, Italy is already in the Axis), Coal Liquefaction, or Synthetic Rubber. But I can always grab those later.
Research is in decent shape. We are already producing the Panzer IV, I am sitting at 1939 IC techs across the board (I'm not going to start the 1941 ones yet), and I have 1938 computers. We lack RADAR, but I don't need it yet; Bismark isn't finishing until June, and I haven't occupied enough of France to justify building RADAR stations yet. I am researching 1939 ART right now, but that's not related to Bismark. I delayed it so I could build more ART for the attack on Poland and France.
Current research:
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The doctrine that reduces capital ship visibility will be ready well ahead of Bismark's construction.
Other research we have finished:
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You will note that I swapped to Operational Integrity. If I stayed Battlefield Support, I'd be up one more air doctrine.
German production is just fine despite resources going to Bismark.
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I made the decision to swap to Panzer IV now, because my currently existing panzer divisions have their quota of tanks. I can afford the massive hit to production efficiency in exchange for knowing I have some damn fine tanks coming off the factory floor. I am also converting all my old Panzer I's and Czech tanks into Wespes. It's sort of a stage one part of my panzer plan; stage two will begin when I run out of tanks to convert and research the Hummel. Right now, the panzer divisions look like this:
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The remaining light tanks in the template will get swapped out after we take Warsaw. I don't want to do it right now.
I have plenty of manpower and equipment in the field:
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The German army is 2.2 million men strong. It has almost everything it needs except for ART. We are still catching up in that category, but that's because I got over enthusiastic with my 40 width template:
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I have enough land XP to have nice templates, but I really should have held back a little until production caught up. It's not a big deal, though. The German army can crush Poland without too much effort.
The Luftwaffe is also fine.
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I don't care for TACs this time, so I've just been building CAS and fighters. The FW 190 will be finished in 53 days (before 1940 starts), so we will be fine in terms of air superiority.
I could have hit higher numbers, but I don't have a human on Italy with whom I can coordinate trade.
Speaking of trade, this is the status of the German government:
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I have all the design companies I care about (I don't always get the infantry/artillery one). I went War Economy in 1936 using Goebbels. Instead of going Free Trade, I went Export Focus. In SP, going Free Trade can be problematic, so I figured I'd trade a small reduction in overall research and production output in exchange for not losing access to a few hundred steel. In MP, I would have seriously considered going Free Trade, since I know Italy will buy my steel.
Hess will be gone soon, of course, but he has more than paid for himself at this point. I have Rommel and Halder appointed; the other guys will have to wait. I don't need naval staff, since Bismark isn't finished yet. I suppose I could have traded the naval designer for Schorner and his infantry boosts, but it's not really necessary against the Poles. When the war starts, MEFO will go away, and I will have even more PP so I can fill out the general staff.
This test was not the most efficient one I could have run, but it does demonstrate that there is no reason you can't get your Bismark built and commissioned by the historical date and still have fancy tanks and all the resources needed to take out the Poles and France. In fact, someone better than me could probably slip in an extra naval NF and finish 4 Bismarks instead of the 3 I am building.