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By 1800 the Ottomans were desperately undertaking reforms, though by then it was too little too late, and the reforms actually did more harm than good in the long run. Personally I think:

The Ottomans should be able to reclaim Orthadox or even Latin tech group if they manage to centralize and innovate enough following the rapid deterioration of the 18th century. However I also believe that the various independence movements and revolts should be tied in severity to how centralized and innovate you are trying to be. What I'm trying to say really is that there is no good solution to the Sick Man of Europe situation, and you have to pick your poison.

Thusly the Ottomans should rise to extreme innovativeness and centralization by the mid 1500s, slide down a waterslide of decentralizing narrowmindedness until the late 1700s, then desperately try to claw their way back up the innovative/centralized ladder and trigger revolutions all over the place.
 
Garbon said:
I mean the other issue is that not a lot of energy has been devoted to the last few centuries of the game. Many modders simply haven't gotten there yet.

Yeah, I noticed. That contributes to how boring the game becomes after 1700, unless one goes for WC.
 
Mad King James said:
By 1800 the Ottomans were desperately undertaking reforms, though by then it was too little too late, and the reforms actually did more harm than good in the long run. Personally I think:

The Ottomans should be able to reclaim Orthadox or even Latin tech group if they manage to centralize and innovate enough following the rapid deterioration of the 18th century. However I also believe that the various independence movements and revolts should be tied in severity to how centralized and innovate you are trying to be. What I'm trying to say really is that there is no good solution to the Sick Man of Europe situation, and you have to pick your poison.

Thusly the Ottomans should rise to extreme innovativeness and centralization by the mid 1500s, slide down a waterslide of decentralizing narrowmindedness until the late 1700s, then desperately try to claw their way back up the innovative/centralized ladder and trigger revolutions all over the place.
Nice idea. This might make it more fun for a player indeed. I think Orthodox should be max, but that's easy to change after the idea is tested. To start with, I think Innovativeness should get down to around 4 (?) at lowest.

Suggestion:
At start: innovative = 6 (vanilla 5)
Code:
Sheikh-ul-Islam Office instituted	 		 1425 	-1	5
Fate of the Patriarchate				(1453)	+1	6
Sheikh-ul-Islam Office Powers Curtailed			 1605	+1	7	
Lale Devri (The Tulip Age)		 		 1718	+1	8
Patrona Halil Uprising - The End of Lale Devri		 1730  	-2	6
Additional Innovativeness hits could then be among the 18th c independence events.
 
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Let's go with the first one then,

In my tests I have seen that despite moving to muslim technology in 1615, they start to fall behind their first tech level respect to the advanced European countries after around 50-75 years later. There is clearly a lag due to the low cost of those levels, the wealth of the Ottomans and their high innovativeness. In fact the Ottomans missed the great military revolution that took place during the wars of Italy (1498-1530) that lead to a different fortification engineering and the creation of mobile regiments of infantry with great fire power, that completely changed the art of war. This date is past Barbarossa's fleet reform.

It might look counterintuitive that the event can be missed by low innovativeness, but if the Ottos are already at low inno, then there is less need to correct the issue, and also provides a way for human players bend on conquest to avoid it, as a human player as the Ottoman Empire will usually play as very narrowminded for stability issues.

Code:
# Janissary decadence I #
# by Fodoron #
event = {
	id = ????
	random = no
	country = TUR
	name = "Muslims admitted to the Janissary"
	desc = "The janissaries (from Yani Ceri or new army) were the elite of the Ottoman army. They were recruited as children from the Christians, from raid prisoners and through the devshirmeh, a children tax levy imposed on the Christian subjects. Their training was very hard and their quality outstanding. After the first revolt of the janissaries in 1449 they started to acquire power and prestige and some muslims found the way for their sons to be admitted. After the great wars of Selim and Suleyman, muslims started to be admitted openly to increase the size of the Janissary beyond what the devshirmeh could provide. This apparently inocuous measure changed the peculiar status of the Janissary breaking the balance of power in their favor. The slow decadence of the Janisary was only one of the factors in the Ottoman decline, but a fine ruler could steer the Empire even when following history."
	style = 1
	date = { day = 1 month = february year = 1540 }

	action_a ={ # Seed of destruction
		name = "More janissaries are surely better for the country"
		command = { type = land value = -2500 }
		command = { type = naval value = -500 }
		command = { type = domestic which = OFFENSIVE value = -1 }
		command = { type = domestic which = INNOVATIVE value = -1 }
		command = { type = technology which = muslim }
		command = { type = inf which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = sleepevent which = ???? } # Janissary decadence VIIb
	}
	action_b ={ # A way out
		name = "Better keep the elite corps small and under control"
		command = { type = domestic which = OFFENSIVE value = -2 } # small janissary
		command = { type = domestic which = ARISTOCRACY value = 1 }
		command = { type = trigger which = ????? } # punishment for going against the tide
	}
}

# Against the tide #
# by Fodoron #
event = { # triggered by Janissary decadence I
	id = ????
	random = no
	country = TUR
	name = "Muslim uproar for the closure of the Janissary"
	desc = "The decision to close the Janissary to muslims has proven to be wildly impopular. Both religious staments and the society at large are contesting it. The religious tolerance and modern views of the ruling class are not understood by the uneducated masses. If we persist in our reformation ideas we will face stern resistance."
	style = 1

	action_a ={ # Seed of destruction
		name = "We have reconsidered our previous decision"
		command = { type = land value = -2500 }
		command = { type = naval value = -500 }
		command = { type = domestic which = QUALITY value = -1 }
		command = { type = domestic which = INNOVATIVE value = -1 }
		command = { type = technology which = muslim }
		command = { type = inf which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = sleepevent which = ???? } # Janissary decadence VIIb
	}
	action_b ={ # A way out
		name = "The sultan decisions shall not be resisted"
        	command = { type = revoltrisk which = 36 value = 4 }
        	command = { type = stability value = -4 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = sleepevent which = ???? } # Janissary decadence II
		command = { type = sleepevent which = ???? } # Janissary decadence V
		command = { type = sleepevent which = ???? } # Janissary decadence VII
	}
}
 
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|AXiN| said:
Seems a bit arbitrary to me - the Janissaries were good troops for a decent bit past this. And I don't see why there shouldn't be a way out for the human.

Well, there is the intrinsic problem of representing the gradual decline of the Ottoman military by distinct historic events. Clearly the admittance of muslims to the Janissary was an important factor, as it quickly changed their nature and started their transformation into a powerful chaste that often controlled the sultanate.

What it is clear however is that if you want the Ottoman army to start falling behind European armies in the second half of the XVII century you have to start in the second half of the XVI century because there is a significant delay between when they change technology and when you start to see an effect. Already in the last quarter of the XVI century their performance was not what it used to be.

Regarding human players, it is very easy to avoid by being either aristocratic, or narrowminded or both. That's the way most human players usually play big empires anyway. But if most people think a choice is better, I could take out the triggers and add a choice.
 
Maybe add a second choice leading to string reforming the army at great cost? That way a human can't get away scot-free, but has a chance to arrest the decline.
 
The subtle way out for humans through DPs and triggers has been substituted by a more obvious one through option b. Going against the inertia has a bigger punishment as required.
 
So here is the next in the series. The Timar crisis. Although it was the result of the lack of new conquests and the agricultural crisis combined, we will deal only with the military effects in this event, as the agricultural crisis was more widespread.

Code:
# Timar crisis #
# by Fodoron #
event = {
	id = ????
	trigger = {
		AND = {
			owned = { province = 354 data = -1 } # Banat
			owned = { province = 324 data = -1 } # Maros
		}
		NOT = { OR = {
			owned = { province = 326 data = -1 } # Presburg
			owned = { province = 529 data = -1 } # Tabaristan
		} }
	}
	random = no
	country = TUR
	name = "Timar crisis"
	desc = "The lands gained through conquest belonged to the sultan, and they were assigned to soldiers according to the timar system. The timariots could enjoy the land and the peasants for life as their lords, but they reverted to the sultan at their death. The timariots were responsible for production and tax collection, and had to provide also soldiers for the sultan’s army. This system proved a great source of income and an incentive for new conquests. But by 1550 the timar system entered a crisis. The Hungarian lands, were not rich enough to compensate the loss of timars elsewhere. At the same time, a population boom from 12 to 22 million, strained the resources, increasing unemployment and dropping wages, while new taxes were imposed to support the huge military expenses. Timars became less productive, abandoned by the peasants, or converted into hereditary chiftliks. The loss of power by the impoverished Ottoman nobility and their sipahi cavalry left the janissaries as the main force."
	style = 1
	date = { day = 1 month = march year = 1550 }
	offset = 300
	deathdate = { day = 1 month = january year = 1590 }

	action_a ={
		name = "We need constant conquests!"
		command = { type = land value = -2500 }
		command = { type = naval value = -500 }
		command = { type = domestic which = QUALITY value = -1 }
		command = { type = domestic which = INNOVATIVE value = -1 }
	}
}
 
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You're straitjacketing the player again. Seriously, allow for option_b in your events - people want a way out. Plus, the event implies that you've finished your conquests by then when very few humans have.
 
I'd watch trying to get the OE to decline properly, in most of my games underperformance is more of the OE's problem than overperformance. Also, the OE doesn't so much excel in tech as other Muslims underperform in this area. Europeans often underperform in tech as well. The OE should have land techs only a step or so behind Russia in the late 1700s.
 
There is nothing wrong with Fodoron's options for thr Janissery event. You cannot have a true historical bad event (option A ) and then a clearly better/good option B event for humans.

remember, all historical event should be A as this option would most likely be picked by the AI.

By the way if its bad for the OE (or whoever) its bad.
 
|AXiN| said:
You're straitjacketing the player again. Seriously, allow for option_b in your events - people want a way out. Plus, the event implies that you've finished your conquests by then when very few humans have.

Why do they want a way out, its historical and also the AI will pick it. If you want a way out then the B option should be just as bad. How can an event be good, if it was bad for the nation in question.?

With these comments/choices that you want you are dragging the AGCEEP further away from historical reality.
 
Fodoron said:
The subtle way out for humans through DPs and triggers has been substituted by a more obvious one through option b. Going against the inertia has a bigger punishment as required.

Fully agree
 
|AXiN| said:
You're straitjacketing the player again. Seriously, allow for option_b in your events - people want a way out. Plus, the event implies that you've finished your conquests by then when very few humans have.

Sure, I also want a way out when I get a peasantry unhappiness event. I agree with you and ptan54 that a player should be able to fight the Ottoman decline more eficiently that it happened in history, and that is why the option b in the first event will sleep several of the events in the series, making it easier for a human player to counteract the others. But we are talking about a historic decline here that was deep rooted in structural causes, not a wrong turn of the history. When I play Spain I don't mind the economical crisis that much, because it was historic, and because you can recover from it. It does not have an option b and I don't see many people complaining about it. Playing the Ottoman Empire and Spain is already too easy and it has been made a lot easier in AGCEEP with all the freebies. We are talking about DP clicks, that can be counteracted by the player (far less DPs in total than decades), and loss of research, that will not be a problem for an immensely rich Ottoman Empire in the hands of a player that dominates over trade. Do you think it is really such a problem even for a not so experienced player as to cry for an option_b? Just wait to see some of the other events. I think you were talking about pain in a previous post.

I am not trying neither to help nor to harm the Ottoman Empire, I am just trying to represent history through events, and I am firmly convinced that the Ottoman Empire will be a lot more fun to play with these events. After all the game gets terribly boring after 1700. I, for one, will take the historic pathway when I play the Ottomans, as I am sure will be more interesting.

Regarding the timing, the timariot crisis was a progressive problem without a fixed date during the XVI century, but I have already done some testings and you really have to push quite hard at the beginning around 1550 to counteract the big inertia from such a big, technically advanced, rich country if it has to show some decline by 1675. Further testing will be done when we agree on the events. Usually around 1550 the Ottoman AI takes over the Mameluks. The conquests in Europe are more variable as they depend more in successful warfaring. But if the inheritance of Hungary is done properly should not be a problem.
 
zacharym87 said:
I'd watch trying to get the OE to decline properly, in most of my games underperformance is more of the OE's problem than overperformance. Also, the OE doesn't so much excel in tech as other Muslims underperform in this area. Europeans often underperform in tech as well. The OE should have land techs only a step or so behind Russia in the late 1700s.

They do a lot better in the latest versions of AGCEEP. Unless they get unlucky in their alliances and wars, but every country is exposed to that. In any case if there are still problems with the Ottomans achieving their historic expansion, they should be fixed in the period 1419-1520 that is when they did most of their expansion. Having an Ottoman empire expanding in 1750 does not make sense.

The tech performance is tied to their success, but I usually see them with the best techs around 1550. Better than those of France and Austria. I presented data from two games a few posts above, one in 1.36 and the other in 1.37. In a Russian game, in 1750, the Ottoman Empire was at 42/18 Land/Naval, while France was at 30/18 and Austria at 30/19. In a Portugal game, in 1786, the OE was at 53/23, while France was at 53/26, and Austria at 53/24.

I am therefore measuring them against France and Austria, that usually lead the tech race. I suspect Russia has been also pushed up and will also need fixing.