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unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
OCC Casino - for amusement only

As a mod okayed this quite a while back (feel free to shut it down if you have changed your mind), the Out of Character Casino is hereby established. The riches you have in the game or in real-life are no good here, and any "winnings" here are not transferable anywhere else, although if two individuals arrange to transfer a sum of chips from one to the other, for some unknown reason, then that is up to them and not the responsibility of the Casino.

The intended purpose is to be able to wager on future events in or associated with Eutopia 3, like election results. Obviously, running characters, you can influence those events, so think twice before wagering on something completely under the control of one player with that player, although placing such a bet is an indirect way of paying them to do something. I don’t want to waste a lot of time on disputes, so please restrict bets to verifiable events. Also, I don’t want to have to keep track of things forever, so please set an appropriate time limit on when the bet will be resolved. For example, after some chat to agree the terms either one of the bettors would post:
Event: Josephus will be re-elected before Talbott
Time limit: Term XIII elections
True bettor and wager: Weatherman, 5 chips
False bettor and wager: Erc, 10 chips
The other would reply with the word DONE!
If neither is elected again by the Term XIII elections, then be bet is canceled and the house returns the chips.

To start this off, everyone is allocated one thousand chips. You cannot wager chips you might not have, so the house will hold the chips wagered, i.e. after the above wager was agreed, Erc would have 990 chips and Weatherman would have 995. When an event happens (or a time limit is reached) the winner (or either party) should cite the bet posts and the thread showing the event, and the house will update the chip totals.

To get things rolling, there will also be a ‘stock’ market on the upcoming presidential election. You can buy a book of claims on all the candidates for 100 chips. After the election, the claim from a book on the winning candidate is worth 100 chips (all the rest are worthless). The idea is to sell the candidates that won’t get nominated before the nomination phase, and buy those who will, and then during the election buy the winner and sell the loser(s). For example, Craig Ashley could buy a book, simply by posting
I’ll buy a Term XI Presidential campaign candidates book
The house would deduct the chips from Craig’s balance. He could then sell off any names or groups of names by offering them, i.e.,
Cornelius Dank for one chip
then whoever replies first to that post and says the magic word, DONE! would have their chip balance decreased by one (Craig’s would go up by one) have the chance to collect 100 if Cornelius Dank should win. Besides being fun (hopefully), the prices would act as kind of a market-based poll.

Unlike a real casino, the house is not taking any edge (although this could change if it gets too burdensome, but any change won’t apply retroactively), so place your bets. The doors are now open!
 

jacob-Lundgren

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I support the idea but lack any bets to make atm :cool:
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
How about something on whether Cornelius Dank will keep his GA seat for the rest of the term? I reckon the odds would be between 2:1 and 3:1 that he loses his seat.

Or on whether your deputy Craig Ashley will post again before the election filing deadline? Estimated odds between 3:2 either way.
 

unmerged(23409)

LevePalestinaKrossaSionis men
Dec 13, 2003
586
2
I'll put 10 chips that Dank and Moreau-Dumont will be shot at in Term XI, Weather in a firefight, assassination or whatever. Wait, what would be the odds?
 

unmerged(23409)

LevePalestinaKrossaSionis men
Dec 13, 2003
586
2
And i’ll buy a Term XI Presidential campaign candidates book, please.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
The Gonzo said:
And i’ll buy a Term XI Presidential campaign candidates book, please.
Gonzo now has Term XI Presidential campaign candidates book, and is down to 900 chips.

I would bid 18 chips for Loic.

The Gonzo said:
I'll put 10 chips that Dank and Moreau-Dumont will be shot at in Term XI, Weather in a firefight, assassination or whatever. Wait, what would be the odds?
If you weren't playing Moreau-Dumont, then having both of them shot at would be fairly unlikely, especially as it is not sure that Dank will survive term X. However, because you can have Moreau-Dumont shoot at Dank, and his entourage or a security force/law enforcement agency would shoot back, I wouldn't give you any better odds than even money (10 chips to 10 chips). Perhaps some other reader will offer you more attractive odds.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
Actually, with Jake's character Craig Ashley temporarily AWOL, I would increase my bid for Loic to 24 chips. If he posts before you take me up on this, my bid drops back to 18.
 

unmerged(23409)

LevePalestinaKrossaSionis men
Dec 13, 2003
586
2
No, not 24. I'll give you 5 for Langley and 12 for Josephus.

unclebryan said:
If you weren't playing Moreau-Dumont, then having both of them shot at would be fairly unlikely, especially as it is not sure that Dank will survive term X. However, because you can have Moreau-Dumont shoot at Dank, and his entourage or a security force/law enforcement agency would shoot back, I wouldn't give you any better odds than even money (10 chips to 10 chips). Perhaps some other reader will offer you more attractive odds.

Why would I get my Character to shoot at someone for imaginary money? Wouldn't it be better to do it by proxy like everyone does? I'll have to pass on evens.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
So I can make two sided markets, I will buy a book of Term XI Presidential Candidates as well, so I am down to 900 chips as well.

I assume you meant that you were willing to sell Sell Josephus for 12 and Langley for 5. If you were willing to buy at those prices, I would sell you both.

Josephus has to resign soon to run in this term. If he did, the voters would consider it attempt to make an end run around the constitution, and his party is somewhat in disarray at the moment, so I don't rate him that highly at the moment. I would buy Josephus for 3 chips and sell him for 9. For Langley, I would make the market 1 - 3, meaning I would pay one chip or sell for three chips.

As to why would anyone one do anything for imaginary money, aren't we speculating on imaginary events? Does two levels of imaginary make it even less real? I don't know. I will leave that question to the philosophers.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
Market Prices for candidates certificates, in chips. Term XI Presidential certificates on winner will be redeemed for 100 chips, all others become worthless.
Code:
Character	Bid	Offer
Admiral Tulp	   5	10
Cornelius Dank	   1	 3
Jake Langley	   1	 3
John O'Floinn	  10    15
Josephus 	   3	 8
Lamont Rashaad	   5	10
Loic de Fourgéres 25	45
Moreau-Dumont	   2	 5
Olsen      	   2	 5
PG Talbott	   4	 8
Others	          10    20

Prices are good for one transaction, new prices will be posted after a deal.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
Event: The detective investigating the murders in St. Esprit, the one who said on the phone to President Thibaud not to get angry at anyone is attending the CAFTA signing disguised as President's Thibaud's father and made the remark in French against CAFTA which President Thibaud mistranslated.
Time Limit: Term XII elections (should be revealed well before then)
True Bettor: to be determined, up to 10 chips
False Bettor: UncleBryan, five times the stake wagered

Offer becomes invalid after next murder, attempted murder, or accusation by the detective is posted by Hajji Giray.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
Code:
Newslink dates	days between issues (excluding supplements and corrections)
3/30/2005	 26 
3/4/2005	 11 
2/21/2005	 14 
2/7/2005	 20 
1/18/2005	 14 
1/4/2005	 18 
12/17/2004	 25 
11/22/2004	  7 
11/15/2004	 17 
10/29/2004	 15 
10/14/2004	 15 
9/29/2004	 13 
9/16/2004	 10 
9/6/2004	  6 
8/31/2004	
Average	         15 	4/14/2005
Max	         26 	4/25/2005

Anyone want to start a pool on the date and time of the next NEWSLINK post (not marked as a correction or supplement)? It could happen any time now. Every guess risks one chip. Whoever is closest wins the pot. You are allowed multiple entries. Entries after the post has occured will not count. To start things off I will say April 17, 2005 at 20:00

All times are GMT -5.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
Presidential coupons (winner worth 100)
Candidate bid - ask
Loic 79 - 80
Roger Forbes 20 - 21

These are really tight prices, just to stimulate some activity. Any takers?
 

jacob-Lundgren

GM/Brutal Werewolf Leader
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oh sure i will throw 80 down on loic
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
jacob-Lundgren said:
oh sure i will throw 80 down on loic
Agreed.

You have spent 80 of your 1000 stake and now have 920. You will get 100 if Loic is elected President this term.

New prices:

Presidential coupons (winner worth 100)
Candidate bid - ask
Loic 80 - 85
Roger Forbes 15 - 20

Anybody else should feel free to make prices of their own as well.
 

unmerged(23409)

LevePalestinaKrossaSionis men
Dec 13, 2003
586
2
I'll have Loic on 80.
 

unmerged(33865)

Eutopian Chess Champ
Sep 2, 2004
64
0
The Gonzo said:
I'll have Loic on 80.
Sorry I missed your post, but after JL bought a Loic coupon at 80, I made the price 80 bid, 85 offer, so no one was offering a Loic coupon at 80 when you posted, or took you up on your deal after the post but before the results. I assume that your saying "have" meant you wanted to buy, not sell, so I don't think you have a transaction. Thus you still had the complete book, and are back up to 1,000 chips.

JL cashes in his Loic coupon for 100 and now as 1,020 chips.

New balances:
JL: 1,020
Everyone else: 1,000
House: down 20