Epilogue (Pt. 2): The Second World War
Even as peace settled over Asia, war was expanding across Europe. Germany had conquered Poland and Denmark while Britain and France yet stood strong. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union had attacked Finland, eventually gaining concessions from the small country after an extremely bloody war over the winter of 1939-40. Early 1940 had been very quiet, but things began to heat up in the late spring.
The Germans launched their attack on the west on May 9, quickly occupying Luxembourg while also attacking Belgium and the Netherlands. The Dutch quickly surrendered as their defensive positions were overrun and the Luftwaffe bombed Rotterdam, inspiring fear of further destruction. The government withdrew from the mainland, vowing to continue resistance from the colonies in Indonesia.
The most shocking part of the attack was that the panzer divisions advanced through the Ardennes forest, terrain the French had thought totally unsuitable to tank warfare. The French proved slow to react, allowing the Germans to break through. The French high command's morale was shattered, causing many of them to give up, abandoning their soldiers in Belgium to be surrounded. By May 20, the Germans had reached the English Channel, trapping the best Allied units.
Breakout attempts were eventually made, but they failed to escape, coming extremely close in several cases. Significant numbers of French forces as well as the BEF were evacuated to Britain, but this left a gaping hole in the French lines after Belgium and several trapped French armies surrendered. The French fought a stubborn defense, but they were slowly pushed back under relentless Luftwaffe attacks. By early June, the French government was falling apart and Marshal Petain asked for an armistice. The resulting peace saw Germany occupy northern and western France, leaving the French State in the south, centered on the town of Vichy. Italy gained Nice and a few other territories, but was denied anything greater.
This left Britain alone, at war with both Germany and Italy. A massive bombing campaign started against Britain while the Italians launched an invasion of Egypt, but they did not advance very far into the country, seemingly content to build up fortifications. The British were reeling from the fall of France, but they had not been dealt a crushing blow and could recover, given enough time.
Chiang took advantage of the French collapse by bullying the French State to give the ROC basing rights and allow troop movement, 'to act as security against Japanese aggression.' This was followed by an influx of VNQDD (
Note: Vietnamese version of the KMT) party members into Vietnam. Significant numbers of the VNQDD had been in China either serving in the NRA or receiving training from the KMT. The French initially resisted, but the Chinese forces crossed the border anyways, eventually bringing the French to the negotiating table. The Republic of Indochina (ROI) was soon proclaimed, but this government was essentially a puppet of China and had significantly less independence than the ROK.
Flag of the newly formed Republic of Indochina
This aggressive action alienated much of the western world against China, causing an end to all arm shipments from France, Britain, and the United States. The U.S. threatened significant embargoes if China took anymore provocative actions, forcing Chiang to stop his expansion. A significant amount of NRA soldiers were tied up in Indochina, helping to suppress Communist nationalists. The Vietnamese Communists were fairly disorganized due to the fall of the CCP and the deaths of most of the high level leaders. However, they had popular nationalist sentiment on their side, proving a thorn in the side of the KMT and ROI security apparatus.
Japan had considered taking advantage of Germany's victory over France, but they were roiled by internal strife. Konoe was soon assassinated by a junior IJN officer as retribution for his peace treaty with China. This was but the prelude for a larger revolt among radical IJN officers, reminiscent of the February 26 Incident of 1936. This time, the rebels stormed the Imperial Palace, determined to secure the Emperor, unlike the previous revolt. They captured him that evening, but Hirohito would not speak to them further after he commanded them to surrender immediately. Loyal units soon surrounded the Imperial Palace, placing the rebels under siege. A standoff ensued though, as neither side wished to risk harm to the Emperor.
The incident ended after five days when Hirohito persuaded most of the enlisted men to surrender, promising they would not be harshly punished. Unable to resist the direct command of their Emperor, they turned on the rebel leaders and ended the revolt. The key conspirators were executed while the low-level players were given prison sentences based on their level of control in the revolt.
In addition to the naval officers' revolt, there was widespread unrest due to the peace with China. Returning prisoner's of war were harassed by extreme nationalists for their 'cowardice and dishonor', horrifying Japanese people that had family, friends, and neighbors that had surrendered in China. Popular sentiment was shifting leftward and strongly against any further wars. The Emperor had been troubled by the drift to war in earlier years, but he had been too weak to do anything about them. However, he now felt popular sentiment was on his side while the Army factions had been humbled by their failings in China. The IJN revolt did much to discredit the Navy despite the fact that most were uninvolved with the coup attempt. Finally, his imprisonment by the Navy officer's had a dramatic impact on his opinion of the military; while the officers' intent is debatable, the Emperor felt his life had been in danger. All of this spurred dramatic action, termed the Showa Restoration by historians.
The Emperor took a much more active role in Japan's government, spearheading a change to the constitution. The goal was to remove the military's outsized influence on the country and restore some form of civilian government with the Emperor at its head. By exploiting the military's intense loyalty to him Hirohito managed to push through many changes to the constitution. Perhaps the most important was that the Army and Navy ministers in the cabinet could no longer cause a government to fall by resigning, reducing their influence on the country. Rather than forming a constitutional monarchy, Hirohito centralized the Emperor's role in governing, satisfying the military's demand for strong rule while also satisfying the common people's desire for change.
The Japanese government's foreign policy was also changed during the Showa Restoration, taking a less aggressive tone while still aiming to project strength. Rather than forcibly securing resources from either the mainland or southeast Asia, trade with the United States and Soviet Union was increased. Finished goods were then sold to China, Korea, Indochina, and Thailand where they competed with lower-quality products made by inefficiently run KMT factories. The military remained strong however and secured a substantial buildup of Taiwan's defenses while the IJN secured funding to maintain a fleet substantially larger than any possible rivals. This was combined with strict neutrality in WWII, leading to a larger foreign policy known as 'armed neutrality'.
After the fall of France, a series of dramatic campaigns occurred in the Mediterranean. Italy lost an entire army in Egypt and was nearly pushed out of North Africa before Germany intervened. This then led to a series of back and forth battles stretching from Tripoli to Egypt, tying down both British and Italian forces. Germany launched their own campaigns, namely the Battle of Britain and the Battle for the Atlantic. Both were aimed at forcing Britain from the war, with the first aiming to shatter their morale while the second aimed to starve them out.
British fighters on-course to intercept German bombers
The Battle for Britain captured the public's attention, but the Battle for the Atlantic would prove to be the decisive campaign. While the German bombing terrified the populace, it actually hardened their resolve and solidly turned the British public against peace with Germany. The exploits of their brave pilots also restored morale and pride after the humiliation of retreat from France. In the Atlantic, German submarines ranged far and wide from newly captured French ports, threatening British shipping from the Americas and Africa.
German submarine U-154, prowling in search of British shipping
President Roosevelt had publicly swore that American aid was available to the victims of aggression after Italy declared war on the Allies, signifying that American entry was only a matter of time (assuming FDR won reelection). Roosevelt was determined to aid Britain as much as possible without overly upsetting the isolationists in the U.S., buying time to prepare military industry and sway the populace toward intervention. The Germans initially tried to avoid provoking the U.S. by not torpedoing their ships, but this became more difficult over time. Roosevelt soon declared a 'Closed Zone' wherein belligerent ships would not be allowed within 300 miles of the U.S. coasts. However, this was explicitly aimed against German submarines, and the Zone would expand further out as American strength grew.
By August, the USN was collaborating with the Royal Navy and American forces occupied Greenland, denying Germany another port. This was followed by a deal wherein the British were given destroyers in exchange for bases. After securing reelection, Roosevelt announced Lend Lease, wherein the United States would directly arm the British in their war against the Axis. America had become a belligerent in all but name, frustrating the Germans greatly. In April, a U.S. destroyer attacked a German sub that had torpedoed a Dutch ship, marking the first clash between the USN and Kriegsmarine. American ships were soon escorting British convoys, scouting for German subs, and had pushed the 'Closed Zone' all the way to Iceland. Several more incidents occurred through the summer of 1941, and Germany began targeting U.S. ships intentionally.
All of this news was disrupted by news of Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941. After securing their flank by invading Yugoslavia and rescuing the Italian invasion of Greece, the Germans had turned east to Hitler's true goal. The German army made dramatic gains and captured millions of Soviet soldiers, overwhelming the unprepared Red Army in the opening phase of the war. However, the onset of winter stiffened Soviet resistance and proved it would not be a short war as Hitler had predicted.
The Eastern Front devolved into a meat grinder as neither side seemed capable of achieving absolute victory. However, the Battle for the Atlantic was increasingly turning against Germany as Roosevelt instituted a 'Shoot on Sight' order against German subs on Sep. 11, 1941. An incident between the USS
Greer and
U-652 had precipitated this, causing a state of war to exist between the two countries in all but name. All restraint ended, and U.S. escorts were soon battling German submarines wherever they were encountered.
It is uncertain how long this state of affairs could have continued for, but Hitler eventually settled the matter by declaring war on the United States on Mar. 3, 1942. The Eastern Front was deteriorating despite his best efforts while the British were stubbornly holding on in North Africa, leading to something of a deterioration in the Fuhrer's state of mind. This impetuous declaration of war came when he received news an entire wolf pack had been sunk by the USN, causing him to fly into a rage. Hitler reportedly demanded revenge on the Americans, eventually leading him to decide war was the best solution. He would come to regret this decision.
By the end of 1942, Germany's position had become untenable. The German-Italian army had been halted at El-Alamein, and the British had broken the Axis' back soon after, sending that theater into collapse. This was combined with Allied landings across French territory in North Africa, leaving Axis forces in a pincer and doomed to encirclement. Meanwhile, the Soviets were growing stronger and encircled the German 6th Army in Stalingrad. Hitler ordered them to hold out as rescue was coming, but their fate seemed sealed at this point.
1943 marked the beginning of the war's shift in the Allies favor as Britain and the U.S. cleared out North Africa and invaded Italy, causing the fascist regime to collapse. Meanwhile, the Soviets made substantial gains and blunted a German offensive at Kursk, marking the end of German superiority in the east. An invasion of France was becoming increasingly likely, especially as American forces were known to be building up in England. Germany's only hope was to fortify their territory so well that the western Allies negotiated a peace, allowing the Germans to focus on the Soviets. This was not very likely, but the Germans had done a good job shoring up Italy and halting any significant Allied gains after the initial surrender.
The dreaded Allied landing finally came in June of 1944, forcing the Germans to defend three active fronts in addition to troops necessary to garrison all their other conquered territories. The Germans were too slow to react, and the Allies secured their beaches, allowing them to bring in significant forces. It took some time, but Allied forces eventually broke out and liberated France, threatening the German homeland. The true death knell of Nazi Germany came as the Soviets launched Operation Bagration, perhaps the most decisive operation of the entire war. Almost the entirety of Germany's Army Group Center was destroyed, breaking the front line and forcing the Germans all the way back to Poland.
As both fronts collapsed, Hitler became increasingly erratic and urged the Germans to greater and greater sacrifices. A rational leader would have negotiated at this point, but Hitler was not that leader. Instead, Germany was forced to bear invasions from both the east and west, leaving the country shattered, scarred by war, and split among the victors. During the battle of Berlin against the Soviets, Hitler committed suicide on April 4, 1945, leaving his successors to formally surrender. The Soviets received the bulk of eastern Europe and formed several puppet states, determined to create a buffer against invasion from the west. Meanwhile, the United States and Britain restored France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway's legitimate governments while working to eradicate fascism in both Germany and Italy. After six years of brutal war, the world was once again at peace.
In Asia, Japan and China had spent this peace rebuilding their shattered countries with varying levels of success. Japan's 'armed neutrality' appeared to have worked well as Japanese industry greatly profited from the Soviets' need for military goods while no more soldiers were lost. Relations had improved with Britain and the United States due to the less aggressive foreign policy, allowing raw imports to continue to grow unimpeded. The IJN had even received new carriers to counter the nascent ROCN, leaving all factions relatively satisfied. Germany's disastrous defeat shattered the reputation of those that had favored joining the Axis alliance although some ultra-nationalists continued to claim Konoe had committed a stab-in-the-back and betrayed his country. However, these became increasingly fringe positions as the majority was satisfied with growing wealth and international prestige.
China's post-war period was much more tumultuous as all the social unrest that had been suppressed by war was unleashed. Chiang had thought the destruction of the Communists would end internal dissent, but that was totally untrue. The KMT still faced dissent due to intellectuals opposed to its authoritarianism, former warlords, corruption, ultra-nationalists, and especially peasants desiring land reform. Some efforts were made to alleviate this, such as capping taxes on peasants to 37% (
Note: It's pretty incredible this was considered a good reform OTL, but that's how oppressive peasant taxes were in China). Perhaps the most successful reform was confiscating land, redistributing it to the peasants, and then compensating the former landowners with shares in former Japanese companies in Manchuria and Korea (
Note: This is based on what was done in Taiwan OTL). This was a useful reform, but there were far more peasants than there were companies to sell, leading to a very uneven improvement. Coastal China, the heart of KMT authority, saw a significant improvement in living conditions, but rural areas saw no change and continued to live like they had for centuries.
The economy was growing, but was incredibly uneven. Unrest would continue as some groups suffered under KMT policies while others thrived, leaving China in a mess (
Note: Not unlike many third world countries in OTL). However, two insurgencies dominated Chiang's attention in the immediate post-war era. The first, in Indochina, was already briefly discussed and would eventually be stamped out by the end of the 1940s. The Communists fought a stubborn campaign, mobilizing the people to their cause and hurting the ROI several times. However, they were totally cut off from outside help, and the NRA slowly forced them into remote areas, reminiscent of the CCP. The armed revolt would eventually be snuffed out, although left-wing agitation would continue for years, together with a more general nationalist sentiment. The second insurgency was in Xinjiang, where the Soviet Union supplied rebels with arms, funds, and safe haven. The goal was to have the region break from the KMT and form a buffer against China. This insurgency would plague China for years, severely harming the relations between China and the Soviet Union.
Foreign policy also proved complicated for China. The ROCN's expansion plans fell through when the western Allies cut off military support while the ROCAF rushed to produce copies of various American, French, and German aircraft.The formal goal of the NRA remained the acquisition of Taiwan, but it was becoming increasingly clear this could not be achieved anytime soon. However, relations with the west soon improved after they invaded French North Africa, making China's actions in Indochina slightly less controversial. The ROC soon found partners willing to help in naval construction, causing a panicked naval expansion in Japan. Tensions would remain high over Taiwan, but it soon became clear China would not be launching an invasion anytime soon.
The ROC had risen to the world stage and asserted itself as a country, but there were new troubles to confront the nation. Economic growth dominated the public's attention while insurgency in Xinjiang threatened to tear China apart once more. Relations with Japan remained poor due to grievances from the Second Sino-Japanese War and the desire for Taiwan. However, the world seemed to be entering a new era of peace, filling people everywhere with hope...
Note: Well, I think that's it! It's been fun to write, and I hope this is a decent conclusion to this AAR! Feel free to share your thoughts!
I hope nobody minds my focus on the Atlantic, but I really do think U.S. entry into the war was inevitable, even if Japan was removed. I kept things in Europe largely historical although some dates shifted since I didn't see any reason things would go dramatically differently. I think Asia is fairly balanced as it would be historically, and I personally find the idea of Imperial Japan surviving WWII really fascinating, so I found a way to make that work which (maybe) is plausible.
I think people that argue KMT China would become a democracy if they had won the Civil War in OTL are wrong, but this China avoided the worst effects of OTL WWII and aren't in quite as bad of a situation. They're basically an authoritarian, right-wing dictatorship that struggles to get out of poverty, but also isn't a complete disaster. Fairly common in the post-war era, and I don't think it's too much of a stretch.
I really appreciate everyone that has followed along with this work! I don't know if I would have kept this going without everyone's support! Thanks for being very welcoming and helpful. I will write another HOI3 AAR at some point, but I'm aiming to do only one at a time (for now). If you enjoyed my writing, I currently have an AAR on the HOI4 forum, playing the Fallout mod, Old World Blues: Savages of Utah - A White Legs Tribe AAR. It's obviously quite a bit different in style and heavily focused on the narrative, but I think it's some of my best writing so far. Knowledge of Fallout is not necessary since everything is explained as it comes up. I appreciate anyone who checks it out!
