One Heart, One Soul, One Mind, One Goal: A Republic of China HPP AAR

[RustyHunter]

Part 35: The Reunification Campaigns ( Mar. 1940 )

On March 6, the NRA was in position to simultaneously attack Guangxi and Yunnan in a quick campaign to take their major cities and topple the political power base behind the warlords. The major cities of Bose, Guilin, and Nanning were likely necessary to cause the fall of Guangxi. Fortunately, each of these cities was on the border with the central government's territory and likely to fall quickly. Nanning, in the south, appeared to be the most difficult fight because a significant number of militias had fortified the city for quite some time.

Yunnan seemed likely to be a much easier fight, but the harsh terrain was likely to slow any advance to a crawl. Only the capital of Kunming and the city of Dali were expected to be necessary to decapitate Long's regime, but it was predicted it would take some time to reach these cities, buried several provinces deep in mountains and rivers.

Attacks immediately began in Guangxi, with the most notable being two corps of KMT infantry attacking ten to fifteen militia divisions holed up in Nanning. The other battles were only small offensives against one or two militia divisions. Interestingly, most of Guangxi's army was extremely under strength. Chiang suspected the division's officers were reporting their divisions as full strength and then pocketing the pay of the soldiers that did not actually exist. The NRA had struggled for quite some time to eradicate this corrupt practice, and it had only ever been finished thanks to several executions of complacent division commanders. (Note: In OTL, the KMT never solved this problem since they lost most of their government apparatus in the retreat west, allowing generals to pretty much do what they wanted.)

However, numbers had a weight of their own, and Chiang's men moved very cautiously in their attack on Nanning. Guilin quickly fell after a few days, but the warlords slipped an armored division into Bose, severely delaying the attack there. Chiang's men were able to easily crush the Italian tankettes thanks to years of fighting actual tanks fielded by Japan, but the attack was still stalled at a critical moment.

(Note: I'm not quite sure why Guangxi gets to start with a tank division consisting of one LARM, two MOT. As far as I can tell, the actual ROC owned more tanks than Guangxi ever did but still not enough to qualify for a tank division in game. There isn't as much information on who owned how many trucks, but I still find it hard to believe Guangxi owned a significant amount. This is one minor issue with HPP: Guangxi's starting army seems overly strong for no reason I know of. They also have several divisions that are four INF, one SUP while the rest of China is stuck with binary divisions. If anyone has some information I don't, I'd greatly appreciate it!)

NRA soldiers inspecting a knocked-out CV-33 tankette in Guangxi Clique service. (Note: I know these are Japanese soldiers, but we will pretend they are Chinese for this)​

Yunnan went much better as only a single militia division guarding the route to Kunming was brushed aside in a matter of hours. The rest of the first week was spent marching across the inhospitable terrain, and the mud of early spring did not help matters either (Note: I timed this offensive very poorly). Men and horses often got stuck in thick mud, slowing most divisions' advances to a crawl. The trucks of the 200th Mot. Div. assisting the attack on Guangxi were especially vulnerable to the effects of mud, often wholly unable to advance until the mud dried out somewhat. Chiang was growing frustrated as the weather seemed a more effective enemy than the warlords.

However, Chiang's frustration turned to fury when he was roused from his sleep on Mar. 15 to terrible news: a massive Japanese army was attempting to land on the Shandong peninsula, in an attack named Operation Ichi-Go. At least ten divisions were trying to gain a beachhead, including mountaineers and elite SNLF marines. All the KMT had to oppose them was a single corps of militia, spread across the entire peninsula.

The Japanese chose to land on a relatively sparse portion of the coast between the major ports of Qingdao and Weihai. The Chinese militias guarding Weihai and Qingdao were ordered to rush to the landing zone and stall as long as possible. Meanwhile, KMT reserves were being mustered to throw the landing back into the sea before the Japanese could break out.

Unfortunately, Chiang had very few divisions near the landing zone, with the best formation being the rehabilitated Communist infantry corps stationed just south of Beijing. Otherwise, a corps of militia that had been preparing to become paratroopers was stationed near Nanjing. Finally, two of Hu Zongnan's corps of militia were rushed east from the former Communist capital of Yan'an. Unfortunately, it would take all of these units a week or more to arrive in Shandong plus whatever time it took them to reorganize.

The elite core of the Chinese military was currently stuck in the south, battling the warlords for dominance. Chiang was furious, but he had to admit the Japanese had picked the perfect time and place to attack. They must have known Chiang's armies were miles away and unable to respond, while the Shandong peninsula would make a very defensible perimeter for the numerically inferior IJA. It was also close to the KMT heartlands and threatened the major cities all along the coast of China.

SNLF soldiers storming a beach against light KMT resistance.​

Chiang resolved to finish Guangxi and then turn Qiu's elite army north, leaving the handful of forces near Shandong on their own for quite some time. In the following days, the militias arrived in the Japanese landing zone but withered under massed fire from Japanese battleships. The ROCAF flew their bombers against the Japanese landing but had little effect since they had never trained for anti-naval operations.

Only two pieces of good news greeted Chiang from Mar. 15 - 20. First, Bose had finally fallen to KMT forces, leaving only Nanning. Second, it had been learned that a traitor was behind the audacious Japanese landing in Shandong. Gen. Han Fuqu, former warlord and now governor of Shandong, had provided the Japanese with maps, of the beaches and had diverted NRA patrols away from the landing site in exchange for a massive bribe. Unfortunately for him, one of Dai's agents had infiltrated his headquarters and caught on to the plot, eventually bringing him to justice in Chongqing. After a brief 'interview' with Dai's interrogators, the general confessed all, and was reportedly executed by Hu Zongnan, Chiang's loyal general.

Notorious traitor Han Fuqu as a (relatively) young man in the late 1920s​

(Note: Han Fuqu was historically accused of surrendering his province to the Japanese. For whatever reason he retreated west with the KMT after the fall of his province and was eventually executed for treachery, possibly personally by Hu. This had nothing to do with in-game events, but I thought it was a nice chance for TTL to echo OTL.)

After Mar. 20, KMT soldiers continued to advance unopposed against Yunnan, brushing aside only token resistance as they neared Kunming. Dali was totally unguarded, but the mud and narrow mountain passes meant KMT forces were unlikely to arrive until sometime in April. Meanwhile, the Battle of Nanning was finally nearing its close after KMT forces had surrounded the city on three sides, increasing pressure on the defenders. The battle did not end until Mar. 25, leaving over 10,000 Guangxi soldiers as casualties for only 1,500 KMT soldiers. (Note: I've never seen such a high casualty rate for one battle! I almost feel sorry for them!)

With this victory, Guangxi surrendered on Mar. 27, and most of their units were integrated into the NRA. Unfortunately, the armored division had been significantly depleted and melted away rather than join the NRA. Chiang then ordered Qiu to turn his army north, boarding any train they could find. Even with top priority, it would still take them quite some time to arrive in Shandong due to China's 'limited' railroad network.

Operation Ichi-Go continued slowly but surely, securing a beachhead, followed by the port of Weihai. The KMT militias made another stand at Qingdao, delaying Japan's capture of that port for several days. By the end of March, Japan had captured the entirety of the peninsula, but KMT forces were beginning to form a solid front against them. The rehabilitated Communists and Hu's militias had arrived and dug in, sealing off the peninsula until Qiu and his men could arrive.

A KMT machinegun team desperately holding Qingdao against overwhelming Japanese forces.​

Overall, March had been a mixed month for Chiang. Guangxi was brought back into the fold, and Yunnan was only a matter of time. However, Japan had returned to the mainland, showing they were not beaten and still a fearsome foe. It appeared the situation had been stabilized, but Chiang could not be certain the Japanese did not have other landings in mind...

Note: And here ends the gameplay. Japan really did land a huge army in Shandong while I was battling the warlords, impressing me greatly! Unfortunately for them, I don't think they were aggressive enough and would probably be doomed to destruction once my infantry showed up. I might allow Japan to be a bit smarter in the epilogue, but we shall see...

 

[jak7139]

This was indeed the perfect moment for Japan to strike.

You said the landing had roughly 10 divisions in it. Do you remember how much of Japan's total army size this is?

 

[SSmith]

I do recall you hinted at some kind of Japanese landing! It sounds like the AI actually did a pretty decent job there at the operational level, though of course the very notion of committing fresh forces against a country that's just dismantled their entire empire in mainland Asia was extremely foolhardy. The AI will I think sometimes support an active land front with an amphibious landing but I don't generally see Japan doing that in a big way against China - although in one recent test run I did see a large and very effective AI landing against Shanghai at a time when the main front was somewhere in Shandong province.

I'm afraid I can't answer your question about the Guangxi Clique's starting forces. I do know that one of the mod's creators had a special interest in the Chinese theatre but I can't be sure who was responsible for that particular OOB and whether it is accurate or not.

 

[El Pip]

If that landing had happened say 18 months earlier then the Sino-Japanese War would have gone very differently, almost a shame it didn't as it would have added a bit more tension to that part of the campaign.

The rationalisation for why Japan fights on is obvious, they still hold a decisive advantage at sea and in the air, are under zero threat from China in the short term at least and the recent history of China (and indeed the corruption of Chiang and his cronies) suggests the ROC will struggle to stay together for any reasonable period. To explain away such a small landing force is tricky but perhaps logistics and lack of landing craft limited them (doesn't explain the lack of any follow up waves, and it's not like the IJA ever really cared about logistics...)

What is inexplicable is the lack of aggression. If there was one thing the IJA was not short on it was aggression or ambitious plans, so I hope they do get smarter in the epilogue, or at least more in character. To beat a challenging opponent is one thing, to defeat a cardboard cut out quite another.

 

[RustyHunter]

You said the landing had roughly 10 divisions in it. Do you remember how much of Japan's total army size this is?

I'm not entirely sure since their divisions that were expeditionary forces to Manchukuo were shattered (reduced to a few hundred men and teleported to the capital), so I'd say maybe a third of the IJA at most. I didn't tag over and check, but it's probably a decent chunk of the army.

It sounds like the AI actually did a pretty decent job there at the operational level, though of course the very notion of committing fresh forces against a country that's just dismantled their entire empire in mainland Asia was extremely foolhardy. The AI will I think sometimes support an active land front with an amphibious landing but I don't generally see Japan doing that in a big way against China - although in one recent test run I did see a large and very effective AI landing against Shanghai at a time when the main front was somewhere in Shandong province.

I was quite impressed, especially considering it wasn't a suicide attack of a couple divisions like the AI seems to love doing. I could see a well timed landing collapsing AI China's front, easing a Japanese victory.

I'm afraid I can't answer your question about the Guangxi Clique's starting forces. I do know that one of the mod's creators had a special interest in the Chinese theatre but I can't be sure who was responsible for that particular OOB and whether it is accurate or not.

Well, that's OK to hear. I suspect any OOB for the warlords would be impossible to make perfect since there's a lack of detailed information on them.

If that landing had happened say 18 months earlier then the Sino-Japanese War would have gone very differently, almost a shame it didn't as it would have added a bit more tension to that part of the campaign.

That could have been devastating and bought them time in Manchuria. Otherwise, if they had done a landing during the initial invasion, they could have forced me to abandon the Huang He and taken most of the coast at some point. The AI did OK, but not anything spectacular.

The rationalisation for why Japan fights on is obvious, they still hold a decisive advantage at sea and in the air, are under zero threat from China in the short term at least and the recent history of China (and indeed the corruption of Chiang and his cronies) suggests the ROC will struggle to stay together for any reasonable period. To explain away such a small landing force is tricky but perhaps logistics and lack of landing craft limited them (doesn't explain the lack of any follow up waves, and it's not like the IJA ever really cared about logistics...)

It's hard to see what Japan's end goal would be though. They've suffered several humiliating defeats at the hands of China and no longer have an army capable of conquering anything long term. I think this operation is their last hurrah before negotiating, so I named it Ichi-Go because the OTL Ichi-Go was also a last ditch attempt to win the war in China. I'll try to be balanced in the epilogue, but Japan has not performed well so far.

What is inexplicable is the lack of aggression. If there was one thing the IJA was not short on it was aggression or ambitious plans, so I hope they do get smarter in the epilogue, or at least more in character. To beat a challenging opponent is one thing, to defeat a cardboard cut out quite another.

I think that is more of a HOI3 AI problem; I've noticed the AI can be very passive when it doesn't think it can win, and sometimes for no reason at all. I haven't figured out too much in the epilogue, but I can guarantee the IJA will be more aggressive.

 

[SSmith]

I was quite impressed, especially considering it wasn't a suicide attack of a couple divisions like the AI seems to love doing. I could see a well timed landing collapsing AI China's front, easing a Japanese victory.

Otherwise, if they had done a landing during the initial invasion, they could have forced me to abandon the Huang He and taken most of the coast at some point.

Yes, that could have made things much more interesting for you. Thinking back to the way the AI performed in the Semper Fi expansion landings along the Chinese coast seemed to be the norm rather than the exception.

It's hard to see what Japan's end goal would be though. They've suffered several humiliating defeats at the hands of China and no longer have an army capable of conquering anything long term. I think this operation is their last hurrah before negotiating

In the AI's defence you were in the middle of a little local difficulty with the warlords, so the timing was perfect, but it was a very much 'a last throw of the dice' for Japan.

 

[RustyHunter]

Yes, that could have made things much more interesting for you. Thinking back to the way the AI performed in the Semper Fi expansion landings along the Chinese coast seemed to be the norm rather than the exception.

That is interesting! I wonder if giving Japan a province near Shanghai to simulate their territory in the city would be useful? It obviously wouldn't stop a player on China, but it might convince the Japanese AI to open a second front.

In the AI's defence you were in the middle of a little local difficulty with the warlords, so the timing was perfect, but it was a very much 'a last throw of the dice' for Japan.

I think their best hope would be to incite panic and force negotiations? I'm not entirely sure how to write Japan's role in the epilogue since they were quite stubborn and China has no way of hurting the Home Islands.

 

[SSmith]

That is interesting! I wonder if giving Japan a province near Shanghai to simulate their territory in the city would be useful? It obviously wouldn't stop a player on China, but it might convince the Japanese AI to open a second front.

That could be an interesting experiment. As long as they didn't lose that province early I imagine they would feed in more forces but it's also likely it would be ringed by Chinese units.

I think their best hope would be to incite panic and force negotiations? I'm not entirely sure how to write Japan's role in the epilogue since they were quite stubborn and China has no way of hurting the Home Islands.

Maybe cooler heads would prevail after this latest adventure ends in failure? As it surely will.

 

[RustyHunter]

That could be an interesting experiment. As long as they didn't lose that province early I imagine they would feed in more forces but it's also likely it would be ringed by Chinese units.

I know HOI2 DH had Shanghai under Japanese control which is perhaps a bit dramatic, but I suspect it was meant to encourage that behavior. Most of the Chinese units are locked until Japan attacks though, giving the Japanese AI a chance to expand their control fairly quickly. I could see a Shanghai bridgehead just being a disaster for Japan as they feed in enough units to be a significant loss, but not enough to actually gain ground.

Maybe cooler heads would prevail after this latest adventure ends in failure? As it surely will.

That's what I'm thinking since it should demonstrate China won't collapse anytime soon and force a more rational consideration of the facts on the ground.

 

[El Pip]

That's what I'm thinking since it should demonstrate China won't collapse anytime soon and force a more rational consideration of the facts on the ground.

An interesting 'story' move would be a Kempeitai-inspired uprising in Korea. As the locals find out they have just exchanged Japanese overlords for Chinese ones it shouldn't take too much to incite a revolt, it's not like China-Korean relations were particularly pleasant prior to Japan's interest in the peninsula. If Japan pours some reinforcement into the main landing and the IJN and SNLF start making trouble along the coast, well then things start looking a bit tricky. Sure Japan lacks the strength to do much in land, but they should certainly be able to make a great deal of trouble along the coast where most of the industry, commerce and wealth are located.

It would be nowhere near enough to win them the war, but I think it would certainly enough to ensure that Japan retains many valuable commercial concessions in China and some sort of deal where Korea is released from being a Chinese puppet and the Japanese firms retain at least some of their investments there. Given the rest of the Great Powers also have concessions and treaties with China they would like Chiang to carry on honouring I can see a great deal of pressure being applied to Chiang to accept such a "reasonable" peace. Not to mention inevitable defections by less committed generals and troops who see no need in dying now that they have "won" and don't want to carry on fighting just so the Soongs can get even richer.

 

[RustyHunter]

An interesting 'story' move would be a Kempeitai-inspired uprising in Korea. As the locals find out they have just exchanged Japanese overlords for Chinese ones it shouldn't take too much to incite a revolt, it's not like China-Korean relations were particularly pleasant prior to Japan's interest in the peninsula. If Japan pours some reinforcement into the main landing and the IJN and SNLF start making trouble along the coast, well then things start looking a bit tricky. Sure Japan lacks the strength to do much in land, but they should certainly be able to make a great deal of trouble along the coast where most of the industry, commerce and wealth are located.

That is a quite interesting idea, and I'll certainly consider it. Japan will definitely be smarter once I take the reins, but I'm not sure quite sure how. Only thing is, I was trying to make Korea somewhat independent despite being a puppet in game.

It would be nowhere near enough to win them the war, but I think it would certainly enough to ensure that Japan retains many valuable commercial concessions in China and some sort of deal where Korea is released from being a Chinese puppet and the Japanese firms retain at least some of their investments there. Given the rest of the Great Powers also have concessions and treaties with China they would like Chiang to carry on honouring I can see a great deal of pressure being applied to Chiang to accept such a "reasonable" peace. Not to mention inevitable defections by less committed generals and troops who see no need in dying now that they have "won" and don't want to carry on fighting just so the Soongs can get even richer.

That's what I think the most reasonable result will be. China will win quite a bit thanks to regaining Manchuria, but Japan will certainly retain some privileges.

 

[Bullfilter]

inspecting a knocked-out CV-33 tankette

Ah, the good old CV-33: Turkey still has a brigade of them going in 1944 in my game!

terrible news: a massive Japanese army was attempting to land on the Shandong peninsula

he had to admit the Japanese had picked the perfect time and place to attack

Well done the AI, within its limits.

Han Fuqu was historically accused of surrendering his province to the Japanese. For whatever reason he retreated west with the KMT after the fall of his province and was eventually executed for treachery, possibly personally by Hu. This had nothing to do with in-game events, but I thought it was a nice chance for TTL to echo OTL.

An interesting insertion into the story and very, well, plausible.

The Japanese will of course be thrown back into the sea with losses they can’t afford.

 

[RustyHunter]

Ah, the good old CV-33: Turkey still has a brigade of them going in 1944 in my game!

I had forgotten you still had them running around! They're pretty cute, and they did get sold all over, so I've always had a bit of a soft spot for them.

An interesting insertion into the story and very, well, plausible.

I'm glad you enjoyed it! It was one of those moments where HOI3 accidentally aligns pretty well with history, and I always enjoy them.

The Japanese will of course be thrown back into the sea with losses they can’t afford.

I would think so. Unfortunately, my game ended like April 1 or 2, so it'll never officially happen. I plan to write up an epilogue soon detailing how WWII shakes out in Asia and the rest of the world, producing a somewhat satisfying end to this AAR. Thanks for following along, and I've appreciated your comments!

 

[RustyHunter]

Epilogue (Pt. 1): End of the War in Asia

As Chiang's armies rushed north to crush the Japanese landing in Shandong, it soon became clear those had only been phase one of Op. Ichi-Go. A second landing was made in Korea, centered around the port of Pusan. Japanese propaganda called upon the Korean people to 'throw off their Chinese oppressors and their running-dog puppet government, returning to the safe embrace of their Emperor'. This was not as effective as the Japanese had hoped, but it was certainly more effective than most Koreans or Chinese would admit after the war.

Japanese soldiers advancing in southern Korea. Korean collaborators eased their advance, often guiding them around isolated ROC and ROK garrisons.​

Thousands of Koreans answered the call, seeing Japanese dominance as their chance to regain the power and privilege they held in the colonial government. They assisted the Japanese landing, serving as guides, sabotaging Chinese rail lines, and otherwise hindering the Chinese response. A handful rejoined the IJA, picking up where they had left off. However, the ROC and ROK had effectively turned large swathes of the population against the Japanese by emphasizing their various crimes, including forced labor, attempts to eradicate Korean culture, and war crimes across all of Asia. Some critics would complain that the ROC and ROK governments were not exactly innocent of many of the crimes they accused Japan of, but the tactic proved effective in turning a majority against Japan, especially as China's propaganda press was finely tuned by this point in the war.

This allowed the Japanese to secure the bulk of southern Korea, but they proved unable to push on to Seoul. The Chinese garrisons eventually reformed and fought a stubborn withdrawal, buying time for veteran NRA infantry divisions to leave the Soviet border and head south. A coherent line was formed, and gains were measured in thousands of yards, reminiscent of the Great War. The Japanese had deployed the bulk of their military at this point, leaving the Home Islands and overseas territories with only a skeleton garrison, limiting their strategic options going forward.

As Korea devolved into stalemate, the Shandong peninsula began to heat up. The initial commander of the landing had proven too hesitant, so he was soon replaced by Hideki Tojo, an avowed militarist. He immediately stopped all work on fortifications and ordered his men to go on the offensive all across the front. These attacks met mixed success, gaining ground against KMT militias but stalled by actual infantry. This led to another breakout in the south, threatening the entire Chinese line that had formed.

Most notably, the corps of former CCP soldiers held their initial positions, not allowing the Japanese to push north. Instead, the Japanese were funneled south as they batted aside the weak militias of Hu Zongnan's 3. Army and Zhang Zizhong's 1. Army. IJN support had proven decisive in this advance, as the fearsome battleship barrages often shattered entire Chinese units. However, Qiu's 4. Army was approaching the front and threatened to break the Japanese offensive before it made decisive gains. It would still take them several weeks to join the battle, but the Japanese were about to become outnumbered by Chiang's battle-hardened veterans.

Meanwhile, Chiang's forces finally occupied Kunming, eliminating Long Yun's support and deposing him as governor of Yunnan. Chiang appointed a loyal ally in his stead, bringing the province firmly under central government control. British shipments along the Burma Road resumed and were greatly appreciated due to the renewed Japanese invasion. This then allowed Chiang to turn the 2. Army north as well, although these units were tasked with securing the coasts against any more Japanese landings. Chiang did not know the Japanese were nearly spent, and he had become increasingly paranoid that further landings could come at any moment.

By July, Qiu's men were beginning to arrive on the Shandong front, stiffening the Chinese defenders and blunting Tojo's offensive along the coast. Qiu knew his army and the former Communists were the only reliable units, so he did not dare perform a risky encirclement. Instead, his infantry made determined assaults, supported by the untrustworthy militias, slowly grinding down the outnumbered Japanese. After a month of battle, Tojo's army had been pushed back from Rizhao and was now approaching Qingdao, essentially the starting position of its offensives.

Two soldiers admire a katana they had captured during the counteroffensive in Shandong.​

During the battles on the mainland, a political battle raged in Japan. The Japanese military was dissatisfied with the prime minister, Mitsumasa Yonai, since he did not support alignment with Nazi Germany. This led to a crisis in the government, seeing Yonai removed and replaced by Fumimaro Konoe. His primary goal was to end the war in China, seeing how Tojo's dramatic offensive and the stalled landings in Korea proved victory was impossible. Secret negotiations were started between an emissary of Chiang's government and Konoe, eventually culminating in a peace agreement.

Konoe addressing the House of Peers, informing them the Emperor had assented to peace with China.​

The agreement left neither side happy, but it ended three years of bloodshed and chaos, restoring a fragile peace to the Far East. Japan confirmed China's conquest of their territories in mainland China while also recognizing the ROK as the legitimate government of Korea. In return, Chiang's government recognized Taiwan was an integral part of Japan and allowed Japan favorable trade rights in Korea. Japan had been insistent on maintaining their various economic rights within China, but Chiang could not budge on that matter. The Chinese people had become intensely anti-Japanese in the course of the war, and they would not stomach China's resumption of subservience to Japan. In the end, Konoe recognized the futility and withdrew his government's objection, satisfied with the gains in Korea.

Perhaps the most controversial decision saw Korea divided into a northern Chinese economic zone and a southern Japanese economic zone. The ROK resented their lack of involvement in the negotiations and felt they had been sacrificed by Chiang to secure peace. This was not of immediate concern, but tensions rose in Korea as the details of the peace became known. The agreement also left both sides unsatisfied as fervent Chinese nationalists were outraged that Chiang had signed away Taiwan. In Japan, a certain class of ultra-nationalist arose that insisted Tojo could have won the war if he had been properly supported and not betrayed by his government. The general became something of a martyr and proved troublesome in Japanese politics for years to come.

Immediately following the announcement of the peace treaty, the warlords of Xibei San Ma swore oaths of loyalty to Chiang, effectively bringing their regime back into the ROC. This left only Tibet and Xinjiang outside Chiang's grasp, and the remainder of the '40s were spent securing these regions; the investment was very low as the Mas carried the war in Xinjiang while Tibet collapsed within a year as a single NRA corps attacked. This allowed Chiang to turn his focus to reconstruction and economic growth, something the Chinese people yearned for.

Japan had a much worse crisis following the peace treaty as their entire system seemed to be collapsing around them. The IJA had proven incompetent and shattered the people's faith in militarism, turning most of the important government ministers against the idea. However, it had also shattered Japan's decades-long quest for resources, leaving the country uncertain where to turn. Perhaps the most devastating issue was the return of hundreds of thousands of Japanese soldiers that had been captured in China. Bushido held that these men were cowardly traitors, unfit for respect and honor. However, most Japanese families had a father, son, brother, or close neighbor that had been a prisoner, making their treatment a dilemma. The Japanese people were forced to choose between their national idea and their familial love, dividing the country for years to come.

Japanese prisoners returning home after a stay in a north-China prison camp.​

Overall, the peace agreement marked the end of an era in East Asia. Japan had been humbled and forced to reckon with a true defeat and all the social unrest that came with it. Meanwhile, China was elevated to the status of a world power, ending the century of humiliation they had suffered at the hands of foreigners. As Chiang's foreign problems were finally solved, it seemed domestic concerns were about to dominate his country, leading to an internal focus and an isolation from the wider world. The country had changed significantly in the course of its war with Japan, and the wider world would have to change in response...

Note: I decided to pull a Bullfilter and turn a single update into two or three! This covers the end of the war in Asia, and I think the next will cover the 'traditional' WWII and how China changed it. The final (?) part will then turn to developments in China through the rest of the '40s, setting the stage for the post-war era and hopefully forming a satisfying conclusion to this AAR. Feel free to share your thoughts, and I hope this was a relatively believable take on the war's end.

 

[Wraith11B]

Great post! I like the idea that the defeat roils Japan, as well it should. Not to mention that their defeat costs the IJA so much, which probably leads to the IJN being the clear victor in the Government. With their need for resources unsated, but China and Russia closed to them, do the Japanese resort again to the Strike South clique? I'd imagine so. They would be even more interested in getting SE Asia into the Empire.

Or, the internal strife causes something of a revolution and a strengthening of the government against the adventures of the military.

As to the divisions that had been overrun: I always thought that Japan should have two tactics that are only available to them: Banzai, which causes intense damage to both attacker and defender, and the evolution into a sort of Bushido-enforced fight to the death function (think Okinawa and Iwo Jima) where they can get crazy high defensiveness stats and cause significant losses to attackers. Or a way to model that attrition for an attacker that can get super high (to reflect how long it took the Americans to pacify those islands.

 

[jak7139]

This covers the end of the war in Asia, and I think the next will cover the 'traditional' WWII and how China changed it. The final (?) part will then turn to developments in China through the rest of the '40s, setting the stage for the post-war era and hopefully forming a satisfying conclusion to this AAR. Feel free to share your thoughts, and I hope this was a relatively believable take on the war's end.

I think splitting the chapter up into three parts is a good idea. It will make the conclusion feel well rounded out.

The peace deal was also believable, though I don't think Chiang would have given up Taiwan after all the preparations (navy and paratroopers) he invested into to retake it. But you did mention his paranoia of further Japanese landings, and him not knowing how spent Japan's army was, so maybe this is just a case of "Hindsight 2020".

Great job on this AAR and am looking forward to the last two chapters!

 

[Surt]

Only two invasions, I seem to remember that there was an invasion every 3rd or 6th month when I last played China, you young warlords don't know how luck you are!

 

[El Pip]

The peace deal was also believable, though I don't think Chiang would have given up Taiwan after all the preparations (navy and paratroopers) he invested into to retake it. But you did mention his paranoia of further Japanese landings, and him not knowing how spent Japan's army was, so maybe this is just a case of "Hindsight 2020".

On the flip side I can't see the Japanese signing up to that peace treaty either, particularly not Konoe who was OTL leader of the incredibly named "League of Diet Members Supporting the Prosecution of the Holy War" - he really got radicalised after the start of the war, even if he had been a bit more of a dove prior to Marco Polo. There is a feeling of Japan fighting with one hand behind their back, the IJN still absent along with seemingly no Japanese air power. I understand the reasoning (if they were deployed then China wouldn't win) but a bit obvious by their absence, certainly enough to put some meat onto the bones of the 'stabbed in the back' legend.

Overall it is a peace treaty any other power might have signed under the circumstances, but there will be an "Incident" or two in Japan over this because it is not a treaty Imperial Japan would sign.

Looking ahead I am hoping for the amusing outcome post-war. A post-coup Japan ends up IJN dominated who don't strike South but focus on building up strength. To that end South Korea experiences massive growth under Japan as they need the extra industry and have worked out a partner is more productive than an oppressed colony. Meanwhile the Soongs and Chiang get their hooks into the North and it just spirals into a pit of corruption, opium and decay as dodgy contracts and favours to friends become the norm. Japan coming to be seen as the 'good' power compared to the 'exploitative colonial' Chinese would be a nice irony and definitely at the more likely end of the spectrum.

 

[RustyHunter]

Great post! I like the idea that the defeat roils Japan, as well it should. Not to mention that their defeat costs the IJA so much, which probably leads to the IJN being the clear victor in the Government. With their need for resources unsated, but China and Russia closed to them, do the Japanese resort again to the Strike South clique? I'd imagine so. They would be even more interested in getting SE Asia into the Empire.

I think that's a fairly realistic path. The only issue is they don't have any reason to fight the United States. In TTL there have been no embargoes, and there definitely won't be since the war in China is over. They can continue to get most of their resources from the US together with their concessions in Korea. I'm not sure whether they would be that passive or not, so I'll have to think about how I want this to work out.

Or, the internal strife causes something of a revolution and a strengthening of the government against the adventures of the military.

That could be an interesting idea as well, and there would certainly be a lot of social unrest after years of war that has left the country worse off. The IJN can at least claim that they were not involved in the fiasco, but that might not be enough to save the future of militarism. I'm not sure how likely that would be though.

As to the divisions that had been overrun: I always thought that Japan should have two tactics that are only available to them: Banzai, which causes intense damage to both attacker and defender, and the evolution into a sort of Bushido-enforced fight to the death function (think Okinawa and Iwo Jima) where they can get crazy high defensiveness stats and cause significant losses to attackers. Or a way to model that attrition for an attacker that can get super high (to reflect how long it took the Americans to pacify those islands.

I think that'd be a really cool feature! I suppose it could boost Japan's soft attack while decreasing toughness to simulate higher casualties inflicted and sustained.

The peace deal was also believable, though I don't think Chiang would have given up Taiwan after all the preparations (navy and paratroopers) he invested into to retake it. But you did mention his paranoia of further Japanese landings, and him not knowing how spent Japan's army was, so maybe this is just a case of "Hindsight 2020".

This is probably a case of Chiang being too clear-sighted, but there's no way the KMT would be able to realistically capture Taiwan in the '40s. Their navy is hilariously bad and paratroopers are an untested concept. It's safer to make peace and avoid a possibly disastrous invasion. It also sows the seeds for future conflict and ensures neither side is totally happy with the victory.

If my save game was still around, I totally would have fought out the invasion of Taiwan since it would be a very cool campaign.

Only two invasions, I seem to remember that there was an invasion every 3rd or 6th month when I last played China, you young warlords don't know how luck you are!

It was actually only one as I invented the Korean invasion for story purposes. I was quite lucky to avoid lots of landings though, so I can't complain!

On the flip side I can't see the Japanese signing up to that peace treaty either, particularly not Konoe who was OTL leader of the incredibly named "League of Diet Members Supporting the Prosecution of the Holy War" - he really got radicalised after the start of the war, even if he had been a bit more of a dove prior to Marco Polo.

I thought Konoe was briefly interested in peace in 1940? Perhaps it was someone else in his government because Japan periodically considered negotiating a peace, with varying levels of seriousness of course.

There is a feeling of Japan fighting with one hand behind their back, the IJN still absent along with seemingly no Japanese air power. I understand the reasoning (if they were deployed then China wouldn't win) but a bit obvious by their absence, certainly enough to put some meat onto the bones of the 'stabbed in the back' legend.

Japanese air power has been around throughout the war, I just don't play with air casualty reports to reduce the number of popups in game. The air power was only decisive in the early set piece battles along the Huang He Line or bombing Chinese industry, never really proving decisive otherwise. I decided to keep that for the epilogue since it would be weird for the Japanese airforce to suddenly devastate Chinese armies after years of not.

The IJN is also limited in what they can do because there's only a few SNLF divisions and their ships are obviously useless once the battle goes inland. I did have them show up in the epilogue to provide fire support, but they can't carry the entire war on their own.

BTW, who are you referring to with "if they were deployed then China wouldn't win"?

Overall it is a peace treaty any other power might have signed under the circumstances, but there will be an "Incident" or two in Japan over this because it is not a treaty Imperial Japan would sign.

The problem is they were well and truly beaten on land and didn't stand a chance of retaking anything on the mainland long term, so what is there to fight for? The IJN being amazing doesn't matter if they want to retake Korea and Manchuria. I know it's not the most likely peace treaty that would be signed, but there's also nothing to be gained in China, and I would think a series of humiliating defeats would emphasize that.

It's also a bit different from OTL because Chiang isn't aiming for unconditional surrender and tearing apart the Imperial state like the Allies in OTL. That makes peace a bit more palatable.

It's obviously a bit of a stretch to write a China that wins the Second Sino-Japanese War, but I hope this is as realistic as possible. I think this peace is a reasonable extrapolation from game events, but it's not realistic to OTL obviously. I hope this doesn't detract from the rest of the epilogue for you.

Looking ahead I am hoping for the amusing outcome post-war. A post-coup Japan ends up IJN dominated who don't strike South but focus on building up strength. To that end South Korea experiences massive growth under Japan as they need the extra industry and have worked out a partner is more productive than an oppressed colony. Meanwhile the Soongs and Chiang get their hooks into the North and it just spirals into a pit of corruption, opium and decay as dodgy contracts and favours to friends become the norm. Japan coming to be seen as the 'good' power compared to the 'exploitative colonial' Chinese would be a nice irony and definitely at the more likely end of the spectrum.

I did want to create something of a 'stab in the back' myth, since it seems like Japan has to either double down on militarism or accept the change in circumstances and adapt. An IJN coup of some sort is extremely likely since the IJA is incredibly tainted at this point.

I don't think Japan would ever be seen as the 'good' power, just because there is going to be a lot of bitterness about the colonial era and various crimes. I think the Japanese will be able to run better businesses though, making the KMT look bad and complicating Korea's foreign relations since it turns out neither neighbor is 'good'.

China is obviously ascendant at this moment, but much of their gains are built on a foundation of sand, so I think Japan can make something of a comeback in the next decade. There's no way Japan is returning to the mainland, but they are still fundamentally strong while Chiang has a number of unresolved issues that had been sidelined due to war.

 

[Bullfilter]

Note: I decided to pull a Bullfilter and turn a single update into two or three!

Always a wise move when there’s so much material that to squeeze it all in would be a choking hazard! I have been known to tread that line, though

the next will cover the 'traditional' WWII and how China changed it.

Will that be hypothetical or did you/wil you play it through ‘off camera’?

Feel free to share your thoughts, and I hope this was a relatively believable take on the war's end.

Really well done mate, you’ve reasonably achieved the aims you set out for China at the start and to take things further now might be overkill. Especially when you have two other AARs going!

Or, the internal strife causes something of a revolution and a strengthening of the government against the adventures of the military.

This would be plausible.

With their need for resources unsated, but China and Russia closed to them, do the Japanese resort again to the Strike South clique? I'd imagine so. They would be even more interested in getting SE Asia into the Empire.

Or just trade for them, now China is off the table and if a more moderate government is in charge and they never went to war with rage Allies? Perhaps this would be a better war to lose than WW2 and Japan could leave the Axis before it become toxic for them.

It was actually only one as I invented the Korean invasion for story purposes. I was quite lucky to avoid lots of landings though, so I can't complain!

Interesting.