Very ominous words spoken in St. Louis. A militant Red America could prove very destabilising. Looking forward to the next update.
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OMG, Reed became stalin and Trotzky in one person! (also, is there any mention of Trotzky in KR? was he shot along Lenin or something?)
Even Stalin and Hitler thought themselves the good guys, I guess Reed is now KR's new Stalin.
Because the world is oh so stable to begin with
But no, i'm more worried about the CSA in the International. They won't be a major power for 2-4 years but could add some serious mid-late game punch to the Reds. The PSA is looking formidable though so i can't imagine the CSA, even with French Help, just rolling them over. There will be a hard fight.Pretty sure he's dead but i'm not sure on the exact story. I know Hitler and Stalin are dead.
Hey, i just had to go through the chapter and fix up Reed's name because in my fatigued state last night i got it wrong
And sorry Doc, must be painful to see the reds hijacked but authoritarians yet again.
Reed obviously thinks he's the good guy. He's also (in a way) got a point about the future of the CSA. Giving power back to the Southerners immediately would be a recipe for fragmentation and the state isn't really going to be secure without French help.
I'd say the French leadership are the real scary Stalin-esque figures this time around. Here's the thing though...When there are three totalist and one near totalist regimes on the planet...who gets to be called THE Stalin? : P
If I can live with Stalinism and all the other failure 'Marxian Doctrines' I can live with Totalists ruining my Kaiserreich. The Memory of real Leftism lives within the hearts of the Moderate Syndies!
[video=youtube;0GkTiBae6NU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GkTiBae6NU[/video]
Posting a Lenin song on a Russian Empire AAR, Uwot m8?
EDIT: Yea, yea I know the French Leninists are put as 'Totalists' but that is probably really true actually...Huh.
There are some moderate syndies left, mostly in India and Scandanavia atm.
I'll be putting up an update tonight if all goes well.
I'm also editing a chapter put together by Deus Eversor which i'll put up at some point as well. I cant stress enough how happy i am that people are enjoying the AAR enough to send me stuff for it.
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Remember that KR Syndicalists are more moderate than OTL Communists, so I think Totalists are more like Leninists than Stalinists.
About Trotsky:
http://editthis.info/kaiserreich/Lev_Davidovich_Trotsky
About Trotsky:
http://editthis.info/kaiserreich/Lev_Davidovich_Trotsky
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I never knew that...I assumed they were more along the lines of Stalinites.
Chapter 58: Case Plan Blue-7
Saint Petersburg
Saint Petersburg
Warwick eased the leather suitcase down onto his lamp-lit desk. He could still hear the distant toning of a Russian waltz echoing down the corridors. It had been an incredible night, celebrating the liberation of Mongolia. Nicholas had been stunned in his seat with the Cossack dance troop performed with their flurry of kicks and jumps. Even Warwick himself had flinched, though Anastasia had simply laughed.
It was fine hospitality, Vladimir once again standing in for his father as the Emperor shook off the last stages of his illness, but it had been a long night and Warwick's curiosity demanded he take at least one look at the new case plans before he retired.
The news from America demanded it.
The last he had heard from Sir Winston was that the Combined Syndicates had closed in around the last Union held port of Savanah. Refugees were streaming out by the tens of thousands on anything that would float, the Russians were there in good numbers, as was the Royal Navy. Warwick had half a desire to catch the first ship back across the Atlantic and join the Marines that would be in action keeping order during the evacuation but he knew it would be long over by the time he returned. This American General, Patton, had performed military miracle after military miracle. His force of twelve thousand men had broken 20,000 two weeks ago, and held its own against four times that number since then, always in position to block a thrust and hold back the tide. Now, however, three full French divisions were due to go into action, and that would likely be the end of that. Fortified with refugees, there were now millions in Savanah and apparently supplies were thin on the ground. At best a few hundred thousand might be evacuated before it fell.
The case of planning documents before him had been carried in, chained to an Officer's wrist, a sign of significant security . To be honest, the Royal Marine General was still at a loss as to why he had been inducted into the planning echelons of the leadership both so suddenly and while overseas. It was a tremendous security risk, transporting such documents, hence the escort. His guess, as thumbed the combination locks into the correct tend digit sequence, was that there were amphibious operations involved and they'd finally deigned to bring in a specialist.
That....or his Majesty had made yet another recommendation.
Sweet notes of song floated from the bedroom, Anastasia still reveling in the familiar Russian tunes. She had come alive since they came back. Even if Saint Petersberrg didn't have quite the modern feel of Canada, it was home in a way that Warwick could understand every time he thought of England. England seemed so far away all these years, the British Isles stripped away by the reds on that insane night... He realised that was part of why he rejoiced so much in the Romanov return.
If they could go home, and make Russia whole again. Perhaps one day he could do the same with Britain.
That was what he had expected to find as he opened the case and perused Case Plan Blue Seven, the one governing Canadian Strategic intentions. He expected a plan which leveraged the new Russian Alliance, potentially a detente with Germany as well, in order to facilitate the near impossible task of launching a return to the continent.
Instead, as he flicked to the first page, emblazoned with the imposing top secret stamp, his brain struggled to comprehend what his eyes were taking in.
Singapore....Suez?
None of it made any sense, none of this was achievable, the Russians would never go along with it or the French would take advantage of it... He flicked forward to the European theater of operations, hoping there he might find some answer to explain it all.
Instead, what he found chilled his blood like the ice and snow of Archangel and never manged to do.
Case Plan Blue-7 said:General Considerations RE: European Theater of Operations.
It is, at present, clear that no amphibious landing can be effected against the British Isles without first establishing appropriate staging ports on the continent itself. While the naval forces available to us at present eclipse those of the revolutionaries, it should be noted that we lack an appropriate counter to the significant anti-naval air assets posessed by their fleet air arm, nor a way to break into any of the major fortified beaches or ports. Assaulting the island would require proximity sufficient to enable a protracted air campaign to erode the island's air defenses which are lacking in most respects for fighter aircraft.
In turn, an amphibious attack, against either the German or Totalist block is unfeasible in light of their respective naval capabilities and the size of landing force that would be required to overcome their armies.
The inevitable conclusion is that the position of the Empire must be strengthened if any prospect of a landing is to become possible. Further, any and all fighting in the European or Mediterranean theater may not be fought by sea. Until such a time as either Gibraltar or Suez is open to our fleets, there is little prospect of even temporary naval supremacy being achieved on even the local level.
The broad strategy of His Majesty's Government must thus be to regard the German block, with its land connection to Russia and extensive overseas posessions, as the primary objective and the Russian army our primary fighting force. Recomendations for operations by theater are listed here:
Europe:
It is expected that in the event of a state of war rising between Russia and the German Empire, that the red powers will declare war on Germany in an effort to achieve a victory that would otherwise beyond their means. Fighting on a single front, history has proven the German army all but invincible. Given the opportunity to initiate a campaign by fighting a war on two fronts, the French will be glad to avail themselves of an opportunity to profit from a Russian Engagement.
The Russian land campaign against Germany may be seen to serve an essentially attritional purpose. Its goal is to engage the maximum number of German forces while, through the application of steadily mounting casualties, weakening the will of the German Government and people to fight a war that essentially aims only to preserve its Colonial possessions. Russia must not be allowed to evince any territorial claims against Germany, and if they are raised unilaterally, they must be bargained away in order to secure peace with Germany once other objectives are secured. In capability we judge the modern Russian Army and state industry to be capable of maintaining a campaign at an acceptable level of intensity for not less than five years.
The Russian air-force faces a greater disparity as against its German equivalent. Russian aircraft are, as a whole, largely obsolete and Government plans for a new generation are at least another two years from full fruition. None the less, we expect the Russians to remain competitive given the likely involvement of French, Italian and Spanish fliers on the Syndicalist side.
The threat remains that the Russian leadership, with their close connections to Germany, may be unwilling to commence operations on these terms. Recommendations on how to avoid this are included below. We further recommend that this plan not be circulated to the Russians in advance so as to avoid the risk of their premature mobilisation warning the Germans as to our intentions.
Mediterranean & Africa:
The Primary objective in this region is the Suez Cannal, key to re-opening the naval link between the Empire and French Government in North Africa. Such an assault will require surprise assaults against the German African Possessions in North West Africa to deny them the opportunity or temptation to reinforce their garrissons. It must be assumed that a long, general war against MittelAfrica will have to be fought in order to secure the chain of naval bases lining the African continent. In order to maintain operational momentum, amphibious operations are proposed to speed up the process and secure forward ports. The neutralization of Madagascar is to be left to the Royal Navy.
Ultimately, the plan must be to occupy the German dominated sectors of the continent and secure a naval lane between India and North Africa.
Asia:
Primary objective in this region is Singapore, to be taken by Australasian troops in the initial stages of the operation. As the base of the German Asian squadrons, its capture is critical to the maintenance of naval superiority in the Region. The economic implications of the ports capture also can not be overstated.
Secondary objectives include German Chinese possessions and all German naval bases capable of interdicting the free transfer of Australasian troops and vessels towards the Indian and European theaters of operation.
It should be noted that the RAN is presently regarded as superior to the German East Asian squadron and should be capable of engaging it on better than even terms. Concern must be given to the state of Japan however. Japan, despite its recent defeat in Formosa, remains a dynamic naval power with regional ambitions.
It is know that Germany is pressuring the Imperial Chinese government to come to an accommodation with Manchuria to end the Japanese occupation of Korea. Such efforts must be supplemented by independent aid to Manchuria in order to further weaken the Japanese position.
Note Regarding the Initiation of Hostilities:
The involvement of the Russian army is utterly critical to any successful war against Germany. Her forces, though old, are somewhat familiar with German tactics and outnumber all those troops which can be assembled by the Empire, Dominions and our French allies combined. None the less, it must be considered that, despite our Alliance, the Russians may not be keen to initiate another attrition war against Germany from which they could gain little.
To this end, we would recommend the intelligence services remain utterly sensitive to the diplomatic dimension of this situation in order to maintain the alliance until T=0. After combat is initiated in North Africa and Asia, we recommend transmitting a declaration of war against Germany on behalf of the entire Entente.
Immediately following this declaration, No.1 Strategic Group will launch an air attack against Berlin, staging from Russian airbases. Blenheim and Battle aircraft should launch attacks against known MittelEuropan army concentrations and the city of Warsaw, forcing a MittelEuropan response.
It can be assumed, that in the chaos of those first 24 hours, the fog of war will prevent any perception of foul play by the Russians who may be kept indefinitely assured that Germany initiated the colonial conflict (as may our own troops). It can be almost guaranteed that the rapid escalation of conflict, prompted by our air attacks, will force a General Russian entry into the war.
Oh my God.
The door eased open and Warwick instinctively closed the case and spun the numbers out of order, only to see Anastasia peeking her head through the door. Her eyes glistened by the lamplight, adding magnetism to her soft smile.
“ Nicholas is well asleep, perhaps you can join me and continue this dull work of yours in the morning.”
Warwick watched, almost stunned as his wife entered the room, lamplight dancing across the folds of her dress, jousting with the shadows filling the folded layers of cloth. He tried to put on a plain face but after all these years, she saw right through him. Her face dropped into a frown of deep concern.
“My Love, What's happened?”
Staring at that 'Top Secret' seal, Warwick had no idea what to say.
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Those Canadian bastards....no good can come from the British! Nevertheless, use them to modernize, and then brake off, and form your own block. It is bellow imagination that Russia isn't a superpower, and leader of its own alliance! Even alone, Tsardom is way stronger then Entente or Mitteleuropa...
Damn, this sux... i hope Warwick will do the right thing...
Russia is very much powerfull, maybe not reaching superpower status, but neither canada germany or commune is. Anyway, Germany, perhaps just because of the proximity, would be far more likely to consult Russians than Britons, powers that are sole meaningful powers in their blocks become weak, powers that are able to reach consensus, those blocks succeed.*
unless they reach hyperpower status, which noone ever reached (ussr wasted it by missed investment and failing to bring china to the fold, while USA is currently wasting it by aggresively expanding their SOI and introducing leftism and dedemocratization to themselves)
Russia is very much powerfull, maybe not reaching superpower status, but neither canada germany or commune is. Anyway, Germany, perhaps just because of the proximity, would be far more likely to consult Russians than Britons, powers that are sole meaningful powers in their blocks become weak, powers that are able to reach consensus, those blocks succeed.*
unless they reach hyperpower status, which noone ever reached (ussr wasted it by missed investment and failing to bring china to the fold, while USA is currently wasting it by aggresively expanding their SOI and introducing leftism and dedemocratization to themselves)
Well the Russian's don't know yet, but if they did that would be a likely response.
The Empire isn't yet stronger than Germany on paper, nor could it take on the Totalist block...I think i'll need at least 2 more years of build up and modernization to really be ready to go.
Well there's nothing to do but try. Evidently the Canadians would like to have a shot at super-power status by putting the Empire back together...good luck to them.
Snapshot #6: Strategic Studies 101, 1993. ((Used Contribution by Deus Eversor))
((Note everyone, this update was originally prepared by Deus Eversor without any prompting by me, something for which i am quite greatful. I've been told i haven't been using enough maps so i appreciate someone doing some for me. I have, however, altered much of the text content, so if you have any problems with that, please blame me. ))
IUP Archive file #1993: Lecture in the Institute of Geopolitics in The Imperial University of St. Petersburg by Profesor Dmitri Von Lvoff said:The Lecture hall was packed to capacity, the first years settling in for their third week of class. Already, Profesor Von Lvoff had identified the patterns forming. A solid block of straight backed men and women with short cut hair snapped to their feet as he entered, they were the Cantonists. Throughout the rest of the group, you could spot the social cells; a group of old school friends here, a developing posse there. And, of course, in the front, a line of ethnically diverse faces belonging to those eager young minds that were determined, unlike many of their classmates, to hang off their professors every word.
-Be Seated.
Good-morning class. I'm not going to waste time going over the readings for this class at this point, i expect you'll have done them and i'll leave it to your Tutors to remedy the situation if any of you have not. Today we will discuss and debate the aftermath of The Re-Conquest of Mongolia. You'll remember that the essence of this class is giving you the ability to look at any given scenario, analyse it, and deduce both the likely actions of other parties, and the optimal action for you to take. Personally, i believe this particular time-point provides an interesting chance for you to do just that. Let's observe the first Slide, rendered with supreme artistic skill by yours truly.
Those of you who passed your Restoration Era history shouldn't need me to explain the legend. As we can see here, light green is area under direct Russian control, beige is the ujgurish Huijiang Autonomous Region under the control of the former Ma Clique. Dark red is old border while bright teal is delineates the zone of full integration from the Tibetan Zone. Now i've been telling you over these first two weeks that first impressions of any scenario are usually pertinent, so let's have some. Yes, You.
The professor zoned in on hand in the middle of the room. The young man's raised hand was tentative, and his posture indicated a lack of confidence in his surroundings. Time to give the boy a boost.
-Your excellency, why would we allow Ma Clique to take control of such a large region?
-Good question, it does seem at odds with Russian doctrine up to this point which had seen much of Central Asia directly integrated. Now it has never been totally disclosed, but to my understanding the intention was to push ethnic Han Chinese population to the east and give the Uighurs (which could otherwise rebel against us) a land in which those who opposed full integration could exist. This action also is the beginning of the process that causes the region to begin to fully dissasociate itself from China. You have to remember, after the revolt against the AoG, anti-european feelings are strong in China, and to integrate the territory immediately would risk altering the view of Russians from that of liberators from Sternberg's opression to a new tyrant, no matter how wrong such a view would be. That, I believe, is why the Ma were given such leeway. I suppose someone has already caught the logical dissonance here. Yes, you.
Lvov picked a young woman who he remembered was the daughter of some well renowned and respected lawyer. Hopefully she'd catch the trick.
"Much the same reasoning could apply to Tibet. It's also going to be prone to revolt, populated by heathens, falls outside our pre-14 de-jure borders...and yet it was subject to centralized rule, why?"
Lvov nodded. "Perhaps, but Tibet has a short land border with the Bengali Communists over the Himalayas. That border could not be left under Tibetan control, particularly given the potential for mass migration."
-But sir, aren't the Himalayas almost impassable?
For Large armies in 1938, perhaps. But never underestimate the power of groups that are either extremely motivated, or extremely desperate. Among the first oppressed escapees from Bhratiya will be guerrillas attempting to force imperial forces in Tibet and degrading the lives of the local population with the goal of reforming Tibet into a syndicalist recruiting camp. Tibet has been conquered three times in rapid succession and they are not in a position to deal with these issues without Imperial Assistance, unlike the Ma. The goal is not so much to integrate the Tibet immediately as such, but rather to give the Army and Empire the legal environment in order to do what is necessary to avert such an outcome. It should be noted that business investment is generally unwilling to extend beyond the borders the army and government are obliged to protect, and given the ambitious plans to expand the rail net into Tibet after it's taken, direct control begins to make a great degree of sense.
Now, let's move on from basic questions to properly analyzing your position as an Actor for Russian in this scenario.
Militarily speaking Russia is in a better position in Asia than it as prior to the Weltkrieg, marking the first point at which the restored Empire breaks new ground. Now you have a good staging point and defensive territory against both Indian Subcontinent and Chinese Mainland.
As you can see on this picture, Tibetan Plateau is the classic "higher ground". Granite marks mountains, leaves for jungles, dry earth for deserts, teal for Siberian forest, ice for permafrost.
-A magnificent map your excellency! There was a general giggle from some of the students at that point, while the Cantonists locked the agitators with disapproving stares.
Thank you, but i don't award points for compliments, we deal only with reality as it is, unblemished by ego or emotion in this field.So continuing, the red line is the de-facto border of our land , as determined by Our Emperor's will and thus is part of our Holy Empire. It should be noted they are relatively constrained given the swathe of lands in need of civilising beyond those borders yet Russia needed to act within her means at this point . Red arrows show us the main possible routes of expansion identified by those of you who did the option pre-class submissions.
-Yes, but you said Himalayas are impassable for large armies, and both the Himalayas and China are filled with them, how could one realistically expect to expand over them.
Good point. So think for a moment, if you've taken a defensible frontier, will you really push to immediately push beyond it? Here, you posses most of Himalayas, and you better be hope the provinces are being guarded by mountain divisions, while in Western India the requirements are going to be different again. I'll note that one submission i got before class suggested they would move against Bhratiya and push for a port in the Indian Ocean in support of the Entente. I understand that submission, our only working port beyond boundaries of Enlightened Europa at this point is frozen most of the year. Taking Bangladesh would render render, not only India as our "backyard" but whole of Asia. But there are severe problems with that strategy, beyond the obvious problem of moving the supplies for any large army through Tibet and the Himilayan Mountains. I know someone here will have picked it by now.
-Encroachment in India would antagonize not only our Britannic Allies, but Germanic as well?
Yes it would. Which is why i understand another one of you suggested Persia as a more likely target. Our Southern Frontier is less populated but also less subject to foreign interests than India. This student suggested it would be wise to Let Britannic (SOI marked in pink) Dheli also expand in this direction, undermining the ability of that State to truly re-unite India. They submit it would be unwise to allow such early rise of a new power, particularly given we will be likely engaged in Europe for the immediate future and unable to check against its rise. Another paper suggested using our diplomatic power to convince the Yunann state to open it's valleys as highway into Indochina. Gaining Yunann and Siam as allies or making them staging points for taking over lands or establishing political control will open us a passage go go even further, into Oceania, but since Britonic states are our allies, we have to accept Burma, Siam and Indochina our only potential targets. I must note that i'm happy at least one student thought about the prospect of using a tool other than the Imperial Russian Army. (orange color)
-Why would we need East Asia? I read that Siam has high rubber production, but we don't need that, we have our own resources, still untapped in Siberia, Central Asia...
Yes, and therein you've started to think about your actual strategic interests. For Russia, unlike certain other powers, expansion in this scenario is not dictated by Resource requirements. Japan by contrast, is seeing its entire strategic policy fall apart in the wake of resource shortages., we can stop waging wars for conquest for resources, but we can still control the economic, military and political space in order to control the access other enjoy to those same resources. At some point, this student suggested, the world would need to either trade with us on our own terms or face industrial oblivion.
-or wage wars on us.
By the time your industry is falling down, it's already too late. Japan is already highly depended on import of oil and other resources at this point having lost much of their old zone of control (marked in yellow). After the failed wars in Formossa, and their embarrassing peace deal with Manchuria and Trans-Amur, they have been cut off from shipments of oil, iron ore and other strategic materials from those zones. Only Korea remains under their control and with their overt hosility against red Formossa (alienating syndicalist powers), only the Pacific States of America, soon to be embroiled in a war against the CSA, is in a position to keep their industry powered. This student finished by observing that if the PSA fell, Russian control in Asia could render Japan all but impotent due to industrial collapse.
But i do note that some of you are more...dovish. One of you actually called for an alliance to be forged with the Reich as well as the Entent. Asia, then, could properly be carried forward into civilisation, just like the evil of Boxer Revolution was put to death by joint European power. I quote, "Only as a United Europa we could abolish the mentality of "our" or someone else's "backyard" and bring enlightenment to entire World and share the spoils". While i appreciate the attempt to get into character, i would note that the Empire's racial policy, even in 38' was among the most progressive in the world
-What if Bhratiya won against Delhi?
Good, you've just come up with a contingency. Now that's unlikely, but would permanently subvert Britannic interests in Asia. The victorious comune would still have to face the Himalayas and Hindukush giving us time until we will be able to crush them. Anticipating your next question, if the Germans lose, we will be tied in Europe for few years and too tired for massive fight in Asia, so any further expansion of our SOI(green) would have to be pursued by economic or political means. More worrisom wold be an Entente defeat in Canada. I note that those of you that dealt with that possibility suggested that we transport support to them but noted that without Vladivostok, such an act might be impossible. Some of you did suggest that nationalist sentiment might call for the annexation of Alaska however, but given that Russia posesses neither a marine core nor a strategic transport capability at this point, such dreaming is moot.
But that's all dreaming, and i appreciate your efforts to come up with potential plans, they were fascinating, but let's pretend for a moment that you're not a student in their third week of university. Let's pretend you're actually Cyril I Romanov, Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias and you are regarding your Eastern borders. Where would you actually look?
Let's click forward a slide and find out.
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Possibly a strong East-Asian Ally? If so, probably China though your mention of keeping China destabilized during the rap up of Mongolia sort of says no.
Next might be looking to the (bastards) Entente for help due to their naval superiority? Doubtful since the Czar is already suspicious of their intentions.
Other than that I'm too lazy to look for another possibility.
EDIT: Keeping everyone fighting everyone else? Destabilized China keeps China's threat level about zero. Japan weakened means their threat level would be low. The Entente would be something else though and how you would sow discontent with the syndicalist nations I don't know.
Next might be looking to the (bastards) Entente for help due to their naval superiority? Doubtful since the Czar is already suspicious of their intentions.
Other than that I'm too lazy to look for another possibility.
EDIT: Keeping everyone fighting everyone else? Destabilized China keeps China's threat level about zero. Japan weakened means their threat level would be low. The Entente would be something else though and how you would sow discontent with the syndicalist nations I don't know.
Since Japan lost it's controll over Primorsk, but still reintegration of Primorsk would be a stress test, reintegrating Manchuria would definitively produce a war, but then again, don't everyone wish to wash off the infamous defeat of 1904 and regain Port Artur? Land defeat might convince an already isolated Japan it cannot oppose Russia. Allowing Japan to stay in Korea (silently approving Formosa takedown) would give us the classical situation of the stick and the carrot, then Japan could be convinced to become chained to Russian resource supply, perhaps even allowing a royal mariage. Japan would make Russian ambitions real, grounded, even cemented, while Japanese themselves would enjoy relatively cheap resources and peacefull life (unless they would join their navy), a situation much better than iotl.
now contingency, if Russia doesn't take Primorsk first, so a blitzkrieg can be done against Manchuria and Japan, it might be possible to protract the war long enough for Qing to convince other chinese warlords to join alliance with Japan against Russia. This would be a serious threat and actually only chance for asian states to avoid completion of Russian Hegemony.
now contingency, if Russia doesn't take Primorsk first, so a blitzkrieg can be done against Manchuria and Japan, it might be possible to protract the war long enough for Qing to convince other chinese warlords to join alliance with Japan against Russia. This would be a serious threat and actually only chance for asian states to avoid completion of Russian Hegemony.
Port Arthur seems like more of a symbolic victory than a strategic one. Sure, you erase the "embarrassment" of 1904-5, but shouldn't that be the least of concerns for Russia after the October Revolution and the first Weltkreig put a remote Asian outpost in perspective?
Strategically Port Arthur is only useful if you want to dominate access to the Yellow Sea, particularly Tianjin. As such it's not really all that important until you can at least contest control of the area with the German East Asia Squadron. Commercially Port Arthur isn't anywhere near as important as Tianjin, Vladivostok, or Seoul. Not to mention the fact that Russia doesn't really have a merchant marine ready to make use of the Yellow Sea.
Strategically Port Arthur is only useful if you want to dominate access to the Yellow Sea, particularly Tianjin. As such it's not really all that important until you can at least contest control of the area with the German East Asia Squadron. Commercially Port Arthur isn't anywhere near as important as Tianjin, Vladivostok, or Seoul. Not to mention the fact that Russia doesn't really have a merchant marine ready to make use of the Yellow Sea.