Chapter 279: The Neptune Paradox
"If anything, by preventing Neptune's execution, Mosley has made it far more likely to succeed. As Paradoxical as it may seem, it may be that a successful military action by the Republic of Britain becomes their downfall. Only time will tell. Until then, we must plan."
- General Warwick, Royal Marines
Saint Petersburg:
“The left, Ruttenberg and his Imperial Democrats, are wedging us in the Duma with these demands for an invasion of Britain, and even with the Duma out of session the press are picking up on it. We’re going to need to apply additional pressure to stop the Siloviki in my party peeling off.” Yusupov’s voice betrayed frustration more than concern. The Conservatives dominated the Duma, but having Ruttenberg and his Imperial Democrats outflanking them on the right played badly in the press...and the next election was bound to bring complications.
“If we were allowed to release additional details to the membership, perhaps they’d understand the logic of our position. Most of that wing are former uniformed officers or similar, they can be trusted.”
Yuspov waved off Markov's suggestion
“sharing information ONLY with the military wing is a recipe for further fracture among the Conservatives.”
At his place at the Cabinet table, Lev was flicking an unlit cigarette between his fingers. The Tsar didn’t tolerate smoke particularly well, so the nicotine addict was clearly struggling.
“We’re the Imperial Government, not the Conservative Government. Let’s ignore the bleating and move on.”
Yuspov’s dislike of the young upstart was starting to grow day by day. He turned to the Tsar for support, only to see Vladimir still only half attentive, looking through that damn letter again.
He’d have to have a word to the staff, no correspondence from the English Princess before Cabinet.
“As I am certain his Majesty would agree, there is a need to keep our political flank secure. Losing our dominance of the Duma at the next election would fundamentally transform our position, and our stance on negotiating with Mosley is a critical weakness.”
The invocation of his name roused the Tsar from his reverie. He finally set the damn letter down.
This British knew what they were doing.
“With what the President says being true on all counts, perhaps it would be best to harden our position somewhat. We could demonstrate some escalating cooperation with Edward’s Government, after all, they were most cooperative on the French matter recently.”
The British absolutely knew what they were doing. One exiled Frenchmen and a letter from the Princess and already the hard stance was evaporating.
Lev saw his chance and jumped in
“The British are seeking access to our plans for Neptune, we could give Sir Winston that. Follow up with some firm statements in the press.”
Yuspov was pensive
“De Gaulle’s relations with the British are already frayed, if we quite publicly demonstrate a quid pro quo with Canberra, it may make things worse. We could lose the French entirely.”
Lev was having none of it
“Lose them to whom? You’re being too gentle on the man and his Junta. Every month he seeks further credit to fund his war, and he requires resource and arms imports for which there is no available alternative. We’re masters of Eurasia, he should fall in line.”
The Tsar hesitated a little at Lev’s proposal, holding his hands out, palms facing downward as if trying to physically push down the forcefulness
“ Our hope must still be that Algiers will see the wisdom in participating in a unified regime in France, under the leadership of a renewed French crown and within the Imperial structure we are putting in place. Hopefully the lack of real alternatives causes them to see reason. Until then, allowing the French people themselves the right of return in limited numbers is a valuable first step.”
“Then” offered Yuspov,
“perhaps best to moderate our response to these British requests. Focus for a moment on healing the wounds with France.”
The Tsar tapped his fingers on the letter again
“No, no, the military imperative with Britain does suggest we draw on every possible source of expertise. Bring Warwick and his men back in on the planning.”
Well played Churchill. Yuspov thought, well played.
British Embassy, Saint Petersburg
Winston Churchill’s mood filled him with more warmth than a fine glass of brandy ever could. The French were furious of course, but the pressures of military pragmatism would calm them in time. Meanwhile Warwick and the military mission finally had the keys to the Kingdom, the Russians had included them in a briefing on the plans for their invasion of Britain. The first report on those plans was now in his hands, Churchill finally getting a chance to see what the Russian behemoth had in store for that cretin Mosley.
Churchill’s mood began to drop however as he read through Warwick's memo on the Russian plans. The memo stretched on and on, covering everything from logistics, to climate, force structure and tactics.
The note in the margin at the bottom told the story rather more succinctly.
“Thank God they lost their transports and could not go ahead. Serious revisions required; they all would have died.”
From “Solar Dawn - The 1942 Imperial Offensives” by James Hetson
Chapter 21. The Neptune Paradox
There is a case to be made that the destruction of much of Russia's landing craft capability in the English channel ended up saving the Russo-Roman military machine from suffering its first major military reverse.
Initial STAVKA planning for an amphibious operation against Britain can best be described as half hearted and insufficient in its scale or detail. The focus had been on throwing some sort of attack together quickly, and betrayed a lack of understanding about the immense complexity of amphibious operations as well as the scale that would be required in order to breach Mosley’s defences.
Lacking the creativity and experience that had defined their operations on the European mainland, the first plan for a Russo-Roman amphibious operation called for a landing in the South East of England, coupled with a six division airborne operation to support the landings. Landings were to be undertaken primarily by infantry veterans of the Solar offensives, as there was not deemed to be enough time to bring together sufficient dedicated marine formations.
The list of issues went on.
The logistical preparations were inadequate, training, reconnaissance, and fire support planning were lacking, and the use of air-power in the plan missed by nearly an order of magnitude the amount of sorties that would ultimately be included in the plan.
Had STAVKA gone ahead with an opposed landing into the teeth of the heaviest British coastal defences in August or September 1942 as originally planned, the most likely result would have been the destruction of much of the precious airborne strength, and transformational boost to British morale.
Instead, when STAVKA was forced to pause and consult the specialist expertise of its allies. The frank evaluations, independently arrived at and delivered, by both the Royal Marines and the Japanese military attaché triggered a significant rethink.
Firstly, the operation would need to be significantly upscaled. Even with its best formations trapped overseas, the Union of Britain could call on a significant number of divisions and militia formations for home defence. It was supported by the most formidable set of coastal fortifications yet produced in human history.
As such, the front would need to be widened and the number of involved formations increased. The airborne component would be doubled, the amphibious forces tripled, and the number of transport aircraft allocated to follow up resupply increased by a factor of four. This elevated the proposed operation Neptune to, by some margin, the largest amphibious operation ever conceived up to that date.
Secondly, the formations and equipment involved would be reconsidered. Japanese experience reclaiming the (less heavily defended) island of Formosa had demonstrated the value of specialised landing formations, complete with dedicated training and equipment (including, in the Japanese case, amphibious tanks).
That meant that time would need to be spent raising additional marine units, converting extra existing infantry divisions to amphibious capability, and even then, planning would include the use of Japanese and potential British exile units. Infantry formations would be relegated to later waves, as would the heavy armour.
Thirdly, reconnaissance and planning around naval support would need to be overhauled. Beach defences, inland batteries, targets right down to individual pillboxes would need to be photographed, categorized, and written into combined air-naval preparatory bombardment plans. The Russian battlefleet would then need to hone its skills and be prepared to provide close gunnery support during the landing.
This list of concerns and necessary changes stretched on. One particular problem identified was the very heavy need for air attacks during the first and second days of the attack. Planners wanted to hit everything at once. They wanted to hit beach sites, rear areas, centres of communication, transportation infrastructure...the list went on. The desire was for an overwhelming, paralysing attack across the entire Southern half of the British isles.
Such an attack was beyond the capabilities even of the combined Imperial air forces. The requirement for a weapon which could deliver a one off ‘burst’ of sortie capability had long been envisaged in Vladivostok, and the STAVKA signed off on writing the use of more than three thousand of the new, highly secret pulsejet missiles into its planning.
All of this made a substantial delay inevitable. Planning would take time, training would take time, producing thousands of new specialised missiles, landing craft, bombardment monitors and all the other requirements for the operation would take, again, time.
Given this, STAVKA recommended that Neptune be delayed significantly. Instead of a1942 landing, the operation would be shunted to the 1943 campaign season.
This recommendation was made with full awareness of the costs involved. General Markov noted in his covering notes on the proposed plan that pushing the operation back until 1943 would “require the fliers and sailors to maintain their intensity of action against Britain for almost a year, rather than the initially planned two months, and would severely limit our ability to intervene in other war fronts for that time, be that Africa, India, the Americas, or Asia. Nonetheless, I believe that the successful conclusion of the war against Britain is of such importance that it demands the priority and consideration this proposal attaches to it.”
While the planning process was carefully guarded, evidence of the build-up on the French and Scandinavian coasts was impossible to hide. It amplified concerns in Britain, which redoubled its negotiations with Chicago for greater military support, but also invigorated the French Red Government in Africa. There had been some concern that Russia or the Austrians might involve themselves in the African struggle where the reds were fighting for their lives, and future, against the Mittelafrika and South African forces. With Britain absorbing Imperial focus for the time being, the Commune Government in exile believed it had a path to victory, and appealed to Chicago to divert potential aid from Britain to the African front.
The stage was set for a tense game of bartering and lobbying in Chicago.
