Ok let´s talk about that absurd early NGF formation
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When I can bring myself to countenance playing a Democracy at all, I'll play some games in the Americas for anecdata collection purposes 
Fair enough, but then balance the game by making it easier to form the Reich, not the NGF. Period.
Also, chronologically speaking, Prussia defeated Austria which made it lose its leadership over the german states forever and then allowed the NGF. A prussian defeat would mean austrian hegemony and no NGF. So, IMO Austria AI has to be reworked so that it will focus influence in Saxony and therefore an early NGF goal will force an early war. If it´s impossible to change the AI then remove prussian investments in Saxony, or give Austria investment there. Therefore balancing the influence game. It might not be "historical" but how much stuff isn´t historical already?
Finally, the one GP alliance per country system is definitedly showing its limitation here. The result is simple: the side with France wins. NGF is buddy with ottomans or (gasp) Netherlands? It´s f***ed. Also it´s BS that a GP was allied with a GP all times. That´s a major game diplomacy flaw, right there. Before 1870 for all intents and purposes France had NO alliance. The current diplomacy model is totally artificial. And what´s worse - it doesn´t create historical outcomes 99% time.
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The war for dominance that you're talking about is the War for Hegemony that's available once N&I is researched. In the game that's the war the NGF has to win to form the Reich, rather than the war Prussia has to win to form the NGF. I'm not going to deny that it's somewhat ahistorical, but I think it works well as a game. It's true that getting Saxony from Austria's sphere could be made a tad more difficult, but I wouldn't go beyond that myself.
A lot of the game models are artificial/arbitrary. You think the supply and demand model is accurate? The colonization race? Forcing a maximum of 1 GP ally is a decent system. You can't force GPs not to ally with each other at all, and building a complicated system of conditions will do no one any good. GPs aren't forced to ally with another GP, of course, but it's often in their interest to do so. It then becomes a question of who they ally with.
It does form both in my games, sometimes at my expense if I'm playing Scandenavia
Ok. Then NGF allies with Netherlands while France is with Austria or Russia, can´t ally with anyone else and is f***ed.
The current situation is bad. I think everyone should post outcomes of their games and check:
1- How many games had NGF and when;
2- How many games had Reich and when.
If 90% of times no Reich is formed, then early NGF to create balance not only has failed, but creates TWO errors. And then it´s time to check the reasons. Bad alliance system? Dumb UK? France OP? Many possibilities.
Well, it's already insanely hard for AI to form Germany without human help. Actually, I've only once seen that happen, and still Germany got beaten up by France + Russia in the second war, where France wanted cores back ( Russia did not take part of the crisis where NGF got A-L ). If devs make it harder for AI to form NGF by diplomacy, it will never be formed, because AI Prussia can't win Austria in a war after 1950, when they finally get casus belli for hegemony wars. Actually it's usually Austria who uses that casus belli, if NGF is not formed before Austria gets it. Prussia just don't have enough manpower to win Austria. Also it's more than likely that they don't have all of their starting spherelings either, if it's takes longer to form NGF.
But no matter what, AI Prussia/NGF/Germany is still really weak, and still gets demolished by France and Russia, and any opportunist countries after those 2 destroy their military ( I'm looking at you Austria + allies ). Also they have really hard time making good alliances, since Austria will not ally them, and UK is next to useless. Italy can help them against Austria, but France + Russia vs NGF + Italy is still a lost case. At least in my games, Russia alone have double the military score of NGF. In human guidance Prussia is a waking giant, but so is any other starting GP, so I think this is working quite ok. If I could change things, I would rather have France and Russia ally only AFTER Germany is formed, not day 1.
1- How many games had NGF and when: 6 out of 6, formed by the 1850s
2- How many games had Reich and when: 6 out of 6, a couple of them formed before N & I because the NGF was able to sphere minors without war
3- How many games had Greater Germany: 3 out of 6
In my game I've seen Prussia beat the French/Russian alliance fairly easily by themselves. They do it faster if they're allied with the UK, but they don't need help. The only time I've seen them have any trouble was in my Philippines game when they somehow ended up fighting France, Russia, and Austria simultaneously. Russia took part of Poland from them. Things looked really bad. I thought YES FINALLY I will see a game where there is no Germany. I must be enabling it somehow by playing in Europe. Then Prussia formed NGF and the next war they got Admit Hegemony and A-L from the same war thanks to France/Austria alliance.
2- How many games had Reich and when: 6 out of 6, a couple of them formed before N & I because the NGF was able to sphere minors without war
3- How many games had Greater Germany: 3 out of 6
In my game I've seen Prussia beat the French/Russian alliance fairly easily by themselves. They do it faster if they're allied with the UK, but they don't need help. The only time I've seen them have any trouble was in my Philippines game when they somehow ended up fighting France, Russia, and Austria simultaneously. Russia took part of Poland from them. Things looked really bad. I thought YES FINALLY I will see a game where there is no Germany. I must be enabling it somehow by playing in Europe. Then Prussia formed NGF and the next war they got Admit Hegemony and A-L from the same war thanks to France/Austria alliance.
People are forgetting that the establishment of the NGF was made possible only by two massive diplomatic blunders on the part of France's failure to intervene in the Austro-Prussian War and Austria's diplomatic isolation post-1853, and to model the historical outcome, we have to model an irrational France. This means the devs face a trade off - should they aim to model realistic decision making, or historical decision making? The solution might be somehow integrating the Crisis mechanism with the Sphere mechanic for the purposes of German and Italian unification, whereby the tension between the relevant GPs manifests itself directly rather than through the third party of sphere competition.
Bismarck was aware that Russia was always the real threat to German unification, and he went far out of his way to keep Russia focused on the Balkans and Central Asia, and convince them that Russia's interests would not be harmed by German unification. Pre-Reich Russia should probably be more aware of this.
Bismarck was aware that Russia was always the real threat to German unification, and he went far out of his way to keep Russia focused on the Balkans and Central Asia, and convince them that Russia's interests would not be harmed by German unification. Pre-Reich Russia should probably be more aware of this.
I have never had Germany form in any of my games. I seen NGF form here and there but they are usually really weak.
Yes, we absolutely have a prussian fetish here at Paradox
You have a ton of experience at the game, playing a major that is geared like prussia is isn't going to be super challenging, this is just the way it is. An AI can never come close to a really experienced player and without AI germany the balance in europe is lacking late game.
I don't really see the issue. This game isn't meant to be completely historical, and a few things can pass. The forming of the NGF and Germany is needed for the balance of gameplay.
Well, I wouldn't include Germany on that list. Once it forms it can easily take any two of Austria/France/Russia at one time, even with the AI playing it. At least that's my experience. And if the AI gets Greater Germany going the rest of AI Europe can just forget it because only a huge and well managed player nation can touch that.
It may be relevant to say whether we were using the patch. My first three games were vanilla HoD and my last three were with the beta. UK has been very strong in both my beta games (I'm playing them in the 3rd game, so cannot comment, but I did not help Germany form. I would have, but they didn't bother calling me for the war. Against France and Russia. Guess they thought they didn't need my huge army and navy. They were right.
AI Italy is the useless ally in my games. Having them on your side is nothing but a liability against a strong France and their pet Spain.
See that's interesting. In my games since HoD AI Russia tends to be pretty awful. Sure they can mobilize a lot of infantry, but their tech stinks and their troops just die horribly in the high tech Prussian meat-grinder. I see Prussians and Germans beating them at 2:1 odds. Most of the time Russia drops down around #7/8 or even loses Great Power status. Usually because they side with France in all the wars against Germany and lose their army repeatedly which allows the Ottomans and China to steal land from them. Then the crisises tear what is left apart and I end up with half the Soviet Republics on my map and the Russian Empire sphered by China.
The same thing happens to Austria. It's pretty horrifying. 90% of the crisises in my game end up being Austrian and Russian.
Big military score =/= strong military, funnily enough. It means 'very frightening military', which is not the same thing at all. Just before WW1, if you'd asked anyone who the most powerful army on the planet was, they'd have said Russia's simply because it was twice the size of anyone else's... that failed miserably to translate into good performance on the battlefield, tho.
1843? That's slow. 1840 is more realistic(heheheh). Germany by 46, or earlier, depending on how speedy you get.
That's if a player forms it. It is next to impossible for the AI to to form Germany before 1950s.
Can't really see an issue here. If you want NGF to form at the correct date, go read a book, but don't play a sandbox game...
I dunno, in my current game NGF only formed in 1854 with my help (Netherlands) because they could not get Denmark or Holstein sphered. They kept trying to influence Luang Prabang instead.