Wellll... Intriguing, but the Free World was unlikely to collapse of the Axis took Malta and Suez. Rommel got into logistical trouble whenever he went past Sidi Barini. I don't see the panzers driving on Baghdad and Khartoum. If the Axis had conquered the Med, focused a bit more on sea/land supply and fuel movement (Italian lorries were greatly prized by the British Army), if the Italian Army had whipped itself into shape a bit faster (performance had improved greatly before morale collapsed in 1943) AND Japan had obliged by taking Ceylon in 1942 it it possible India and the Middle East could have been lost, with Stalin pointedly complaining that the Germans opened a Second Front before the Allies. But the United Nations had already suffered a long string of devastating and humiliating defeats, I don't think a few more on the far side of the world would have made them throw in the towel. And it could be open for debate whether losing India and leaving China isolated would have been a huge net loss for the Allies, given the resources that were committed to the theater.
An earlier Barbarossa and an earlier Typhoon (the drive on Moscow) would have put Fritz right in the middle of Stalingrad type battles in Moscow and Leningrad when the mud and frost hit. True the Red Army did not have the mobile resources they had a year later so the Heer would probably not have had an army pocketed but they still would have paid a dear price and they still were not likely to win, even if Moscow (a major transportation hub, especially north-south) had been captured as a burnt husk.
And don't be too hard on Graziani, the British were hoping he would lunge forward and overextend himself. He was no ball of fire, but a man's got to know his limitations.

. Interesting info on UK treatment of Italian interests during the Phony war, I will need to read up more on this.