A special meeting of Committee members in the war room has been held, and 'Tri' opened the remarks with a reminder of the tense international situation and an explanation as to why this meeting was needed:
"Germany still hasn't attacked, and as we know, this is because of their involvement in Norway. The question is, what next... what if Germany never attacks? I think that we all agree that we cannot let Germany's agression stand, let alone it's agressive deployment of troops on our border. One way or another, this whole affair has to come to a head. Germany has gone far beyond what was agreed in the Molotov-Von Neurath pact. The outright annexation of both Greece and Yugoslavia by the Axis goes quite a bit further than counting those areas in their 'sphere of inluence'. Our discontent was made clear diplomatically through a series of Embargoes on the belligerent nations, but this seems to have only encouraged the Axis buildup of forces.
Moreover, the Axis still doesn't recognise the new status of Finland, whose government in exile in Berlin is still technically at war with us.
This fact has several important implications beyond Finland: First off, it means that the Red Army remains mobilised, for as long as this 'war' rages, secondly, it gives both Germany, and us a great excuse to break the pact. You see, the new Finnish government has warrants out for the previous one on various charges, some real, some trumped up. Constantly proving themselves to be poor strategists, the Germans haven't resolved this issue, and the Finnish non-surrender continues to be a thorn in the side of the Molotov-Von Neurath pact.
Now, let me just clarify what would happen if we declare war on Germany, as opposed to the reverse. First off, we would be at war with all Axis members, including Japan, which has the vast majority of it's Imperial Army on ours and Mongolia's borders. We would be perceived as more threatening, in all probably pushing Turkey into the axis, and making sure that Nationalist China will lean more towards the Axis, instead of being on the fence. This means that, to confidently declare war on the Axis, we need to be able to contain Turkey and Japan, while we fight the Germans on the main front. Now, I'm not a military man, so I don't know how many troops would be needed for either, but I suspect it's probably more than we have there now... I understand that optimal conditions for an attack should be present around the middle of May next year, which means that preparations need to be prioritised in order to have all needed forces deployed by then. I will thus cede the floor to the Military types and the numbercrunchers... I just wanted to make sure everyone understands what is at stake here...
If anyone is worried about Romania, don't be, they have stayed out of things so far, and keep going to great lengths to stay neutral, though far removed from the Comintern diplomatically speaking"
'Dva' our Red Army man then took the stage with some short remarks:
"As you remember, we have at our service some great military minds, and thus, the details were delegated to them. To accomplish the tasks outlined by 'Tri' in his 'what to expect' and 'who will we be at war with' opening remarks. So without further ado."
ex-Field Marshall
A.I. Egorov, always a specialist of Defensive Warfare rose from his seat as 'Dva' motioned in the General direction of the ex-Generals:
"I have been watching over the deployment of the, mostly, defensive reserves of the Reserves Army Group, and I have to say, things are shaping up quite nicely. North of the Marshes, we have all the reserves we need to counter some pretty strong opposition. Corps of Riflemen are dug in in Kaunas, Wilno, Riga, Minsk, and Tallinn. In the case of a German attack, these reserves should be sufficient to slow down a strong push in the north, and help man the defensive lines, if the front gets there. Buying enough time to deploy additional defensive forces in strategic locations.
In the south, we do have a bit of a problem, as urban centres are further removed. Beyond a Guards Corps with two Heavy Tank Guards Divisions in the Lwow area, and a Rifle Corps in Kyiv, beyond that, there isn't much. For now, given the diplomatic situation, the redeployment of the two Rifle Corps on the Romanian border could provide a Garrison for Odessa and Kryvyy Rih. Given the lack of terrain obstacles, I would like to suggest even more Heavy Tank Guards Divisions be deployed in this area, at the very least, two more, but ideally, 4 more of these Divisions, allowing for the formation of two mixed Guards Corps with 3 H Arm Divisions, two Gds Divisions and additional Gds attached to the Corps HQ. These corps could provide some very serious staying power, even in the Ukrainian plains. Mobile units, currently in the Armoured Army Group could also be redeployed.
I would also like to see fortification of urban areas continue, especially in the south, as Kryvyy Rih, and Dnipopetrovsk, don't have any fortifications yet.
So, for the Reserves, ideally, I'd like to see 4 more Heavy Armour Divisions and an Additional Rifle Corps. But, in a pinch 2 additional H Arm Divisions could probably slow down the offensive enough for more units to be trained if it comes to that."
ex-Chief Of The Army and Field Marshall
Tuchatjevskij stood up, seemingly somewhat offended at
Egorov's suggestion of peeling off units from the Armoured Army Group to defend the south.
"While it is good to have a defensive back-up plan, I don't believe that war with Germany will be won most effectively through large scale defensive fighting. This is why the Armoured Army Group was devised in the first place. I understand that the lack of a suitable tank made it somewhat pointless to train more regular Tank Divisions, but the T-34 has changed that. Therefor, I would like to suggest an ambitious expansion of our mobile and Armoured component. Egorov can keep his slow behemoths, however, there is still room in 2ya Tankovaya Armiya for three additional Tank Divisions, it would be most welcome if, by May next year, 2ya Tankovaya Division was at full strength. Additionally, I'd like to see all of our Cavalry in the West, in Half-Tracks, as well as our Mobile Guards in the Guards Tank Divisions.
That's not all though, once the tanks have broke through, Riflemen need to follow, at speed, to solidify gains and block counterattacks.
This brings me to Egorov's suggestion to use Motorised troops and Armoured Cavalry to defend the south. This is counterproductive, in my opinion. To beef up the Armoured Army Group, it would be desirable to set up a fully Motorised Army, including I. KK and the two existing Motorised Rifle Corps, as well as two additional Motorised Rifle Corps. I'd like to strongly press our need for more regular mobile forces to back up the tanks.
As for the deployment plan for the Armoured Army Group, the plan is to order it to go for Königsberg first, hoping to encircle German troops north of there, before changing their objective to Danzig and Torun, then Warszawa, and finally hooking back to the Brzesc-Litewski area. If successful, such an operation will leave the road to Berlin wide open. Another justification for the proposed sequence of objectives, is supply, taking Königsberg and Danzig should allow the Red Navy to ship in supplies from Leningrad to fuel further advances, a significant advantage over any operation that starts in the south."
ex-General
Primakov then intervened as soon as
Tuchatjevskij sat down.
"Considering the analysis of 'Tri', I'd like to point out the needs of secondary theatres. For example, to hold back an axis Turkey in the Caucasus, at least another corps of Mountaineers is needed. And the programmes to strengthen our presence in the Far East needs to be continued. Ideally, a full corps of Amur Tiger Cavalry should be part of 10ya Armiya by 1942, that means, three more Divisions need to be trained. Moreover, all of our Divisions out there will be fitted with Engineers, 10 Divisions still don't have them, though they will be reinforced by 1942 if the current training schedule of four parallel Regiments is kept. Additionally, I believe it would be beneficial to have some more special forces, either Marines, or Paratroopers, to effectuate surprise raids or open new, smaller fronts.
There are sufficient units for proposed special operations, but follow-ups could be complicated by the lack of more special forces, though these may be trained after the war has started. A third 'Mounted Comrade Brigade could also help make sure that Partisans are dealt with in a timely matter in Finland. so, to summarise, one more Mountain Rifle Corps for the Caucasus, three more Amur Tiger Cavalry Divisions for the Far East, and 10 Regiments of Engineers are the minimum requirements for our secondary fronts. Additional special forces and Mounted Comrades are desired, but optional."
With all of this discussion, no one had talked about the needs on the front line... so 'Dva' then added a small conclusion:
"I'd like to clarify that many Rifle Divisions on the front line are still short on Artillery, counting the units deployed facing Germany, Hungary, and Romania, the total requirement is for 65 Regiments. The Artillery programme thus needs to continue at it's high rate of production, just to cover the German Border by 1942. Considering the needs of other elements and fronts, there is a good chance that no increase in funding will be possible. Moreover, I will emphasise the fact that Upgrades should take priority over new units, as we want the Red Army to have the latest and greatest equipment and training. Talking of which, I'll let 'Vosem' take the lead on potential research for the Red Army"
'Vosem' thumbed through a stack of folders until he found the two labelled 'Red Army: Equipment' and 'Red Army: Theory and Doctrines', then he stood and started talking:
"There's a lot to talk about, but I'll try to be short...
Infantry weapons are up to date or better, though our designers have explained that they will probably be able to produce revolutionary new designs next year after gaining some more experience with manufacturing processes, weapons testing, and reading up on the latest technological developments. The same goes for specialist Engineer equipment, as well as for Artillery, Heavy Anti-Tank Artillery, Fast Tanks (L Arm optimised for speed by skipping one Armour upgrade), Armoured Cars, Main Battle Tanks, as well as vehicles based on those platforms like Tank-Destroyers and Self-Propelled Artillery. However, our Heavy tanks are still behind their foreign competitors as we had a bit of a late start on those. Militia weapons still date from the early 1930s and Cavalry Weapons from the late 1930s.
Our 4 teams for the equipment side of things are currently working on H Arm (2 teams), Militia Support Weapons, and the development of equipment and organisational structures for 'Marines'.
As for doctrines and theory, our Army is still somewhat behind, though the most important doctrines, Mass Assault, Delay Doctrine, Integrated Support, and Schwerpunkt are all up to date, as well as Operational Level Organisation. 4 teams are at work here as well, working on Blitzkrieg, Mechanised Offensive, Special Forces, and Infantry Warfare.
By May 1942, we expect to keep up the current research pattern, with the following order of priority:
Infantry - Anti-Tank - Artillery - Engineers - Medium Tanks - Light Tanks - Heavy Tanks - Militia - Cavalry
I foresee no particular issues here, Infantry weapons should be upgraded in early 1942, and the rest will follow
For doctrines, the current rule is to first research Morale improving theories before improving organisation, as with such a large army, the most important thing is getting disorganised units reorganised quickly to get them back into the fight so that there is always another unit ready to fight when one breaks under pressure."
Meanwhile, the wishlist had been written out on a blackboard by 'Sem':
Everyone nodded in agreement with the written out list, it looked good and everyone got what they wanted... until they noticed that Sem had added numbers
4 H Arm Divisions - 14.000 ICdays
3 Arm Divisions - 8.150 ICdays
3 Amur Tiger Cavalry Divisions - 4.140 ICdays
2 Mot Corps - 24.150 ICdays (12.075 / Corps)
1 Mtn Corps - 4.210 ICdays
65 Artillery Regiments - 24.480 ICdays
10 Engineer Regiments - 2.390 ICdays
Total: 81.520 ICdays or 326 IC over the 250 days to late May
'Sem' wasted no time in explaining what he had done:
"Counting units already in training and efficiency gains, that's about 300 IC over 250 days, or almost all of current production, upgrades and supplies included...Its probably possible, but everything else would have to go, I'm sure the Army will still need things like modern equipment for existing units, increased Air Support, improved infrastructure, and supplies, so gentlemen, think this over, things will have to be cut, or delayed past the declaration of war, to bring this list down to more achievable numbers. What is really necessary, and what is merely optional? To be reflected upon. For reference, an average of about 230 IC for all production, excluding upgrades and supplies, is to be expected over the following 250 days. Now, about 24 IC is dedicated to Infrastructure, fortifications, Air Bases, and Radar Stations. About 11 to the navy, and currently about 65 IC to the Air Component, that leaves Army expenditure at an average about 130-140 IC, if we wanted to cover half of what has been proposed, we would need 150 IC. We might be able to cut VVS expenditure a little, but this has to be looked into. Maybe 'Chteyre' would like to explain the VVS' goals with the possibility of an all out 1942 attack in mind."
'Chteyre' stood up to talk about the future of the VVS:
"The long stated goal to build up a significant fighter force to intercept the Luftwaffe is almost complete... to be precise, we are now close to having 7 operational Fighter Aviation Corps of 496 Yak-7s, and once this goal is reached we are confident we have enough to intercept everything that flies directly over our European front. After that goal is reached, it would be desirable to assemble one or two smaller, longer-range Fighter Aviation Corps of 248 La-7s for deployment to the Far East.
On the Ground Attack side, we have our 2 Bombardment Aviation Corps, with 200 Yak-4s each. Assault Aviation Corps continue to be assembled. We have 4 operational corps with 248 Il-10s and 124 La-7s each, and a 5th is in production. The goal here is to have at least 6 Assault Aviation Corps.
To add more versatility to the VVS, a Heavy Bomber Aviation Division is in production, delivery is expected by January.
Li-2 Transports are also in production, the next Transport Aviation Division, our third, will be deployed in mid-November.
The Navy has 7 Carrier Aviation Groups, this means that there are currently 3 groups in reserve, but when the Minsk is delivered, at least another Group will need to be provided for the next Carrier to get it's full complement.
So, I see 'Sem' likes numbers, so, by late May we would like to have 4 more Assault Divisions, 4 more La-7 Fighter Divisions, 2 more Yak-7 Fighter Divisions, and at least one Heavy Bomber Division and one more Transport Division. Aeroplanes in production are half-way done, on average."
'Vosem' then returned with his folder labelled 'Aeroplane Development':
"Our light Aeroplane designs are top notch world beaters, only electronics and Air Launched torpedoes lag behind a bit, though they are currently being brought up to scratch with the development of new designs.Larger Aircraft design does lag behind substantially, the planes share the same up to date engines, but otherwise, they are some way behind the competition. Medium Fuel Tanks are being researched to add some range to our twin-Engined bombers, but otherwise no research is planned right now.
Training and theory is much the same story, the ground crews and pilots of our Fighters and Assault bombers are well trained. Interception tactics and Fighter Targeting Focus tactics are also entirely up to date. Ground Attack tactics, Logistical strike tactics (thanks to the British) and Tactical Air Command could be better, but are decent, the rest is bad, as in 1918 bad, priority was always given to the small aeroplanes which were always meant to be the bulk of the Air Force, at least in the first stages. Some minor inroads are being made, with the development of TAC ground Crew Training, and Airborne Assault tactics. Four research teams are working on tactics and training for the Air Component of both the Army and the Navy."
'Sem' was writing all that down:
4 x La-7 IAD 4.820 ICdays (3,5 x 1.377)
2 x Yak-7 IAD 1.990 ICdays (1,5 x 1.327)
4 x Il-10 ShAD 3.640 ICdays (3 x 1.213)
1 x TB-3 DBAD 1.810 ICdays (0,5 x 3.620)
1 x Tra TAD 1.010 (0.5 x 2.020)
Total: 13.270 ICdays or 53 IC over 250 days.
"Now this seems more reasonable, and it means that VVS spending has some room to go down soon as an average of 53 IC should provide sufficient firepower."
There was a silence as those present were hesitating whether the meeting was over not, when 'Piat' stood up to talk about the navy.
"We will soon launch Minsk, our second Kyiv-Class Aircraft Carrier, and in light of that, I would like to argue to continue on with the construction of a third Fleet Carrier, and at least two more Sevastopol-Class Destroyer Flotilla's. As I understand it, there is also a need for some additional Naval Transports, though that can be somewhat delayed, after the next Transport Flotilla is delivered. Our navy's main role in a 1942 offensive is to provide shore bombardment, and to that purpose, both our Red Banner Baltic Fleet and our Black Sea Fleet have sufficient firepower. Additionally our Aircraft Carriers can provide additional Air Support, though that would probably be the exception rather than the rule.
Our many submarines are spread across our bases, ready to harass Axis convoys. And then, we have our Carrier Fleet, I don't know exactly where it is, but it's on a long term exercise in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, it passed through Archanglesk before returning to the Mediterranean. I should point out that we would like to avoid our Carrier Fleet getting stuck in either the Baltic or the Black sea upon war with the Axis. This is why the fleet, officially based in Sevastopol, is out and about, outside the Black Sea. I have been told there are several plans to deal with this problem permanently, but all depends on the situation at the moment the war starts."
'Vosem' jumped in again with research information:
"In stark contrast to Army and Air Force, our navy has a only a single Research team, having previously relied on stolen technology, something which seems to be becoming more difficult. Naval technology is woefully behind foreign rivals. Our Carriers are equivalent to first generation Carriers like the Béarn or the Courageous Class and are surpassed by more recent designs like the Ark Royal, and that's not to mention the foreign designs that haven't been built or that we haven't seen yet. Of course the shortcomings of our Carriers are somewhat compensated by our very modern Aeroplanes, even in the Carrier Aviation Groups.
Even our newest Sevastopol-Class Destroyers aren't very good, their speed was good a couple of years ago, but now, compared to the Royal Navy, it's more middle of the pack really, and the rest is worse. We do have some ASW weapons, and small Radars installed, but neither is up to date, but it's something I guess.
On the doctrines, it's even worse, our Navy Research team is very slowly developing our own homegrown Fleet Auxiliary Carrier Doctrine, due to be finished in late November. For the rest, we know the other main doctrines, but neither training, nor tactics have been developed further."
'Sem' had long finished his list:
CV 6,21 IC
DD 4,07 IC / TP 6,09 IC
Total: An average of 10 IC continuously to maintain the current programme...
"To conclude, Gentlemen, we need to cut or delay somewhere... with a total demand for production equivalent to an output of 387 of the reference 1936 Industrial Complexes, and most likely 'only' 230-240 available for production on average, this is not insignificant. The bulk of this 'delusion of grandeur' is coming from the Army, so it's there that I expect the most cuts will be made.The Soviet Union has one of the largest industrial bases in the world, and still we don't seem to be able to satisfy the needs and wishes of our Army...
Moreover, we need to consider further improving Industrial Output and Efficiency through research, from what 'Vosem' said, it seems the VVS has more research teams than it absolutely needs, so once those fancy torpedoes are ready for production, that team could start work on improving Industry and Supply management, which are currently adequate, but could be improved towards next year."
'Vosem' then insisted on speaking one last time, everyone was hungry and several people had already gathered their things, but, reluctantly they let him speak:
"I would just like to remind you all that we have an ongoing long-term project looking into secret Nuclear Research, as well as a team of Engineers responsible for Radar technology, computing machines, as well as en- and decryption, from time to time, they help out with industrial research as well. The rest of our intellectuals are mostly training officers, while a couple are diplomats, mostly trying to keep Nationalist China out of the Axis, for a lack of being able to pull them closer to us. A small fraction is training spies for insertion into the United Kingdom, mostly in hopes of stealing naval, and other, technology."
I then rose from my seat and told them that lunch was served, and to mull over our strategy. We shall all consider what needs to be adjusted to ensure success in a 1942 offensive, and continued readiness until then. We will reconvene tomorrow to put in place an achievable strategy.
Greetings,
'Odin'