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roverS3

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In your game universe too? Curse them! :mad:;)
I don't really see the point of their strategy... the only thing I can think of is that they want to increase the pressure on the Soviet Union...
For some reason, the Axis is mostly leaving Romania to it's own devices with only intermittent influencing campaigns... they are far from the Axis corner right now

It’s not that you have too much on or near the border that it may prevent them from breaking the pact at this stage?
Well, we only slightly outnumber them on the line, from what I can see, and many of our strongest units are held back in urban areas and near the fortified lines... so I don't expect that to be a problem. IIRC they don't need parity in numbers to break the pact and trigger Barbarossa. They only need something like 3-4 numbers, which they definitely have right now (on the border)
 
13th of June 1941, 'Odin', 10-day report #162

roverS3

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The 13th of June 1941, Vologda, 8,4°C, 10am Moscow Time,

Report on the state of the Soviet Union for the ten day period between the 4th and the 13th of June 1941,

by 'Odin'

Army:
The first of a new type of Division, that definitely isn't part of the Army, 1. NKGBF Konnaya Brigada (Cavx2), has been deployed to NKGBF, 1st Army Group, Leningrad HQ in Finland.
Two new Artillery Regiments, 63. AP and 61. AP have been deployed. The first to Maj. General Leselidze's 11. SD, 7ya Armiya, 3rd Army Group, Brjansk HQ, the second to Maj. General Kachalov's 37. SD, 6ya Armiya, 2nd Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA.

Army numbers (Brigades/Personnel) Reserves included (these numbers don't include regiments being upgraded):
Front line troops: 630 / 1.890.000
Support troops: 261 / 261.000
Total fighting troops: 891 / 2.151.000
Headquarters: 60 / 60.000
Total Army Personnel: 951 / 2.211.000
Officers: 87.017 + / 95.110 needed / 91,491 %
Active Leaders: 254 / 169 more available
Factories continue churning out 152mm ML-20s, enough to equip two more Artillery Regiments, the men have already started training.
Another 'definitely not Cavalry' Brigade of NKGBF 'Mounted Security Comrades' has started training.
Army leadership:
New Commissionner of State Security 2nd Class (definitely not equivalent to General) Provalov SK1, WS has been given command of the brand new NKGBF, 1st Army Group, Leningrad HQ.
New Senior Major of State Security (definitely not equivalent to Maj. General) Skvortsov, SK1, LW, BM has been appointed to lead 1. NKGBFKB, NKGBF, 1st Army Group, Leningrad HQ.

Air Force:
The first 100 brand new La-7s have been delivered to the VVS, they are early versions, so a few changes will be made to bring them up to scratch with the latest developments in Aeroplane design. The planes, forming 125. IAD-PVO, have joined Air Maj. General Rudenko's IV. ShAK, where they will be tasked with escorting Il-10s, and light bombing and strafing of enemy ground troops.
Aeroplane Numbers (Wings/Planes):
Interceptors: 25 / 2.500
Multi-Role Fighters: 6 / 600
Close Air Support: 7 / 700
Carrier Air Groups: 7 / 700
Single Engined: 45 / 4.500
Tactical Bomber: 4 / 400
Total Bombers: 11 / 1.100
Transport Planes: 2 / 200
Total VVS: 44 / 4.400
Total Navy: 7 / 700
Total Aeroplanes: 51 / 5.100
Active Leaders: 18 / 24 Reserve
More La-7s, these ones of the latest variant will continue to be produced by the same production line, the next 100 will form 129. IAD-PVO.
Navy:
No changes in the Navy for the last 10 days.​

Politics / International:
The Norwegian Front
Norway (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 84,9 =
Germany (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,0 / 82,8 =
GNW41-06-13-min.jpeg

In the north, the Germans seem to have been securing their flanks, and have now moved towards Trondheim, they have reached the outskirts of what is, right now, an unguarded city, by taking Orkdal.
The German troops in Lom broke out of their encirclement by retaking Tyin.

Further South there has been no movement.
British North Africa Front
United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,0 / 77,7
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4
BNAF41-06-03-min.jpeg
The RAF has rebased it's aeroplanes away from El Iskandarîya to Lemesos and Tel Aviv, heavy bombardments continue as a hard battle for the city itself rages.
French North Africa Front
France is a Government in exile.
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4

No movement here for the last 20 days.
East Africa & Ethiopia Front
France is a Government in exile.
United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,0 / 77,7
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4
EEAF41-06-13-min.jpeg

Mogadiscio has fallen, and the Italians in the region will soon be walked into POW camps. Soon nothing will be left of the Italian East-African empire. Let's just hope the Brits aren't trading Alexandria for Mogadiscio...
The Greek Front
Greece (Surrender Progress / NU): 86,20 / 87,0

The slow marching race to
Irakleio between Greek and Italian troops continues...

Industry:
Working Industrial Capacity / available capacity: 240 / 324
IC Usage: ( Allocated IC / Need )
Upgrades: 34,30 / 36,98
Reinforcement: 2,00 / 2,15
Supplies: 32,00 / 41,72
Production: 226,54 / 228,51 (the Licensed MP remains unfunded)
Consumer Goods: 29,16 / 29,16​
Stockpiles:
Energy: Maximum tonnes +
Metal: Maximum tonnes +
Rares: 37.873 tonnes +
Crude: 99.948 barrels +
Supplies: 39.126 tonnes +
Fuel: 99.584 barrels +
Money: 2.349 -​

Intelligence:
Spy numbers, spies in (active / added / lost / caught by us)
France (Supporting our Party / Counterespionage): 5 / 0 / 0 / 0
{ Germany (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 }
{ Japan (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 }​
UK (None) : 10 / 0 / 0 / 0
Other: 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total: 15 / 0 / 0 / 0​
Reserves: 1
Spy training leadership expenditure: 0,65 (a new spy every 10 days)
We will resume UK espionage operations as soon as a second reserves operative is ready to make up for initial losses...
We have so far recruited 16 like-minded Covert Operatives in our French sleeper cell.
Research:
New and better fixed Heavy AA Guns, the new 85mm guns will be replacing the 76mms currently installed.
85mm-air-defense-gun-m1939-min.png

The new 85mm 52-K AA gun, a rapid-fire variant of the guns on our Su-85s, it is a potent weapon against even the highest flying and best-armoured enemy bombers.
Research of a better Encryption Machine (Level 2) to code our radio communications is now underway.
Red Army theorists have come up with better Schwerpunkt (Level 4) tactics which should improve the overall morale of our Armoured formations.
They are now looking to improve the Red Army's grasp of Mechanised Offensives (Level 3).
Statistics:
National Unity: 83,223 (-0,01)
Neutrality: 0,00 =
Dissent: 0,00 =
Manpower:
Available: 2.094.000
Men To reinforce(need): 3.070
Men To mobilise(need): See above
Monthly gain: 48.200 Men (1 fully mobilised Infx3, AT Division every 7 days)​
No changes in Party Popularity for the last 10 days.
Party Organisation:
- Communist Party: 79,92 (+0,42)
- Trotskyite: 9,20 (-0,1)
- Bukharinite: 4,30(-0,1)

- Octobrist: 4,90 (-0,1)
- Trudoviks: 1,60 (-0,1)
- Social-Revolutionary: 0,00 =
- Kadets: 0,00 =
- Tsarists: 0,00 =
- NTS: 0,00 =
- POA: 0,00 =
This Information is accurate on the morning of the 13th of June 1941, I hope it serves you well in fine-tuning your possible suggestions.

'Odin'​
 

Bullfilter

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The VVS will be as well-prepared as possible for the GPW: they will need to be. If they can stand up to the Luftwaffe - or at least interfere seriously with their ground attack plans - from the get-go, that will be a very important contribution to containing the Fascist assault. The Committee itself will be largely directing the air campaign, I understand (ie not the AI)?
 

roverS3

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The VVS will be as well-prepared as possible for the GPW: they will need to be. If they can stand up to the Luftwaffe - or at least interfere seriously with their ground attack plans - from the get-go, that will be a very important contribution to containing the Fascist assault. The Committee itself will be largely directing the air campaign, I understand (ie not the AI)?
Our planes, especially our interceptors, are numerous and our technology is definitely not lacking, if the Germans don't attack in the next few game days, I'll do a VVS update, showing current deployments and aeroplane numbers in an aesthetically pleasing (or at least neutral) manner, less elaborate than that Red Army update... though I might still get carried away...
 
15th of June 1941, 'Tri', The fall of Crete, and more German territory in the Med.

roverS3

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The 15th of June 1941, Vologda, 8,4°C, 4am Moscow Time,

I woke up in a sweat from another bad dream, this one was about large German felines with Iron Crosses around their necks hunting bears...
I soon realised that it wasn't the base alarm, but just my personal telephone that was ringing... You all know who it was:

"Sorry to wake you again... but there has been a new development. The Italians won the race to Irakleio, and even though the Greeks valiantly shipped in another heavily disorganised and depleted Division, the Alpini took the city without firing a bullet, thus ending Greece's valiant stand against the fascist bunch... The Germans immediately claimed this victory as their own, probably to distract from the fact that Norway was still alive and kicking, well they did lose Trondheim yesterday, but their Army does remain intact. All territory not occupied by Italians or Bulgarians promptly became German. The Germans now have the Western half of Crete with the Air Strip in Chania, and the island of Mytiléné, in the North Aegean Sea. This gives them a small Naval Base and a small Air Base in the Mediterranean, though it doesn't give them a reliable supply route to the Air Base... unless you believe the Italians will reliably supply their German brethren in territory they fought for? Well, off to bed, let's hope this doesn't push OKW over the edge yet... the longer they wait to strike East, the better for the great Soviet Union."
As usual, maps and pictures were soon to follow this expected, but still unwelcome news.

GRF41-06-41-min.jpeg

The new, divided map of
Crete.

german-mountain-infantry-on-crete-1941-cpmw0m-min.jpg

A token Garrison of Gebirgsjäger was flown into the
Chania Air Strip to cement the German claim on the area.
Well, we will do our utmost to liberate the brave Greeks, but now I will return to bed, and to anxiously waiting for the German hammer to fall...or not to fall...

Greetings,

'Odin'
 

Bullfilter

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Is it just a week or so to go now? Or will the situation in Norway stay Hitler’s hand? We can all only guess ... :confused:
 

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Remind me, has there been a German-led invasion of Yugoslavia yet? I can't remember one, but IIRC the German AI likes to do that before Barbarossa, so we may yet have some time to prepare...
 

serutan

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The Germans have already taken care of Yugoslavia. That's probably the reason they've been sniffing around the borders
of the Rodina.
 

roverS3

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Remind me, has there been a German-led invasion of Yugoslavia yet? I can't remember one, but IIRC the German AI likes to do that before Barbarossa, so we may yet have some time to prepare...
The Germans have already taken care of Yugoslavia. That's probably the reason they've been sniffing around the borders of the Rodina.
@serutan answered @nuclearslurpee 's question very well here.
I played ahead a couple of days, and after Crete had fallen, they started moving their units on the border around again... they don't seem to be going anywhere, except maybe a few are going towards northern ports. They just seem to be switching places along the border.
As mentioned before, there are only two real German headaches that may stand between them and an overconfident lunge to the East... Norway, and Romania. The former is putting up a fight, and is pretty out of reach for reinforcements, unless the Germans built new transports or extricated their Fallschirmjäger from Rodi.
The latter is remaining staunchly neutral, and many Axis influencing campaigns didn't amount to much, as the Romanians pulled back towards the Allies, and the Germans didn't persevere. Then again Romania remains far from the Comintern, so if not provoked or severely influenced, it will probably just stay out of the whole affair.
North Africa is not a problem for the Axis at this point. The Italians managed to transport much of their armed forces to the region and the Brits are having trouble holding them back with 2 British Divisions, 1 Iraqi Division, and a whole lot of bombers. (see next update for specific developments). Italian losses from continuous RAF bombings must be atrocious, but it's merely a drop in the bucket compared to the sheer amount of troops they have there. Also the Regia Marina still has about half or more of their Battleships, so they remain a force to be reckoned with.

Is it just a week or so to go now? Or will the situation in Norway stay Hitler’s hand? We can all only guess ... :confused:
We wait and see...
 
23rd of June 1941, 'Odin', 10-day report #163

roverS3

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The 23rd of June 1941, Vologda, 8,4°C, 10am Moscow Time,

Report on the state of the Soviet Union for the ten day period between the 14th and the 23rd of June 1941,

by 'Odin'

Army:
4 new Artillery Regiments, 152mm ML-20's included, have been deployed to:
Maj. General Firin's 4. SD, II SK, 1ya Armiya, 2nd Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA.
Maj. General Bochenkov's 50. SD, IX SK, 6ya Armiya, 2nd Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA
Maj. General Kholostyakov's 33. SD, IV SK, 4ya Armiya, 4th Army Group, Odessa HQ.
Maj. General Larichev's 121. SD, VII SK, 4ya Armiya, 4th Army Group, Odessa HQ.
A new Motorised Rifle Regiment (Motx3, Eng, SP Art), 202. MSD, has been deployed to Lt. General Krasnopevtsev's XXX MSK, Armoured Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA.
Army numbers (Brigades/Personnel) Reserves included (these numbers don't include regiments being upgraded):
Front line troops: 631 / 1.893.000
Support troops: 267 / 267.000
Total fighting troops: 898 / 2.160.000
Headquarters: 60 / 60.000
Total Army Personnel: 958 / 2.222.000
Officers: 87.517 + / 95.810 needed / 91,344 %
Active Leaders: 255 / 168 more available
More half-tracks are being produced, they will be used to upgrade two more Regiments:
2 KP, the other Cavalry Regiment of 6. KD, I KK, 4th Army Group, Odessa HQ
and 101. MGvSP, the Motorised Guards Rifle Regiment of Maj. General Shtern's 1. GvTD, I GvTK, 2ya Tankovaya Diviziya, Armoured Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA.
A Motx2, TD unit has started training while SU-100s are produced to give Lt. General Krasnopevtsev's XXX MSK HQ, Armoured Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA some firepower of it's own.
4 more Artillery Regiments have started training, while even more 152mm guns are produced.
Army leadership:
New Maj. General Nedelin SK3, FB, has been put in command of the brand new 202. MSD, XXX MSK, Armoured Army Group, Moskva HQ/STAVKA.

Air Force:
No changes in the VVS, nor the Navy Air Fleet for the last 10 days.
Navy:
No changes in the Navy for the last 10 days.​

Politics / International:
Greece is no more, their government has surrendered to the Italians with no way out, not even the hope of a government in exile remains for the Greeks.
The Norwegian Front
Norway (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 84,9 =
Germany (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,0 / 82,8 =
GNW41-06-23-min.jpeg

The last 10 days, things quietened down in Norway. The Germans walked into Trondheim, and Storen, to it's South, unopposed, they risk cutting the country in two, but that's not that much of a problem as Narvik can easily be linked with Oslo, where the fight really matters, by sea. Nothing else really moved as both sides seem to be licking their wounds and regrouping after the wild back and forth of the past few months.
British North Africa Front
United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 5,5 (+5,5) / 77,7 Loss of El Iskandarîya
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4
BNAF41-06-23-min.jpeg

After a long and desperate fight by the ca.9.000 man Garrison, El Iskandarîya has fallen into Italian hands. The Royal Marines Division to the south of the city, exhausted from continuous fighting for months now, often against vastly superior numbers, sometimes against tanks, withdrew across the Nile after the city fell, yielding Ezbet Abû Keifu to the Regio Esercito. Reinforcements that were underway from the UK to assist the Garrison came too late and were rerouted to Tel Aviv Yafo, the two fresh Divisions, one of them Royal Marines, the other Infantry are now racing towards the front line, hoping to keep the Suez Canal open for business.
During all of this, another Italian transport Flotilla was sunk by HMS Furious's Air Wing.
French North Africa Front
France is a Government in exile.
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4
FNAF41-06-23-min.jpeg

The Italians have taken Fez, 120km from Casablanca, chasing out demoralised troops of the Armée de l'Afrique. The first of the fleeing troops have made it to Casablanca, but no supply was available as the French Navy continues to hog the meagre amounts that do come in to repair it's ships. The two-Division Garrison of Casablanca is the only group of French units in the area still organised enough to put up a fight, but only barely so. Maybe they'll be able to hold off the less numerous Italians once, but then, the lack of supplies will probably cost the French their last sizeable base in Morocco. Rather worryingly, the fleeing Armée de l'Afrique seems to be moving to the south of Casablanca, implying that there won't be even a partial evacuation of troops at this stage despite the presence of transports in the Port. Evacuation through the small port of Tamanar will be a lot more difficult, if not impossible. All hope may be lost for the French Army if they don't evacuate at least some of the elite units that don't have enough supplies to fight anyway... With only 4 Divisions outside of North Africa, a total loss of the Armée de l'Afrique will take France out of the land war in practical terms, though it's navy may still make a comeback...
East Africa & Ethiopia Front
France is a Government in exile.
United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 5,0 / 77,7
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 79,4
EEAF41-06-23-min.jpeg

The British are finally puling a few units from the front line to their ports in this area, hopefully to be transported to defend the Suez Canal...With only three provinces around Berbera and a single cut off and demoralised Militia Division remaining in the area, Italian resistance in this area is over anyway, and East Africa is now firmly in British hands, the mopping up is expected to be over in 10-20 days.

Industry:
In Moskva Heavy Artillery Bunkers, more underground Ammunition and food stockpiles, as well as another ring of Machine-Gun Bunkers have been completed. (Level 7)
Even more barbed wire, tank traps, and tunnels (Level 8) will be built and installed as another round of fortification upgrades in the Capital starts.

Working Industrial Capacity / available capacity: 240 / 324
IC Usage: ( Allocated IC / Need )
Upgrades: 29,90 / 29,97
Reinforcement: 2,50 / 2,74
Supplies: 31,00 / 41,71
Production: 231,55 / 231,44 (the Licensed MP remains partially unfunded)
Consumer Goods: 29,16 / 29,16​
Stockpiles:
Energy: Maximum tonnes +
Metal: Maximum tonnes +
Rares: 38.230 tonnes +
Crude: Maximum barrels +
Supplies: 39.486 tonnes +
Fuel: Maximum barrels +
Money: 2.329 -​

Intelligence:
Spy numbers, spies in (active / added / lost / caught by us)
France (Supporting our Party / Counterespionage): 5 / 0 / 0 / 0
{ Germany (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 }
{ Japan (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 }​
UK (Tech Espionage/Laying low) : 9 / 2 / 3 / 0
Other: 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total: 14 / 1 / 3 / 1
Reserves: 0
Spy training leadership expenditure: 0,65 (a new spy every 10 days)
Spy hunters were waiting for our agents to pop out of hiding, low UK counterespionage was hiding very active Allied efforts. In two days, three of our spies were caught by an unlikely coalition of Buthanese, Nepalese, and Iraqi spy-hunters operating in the UK.
The mission was called off, in a couple of months, we will try again, with even more reserves.

We have so far recruited 16 like-minded Covert Operatives in our French sleeper cell.
Research:
No completed Research and no new projects for the last 10 days.
Statistics:
National Unity: 83,233 (+0,01)
Neutrality: 0,00 =
Dissent: 0,00 =
Manpower:
Available: 2.097.000
Men To reinforce(need): 4.230
Men To mobilise(need): See above
Monthly gain: 48.200 Men (1 fully mobilised Infx3, AT Division every 7 days)​
No changes in Party Popularity for the last 10 days.
Party Organisation:
- Communist Party: 80,02 (+0,1)
- Trotskyite: 9,10 (-0,1)
- Bukharinite: 4,20(-0,1)

- Octobrist: 4,80 (-0,1)
- Trudoviks: 1,50 (-0,1)
- Social-Revolutionary: 0,00 =
- Kadets: 0,00 =
- Tsarists: 0,00 =
- NTS: 0,00 =
- POA: 0,00 =
This Information is accurate on the morning of the 23rd of June 1941, I hope it serves you well in fine-tuning your possible suggestions.

'Odin'​
 

Bullfilter

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The waiting game goes on. A bad thing if Suez is lost, of course. If the Allies really are driven out and Iraq falls too, that really is starting to get close to a pesky southern front. And would probably mean a stronger Japan when they enter the war. Which may or may not be against the Rodina.
 

roverS3

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The waiting game goes on. A bad thing if Suez is lost, of course. If the Allies really are driven out and Iraq falls too, that really is starting to get close to a pesky southern front.
The impact on the GPW is not to be underestimated... If the British manage to maintain a strong RN and RAF presence in the Eastern Med, and add enough troops to stop, or at least slow down, the Italians, this will dissuade the Italians from pulling any troops from North-Africa to send them to the Eastern Front, both because transporting them is risky, and because they are needed, or at least desired to hold and ultimately push back the British. The Royal Navy is winning the fight for the Med, with the Italians almost certainly pretty much out of escorts, submarines and maybe also transports, and also down 3 Battleships and 7 Heavy Cruisers. If the Royal Navy maintains enough bases, it is very likely that any Axis units in Northern Africa will be, or are already, confined to Northern Africa until the RM gets more escorts and transports and/or they reach the Turkish border and obtain transit rights and/or, worst case scenario, an Axis Turkey...
Amongst the Italians in Northern Africa, an expeditionary German H Arm Division was spotted, and we really want to keep that Division on the wrong side of the Med...

And would probably mean a stronger Japan when they enter the war. Which may or may not be against the Rodina.
The loss of Suez would definitely severely impact the UKs ability to deploy units to the Far East and supply the ones already there, so yes, an easier time for Japan, especially in S-E Asia.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, the Front's about to rock.:)
Indeed, the Wehrmacht is nervously shuffling around it's Panzers along the border, itching to pounce, just waiting for the order...
 

VonMudra

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Are there any plans to, perhaps, attempt to land a couple infantry diviisons in Norway at the start of the war- say, moving them by transport from Murmansk to Narvik, then marching south? It would be a neat little adventure, not requiring much in the way of resources, and could completly change the balance of power in Norway.

I just would feel bad if you don’t help brave Norway at this point. x3
 

roverS3

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Are there any plans to, perhaps, attempt to land a couple infantry diviisons in Norway at the start of the war- say, moving them by transport from Murmansk to Narvik, then marching south? It would be a neat little adventure, not requiring much in the way of resources, and could completly change the balance of power in Norway.
I just would feel bad if you don’t help brave Norway at this point. x3
Interesting idea, but we don't really have enough transports for that... We have only 2 TPs, one in the Baltic, and one in the Black Sea. Maybe we should move the Baltic one to Murmansk? We do have a Mtn Corps available there, so if the Germans ever make it to Kirkenes, we can definitely strike. Of course we could always start building a transport.
On the other hand, I do have a surprise operation planned, but I won't tell you what it is now, and I can't confirm nor deny that I need that transport in the Baltic for it, you'll have to find out what it is when the Germans attack...it's a bit risky, maybe pointless, but it would grab German Attention.
There is also another military option to help Norway, but I'll stay quiet on that one too...

Air is getting dense and heavy. You can feel the rising tension on the border.
Hi there @Urgat, glad to have you join the conversation so close to the start of the GPW.

And yes, the air is heavy with dread and anticipation... but first... there will be a VVS update...
 

Finshades

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The Italians are running out of time in North Africa at a remarkable speed, but they seem to be making progress again. I have no doubt that your assessment is correct and the Allies will eventually be able to establish a dominant position in terms of naval and air units in the Med, the only question is how much damage can the Italian army there (with their expeditionary German HArm friends) do before that. If they can push to Suez and beyond, Italy may yet prevail. But if they fail to seize Suez, the Allied naval power will be able to starve them of supplies to the point where they will look as the French do now. An airborne invasion of Malta would also tip the balance in Axis favour, for a time at least, but it would be of limited utility if the Italian Air Force is crippled (not sure if it is).
 

Bullfilter

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At least that H Arm DAK division is likely to require a lot of supply ... which, as much as any forces on the ground, was the great determinant of those key ebbs and flows across North Africa. Let’s hope the RN can do some real convoy strangling in the Med.
 

roverS3

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If they can push to Suez and beyond, Italy may yet prevail. But if they fail to seize Suez, the Allied naval power will be able to starve them of supplies to the point where they will look as the French do now. An airborne invasion of Malta would also tip the balance in Axis favour, for a time at least, but it would be of limited utility if the Italian Air Force is crippled (not sure if it is).
I'm thinking along the same lines... if Suez and Malta remains in British hands, which really isn't a given, the British will prevail and ultimately destroy the Italian Army in Northern Africa. If one of them falls, things may still be salvaged, if both fall, or the Italians get to Iraq, the Allies will be out of the Med for for the rest of the war (or until the US mount operation Torch). This would mean that Turkey becomes more likely to join the Axis, and that Italy can concentrate on reconquering East Africa, and putting more pressure on the Red Army.
The state of the Italian Air Force is unclear, they didn't seem to manage to stop British bombing when it was in range of Tobruch Air Base, but the bombers had escorts, and were lightly damaged from a couple of Air Battles, so most likely the Italians were conserving supplies or holding back to strike at un-escorted bombers. There are a lot of British Wings in the Area, I count at least 5 CAG, 5 Tac, 2 Ftr, 3 Int, and 4 CAS in Arabia, Northern Africa, and the Eastern Med... of course, these are not optimally based, but the RAF manages to bomb the Italian spearhead several times a day. Now, if I was them, I'd just use those Tacs to Log-bomb their supply lines and watch them grind to a halt, but of course the AI is flying Ground Attack missions... One advantage is that the Italian losses must be enormous compared to the British ones, even when a battle isn't happening hundreds of Tacs are bombing large groups of men and machines in open terrain, in nice summer weather, several times per day... so hundreds of kils every, single, day, that's got to hurt.

At least that H Arm DAK division is likely to require a lot of supply ... which, as much as any forces on the ground, was the great determinant of those key ebbs and flows across North Africa. Let’s hope the RN can do some real convoy strangling in the Med.
Yes, I believe supply will be the determining factor here... British bombardments and the long battle for the city of Alexandria must have destroyed a good bit of infrastructure, and from what I could see occasionally tagging to the UK since we've had 8-10 spies there, the Italian force in the area is positively huge, with Italian Light Tanks and German Heavy Tanks, and a lot of Infantry. The Heavy tanks haven't even gotten into the fight yet as the Infantry is moving faster than them, the battle for Alexandria was Infantry vs Infantry even though the Italians had Light Tanks one province away from the fight. This new Italian blitzkrieg is exemplified by Infantry routing the enemy through vastly superior numbers and constant rotation of forces, while the Tanks push up the rear, and occasionally push a battle over the edge when it's been going on for days already... Let's see just how good Italy's convoys and logistics networks is... and how bad the UK is at blockading it....
 
27th of June 1941, 'Chetyre', A visual resume of the VVS and it's deployment.

roverS3

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The 27th of June 1941, Vologda, 6,4°C, 1pm Moscow Time,

Not to be outdone by the 'Dva's comprehensive Red Army posters, 'Chteyre' decided to make his own series of graphic displays, to give everyone in the Secret Committee a better understanding of the Soviet Union's Aerial capabilities. The results seem just as informative as those from 'Dva's posters last month. A single large poster gives a look into our aeroplanes and how they are grouped into Aviation Corps.
AviationDivisions-min.png

Included in the report is the brand new Yak-7 design. Wanting to show he could also design a great fighter, with the field dominated by Lavochkin designs, Yakovlev threw his hat in the ring with the rather excellent Yak-7, with both a two-seat trainer variant and a single-seat Air Superiority Fighter variant. The VVS was so pleased with the demonstration flights that it ordered all of the LaGG-3's to be replaced with the Yak-7.


Besides this, two maps were prepared showing the current deployment of VVS forces around our Western border. First, Fighter coverage:

FightersMap41-06-27-min.jpg

As you can see the border with Germany is covered by three Fighter Corps. 3, and soon 4 more Fighter Corps remain in reserve in the Moskva area.

Then, bomber coverage including both Assault Corps and conventional Bombardment Corps:
BombersMap41-06-27-min.jpg

Assault Corps coverage is a bit patchy because of their short range, and a shortage of space on Air Bases close enough to the border. Air base expansion mostly happened further to the East, especially along the upgraded river lines, where there is space for many more Aeroplanes than we currently have. One Assault Corps remains in reserve in
Moskva Air Base.

Now, we can anxiously await the coming onslaught with the assurance that our comrades in the air have the best Aeroplanes the Soviet Union can offer, and that they are ready to strike, close to the border.

I'm going to look some more at those Yak-7 plans,

Greetings,

'Odin'