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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

jebmagruder

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In real life, the country of Chechnya has had an unfortunate history filled with warfare and destruction. But perhaps things could have gone differently for the Chechens. I've messed around with my installation of VIP to add a Chechen nation, along with an Ossetian state(I had to use HOI2 style flags and shields, which hopefully won't look too weird). I then released them along with other nations in the Caucasus, and Crimea just for the heck of it. I'll see where I can take Chechnya for the next 100 years. I also messed around with the AI in the hopes that Caucasian nations would be fairly belligerent to each other.

344px-Flag_of_the_Chechen_Republic_of_Ichkeria_(with_COA).svg.png


In the year 1836, the Russian Empire's hold on the nations of the Caucasus was suddenly lost. For the rest of that year, conflict continued to flare up as many ethnic groups challenged each other for territory. By early 1837, things had settled down, although not to everyone's satisfaction. Further conflict in the Caucasus was sure to erupt.

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In the midst of this, the Muslims in Chechnya not only established a state in Grozny, but divided the Daghestan region of the Caucasus with Azerbaijan, with Chechnya receiving the upper half, and Azerbaijan receiving the lower half. While the Muslims in Eastern Chechnya were soon assimilated into the Chechen society, There was still a significant population of Armenian and Russian Orthodox Christians, almost 1/3rd of the population and the majority of the population in the province of Nogai.

Political change also occurred in the new Chechen state. The decentralized traditional clan structure would be impossible to abolish, but a central monarchy was established, based in Grozny. A central Chechen state was seen as essential, and the monarchy hoped to westernize the country without destroying Chechen tradition. The first step of this progress was to introduce a literacy campaign and standardize the Chechen language.

At present, Chechnya lacked a proper standing army, or even a militia for the time being, just about 7 manpower from a soldier POP in Kizlyar. The economy was weak, but oil reserves would soon emerge as a major resource in the future. Current exports are silk from Kizlyar and livestock from Grozny and Nogai.

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The international situation. All of these states had at least some conflict with other ones, making future conflict inevitable. The major players:

Chechnya: The subject of this AAR. Although lacking territory disputes with neighbors, they have a powerful Russia as a northern neighbor, and a hostile but weak Ossetia to their west. Has significant population of non-Chechens.

Ossetia: Successfully united ethnic Ossetians. Although officially Orthodox, many Ossetians follow Islam. Has obtained a chunk of Georgia's land. Also occupies Georgievsk, which has significant sulphur reserves and is populated mostly by Circassian muslims.

Russia: The Big Bear to the North. Has an alliance with Crimea and Armenia. Distrusts Chechnya and Georgia, and supported Ossetia's effort to take Georgian land. Hopefully they'll be too busy dealing with problems in Europe to worry about the Caucasus.

Azerbaijan: Fellow Muslims, but Shiite as opposed to Sunni. Has claims on Armenian and Persian territory. Gets along well with the Ottoman empire. Perhaps a future ally?

Armenia: Extremely weak Orthodox Christian nation. Claims much of the Eastern Ottoman empire. Accepted being a satellite of Russia in the hopes of deterring a Turkish invasion. Faces potential invasion from Azerbaijan also.

Crimea: A Cossack state and satellite of Russia. No major claims on anyone. I think I screwed up the future Crimean War by releasing them, and have no idea why I decided to do that. I might just make Russia reabsorb them if it makes any weird result for the Crimean war.

Ottoman Empire: Soon to be the sick man of Europe? Busy for the time being with Muhammad Ali's Egypt to the South. Eager to gobble up Armenia, and maybe some more. Dislikes Persia and Russia.

Persia: Will the Shah's modernization efforts succeed? A potentially powerful nation to the south, who might just go and invade Azerbaijan. Untrustworthy Shiites.

Let's see how this AAR turns out...
 

Davisx3m

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Ohhh Interesting :D
 

Brian Roastbeef

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Looks very interesting. It'll be a difficult challenge and should make for a good read.

You might want to ask a mod to rearrange your title for you though, as it appears on the front page as "..." Not a really big deal, though.
 

likk9922

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This will be awesome if you play it right. As previously mentioned, the small population makes things even harder on you...

Good luck, though. :D
 

jebmagruder

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A Chechen history from 1837 to 1842​


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Chechnya's budget was under serious strain. Even though the King placed very high taxes on the peasants, and reluctant taxed his fellow aristocrats, the country lacked the funds to maintain a militia or even a fully funded police force. Despite this, the education budget was still fully funded, in the hopes that an educated population would lead to industrialized agriculture.

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The King found the invention of the steam engine to be fascinating, and decided to bring this technology to the Chechen people in the hopes that it would increase the output of livestock and silk.

On a much much different note, the insane chief of the Crimean Cossacks' megalomania soon got the better of him, and he began a military buildup with the intent of conquering Russia. He proclaimed that the Cossack spirit triumph all evil and he would soon be "knocking at the gates of St. Petersburg". His ill-fated attempt to remove the "wicked" czar begun in earnest in January 1839. This war had no impact on Chechnya, apart from the few ethnic Russians who crossed into Russia to join the army, only to completely miss the war.

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The war finished by September, with the "unstoppable" Cossack forces capturing one province and then being completely routed. Czar Nicholas I decided to leave a little bit of land for the Cossacks, just for the heck of it. Hopefully now that Crimea isn't a satellite of Russia, the Crimean war will go more smoothly and won't leave a permanent occupation of the region by France and England.

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As this madness continued, the steam engine was finally brought to Chechnya. The King's next step was to begin a project to translate some Late Enlightenment Philosophical works into Chechen.

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(One can also see that 2.9% of the population are aristocrats, I just changed the Russian farmer POP in Grozny into Circassian aristocrat, which would make sense because every monarchy needs some people in the upper classes.)

As a consequence of the low crime fighting budget, criminal activity flourished in Chechnya. Clan politics were interconnected with this, too. Many of the Teips(clans) were upset at losing their authority to a central government, and unwilling to dismantle the regime, they resorted to forming mafias and exploiting the system for their own gain. The aristocrats in Grozny also exploited their situation. The high taxes levied on the peasants drove many into becoming landless laborers on the farms of the wealthy. The situation for the population was volatile, and conditions were breeding for potential disaster. The high taxes and crime rate boosted the anger of the peasants, and the progressive education let the peasants learn about the Enlightenment and liberal ideas. Both Chechens and Russians embraced the liberal movement, with an estimated 47% of the population in 1840 supporting them.

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At this point, crime infested the entire country, the Russians and Armenians in Nogai were prime targets for exploitation by Chechens, as they lacked affiliation with the Teip that protects many Chechens from this exploitation.

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The government decided to open a new museum in Grozny(I forgot to take a snapshot of the actual event). Despite the boost to literacy, the debt had drastically increased, and the country's decreased cash flow would have made it impossible to pay back.

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Even though the country lacked any mines, research began on mechanized mining in the hopes that it would advance overall industrialization of the economy.

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The solution to the debt? Sell off all of the machine parts that the AI bought when I was controlling Crimea.

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Problem solved! But cash reserves are extremely low...

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The situation in Nogai had reached the point where Russians began to flee the country, attracted to the promise of a better life in America. If this continues, the effects may lead to decreased output of livestock and less money, one of the last things Chechnya needs. Not only are people leaving, but the growth rate of the province is negative.

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By 1842, Orthodox Christians made up 23.6% of the population, and 68.5% of the population is Liberal, as opposed to 32% Christian and 0% liberal 5 years before. Russians, Chechens, and Armenians were unified in their desire to see the removal of the monarchy. The air was ripe for revolution.

And so, what does everyone think I should go with?

1. Stick with the monarchy, but actually fund crime fighting(sticking with conservative might be necessary because of the need for tariffs, but I don't think I'll be able to get the militancy of the Russians down and stop them from emigrating this way)
2. Go for a liberal democracy (problem with a liberal government is that I won't be able to have the necessary tariffs to have a balanced budget).
3. Anarcho-liberal dictatorship (I've been leaning toward this one, still has the tariff problem, but I can assimilate the Armenians and some of the Russians with the full-citizenship policy, potentially eliminating the emigration problem because Circassian is a short-range culture).
4. Let the POP in Grozny revolt and see what happens(would result in 2 or 3?)

Would it be possible for me to end up getting immigrants from other parts of Europe? I had a game as Georgia where I got a huge amount of North Germans in one province for no reason, and I was an anarcho-liberal dictatorship when that happened. One of my main goals is getting more people into the country so I can export more silk and livestock and get more money.
 

Enewald

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1.

And try to get a lot of rich immigrants. :D

Poor poor farmers of Chechenia! :eek:
 

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Three or four. The peasants are in need of a change! :p
 

unmerged(84988)

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Four, Revolution! Also, I noticed at the begining, the pie charts were somewhat arbitrary. I assume you modded them?
 

Alexey Romanov

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Revolt! An aristocratic King of Chechnya would be unlikely to care about his poor Russian and Armenian subjects.
 

jebmagruder

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A Chechen history from 1842 to 1847​


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In 1842, the radical wing of the liberals had decided to overthrow the King. Forming a council of many liberal politicians, they began to hold power. Fearing repercussions from reactionaries, and the military in particular, they decided to place the King's young nephew in power, to give a curtain for their actual regime. Their claim was that they were forming a temporary government before a transition to democracy. Many liberals protested this new arrangement, claiming that it was merely opportunists in power. Ethnic Chechens, who the movement would depend on for a power base, were also turned off. The new regime quickly decided to undertake action that would hopefully cement their power.

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Actual funding for the militsii(police) began. Within the council, this issue was intensely debated. Many felt that it was a waste of money, and considering the country's absurdly tiny cash reserves and cash flow, money was of the utmost importance. Otherwise, this measure failed to have any effect. The militsii did not have enough money to properly police anything, and continued to extort money from citizens. The bandits they were supposed to be fighting continued to rob and kidnap citizens. The wealthy could afford bodyguards to defend themselves, and with high-paying work being attractive, the remaining honest policemen flocked to the private security industry.

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The next action was to sell off the country's stockpile of arms for money. With no proper military, or even enough manpower to field a full division, arms purchases could wait for the future.

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At this point, the Armenian community in Chechnya was assimilated into mainstream Chechen society. It was hoped that the full-citizenship policy would also lead to the assimilation of ethnic Russians and even attract immigrants. As it turned out, neither of this wishes came true. The Russians were too numerous to be assimilated, and few Europeans wanted to come to a country that was in the middle of a political crisis and full of banditry. The more pressing concern was that the reactionary movement had reached its peak, with the support of almost 3/4ths of the population, with regular conservatives the other 1/4th.

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The council continued to build the economy, and it was hoped that increased commerce research could increase the nation's cash flow.

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By the end of 1842, the citizens of Grozny had been persuaded toward anarcho-liberal ideas. The country had stabilized to some degree, although reactionary politics were still very much prevalent within the military.

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When the military wasn't busy with reactionary activism, they decided to go with Jomini's military model. As the country lacked any actual divisions of men, there was no real impact from this decision.

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Commerce research continues. In the years 1843 and 1844, things were quiet. Tensions were simmering as opposed to boiling, and economic expansion had caused some hope for the future. For the moment, things seemed to have worked out.

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With the military continuing it's threats of returning the monarchy to power, the council decided to completely disband the professional military. They decided that an army was unneeded, in the event of war, a sudden draft of men would be a preferable option. The army did not fight this disbandment, and the disillusioned soldiers returned to their homes. While some went into banditry, the growing economy was able to absorb most of the soldiers. Many of them managed to find work harvesting silk. With the sudden influx of workers, profits from silk exports were extremely beneficial to the economy.

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The nation was still low on money, but the council decided to commission a proper Chechen composer and export Chechen music. The rest of Europe began to enjoy musical exports from Chechnya and the music of the Caucasus.

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At some point, Russia and the Ottoman Empire went to war. I presume it was due to Russia invading Crimea a second time and grabbing more of its provinces.

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The Ottoman army had smashed its way into Bersarabia and Odessa, but the Russians began to mobilize into captured territory. The front for war was extremely narrow, as Russia lacked an avenue into the Caucasus to attack eastern Turkey. Armenia, although a loyal ally of Russia, was unwilling to fight suicidally against the Turks, and did not participate in the war.

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The Russian steamroller then plowed their way back toward Ottoman territory, erasing any gains the Turks had made. The war then stalemated at the prewar borders.

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Seizing advantage of an empty Mesopotamia, Persia decided to attack the Turks(I took control of them briefly to do this).

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Meanwhile, the council decided to continue to westernize Chechen culture, bringing in the Romanticist movement into Chechnya.

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The extent of Persia's gains. Persia did not have an alliance with Russia and so the effectiveness of a joint war against the Ottomans was limited. Persia's recent elevation to independent nation status(I modded the save to do this, as a modernized Persia would be hopefully be influential in the Caucasus later on) could perhaps lead to a modernized military that could take on the Turks at a later date. Persia was technically in a state of war with France due to a GOI, but no French troops ever arrived.

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Eventually, a white peace was signed between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Russia had been triumphant to some degree, and was able to forge an alliance with Georgia.

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The extent of the Turkish counter-attack into Persia. Soon after, a white peace was signed between the two.

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Industrial research continued. Chechen agricultural output had increased immensely, even with the loss of labor due to ethnic emigration. Chechnya's economic growth had been significant. Cash reserves had again deteriorated due to an incompetent AI, but the economic outlook for Chechnya was bright.
 

Enewald

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And chechenia just invents new things, while the big three around you keep fighting and fighting. Good plan. :D
 

jebmagruder

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A Chechen history from 1848 to 1853​


1848 was a year of revolution in Europe, and Chechnya was among the nations that faced revolution. As opposed to the revolts by the general population in other European nations, Chechnya's revolution occurred due to political fighting among the elite.

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On January 2nd, 1848, the head of the Chechen governing council announced that full voting rights would be allowed for all citizens, and that the new form of government would be a Constitutional Monarchy. Certainly a radical measure for the time, but the reality was that the new voting stations were merely locations for the new president's thugs to imprison Royalists, Conservatives, and even non-radical Liberals. Chechnya's standing in the world plummeted with this new dictatorship, and Reactionary backlash seemed increasingly likely.

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Striving for a middle path against the threat of counter-revolution or radical dictatorship, the Levyi(Liberal) movement was able to restore a true democracy. The president was overthrown and imprisoned by the new government, while amnesty was declared for all political prisoners. The Levyi Parti was able to win the support of the oppressed peasants in Grozny, and would become the main base of support for the liberals.

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Europe faces revolution and warfare

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The new Chechen government especially kept their eyes focused on the revolutions occurring in Italy and Hungary. The Chechens gave their fully support to the revolutionaries, but Chechnya did not even have any money that could go toward the efforts of the revolutionaries, or even the ability to make a difference. While some Chechens desired to go off on their own to join these struggles, few were able to do so due to Russia being an ally of the Austrians. A very small number of Chechens managed to go abroad and fight in Italy, going by sea from Georgia, and an even smaller number managed to return.

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With Hungary's defeat, Austria could focus all resources on defeating the rebellious Italians and succeeded in March 1850. Chechnya's revolution had been the only revolution in 1848 to successfully introduce a successful change of government, and the lack of a constitutional monarchy also made it stand out from other nations in Europe.

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In order to cement Chechen democracy and increase plurality, Ideological Thought was researched. The Chechen government still desired migrants from the rest of Europe to boost the Chechen population and agricultural output, and it was hoped that a successful democracy would be a good pull factor.

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Also in an attempt to boost the population growth rate, modern medicine from Europe began to be imported.

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A new presidential election was announced. With the conservative movement still divided between reactionary royalists and traditional conservatives who wanted to work within the new system. It therefore seemed likely that the Levyi Parti would win the upcoming 1853 elections.


Next week: Crimean War!


Should the Chechens intervene or not? Obviously, there's only one side to join with, unless I really want to see Chechnya get overrun and butchered by the world's 2nd most powerful military. In the Caucasus, the alliances appear to be the Ottoman Empire, Crimea, and Azerbaijan up against an alliance of Russia, Armenia and Persia.
 
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