France being gimped is neither a historical input (they had more stuff) nor a historical output (they were not overrun by German superior numbers across the front in late 1939). An output without the historical input is not historical, and that's not a matter of opinion. History did not ignore causality, and that *is* what you're suggesting with the above.
The problem here is that you're getting too specific and essentially assuming your conclusion on the output. The desired output is that Germany beats France in 1940. Exactly how that happens is relevant, but less relevant. Obviously the closer the game gets to representing the historical means of victory, the better, but when it matters (i.e. when the game is proceeding historically and the player is not intervening ahistorically) the crucial issue is whether France falls, not precisely how it does.
I am also not suggesting we ignore causality. For some reason you just can't understand prioritization. I clearly spelled out that under my preferred approach, you start with historical inputs to the extent possible. This will necessarily "ignore" a lot of causality because game mechanics do not represent the entire universe of causes to each historical event, and they cannot represent that because the entire universe of causes is unknown. So you're already starting with approximation and abstraction. The difference between you and me is that I think that's perfectly OK, whereas you seem to think it's some sort of Pandora's Box, binary scenario where the second you open up the slightest bit of uncertainty, the whole system gets thrown out the window.
Then, to the extent that historical results are not reached due to limitations in AI, mechanics, etc., you tweak the inputs. Not to make them entirely ahistorical, because that means the real issue is with your mechanics and so you should focus on fixing those, but when the mechanics are "close enough" you can make the historical inputs "close enough" too, in order to get historical outputs. And, since we're discussing historical outputs on a more general level, they don't need to be exact. Japan just needs to stall out in China without player intervention. It doesn't matter the exact provinces where they stall out.
In a normal HOI 4 game Bhutan will never produce a nuke during 1936-1948 right now, so I don't see the issue. If they somehow manage to grab more territory + people, it's somewhat more plausible, but still unlikely (and this still holds in the game, nukes take a lot of IC). If they somehow take 2/3 of the world having nukes stops being implausible at all compared to the rest of the scenario at that point.
Sure, I just want balance where that sort of thing isn't possible without exploits. It's too absurd. And before you ask, no there isn't some absolute rule on what's "too absurd." And before you say it, no that doesn't mean we throw up our hands in despair and decide that anything goes. The world isn't binary like that.
Standards in the context we are using them don't work that way. If your threshold for acceptability changes this way, it does not conform to a standard at all.
When a standard is "we only accept scores of 70 or higher to pass the course" or "you must have scored at least X on exam to be considered when applying", that is not a judgment call.
Similarly, the standard actually used in HOI 4 is that history is the theme. Conforming to historical outcomes is not, and neither is conforming to historical capabilities. There's no basis for randomly making exceptions. There is some consistent basis for denying Bhutan nukes from a gameplay perspective...but the game already does that without needing to self-inconsistently invoke history in the discussion. The rules alone are good enough.
1. We're talking about a judgment call in game design, not some binary rule or some coding question. So no, it's not a threshold problem. There are things that are definitely OK, some that are definitely not, and a decent amount of gray area. It's a question of what you or I want out of the game in terms of experience and what balance targets would work best to design the game around. That's absolutely a judgment call.
2. We're talking about a theoretical standard, obviously not the one that exists, so I'm not sure how that's relevant.
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