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The AI just picks from their list of historical ideas, and most minor countries do not have appropriate idea sets scripted for them. I plan to replace it with a better system when time allows for it.
There is *some* level of context specific choice in there now - for example, Muscovy/Russia won't take expansion early unless they take a port. (Of course, this is not a particularly good reason for not taking expansion as them but still....)
Yeah, the AI also tries to pick from its list in a way that will balance across the categories, so if you put 4 mil ideas in a row it'll skip past after picking the first and look for adm/dip. The system isn't great, but reworking it will be such a major balance change that I'm not willing to do it until I'm sure I have time to get it right.